Predicting the risk of 7-day readmission in late preterm infants in California: A population-based cohort study

Background and aims

The American Academy of Pediatrics describes late preterm infants, born at 34 to 36 completed weeks' gestation, as at-risk for rehospitalization and severe morbidity as compared to term infants. While there are prediction models that focus on specific morbidities, there is limited research on risk prediction for early readmission in late preterm infants. The aim of this study is to derive and validate a model to predict 7-day readmission.

Methods

This is a population-based retrospective cohort study of liveborn infants in California between January 2007 to December 2011. Birth certificates, maintained by California Vital Statistics, were linked to a hospital discharge, emergency department, and ambulatory surgery records maintained by the California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development. Random forest and logistic regression were used to identify maternal and infant variables of importance, test for association, and develop and validate a predictive model. The predictive model was evaluated for discrimination and calibration.

Results

We restricted the sample to healthy late preterm infants (n = 122,014), of which 4.1% were readmitted to hospital within 7-day after birth discharge. The random forest model with 24 variables had better predictive ability than the 8 variable logistic model with c-statistic of 0.644 (95% confidence interval 0.629, 0.659) in the validation data set and Brier score of 0.0408. The eight predictors of importance length of stay, delivery method, parity, gestational age, birthweight, race/ethnicity, phototherapy at birth hospitalization, and pre-existing or gestational diabetes were used to drive individual risk scores. The risk stratification had the ability to identify an estimated 19% of infants at greatest risk of readmission.

Conclusions

Our 7-day readmission predictive model had moderate performance in differentiating at risk late preterm infants. Future studies might benefit from inclusion of more variables and focus on hospital practices that minimize risk.

Associations Between Smoking and Primary Sjögren Syndrome Classification Using the Sjögren's International Collaborative Clinical Alliance Cohort

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to examine the association of smoking with Primary Sjögren syndrome (pSS) classification and pSS diagnostic test results. We hypothesized that past and current smokers would have lower odds of being classified as having Sjögren syndrome (SS) and lower odds of having abnormal individual SS diagnostic test results compared with nonsmokers.

METHODS

Participants with suspected or established pSS were enrolled into the Sjögren's International Collaborative Clinical Alliance (SICCA) registry and had oral, ocular, and rheumatologic examinations performed; blood and saliva samples collected; and labial salivary gland biopsy examinations performed; they also completed questionnaires at baseline. Logistic regression was used to determine whether smoking status was associated with pSS classification and individual pSS diagnostic test results.

RESULTS

A total of 3514 participants were enrolled in SICCA. A total of 1541 (52.9%) met classification criteria for pSS. Compared with never smokers, current smokers had reduced odds of being classified as having pSS, reduced odds of having a focus score ≥ 1 and serologic positivity for anti-SSA/anti-SSB antibodies, and lower odds of having abnormal signs or test results of dry eye disease. Compared with never smokers, past smokers did not have a statistically significant reduction in odds of being classified as having pSS and of having abnormal individual pSS diagnostic test results.

CONCLUSION

Compared with never smokers, current smokers in the SICCA cohort had lower odds of being classified as having pSS, lower odds of exhibiting abnormal signs and test results for dry eye disease, and lower odds of having a labial salivary gland biopsy supportive of pSS classification. Such negative associations, however, do not suggest that current smoking is of any benefit with respect to pSS.

Does NAFLD mediate the relationship between obesity and type 2 diabetes risk? evidence from the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis (MESA)

PURPOSE

To estimate the effect of obesity on type 2 diabetes (T2DM) risk and evaluate to what extent non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) mediates this association.

METHODS

Data came from 4,522 adults ages 45-84 participating in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis cohort. Baseline obesity was defined using established BMI categories. NAFLD was measured by CT scans at baseline and incident T2DM defined as fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dL or use of diabetes medications.

RESULTS

Over a median 9.1 years of follow-up between 2000 and 2012, 557 new cases of T2DM occurred. After adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, diet and exercise, those with obesity had 4.5 times the risk of T2DM compared to normal weight (hazard ratio [HR] = 4.5, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.0, 5.9). The mediation analysis suggested that NAFLD accounted for ~36% (95% CI: 27, 44) of the effect (direct effect HR = 3.2, 95% CI: 2.3, 4.6; indirect effect through NAFLD, HR = 1.4, 95% CI: 1.3, 1.5).

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest that the association between obesity and T2DM risk is partially explained by the presence of NAFLD. Future studies should evaluate if NAFLD could be an effective target to reduce the effect of obesity on T2DM.

Predicting Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease for Adults Using Practical Clinical Measures: Evidence from the Multi-ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND

Many adults have risk factors for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Screening all adults with risk factors for NAFLD using imaging is not feasible.

OBJECTIVE

To develop a practical scoring tool for predicting NAFLD using participant demographics, medical history, anthropometrics, and lab values.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional.

PARTICIPANTS

Data came from 6194 white, African American, Hispanic, and Chinese American participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis cohort, ages 45-85 years.

MAIN MEASURES

NAFLD was identified by liver computed tomography (≤ 40 Hounsfield units indicating > 30% hepatic steatosis) and data on 14 predictors was assessed for predicting NAFLD. Random forest variable importance was used to identify the minimum subset of variables required to achieve the highest predictive power. This subset was used to derive (n = 4132) and validate (n = 2063) a logistic regression-based score (NAFLD-MESA Index). A second NAFLD-Clinical Index excluding laboratory predictors was also developed.

KEY RESULTS

NAFLD prevalence was 6.2%. The model included eight predictors: age, sex, race/ethnicity, type 2 diabetes, smoking history, body mass index, gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT), and triglycerides (TG). The NAFLD-Clinical Index model excluded GGT and TG. In the NAFLD-MESA model, the derivation set achieved an AUCNAFLD-MESA = 0.83 (95% CI, 0.81 to 0.86), and the validation set an AUCNAFLD-MESA = 0.80 (0.77 to 0.84). The NAFLD-Clinical Index model was AUCClinical = 0.78 [0.75 to 0.81] in the derivation set and AUCClinical = 0.76 [0.72 to 0.80] in the validation set (pBonferroni-adjusted < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The two models are simple but highly predictive tools that can aid clinicians to identify individuals at high NAFLD risk who could benefit from imaging.

Examining if the relationship between BMI and incident type 2 diabetes among middle-older aged adults varies by race/ethnicity: evidence from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

AIMS

Disparities persist on the prevalence of undiagnosed type 2 diabetes in racial/ethnic minorities in the USA. This study evaluated the association between BMI and incident type 2 diabetes risk by racial/ethnic group, to determine whether BMI and presence of type 2 diabetes risk factors may help clinicians better target type 2 diabetes screening.

METHODS

This prospective cohort analysis included 5659 adults free of type 2 diabetes at baseline from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), a population-based cohort (2000-2011). BMI was measured at baseline and time-updated at subsequent visits. Incident type 2 diabetes was defined as fasting glucose ≥ 7.0 mmol/l, or use of any diabetes medications.

