Evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations

Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. Forecasting teams were asked to provide national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one through four weeks ahead for the 2021-22 and 2022-23 influenza seasons. Across both seasons, 26 teams submitted forecasts, with the submitting teams varying between seasons. Forecast skill was evaluated using the Weighted Interval Score (WIS), relative WIS, and coverage. Six out of 23 models outperformed the baseline model across forecast weeks and locations in 2021-22 and 12 out of 18 models in 2022-23. Averaging across all forecast targets, the FluSight ensemble was the 2nd most accurate model measured by WIS in 2021-22 and the 5th most accurate in the 2022-23 season. Forecast skill and 95% coverage for the FluSight ensemble and most component models degraded over longer forecast horizons and during periods of rapid change. Current influenza forecasting efforts help inform situational awareness, but research is needed to address limitations, including decreased performance during periods of changing epidemic dynamics.

Atmospheric dispersion and deposition of 131I released from the Hanford Site

Approximately 2.6 x 10(4) TBq (700,000 Ci) of 131I were released to the air from reactor fuel processing plants on the Hanford Site in southcentral Washington State from December 1944 through December 1949. The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project developed a suite of codes to estimate the doses that might have resulted from these releases. The Regional Atmospheric Transport Code for Hanford Emission Tracking (RATCHET) computer code is part of this suite. The RATCHET code implements a Lagrangian-trajectory, Gaussian-puff dispersion model that uses hourly meteorological and release rate data to estimate daily time-integrated air concentrations and surface contamination for use in dose estimates. In this model, iodine is treated as a mixture of three species (inorganic gases, organic gases, and particles). Model deposition parameters are functions of the mixture and meteorological conditions. A resistance model is used to calculate dry deposition velocities. Equilibrium between concentrations in the precipitation and the air near the ground is assumed in calculating wet deposition of gases, and irreversible washout of the particles is assumed. RATCHET explicitly treats the uncertainties in model parameters and meteorological conditions. Uncertainties in 131I release rates and partitioning among the nominal species are treated by varying model input. The results of 100 model runs for December 1944 through December 1949 indicate that monthly average air concentrations and deposition have uncertainties ranging from a factor of two near the center of the time-integrated plume to more than an order of magnitude near the edge. These results indicate that approximately 10% of the 131I released to the atmosphere decayed during transit in the study area, approximately 56% was deposited within the study area, and the remaining 34% was transported out of the study area while still in the air.