Modeling Exposure-Driven Adverse Event Time Courses in Oncology Exemplified by Afatinib

Models were developed to characterize the relationship between afatinib exposure and diarrhea and rash/acne adverse event (AE) trajectories, and their predictive ability was assessed. Based on pooled data from seven phase II/III clinical studies including 998 patients, mixed‐effects models for ordered categorical data were applied to describe daily AE severity. Clinical trial simulation aided by trial execution models was used for internal and external model evaluation. The final exposure‐safety model consisted of longitudinal logistic regression models with first‐order Markov elements for both AEs. Drug exposure was included as daily area under the concentration‐time curve (AUC), and drug effects on the AEs were correlated. Clinical trial simulation allowed adequate prediction of maximum AE grades and AE severity time courses but overestimated the proportion of AE‐dependent dose reductions and discontinuations. Both diarrhea and rash/acne were correlated with afatinib exposure. The developed modeling framework allows a prospective comparison of dosing strategies and study designs with respect to safety.

dOFV distributions: a new diagnostic for the adequacy of parameter uncertainty in nonlinear mixed-effects models applied to the bootstrap

Knowledge of the uncertainty in model parameters is essential for decision-making in drug development. Contrarily to other aspects of nonlinear mixed effects models (NLMEM), scrutiny towards assumptions around parameter uncertainty is low, and no diagnostic exists to judge whether the estimated uncertainty is appropriate. This work aims at introducing a diagnostic capable of assessing the appropriateness of a given parameter uncertainty distribution. The new diagnostic was applied to case bootstrap examples in order to investigate for which dataset sizes case bootstrap is appropriate for NLMEM. The proposed diagnostic is a plot comparing the distribution of differences in objective function values (dOFV) of the proposed uncertainty distribution to a theoretical Chi square distribution with degrees of freedom equal to the number of estimated model parameters. The uncertainty distribution was deemed appropriate if its dOFV distribution was overlaid with or below the theoretical distribution. The diagnostic was applied to the bootstrap of two real data and two simulated data examples, featuring pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models and datasets of 20–200 individuals with between 2 and 5 observations on average per individual. In the real data examples, the diagnostic indicated that case bootstrap was unsuitable for NLMEM analyses with around 70 individuals. A measure of parameter-specific “effective” sample size was proposed as a potentially better indicator of bootstrap adequacy than overall sample size. In the simulation examples, bootstrap confidence intervals were shown to underestimate inter-individual variability at low sample sizes. The proposed diagnostic proved a relevant tool for assessing the appropriateness of a given parameter uncertainty distribution and as such it should be routinely used.

Population pharmacokinetic drug-drug interaction pooled analysis of existing data for rifabutin and HIV PIs

OBJECTIVES

Extensive but fragmented data from existing studies were used to describe the drug-drug interaction between rifabutin and HIV PIs and predict doses achieving recommended therapeutic exposure for rifabutin in patients with HIV-associated TB, with concurrently administered PIs.

METHODS

Individual-level data from 13 published studies were pooled and a population analysis approach was used to develop a pharmacokinetic model for rifabutin, its main active metabolite 25-O-desacetyl rifabutin (des-rifabutin) and drug-drug interaction with PIs in healthy volunteers and patients who had HIV and TB (TB/HIV).

RESULTS

Key parameters of rifabutin affected by drug-drug interaction in TB/HIV were clearance to routes other than des-rifabutin (reduced by 76%-100%), formation of the metabolite (increased by 224% in patients), volume of distribution (increased by 606%) and distribution to the peripheral compartment (reduced by 47%). For des-rifabutin, clearance was reduced by 35%-76% and volume of distribution increased by 67%-240% in TB/HIV. These changes resulted in overall increased exposure to rifabutin in TB/HIV patients by 210% because of the effects of PIs and 280% with ritonavir-boosted PIs.

CONCLUSIONS

Given together with non-boosted or ritonavir-boosted PIs, rifabutin at 150 mg once daily results in similar or higher exposure compared with rifabutin at 300 mg once daily without concomitant PIs and may achieve peak concentrations within an acceptable therapeutic range. Although 300 mg of rifabutin every 3 days with boosted PI achieves an average equivalent exposure, intermittent doses of rifamycins are not supported by current guidelines.

Population pharmacokinetics of edoxaban in patients with symptomatic deep-vein thrombosis and/or pulmonary embolism--the Hokusai-VTE phase 3 study

AIMS

This study characterized the population pharmacokinetics of edoxaban in patients with symptomatic deep-vein thrombosis and/or pulmonary embolism in the Hokusai-VTE phase 3 study. The impact of the protocol-specified 50% dose reductions applied to patients with body weight ≤ 60 kg, creatinine clearance (CL(cr)) of 30 to 50 ml min(-1) or concomitant P-glycoprotein inhibitor on edoxaban exposure was assessed using simulations.

METHODS

The sparse data from Hokusai-VTE, 9531 concentrations collected from 3707 patients, were pooled with data from 13 phase 1 studies. In the analysis, the covariate relationships used for dose reductions were estimated and differences between healthy subjects and patients as well as additional covariate effects of age, race and gender were explored based on statistical and clinical significance.

RESULTS

A linear two-compartment model with first order absorption preceded by a lag time best described the data. Allometrically scaled body weight was included on disposition parameters. Apparent clearance was parameterized as non-renal and renal. The latter increased non-linearly with increasing CL(cr). Compared with healthy volunteers, inter-compartmental clearance and the CL(cr) covariate effect were different in patients (+64.6% and +274%). Asian patients had a 22.6% increased apparent central volume of distribution. The effect of co-administration of P-glycoprotein inhibitors seen in phase 1 could not be confirmed in the phase 3 data. Model-based simulations revealed lower exposure in dose-reduced compared with non-dose-reduced patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The adopted dose-reduction strategy resulted in reduced exposure compared with non-dose-reduced, thereby overcompensating for covariate effects. The clinical impact of these differences on safety and efficacy remains to be evaluated.

Health-economic evaluation of three imaging strategies in patients with suspected colorectal liver metastases: Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI vs. extracellular contrast media-enhanced MRI and 3-phase MDCT in Germany, Italy and Sweden

The purpose of this study was to perform an economic evaluation of hepatocyte-specific Gd-EOB-DTPA enhanced MRI (PV-MRI) compared to extracellular contrast-media-enhanced MRI (ECCM-MRI) and three-phase-MDCT as initial modalities in the work-up of patients with metachronous colorectal liver metastases. The economic evaluation was performed with a decision-tree model designed to estimate all aggregated costs depending on the initial investigation. Probabilities on the need for further imaging to come to a treatment decision were collected through interviews with 13 pairs of each a radiologist and a liver surgeon in Germany, Italy and Sweden. The rate of further imaging needed was 8.6% after initial PV-MRI, 18.5% after ECCM-MRI and 23.5% after MDCT. Considering the cost of all diagnostic work-up, intra-operative treatment changes and unnecessary surgery, a strategy starting with PV-MRI with 959 Euro was cost-saving compared to ECCM-MRI (1,123 Euro) and MDCT (1,044 Euro) in Sweden. In Italy and Germany, PV-MRI was cost-saving compared to ECCM-MRI and had total costs similar to MDCT. In conclusion, our results indicate that PV-MRI can lead to cost savings by improving pre-operative planning and decreasing intra-operative changes. The higher cost of imaging with PV-MRI is offset in such a scenario by lower costs for additional imaging and less intra-operative changes.