RESULTS

The mean (sd) age was 62 (10) years and 42% of participants were white, 26% African American, 20% Hispanic and 12% Chinese American. During follow-up, 696 (12%) new type 2 diabetes cases were observed. In age- and sex-adjusted models, in the presence of one or more type 2 diabetes risk factors (the most common scenario), a 10% risk of incident type 2 diabetes was observed at a BMI of 21.7 kg/m² [95% confidence interval (CI) 20.1 to 22.8] in Chinese Americans, 23.8 kg/m² (22.7 to 24.9) in Hispanics, 24.7 kg/m² (23.7 to 25.6) in African Americans and 26.2 kg/m² (25.1 to 26.9) in white participants.

CONCLUSIONS

This study supports including BMI and presence of type 2 diabetes risk factors as action points for clinicians to prioritize which adults aged ≥ 45 years should be screened. The application of race/ethnicity-specific BMI thresholds may reduce the disparity of undiagnosed type 2 diabetes observed in minority groups.

Ocular Clinical Signs and Diagnostic Tests Most Compatible With Keratoconjunctivitis Sicca: A Latent Class Approach

PURPOSE

To evaluate the ocular signs and tests for keratoconjunctivitis sicca (KCS) in the absence of a gold standard.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study of participants from the Sjögren's International Collaborative Clinical Alliance (SICCA) registry. Participants had oral/ocular/rheumatologic examinations, blood/saliva samples collected, and salivary gland biopsy. Latent class analysis (LCA) identified clusters of patients based on 3 to 4 predictor variables relating to signs or tests of KCS. The resulting model-based "gold standard" classification formed the basis for estimated sensitivity and specificity associated with these predictors.

RESULTS

A total of 3514 participants were enrolled into SICCA, with 52.9% classified as SS. LCA revealed a best-fit model with 2 groups. For the gold standard-positive group, an abnormal tear breakup time, ocular staining score (OSS), and Schirmer I had a sensitivity of 99.5%, 91.0%, and 47.4%, respectively. For the gold standard-negative group, an abnormal tear breakup time, OSS, and Schirmer I had a specificity of 32.0%, 84.0%, and 88.5%, respectively. OSS components (fluorescein and lissamine staining), exhibited a sensitivity of 82.6% and 90.5%, respectively, in the gold standard-positive group, whereas these signs in the gold standard-negative group had a specificity of 88.8% and 73.0%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

OSS and its components (fluorescein and lissamine staining) differentiated 2 groups from each other better than other KCS parameters and had relatively high sensitivity and specificity.

Insurance impacts survival for children, adolescents, and young adults with bone and soft tissue sarcomas

Background

While racial/ethnic survival disparities have been described in pediatric oncology, the impact of income has not been extensively explored. We analyzed how public insurance influences 5‐year overall survival (OS) in young patients with sarcomas.

Methods

The University of California San Francisco Cancer Registry was used to identify patients aged 0‐39 diagnosed with bone or soft tissue sarcomas between 2000 and 2015. Low‐income patients were defined as those with no insurance or Medicaid, a means‐tested form of public insurance. Survival curves were computed using the Kaplan‐Meier method and compared using log‐rank tests and Cox models. Causal mediation was used to assess whether the association between public insurance and mortality is mediated by metastatic disease.

Results

Of 1106 patients, 39% patients were classified as low‐income. Low‐income patients were more likely to be racial/ethnic minorities and to present with metastatic disease (OR 1.96, 95% CI 1.35‐2.86). Low‐income patients had significantly worse OS (61% vs 71%). Age at diagnosis and extent of disease at diagnosis were also independent predictors of OS. When stratified by extent of disease, low‐income patients consistently had significantly worse OS (localized: 78% vs 84%, regional: 64% vs 73%, metastatic: 23% vs 30%, respectively). Mediation analysis indicated that metastatic disease at diagnosis mediated 15% of the effect of public insurance on OS.

Conclusions

Low‐income patients with bone and soft tissue sarcomas had decreased OS regardless of disease stage at presentation. The mechanism by which insurance status impacts survival requires additional investigation, but may be through reduced access to care.

Impaired Fetal Environment and Gestational Age: What Is Driving Mortality in Neonates With Critical Congenital Heart Disease?

Background

Infants with critical congenital heart disease (CCHD) are more likely to be small for gestational age (SGA) or born to mothers with maternal placental syndrome. The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between maternal placental syndrome, SGA, and gestational age (GA) on 1‐year mortality in infants with CCHD.

Methods and Results

In a population‐based administrative database of all live‐born infants in California (2007–2012) we identified all infants with CCHD without chromosomal anomalies. Our primary predictor was an impaired fetal environment (IFE), defined as presence of maternal placental syndrome or SGA. We calculated hazard ratios to quantify the association between different components of IFE and 1‐year mortality and conducted a causal mediation analysis to assess GA at birth as a mediator. We identified 6863 infants with CCHD. IFE was present in 25.1%. Infants with IFE were more likely to die than infants without IFE (16.6% versus 11.1%; hazard ratios 1.55, 95% CI 1.34–1.78). Only SGA (hazard ratios 1.76, 95% CI 1.50–2.05) and placental abruption (hazard ratios 1.70, 95% CI 1.17–2.48) were significantly associated with mortality; preeclampsia and gestational hypertension had no significant association with mortality. The mediation analysis showed that 32.8% (95% CI 24.9–47.0%) of the relationship between IFE and mortality is mediated through GA.

Conclusions

IFE is a significant contributor to outcomes in the CCHD population. SGA and placental abruption are the main drivers of postnatal mortality while other maternal placental syndrome components had much less of an impact. Only one third of the effect between IFE and mortality is mediated through GA.

Natural History and Predictors of Progression to Sjögren's Syndrome Among Participants of the Sjögren's International Collaborative Clinical Alliance Registry

OBJECTIVE

To explore changes in the phenotypic features of Sjögren's syndrome (SS), and in SS status among participants in the Sjögren's International Collaborative Clinical Alliance (SICCA) registry over a 2-3-year interval.

METHODS

All participants in the SICCA registry who were found to have any objective measures of salivary hypofunction, dry eye, focal lymphocytic sialadenitis in minor salivary gland biopsy, or anti-SSA/SSB antibodies were recalled over a window of 2 to 3 years after their baseline examinations to repeat all clinical examinations and specimen collections to determine whether there was any change in phenotypic features and in SS status.

RESULTS

As of September 15, 2013, a total of 3,514 participants had enrolled in SICCA, and among 3,310 eligible, 771 presented for a followup visit. Among participants found to have SS using the 2012 American College of Rheumatology (ACR) classification criteria, 93% again met the criteria after 2 to 3 years, and this proportion was 89% when using the 2016 ACR/European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) criteria. Among those who did not meet ACR or ACR/EULAR criteria at baseline, 9% and 8%, respectively, had progressed and met them at followup. Those with hypergammaglobulinemia and hypocomplementemia at study entry were, respectively, 4 and 6 times more likely to progress to SS by ACR criteria than those without these characteristics (95% confidence interval 1.5-10.1 and 1.8-20.4, respectively).

CONCLUSION

While there was stability over a 2-3-year period of both individual phenotypic features of SS and of SS status, hypergammaglobulinemia and hypocomplementemia at study entry were predictive of progression to SS.

Health-related quality of life and depression among participants in the Sjögren's International Collaborative Clinical Alliance registry

OBJECTIVE

To examine health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and depression among participants in an international Sjögren's syndrome (SS) registry, comparing those with and without SS.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study of participants in the Sjögren's International Collaborative Clinical Alliance (SICCA) registry. The 2016 American College of Rheumatology/European League Against Rheumatism SS classification criteria were used to determine disease status. HRQoL was assessed using the Short Form 12, version 2 Health Survey to derive scores for physical component summary (PCS) and mental component summary (MCS). Depression was assessed using the 9-Item Patient Health Questionnaire. Multivariate linear and logistic regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of HRQoL and depression while controlling for potential confounders.

RESULTS

Among 2401 SICCA participants who had symptoms of dry eyes and dry mouth, 1051 had SS (44%) and 1350 did not (56%). After controlling for confounders, when compared with non-SS participants, those with SS had better PCS (p<0.001, β=2.43, 95% CI 1.57 to 3.29), MCS (p=0.002, β=1.37, 95% CI 0.50 to 2.23) and lower adjusted odds of depression (p<0.001, OR 0.67, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.81). Other significant predictors of HRQoL and depression included employment, country of residence and use of medication with anticholinergic effect or for management of SS-related signs and symptoms.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that among symptomatic patients, having a diagnosis of SS may be associated with better emotional and psychological well-being compared with patients without a diagnosis. Having a definitive diagnosis of SS may encourage patients to obtain a better understanding of their disease and have coping mechanisms in place to better manage their symptoms.

Genome-Wide Association Analysis Reveals Genetic Heterogeneity of Sjögren's Syndrome According to Ancestry

OBJECTIVE

The Sjögren's International Collaborative Clinical Alliance (SICCA) is an international data registry and biorepository derived from a multisite observational study of participants in whom genotyping was performed on the Omni2.5M platform and who had undergone deep phenotyping using common protocol-directed methods. The aim of this study was to examine the genetic etiology of Sjögren's syndrome (SS) across ancestry and disease subsets.

METHODS

We performed genome-wide association study analyses using SICCA subjects and external controls obtained from dbGaP data sets, one using all participants (1,405 cases, 1,622 SICCA controls, and 3,125 external controls), one using European participants (585, 966, and 580, respectively), and one using Asian participants (460, 224, and 901, respectively) with ancestry adjustments via principal components analyses. We also investigated whether subphenotype distributions differ by ethnicity, and whether this contributes to the heterogeneity of genetic associations.

RESULTS

We observed significant associations in established regions of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), IRF5, and STAT4 (P = 3 × 10^-42 , P = 3 × 10^-14 , and P = 9 × 10^-10 , respectively), and several novel suggestive regions (those with 2 or more associations at P < 1 × 10^-5 ). Two regions have been previously implicated in autoimmune disease: KLRG1 (P = 6 × 10^-7 [Asian cluster]) and SH2D2A (P = 2 × 10^-6 [all participants]). We observed striking differences between the associations in Europeans and Asians, with high heterogeneity especially in the MHC; representative single-nucleotide polymorphisms from established and suggestive regions had highly significant differences in the allele frequencies in the study populations. We showed that SSA/SSB autoantibody production and the labial salivary gland focus score criteria were associated with the first worldwide principal component, indicative of higher non-European ancestry (P = 4 × 10^-15 and P = 4 × 10^-5 , respectively), but that subphenotype differences did not explain most of the ancestry differences in genetic associations.

CONCLUSION

Genetic associations with SS differ markedly according to ancestry; however, this is not explained by differences in subphenotypes.

2016 American College of Rheumatology/European League Against Rheumatism Classification Criteria for Primary Sjögren's Syndrome: A Consensus and Data-Driven Methodology Involving Three International Patient Cohorts

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate an international set of classification criteria for primary Sjögren's syndrome (SS) using guidelines from the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) and the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR). These criteria were developed for use in individuals with signs and/or symptoms suggestive of SS.

METHODS

We assigned preliminary importance weights to a consensus list of candidate criteria items, using multi-criteria decision analysis. We tested and adapted the resulting draft criteria using existing cohort data on primary SS cases and non-SS controls, with case/non-case status derived from expert clinical judgment. We then validated the performance of the classification criteria in a separate cohort of patients.

RESULTS

The final classification criteria are based on the weighted sum of 5 items: anti-SSA/Ro antibody positivity and focal lymphocytic sialadenitis with a focus score of ≥1 foci/4 mm2 , each scoring 3; an abnormal ocular staining score of ≥5 (or van Bijsterveld score of ≥4), a Schirmer's test result of ≤5 mm/5 minutes, and an unstimulated salivary flow rate of ≤0.1 ml/minute, each scoring 1. Individuals with signs and/or symptoms suggestive of SS who have a total score of ≥4 for the above items meet the criteria for primary SS. Sensitivity and specificity against clinician-expert-derived case/non-case status in the final validation cohort were high, i.e., 96% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 92-98%) and 95% (95% CI 92-97%), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Using methodology consistent with other recent ACR/EULAR-approved classification criteria, we developed a single set of data-driven consensus classification criteria for primary SS, which performed well in validation analyses and are well-suited as criteria for enrollment in clinical trials.

Association of Dry Eye Tests With Extraocular Signs Among 3514 Participants in the Sjögren's Syndrome International Registry

PURPOSE

To identify a screening strategy for dry eye patients with a high likelihood of having Sjogren syndrome (SS) through the evaluation of the association of ocular surface tests with the extraocular signs used for the diagnosis of SS.

DESIGN

Multicenter cross-sectional study.

METHODS

The Sjogren's International Clinical Collaborative Alliance (SICCA) registry enrolled 3514 participants with SS or possible SS from 9 international academic sites. Ocular surface evaluation included Schirmer I testing, tear breakup time (TBUT), and staining of the cornea (0-6 points) and conjunctiva (0-6 points). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify predictive factors for (1) histopathologic changes on labial salivary gland (LSG) biopsies (positive = focus score of ≥1 focus/4 mm²) and (2) positive anti-SSA/B serology.

RESULTS

The adjusted odds of having a positive LSG biopsy were significantly higher among those with an abnormal Schirmer I test (adjusted OR = 1.26, 95% CI 1.05-1.51, P = .014) and positive conjunctival staining (for each additional unit of staining 1.46; 95% CI 1.39-1.53, P < .001) or corneal staining (for each additional unit of staining 1.14; 95% CI 1.08-1.21, P < .001). The odds of having a positive serology were significantly higher among those with an abnormal Schirmer I test (adjusted OR = 1.3; 95% CI 1.09-1.54, P = .004) and conjunctival staining (adjusted OR = 1.51; 95% CI 1.43-1.58, P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

In addition to corneal staining, which was associated with a higher likelihood of having a positive LSG biopsy, conjunctival staining and abnormal Schirmer I testing are of critical importance to include when screening dry eye patients for possible SS, as they were associated with a higher likelihood of having a positive LSG biopsy and serology.

2016 American College of Rheumatology/European League Against Rheumatism classification criteria for primary Sjögren's syndrome: A consensus and data-driven methodology involving three international patient cohorts

OBJECTIVES

To develop and validate an international set of classification criteria for primary Sjögren's syndrome (SS) using guidelines from the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) and the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR). These criteria were developed for use in individuals with signs and/or symptoms suggestive of SS.

METHODS

We assigned preliminary importance weights to a consensus list of candidate criteria items, using multi-criteria decision analysis. We tested and adapted the resulting draft criteria using existing cohort data on primary SS cases and non-SS controls, with case/non-case status derived from expert clinical judgement. We then validated the performance of the classification criteria in a separate cohort of patients.

RESULTS

The final classification criteria are based on the weighted sum of five items: anti-SSA/Ro antibody positivity and focal lymphocytic sialadenitis with a focus score of ≥1 foci/4 mm², each scoring 3; an abnormal Ocular Staining Score of ≥5 (or van Bijsterveld score of ≥4), a Schirmer's test result of ≤5 mm/5 min and an unstimulated salivary flow rate of ≤0.1 mL/min, each scoring 1. Individuals with signs and/or symptoms suggestive of SS who have a total score of ≥4 for the above items meet the criteria for primary SS. Sensitivity and specificity against clinician-expert-derived case/non-case status in the final validation cohort were high, that is, 96% (95% CI92% to 98%) and 95% (95% CI 92% to 97%), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Using methodology consistent with other recent ACR/EULAR-approved classification criteria, we developed a single set of data-driven consensus classification criteria for primary SS, which performed well in validation analyses and are well suited as criteria for enrolment in clinical trials.

Inter-grader Agreement of the Ocular Staining Score in the Sjögren's International Clinical Collaborative Alliance (SICCA) Registry

PURPOSE

To determine the intra-observer and inter-observer reliability of a novel ocular staining score among trained ophthalmologists.

DESIGN

Reliability analysis within a prospective, observational, multicenter cohort study.

METHODS

Those enrolled in the National Institutes of Health-funded Sjögren's International Collaborative Clinical Alliance (SICCA) who presented for follow-up at the University of California San Francisco, Aravind Eye Hospital, Johns Hopkins University, and the University of Pennsylvania were included. Study participants were graded using the ocular staining score by at least 2 masked SICCA-trained ophthalmologists. The primary outcome for this study was the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) for the total ocular staining score. ICCs were also calculated for tear break-up time (TBUT) and conjunctival and corneal staining.

RESULTS

Total ocular staining score had an ICC of 0.91 for the right eye (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.85-0.96) and 0.90 for the left eye (95% CI 0.83-0.97). Corneal staining (right eye 0.86, 95% CI 0.76-0.93, left eye 0.90, 95% CI 0.81-0.95) and conjunctival staining (right eye 0.87, 95% CI 0.80-0.93, left eye 0.85, 95% CI 0.75-0.93) demonstrated excellent agreement. The ICC for TBUT was slightly lower (right eye 0.77, 95% CI 0.64-0.89; left eye 0.81, 95% CI 0.68-0.90).

CONCLUSIONS

Previous studies have shown that the ocular staining score is correlated with other diagnostic components of Sjögren syndrome. In this study, we demonstrate high reliability in grading among trained ophthalmologists, completing the validation of this test.

The SSB-positive/SSA-negative antibody profile is not associated with key phenotypic features of Sjögren's syndrome

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether the Sjögren's syndrome B (SSB)-positive/Sjögren's syndrome A (SSA)-negative antibody profile is associated with key phenotypic features of SS.

METHODS

Among registrants in the Sjögren's International Collaborative Clinical Alliance (SICCA) with possible or established SS, we compared anti-SSA/anti-SSB reactivity profiles against concurrent phenotypic features. We fitted logistic regression models to explore the association between anti-SSA/anti-SSB reactivity profile and each key SS phenotypic feature, controlling for potential confounders.

RESULTS

Among 3297 participants, 2061 (63%) had negative anti-SSA/anti-SSB, 1162 (35%) had anti-SSA with or without anti-SSB, and 74 (2%) anti-SSB alone. Key SS phenotypic features were more prevalent and had measures indicative of greater disease activity in those participants with anti-SSA, either alone or with anti-SSB, than in those with anti-SSB alone or negative SSA/SSB serology. These between-group differences were highly significant and not explained by confounding by age, race/ethnicity or gender. Participants with anti-SSB alone were comparable to those with negative SSA/SSB serology in their association with these key phenotypic features. Among SICCA participants classified with SS on the basis of the American-European Consensus Group or American College of Rheumatology criteria, only 2% required the anti-SSB-alone test result to meet these criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of anti-SSB, without anti-SSA antibodies, had no significant association with SS phenotypic features, relative to seronegative participants. The solitary presence of anti-SSB antibodies does not provide any more support than negative serology for the diagnosis of SS. This serological profile should thus be interpreted cautiously in clinical practice and potentially eliminated from future classification criteria.

Active squamous metaplasia of the cervical epithelium is associated with subsequent acquisition of human papillomavirus 16 infection among healthy young women

BACKGROUND

Vulnerability of younger women to human papillomavirus 16 (HPV16) infection has been attributed to the predominance of ectocervical columnar epithelia in this age group. However, squamous metaplastic tissue may be more influential. We examined the extent of ectopy and metaplastic activity as risks for HPV16 acquisition in a prospective cohort.

METHODS

Participants were HPV16 negative at the first two visits. Follow-up occurred every 4 months. Ectopy was quantitatively measured on colpophotographs. We calculated metaplastic rate as the difference in ectopy between visits. Cox proportional hazards models were constructed, adjusting for several covariates.

RESULTS

Analyses included 198 women (mean baseline age 17 years) for 1734 visits. Mean follow-up was 4.4 years. Incident HPV16 was detected in 36 (18%) women. Metaplastic rate between the two visits before HPV16 detection was significantly associated with incident infection (hazard ratio [HR], 1.17; confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.33; P = .02). However, ectopy was not significant, whether measured before or concurrent to HPV16 detection (HR range, 0.99-1.00; CI range, .97-1.02; P range, .47-.65).

CONCLUSIONS

Dynamic metaplasia rather than the sheer extent of ectopy appears to increase risk for incident HPV16 in healthy young women. This in vivo observation is consistent with the HPV life cycle, during which host cell replication and differentiation supports viral replication.

Primary Sjögren's syndrome as a systemic disease: a study of participants enrolled in an international Sjögren's syndrome registry

OBJECTIVE

To study the prevalence of extraglandular manifestations in primary Sjögren's syndrome (SS) among participants enrolled in the Sjögren's International Collaborative Clinical Alliance (SICCA) Registry.

METHODS

A total of 1,927 participants in the SICCA registry were studied, including 886 participants who met the 2002 American-European Consensus Group (AECG) criteria for primary SS, 830 "intermediate" cases who had some objective findings of primary SS but did not meet AECG criteria, and 211 control individuals. We studied the prevalence of immunologic and hematologic laboratory abnormalities, specific rheumatologic examination findings, and physician-confirmed thyroid, liver, and kidney disease, as well as lymphoma among SICCA participants.

RESULTS

Laboratory abnormalities, including hematologic abnormalities, hypergammaglobulinemia, and hypocomplementemia, frequently occurred among primary SS cases and were more common among the intermediate cases than among control participants. Cutaneous vasculitis and lymphadenopathy were also more common among primary SS cases. In contrast, the frequency of physician-confirmed diagnoses of thyroid, liver, and kidney disease and lymphoma was low and only primary biliary cirrhosis was associated with primary SS case status. Rheumatologic and neurologic symptoms were common among all SICCA participants, regardless of case status.

CONCLUSION

Data from the international SICCA registry support the systemic nature of primary SS, manifested primarily in terms of specific immunologic and hematologic abnormalities. The occurrence of other systemic disorders among this cohort is relatively uncommon. Previously reported associations may be more specific to select patient subgroups, such as those referred for evaluation of certain neurologic, rheumatologic, or other systemic manifestations.

Chronic maternal depression is associated with reduced weight gain in latino infants from birth to 2 years of age

BACKGROUND

Latino children are at increased risk for mirconutrient deficiencies and problems of overweight and obesity. Exposures in pregnancy and early postpartum may impact future growth trajectories.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the relationship between prenatal and postnatal maternal depressive symptoms experienced in pregnancy and infant growth from birth to 2 years of age in a cohort of Latino infants.

METHODS

We recruited pregnant Latina mothers at two San Francisco hospitals and followed their healthy infants to 24 months of age. At 6, 12 and 24 months of age, infants were weighed and measured. Maternal depressive symptoms were assessed prenatally and at 4-6 weeks postpartum. Women who had high depressive symptoms at both time periods were defined as having chronic depression. Logistic mixed models were applied to compare growth curves and risk for overweight and underweight based on exposure to maternal depression.

RESULTS

We followed 181 infants to 24 months. At 12 and 24 months, respectively, 27.4% and 40.5% were overweight, and 5.6% and 2.2% were underweight. Exposure to chronic maternal depression was associated with underweight (OR = 12.12, 95%CI 1.86-78.78) and with reduced weight gain in the first 2 years of life (Coef = -0.48, 95% CI -0.94-0.01) compared with unexposed infants or infants exposed to episodic depression (depression at one time point). Exposure to chronic depression was also associated with reduced risk for overweight in the first 2 years of life (OR 0.28, 95%CI 0.03-0.92).

CONCLUSIONS

Exposure to chronic maternal depression in the pre- and postnatal period was associated with reduced weight gain in the first two years of life and greater risk for failure to thrive, in comparison with unexposed infants or those exposed episodically. The infants of mothers with chronic depression may need additional nutritional monitoring and intervention.

A simplified quantitative method for assessing keratoconjunctivitis sicca from the Sjögren's Syndrome International Registry

PURPOSE

To describe, apply, and test a new ocular grading system for assessing keratoconjunctivitis sicca (KCS) using lissamine green and fluorescein.

DESIGN

Prospective, observational, multicenter cohort study.

METHODS

The National Institutes of Health-funded Sjögren's Syndrome International Registry (called Sjögren's International Collaborative Clinical Alliance [SICCA]) is developing standardized classification criteria for Sjögren syndrome (SS) and is creating a biospecimen bank for future research. Eight SICCA ophthalmologists developed a new quantitative ocular grading system (SICCA ocular staining score [OSS]), and we analyzed OSS distribution among the SICCA cohort and its association with other phenotypic characteristics of SS. The SICCA cohort includes participants ranging from possibly early SS to advanced disease. Procedures include sequenced unanesthetized Schirmer test, tear break-up time, ocular surface staining, and external eye examination at the slit lamp. Using statistical analyses and proportional Venn diagrams, we examined interrelationships between abnormal OSS (>or=3) and other characteristics of SS (labial salivary gland [LSG] biopsy with focal lymphocytic sialadenitis and focus score >1 positive anti-SS A antibodies, anti-SS B antibodies, or both).

RESULTS

Among 1208 participants, we found strong associations between abnormal OSS, positive serologic results, and positive LSG focus scores (P < .0001). Analysis of the overlapping relationships of these 3 measures defined a large group of participants who had KCS without other components of SS, representing a clinical entity distinct from the KCS associated with SS.

CONCLUSIONS

This new method for assessing KCS will become the means for diagnosing the ocular component of SS in future classification criteria. We find 2 forms of KCS whose causes may differ.

Impact of the lung allocation score on lung transplantation for pulmonary arterial hypertension

RATIONALE

In 2005, lung allocation for transplantation in the United States changed from a system based on waiting time to a system based on the Lung Allocation Score (LAS).

OBJECTIVES

To study the effect of the LAS on lung transplantation for idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension (IPAH) compared with other major diagnoses.

METHODS

We studied 7,952 adults listed for lung transplantation between 2002 and 2008. Analyses were restricted to patients with IPAH, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and cystic fibrosis (CF). Transplantation, waiting list mortality, and post-transplant mortality were compared between diagnoses for patients listed before and after implementation of the LAS.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

The likelihood of transplantation from the waiting list increased for all diagnoses after implementation of the LAS. Waiting list mortality decreased for every diagnosis, except for IPAH, which remained unchanged. Implementation of the LAS was not associated with changes in post-transplant mortality for any diagnosis. Under the LAS system, patients with IPAH were less likely to be transplanted than patients with IPF (hazard ratio [HR], 0.53; P < 0.001) or CF (HR, 0.49; P < 0.001) and at greater risk of death on the waiting list than patients with COPD (HR, 3.09; P < 0.001) or CF (HR, 1.83; P = 0.025) after adjustment for demographics and transplant type. Post-transplant mortality for IPAH was not statistically different from that of other diagnoses.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementation of the LAS has improved the likelihood of lung transplantation for listed patients with IPAH, but mortality on the waiting list remains high compared with other major diagnoses.

Utilization of TCD screening for primary stroke prevention in children with sickle cell disease

BACKGROUND

In 1998, the Stroke Prevention Trial in Sickle Cell Anemia showed a >90% reduction in stroke rates after blood transfusion therapy in children with sickle cell disease (SCD) identified as high risk with transcranial Doppler ultrasonography (TCD) screening.

METHODS

We studied the utilization of TCD screening in a retrospective cohort of all children with SCD within a large managed care plan from January 1993 to December 2005. Rates of first TCD screening were estimated using life table methods; predictors of TCD were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards regression. Stroke incidence rates were estimated in person-time before (pre-TCD) and after (post-TCD) first TCD.

RESULTS

The average annual rate of TCD screening in 157 children with SCD was 1.8 per 100 person-years pre-1998, 5.0 from January 1, 1998, to December 31, 1999, and 11.4 after 1999. The only independent predictor of TCD screening was proximity to the vascular laboratory. The annualized stroke rate pre-TCD was 0.44 per 100 person-years, compared to 0.19 post-TCD.

CONCLUSIONS

Since the Stroke Prevention Trial in Sickle Cell Anemia, the rate of transcranial Doppler ultrasonography (TCD) screening in sickle cell disease (SCD) has increased sixfold within a large health care plan. Children living farther from a vascular laboratory are less likely to be screened. Increased availability of TCD screening could improve the utilization of this effective primary stroke prevention strategy.

Effect of Replens Gel Used with a Diaphragm on Tests for Human Papillomavirus and Other Lower Genital Tract Infections

OBJECTIVE

Little is known about effects of vaginal lubricants with barrier contraceptives on detection of sexually transmissible infections. We hypothesized that Replens gel used with a diaphragm would neither inhibit human papillomavirus (HPV) detection in cervical samples and chlamydia (CT) and gonorrhea (GC) detection in urine samples, nor affect cervical cytology quality.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

After a clinician-collected cervical sample and a self-collected vaginal sample for HPV detection ("pregel" specimens), women placed a diaphragm containing Replens gel into the vagina. Participants (n = 77) removed the diaphragm after 6 hours and performed vaginal HPV self-sampling at several time points thereafter. Clinicians performed cervical cytology sampling and HPV testing ("postgel" specimens) 24 hours after diaphragm removal. Pregel and postgel specimens were analyzed with and without added SiHa cells (source of defined numbers of HPV16 genomes). HPV was detected by polymerase chain reaction using MY09/11 primers. Urine samples were obtained for CT and GC testing. Proportions of samples testing positive were compared using relative risk (RR) regression models.

RESULTS

Proportions with detectable HPV in the clinician-collected cervical pregel and postgel samples were not statistically different for samples with added SiHa cells (88.3% vs 93.2%, RR = 1.06, 95% confidence interval = 0.96-1.14) or for native HPV infection (32.9% vs 28.2%, RR = 0.87, 95% confidence interval = 0.71-1.06). In self-collected vaginal postgel samples, there was no trend for decreased HPV detection after gel exposure. Gel affected neither urine tests for CT and GC nor cytological quality.

CONCLUSIONS

Recent Replens gel use with a diaphragm does not inhibit cervical HPV testing, urine testing for CT and GC, or cervical cytology quality.

Early age of first sex: a risk factor for HIV infection among women in Zimbabwe

OBJECTIVE

To explore the relationship between early age of coital debut (15 years of age or younger) and risk for HIV infection among sexually active urbanized Zimbabwean women.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional analysis of screening data from a cohort study.

METHODS

Sexually active women aged 18-35 years were recruited from public sector family planning clinics in and around Harare, Zimbabwe between November 1999 and September 2002. They received a brief behavioral interview and HIV testing. Of the 4675 women screened, 4393 (94%) had complete data on sexual behaviors and HIV serostatus, and were included in this analysis.

RESULTS

HIV prevalence in this sample was 40.1%. The median age of coital debut was 18 years and 11.8% of women reporting having experienced coital debut at age 15 or younger. Women with early coital debut had a significantly higher risk profile, including multiple lifetime partners and not completing high school. In binary generalized linear regression models HIV risk was increased for women reporting early age of coital debut (relative hazard, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-1.50), controlling for duration of sexual activity and current age; this effect was attenuated somewhat after controlling for other factors such as number of sexual partners.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show that early coital debut is a significant predictor of prevalent HIV infection independent of other identified factors in this population. HIV prevention strategies should include delaying the age of first coitus and should address the barriers that may prevent young women from so doing.

Barrier contraceptive method acceptability and choice are not reliable indicators of use

BACKGROUND

The need for safe and effective female-controlled methods that protect against sexually transmitted pathogens is widely recognized. Product effectiveness is inextricably bound to use, and, therefore, the needs and preferences of potential consumers must be considered. The degree to which measures of acceptability correlate with actual barrier method use remains unexamined.

GOAL

The goal was to evaluate associations between measures of acceptability and use of existing over-the-counter barrier methods.

STUDY DESIGN

In the San Francisco Bay Area, 510 females aged 15 to 30 years were recruited from reproductive health clinics for this longitudinal study.

RESULTS

Neither hypothetical acceptability nor product choice predicted use. Fewer than 50% of participants who chose a female-controlled method used it. Similarly, method satisfaction was not associated with use (14.3-51.4% of satisfied users used the method again). However, dissatisfaction was predictive of low levels of subsequent use (0-15.3% used the method again). Male condoms were used despite dissatisfaction.

CONCLUSION

The lack of association among assessments of acceptability, choice, satisfaction, and use suggests a need to reframe how product acceptability is evaluated in prevention research so it is more predictive of method use.

Temporal changes in left ventricular systolic function in heart donors: results of serial echocardiography

BACKGROUND

Heart donor availability continues to limit cardiac transplantation rates and many donor hearts are not transplanted because of left ventricular dysfunction. The aim of this study was to determine whether intensive donor management results in improved left ventricular systolic function as measured by serial echocardiography.

METHODS

Using the California Transplant Donor Network Database, all donors who underwent serial echocardiography during donor management (from 1996 to 2000) were identified. The study includes those donors with ejection fractions <50% or regional wall-motion abnormalities shown on the initial echocardiogram. The database provides clinical data describing donor characteristics, treatments, and recipient outcomes. The mean ejection fractions at the first and second echocardiograms were compared using the Wilcoxon signed rank test.

RESULTS

In 13 of 16 subjects, initial ejection fractions were <50% and improved in 12 subjects after intensive donor management. Seventy-five percent of the donors received high-dose corticosteroids, 15 of 16 received dopamine, and none received thyroid hormone. In 12 subjects, the donor hearts were transplanted with a survival rate of 92% at an average follow-up of 16 months.

CONCLUSIONS

This pilot study indicates that in some cases, intensive donor management is associated with improved donor left ventricular function. Prospective studies are indicated to determine the predictors of improved donor left ventricular dysfunction and of recipient survival when sub-optimal hearts are transplanted.

The impact of left ventricular dysfunction on cardiac donor transplant rates

BACKGROUND

Because of the shortage of heart donors in the United States, efforts are necessary to maximize the yield of donor screening. The purpose of this study was to quantify the effects of left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction on heart donor use.

METHODS

Using the California Transplant Donor Network database, the records of all potential organ donors screened between January 1997 and June 1998 were reviewed. After excluding subjects for whom family consent could not be obtained and subjects <13 or >or=60 years old, a study group of 223 potential heart donors was analyzed. The number of hearts not used because of LV dysfunction, coronary artery disease (CAD), valvular disease, and LV hypertrophy were quantified. A logistic regression model was developed to quantify the independent effect of LV dysfunction on donor use rates after adjustment for age, weight, and cause of death.

RESULTS

Ninety-nine (44%) of the 223 potential donor hearts were not transplanted. Thirty-six of these hearts were not transplanted because of cardiac causes, primarily LV dysfunction (26 cases) and CAD (8 cases). The multivariable analysis showed that after adjusting for other donor variables, ejection fraction was the most significant predictor of non-use, with an odds ratio of 1.48 per 5-point decrease in ejection fraction.

CONCLUSIONS

Left ventricular dysfunction is an important cause of failure to transplant adult donor hearts. Efforts to improve the yield of heart donor screening should focus on prevention or reversal of LV dysfunction.

Risk factors for hospitalization among adults with asthma: the influence of sociodemographic factors and asthma severity

BACKGROUND

The morbidity and mortality from asthma have markedly increased since the late 1970s. The hospitalization rate, an important marker of asthma severity, remains substantial.

METHODS

In adults with health care access, we prospectively studied 242 with asthma, aged 18-50 years, recruited from a random sample of allergy and pulmonary physician practices in Northern California to identify risk factors for subsequent hospitalization.

RESULTS

Thirty-nine subjects (16%) reported hospitalization for asthma during the 18-month follow-up period. On controlling for asthma severity in multiple logistic regression analysis, non-white race (odds ratio [OR], 3.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-8.8) and lower income (OR, 1.1 per $10,000 decrement; 95% CI, 0.9-1.3) were associated with a higher risk of asthma hospitalization. The severity-of-asthma score (OR, 3.4 per 5 points; 95%, CI 1.7-6.8) and recent asthma hospitalization (OR, 8.3; 95%, CI, 2.1-33.4) were also related to higher risk, after adjusting for demographic characteristics. Reliance on emergency department services for urgent asthma care was also associated with a greater likelihood of hospitalization (OR, 3.2; 95% CI, 1.0-9.8). In multivariate analysis not controlling for asthma severity, low income was even more strongly related to hospitalization (OR, 1.2 per $10,000 decrement; 95% CI, 1.02-1.4).

CONCLUSION

In adult asthmatics with access to health care, non-white race, low income, and greater asthma severity were associated with a higher risk of hospitalization. Targeted interventions applied to high-risk asthma patients may reduce asthma morbidity and mortality.

Sociodemographic, behavioral, and clinical correlates of inconsistent condom use in HIV-serodiscordant heterosexual couples

We examined sociodemographic, behavioral, and clinical characteristics associated with inconsistent condom use in a cross-sectional analysis of 145 sexually active HIV-serodiscordant heterosexual couples who participated in the California Partners Study II. All couples were aware of their HIV-serodiscordant status. Forty-five percent of couples reported having had unprotected vaginal or anal sex in the previous 6 months. In the multivariate couple-level analyses, factors independently associated with inconsistent (i.e., <100%) condom use in the previous 6 months included lower educational level, unemployment, African-American ethnicity, and practice of anal sex by the couple. Injection drug use was associated with inconsistent condom use among couples with younger HIV-infected partners. In addition, couples with HIV-infected partners who had higher CD4 cell counts and couples in which the HIV-infected male partner ever had sex with a man were more likely to use condoms inconsistently. Consistency of condom use did not depend on the gender of the HIV-infected partner or duration of sexual relationship. The findings suggest that many HIV-serodiscordant heterosexual couples remain at high risk of HIV transmission and may benefit not only from behavioral interventions but also from structural interventions aimed at improving their social and economic conditions.

Trends in oral cancer rates in the United States, 1973-1996

OBJECTIVES

To explore changes in demographic distribution, incidence and survival rates of oral cancer in the United States from 1973 through 1996.

METHODS

From the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data, we computed the proportion of oral cancer by demographic characteristics, site, and stage at diagnosis for 1973-84 and 1985-96. We estimated incidence and 5-year relative survival rates of oral cancer by age, gender, and race/ethnicity, and compared survival rates between the two periods. The estimated annual percent change (EAPC) was used to explore trends in incidence rate from 1973 through 1996.

RESULTS

Most of the tongue and floor of mouth cancers (>54%) reported during 1973-84 and 1985-96 had spread to a distant site at time of diagnosis. The age-adjusted annual incidence rates of oral cancer decreased among white men from 1973 through 1996, but increased among black men aged 65-69 years, and among young white men (aged 30-34 years) and women (aged 25-29 years). These changes in trend were all statistically significant (testing EAPC=0 at the 0.05 level). Overall, there was no improvement in the 5-year relative survival rate of either whites or blacks with oral cancer.

CONCLUSION

There was little change in early detection of oral cancer or in 5-year relative survival rates between 1973-84 and 1985-96 in nine SEER regions. This suggests a deficiency in professional and public education regarding early diagnosis of oral cancer. Furthermore, the increasing trend of oral cancer among older black men and among younger whites merits further investigation.

Predictors of cigarette smoking and smoking cessation among adults with asthma

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to determine the predictors of smoking and time until smoking cessation in a cohort of adults with asthma.

METHODS

Adults with asthma (n = 374) in northern California completed structured telephone interviews at baseline and 18-month follow-up.

RESULTS

Of the 374 subjects, 156 reported ever having smoked, and 39 indicated that they currently smoked. Earlier birth cohort, lower educational attainment. White race, and presence in childhood residence of an adult who smoked were associated with a greater risk of ever smoking. Lower educational attainment, early smoking initiation, higher daily cigarette consumption, and late-childhood-onset asthma were associated with a longer interval until smoking cessation.

CONCLUSIONS

Persons with asthma at high risk of cigarette smoking and delayed quitting can be identified on the basis of clinical and demographic characteristics.

Epidemiologic evidence for time variation in HIV infectivity

Data from three epidemiologic studies of heterosexual transmission of HIV among monogamous couples are used to assess evidence for time variation in HIV infectivity, possibly related to varying levels of infectiousness following infection in the primary infected partner. Analyses are based on statistical techniques that account for the inherent incompleteness of exposure information from such studies, and that allow direct assessment of the hypotheses that infectivity varies with time since infection and across partnerships. Data include findings from 302 couples from the California Partners' Study and 51 and 31 couples, respectively, from two U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)-sponsored studies of infection in partners of transfusion recipients. Results indicate weak evidence for higher infectivity following infection of the primary partner, decreasing to relatively lower levels from 2 to 10 years after. Although these findings are consistent with biologic observations of time variation in viral levels, other explanations of the observed pattern (e.g., heterogeneity of infectivity) are equally plausible, pointing out some inherent limitations of data from such studies.

Environmental tobacco smoke and adult asthma. The impact of changing exposure status on health outcomes

The effect of environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure on adults with asthma has not been well characterized. In a prospective cohort study of 451 nonsmoking adults with asthma, we evaluated the impact of ETS exposure on asthma severity, health status, and health care utilization over 18 mo. There were 129 subjects (29%; 95% CI, 25-33%) who reported regular ETS exposure, falling into three categories: exposure at baseline but none at follow-up (n = 43, 10%), no baseline exposure and new exposure at follow-up (n = 56, 12%), and exposure at both baseline and follow-up (n = 30, 7%). In cross-sectional analyses, subjects with baseline ETS exposure had greater severity-of-asthma scores (score difference, 1.7; 95% CI, 0. 2-3.1), worse asthma-specific quality of life scores (score difference, 3.5; 95% CI, 0.03-7.0), and worse scores on the Medical Outcomes Study SF-36 physical component summary (score difference, 3. 0; 95% CI, 0-6.0) than unexposed subjects. They also had greater odds of emergency department visits (odds ratio [OR] = 2.1; 95% CI, 1.2-3.5), urgent physician visits (OR = 1.9; 95% CI, 1.1-3.3), and hospitalizations (OR = 1.9; 95% CI, 1.02-3.6). In longitudinal follow-up, subjects reporting ETS cessation showed improvement in severity-of-asthma scores (score reduction, -3.2; 95% CI, -4.4 to -2. 0) and physical component summary scores (score increase, 5.3; 95% CI, 2.6-8.1). Environmental tobacco smoke cessation decreased the odds of emergency department visits (OR = 0.4; 95% CI, 0.2-0.97) and hospitalizations (OR = 0.2; 95% CI, 0.04-0.97) after adjustment for covariates. Environmental tobacco smoke initiation was associated with greater asthma severity only in subjects with high-level (>= 3 h/wk) exposure (score increase, 1.4; 95% CI, 0.03-2.7). In conclusion, self-reported ETS exposure is associated with greater asthma severity, worse health status, and increased health care utilization in adults with asthma.

Generalized additive models for current status data

Current status data arise in studies where the target measurement is the time of occurrence of some event, but observations are limited to indicators of whether or not the event has occurred at the time the sample is collected--only the current status of each individual with respect to event occurrence is observed. Examples of such data arise in several fields, including demography, epidemiology, econometrics and bioassay. Although estimation of the marginal distribution of times of event occurrence is well understood, techniques for incorporating covariate information are not well developed. This paper proposes a semiparametric approach to estimation for regression models of current status data, using techniques from generalized additive modeling and isotonic regression. This procedure provides simultaneous estimates of the baseline distribution of event times and covariate effects. No parametric assumptions about the form of the baseline distribution are required. The results are illustrated using data from a demographic survey of breastfeeding practices in developing countries, and from an epidemiological study of heterosexual Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) transmission.

Heterosexual transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in northern California: results from a ten-year study

To examine rates of and risk factors for heterosexual transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), the authors conducted a prospective study of infected individuals and their heterosexual partners who have been recruited since 1985. Participants were recruited from health care providers, research studies, and health departments throughout Northern California, and they were interviewed and examined at various study clinic sites. A total of 82 infected women and their male partners and 360 infected men and their female partners were enrolled. Over 90% of the couples were monogamous for the year prior to entry into the study; < 3% had a current sexually transmitted disease (STD). The median age of participants was 34 years, and the majority were white. Over 3,000 couple-months of data were available for the follow-up study. Overall, 68 (19%) of the 360 female partners of HIV-infected men (95% confidence interval (CI) 15.0-23.3%) and two (2.4%) of the 82 male partners of HIV-infected women (95% CI 0.3-8.5%) were infected. History of sexually transmitted diseases was most strongly associated with transmission. Male-to-female transmission was approximately eight-times more efficient than female-to-male transmission and male-to-female per contact infectivity was estimated to be 0.0009 (95% CI 0.0005-0.001). Over time, the authors observed increased condom use (p < 0.001) and no new infections. Infectivity for HIV through heterosexual transmission is low, and STDs may be the most important cofactor for transmission. Significant behavior change over time in serodiscordant couples was observed.

Clofazimine as prophylaxis for disseminated Mycobacterium avium complex infection in AIDS

A randomized, prospective, open-label, treatment versus no treatment community-based clinical trial was conducted to evaluate the safety and efficacy of clofazimine as prophylaxis for disseminated Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) infection in patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease. Subjects were 110 patients with a first episode of Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia 2-4 months before enrollment or CD4 lymphocyte counts < or = 100/mm3; they were randomized to receive 50 mg of clofazimine daily or no treatment. Seven patients randomized to clofazimine developed disseminated MAC infection, compared with 6 patients receiving no treatment. Seventeen patients died: 9 in the treatment group and 8 receiving no treatment. Clofazimine at a dose of 50 mg/day is well tolerated by patients with HIV disease. Reduction in CD4 lymphocyte count to < 50/mm3 is a significant predictor of the development of disseminated MAC infection.

Risk factors for hepatitis C virus seropositivity in heterosexual couples

OBJECTIVES

To determine the risk of heterosexual transmission of hepatitis C virus (HCV) and to identify other risk factors for HCV seropositivity in heterosexual couples.

DESIGN

Retrospective cross-sectional study comparing HCV-seropositive and HCV-seronegative heterosexual men and women.

SETTING

Couples recruited from the community and screened for participation in a study of the heterosexual transmission of human immunodeficiency virus.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 340 subjects, 170 men and 170 women in sexual partnerships, aged 18 through 61 years.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Seropositivity for HCV antibodies.

RESULTS

Overall, 31 (18%) of the 170 women and 56 (33%) of the 170 men were positive by a four-antigen HCV immunoblot. Injection drug use and hemophilia were strongly associated with HCV seropositivity. Sixty-four percent of injection drug users were positive (odds ratio [OR], 27.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 13.4 to 56.1; P < .0001), as were all four hemophiliacs in the study. History of blood transfusion was significantly associated with HCV seropositivity (OR, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.1 to 7.0; P = .02). Positivity for HCV was not associated with measures of sexual behavior within couples or with numbers of other sexual partners, history of sexually transmitted diseases, or human immunodeficiency virus seropositivity. However, two of the 31 women without parenteral risk but with a long-term HCV-positive male partner were HCV seropositive compared with none of 81 women with an HCV-negative male partner (P = .07).

CONCLUSIONS

These results provide little evidence of HCV sexual transmission but are consistent with infrequent sexual transmission. They corroborate the importance of injection drug use and transfusion of blood or blood products in transmitting HCV and underscore the importance of ascertaining parenteral exposures when examining sexual transmission of HCV.

Female-to-male transmission of human immunodeficiency virus

OBJECTIVE

--To examine rates of heterosexual transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and associated risk factors and to determine the relative efficiency of female-to-male and male-to-female transmission.

DESIGN

--Survey of infected individuals and their heterosexual partners recruited since 1985.

SETTING

--Participants were recruited from various HIV counseling and testing sites throughout California but were generally interviewed and tested in their homes.

PARTICIPANTS

--Data from 379 couples at entry to the study are reported: 72 male partners of infected women and 307 female partners of infected men. The infected index case had a well-established source of risk; couples were eliminated if the direction of transmission could not be established. The majority of couples were monogamous since 1978, white, and in their 30s. Most partners did not know their serostatus at entry into the study.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

--HIV serostatus in the exposed sexual partner.

RESULTS

--We observed one probable instance (1%) of female-to-male transmission compared with 20% transmission rates in the female partners of infected men. All couples were sampled in the same way. Male index cases were more likely to be symptomatic than female index cases.

CONCLUSION

--The odds of male-to-female transmission were significantly greater than female-to-male transmission. The one case of female-to-male transmission was unique in that the couple reported numerous unprotected sexual contacts and noted several instances of vaginal and penile bleeding during intercourse.

CD8+ T lymphocytes and progression to AIDS in HIV-infected men: some observations

The relationship between CD8+ lymphocyte counts and progression to AIDS was studied in 340 HIV-1-seropositive men participating in a population-based prospective study. Overall, the relative hazard for developing AIDS during 60 months of observation was slightly elevated (1.08, P = 0.003), indicating an 8% increase in risk of progression for every 100 CD8+ cell count increment. When the data were analyzed in relation to date of diagnosis, the relative hazard was depressed (0.90, P less than 0.001) for the period 6 months prior to diagnosis, but was close to 1.0 for the period 6-36 months prior to diagnosis. These findings suggest a complex relationship between CD8+ cell counts and progression to AIDS, with the possibility that various subsets of the CD8+ compartment play different roles.