Clinical Benefit of Hospitalization for Older Adults With Unexplained Syncope: A Propensity-Matched Analysis

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Many adults with syncope are hospitalized solely for observation and testing. We seek to determine whether hospitalization versus outpatient management for older adults with unexplained syncope is associated with a reduction in postdisposition serious adverse events at 30 days.

METHODS

We performed a propensity score analysis using data from a prospective, observational study of older adults with unexplained syncope or near syncope who presented to 11 emergency departments (EDs) in the United States. We enrolled adults (≥60 years) who presented with syncope or near syncope. We excluded patients with a serious diagnosis identified in the ED. Clinical and laboratory data were collected on all patients. The primary outcome was rate of post-ED serious adverse events at 30 days.

RESULTS

We enrolled 2,492 older adults with syncope and no serious ED diagnosis from April 2013 to September 2016. Mean age was 73 years (SD 8.9 years), and 51% were women. The incidence of serious adverse events within 30 days after the index visit was 7.4% for hospitalized patients and 3.19% for discharged patients, representing an unadjusted difference of 4.2% (95% confidence interval 2.38% to 6.02%). After propensity score matching on risk of hospitalization, there was no statistically significant difference in serious adverse events at 30 days between the hospitalized group (4.89%) and the discharged group (2.82%) (risk difference 2.07%; 95% confidence interval -0.24% to 4.38%).

CONCLUSION

In our propensity-matched sample of older adults with unexplained syncope, for those with clinical characteristics similar to that of the discharged cohort, hospitalization was not associated with improvement in 30-day serious adverse event rates.

Do High-sensitivity Troponin and Natriuretic Peptide Predict Death or Serious Cardiac Outcomes After Syncope?

OBJECTIVES

An estimated 1.2 million annual emergency department (ED) visits for syncope/near syncope occur in the United States. Cardiac biomarkers are frequently obtained during the ED evaluation, but the prognostic value of index high-sensitivity troponin (hscTnT) and natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) are unclear. The objective of this study was to determine if hscTnT and NT-proBNP drawn in the ED are independently associated with 30-day death/serious cardiac outcomes in adult patients presenting with syncope.

METHODS

A prespecified secondary analysis of a prospective, observational trial enrolling participants ≥ age 60 presenting with syncope, at 11 United States hospitals, was conducted between April 2013 and September 2016. Exclusions included seizure, stroke, transient ischemic attack, trauma, intoxication, hypoglycemia, persistent confusion, mechanical/electrical invention, prior enrollment, or predicted poor follow-up. Within 3 hours of consent, hscTnT and NT-proBNP were collected and later analyzed centrally using Roche Elecsys Gen 5 STAT and 2010 Cobas, respectively. Primary outcome was combined 30-day all-cause mortality and serious cardiac events. Adjusting for illness severity, using multivariate logistic regression analysis, variations between primary outcome and biomarkers were estimated, adjusting absolute risk associated with ranges of biomarkers using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods.

RESULTS

The cohort included 3,392 patients; 367 (10.8%) experienced the primary outcome. Adjusted absolute risk for the primary outcome increased with hscTnT and NT-proBNP levels. HscTnT levels ≤ 5 ng/L were associated with a 4% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 3%-5%) outcome risk, and hscTnT > 50 ng/L, a 29% (95% CI = 26%-33%) risk. NT-proBNP levels ≤ 125 ng/L were associated with a 4% (95% CI = 4%-5%) risk, and NT-proBNP > 2,000 ng/L a 29% (95% CI = 25%-32%) risk. Likelihood ratios and predictive values demonstrated similar results. Sensitivity analyses excluding ED index serious outcomes demonstrated similar findings.

CONCLUSIONS

hscTnT and NT-proBNP are independent predictors of 30-day death and serious outcomes in older ED patients presenting with syncope.

Orthostatic vital signs do not predict 30 day serious outcomes in older emergency department patients with syncope: A multicenter observational study

BACKGROUND

Syncope is a common chief complaint among older adults in the Emergency Department (ED), and orthostatic vital signs are often a part of their evaluation. We assessed whether abnormal orthostatic vital signs in the ED are associated with composite 30-day serious outcomes in older adults presenting with syncope.

METHODS

We performed a secondary analysis of a prospective, observational study at 11 EDs in adults ≥ 60 years who presented with syncope or near syncope. We excluded patients lost to follow up. We used the standard definition of abnormal orthostatic vital signs or subjective symptoms of lightheadedness upon standing to define orthostasis. We determined the rate of composite 30-day serious outcomes, including those during the index ED visit, such as cardiac arrhythmias, myocardial infarction, cardiac intervention, new diagnosis of structural heart disease, stroke, pulmonary embolism, aortic dissection, subarachnoid hemorrhage, cardiopulmonary resuscitation, hemorrhage/anemia requiring transfusion, with major traumatic injury from fall, recurrent syncope, and death) between the groups with normal and abnormal orthostatic vital signs.

RESULTS

The study cohort included 1974 patients, of whom 51.2% were male and 725 patients (37.7%) had abnormal orthostatic vital signs. Comparing those with abnormal to those with normal orthostatic vital signs, we did not find a difference in composite 30-serious outcomes (111/725 (15.3%) vs 184/1249 (14.7%); unadjusted odds ratio, 1.05 [95%CI, 0.81-1.35], p = 0.73). After adjustment for gender, coronary artery disease, congestive heart failure (CHF), history of arrhythmia, dyspnea, hypotension, any abnormal ECG, physician risk assessment, medication classes and disposition, there was no association with composite 30-serious outcomes (adjusted odds ratio, 0.82 [95%CI, 0.62-1.09], p = 0.18).

CONCLUSIONS

In a cohort of older adult patients presenting with syncope who were able to have orthostatic vital signs evaluated, abnormal orthostatic vital signs did not independently predict composite 30-day serious outcomes.

Comparison of 30-Day Serious Adverse Clinical Events for Elderly Patients Presenting to the Emergency Department With Near-Syncope Versus Syncope

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Controversy remains in regard to the risk of adverse events for patients presenting with syncope compared with near-syncope. The purpose of our study is to describe the difference in outcomes between these groups in a large multicenter cohort of older emergency department (ED) patients.

METHODS

From April 28, 2013, to September 21, 2016, we conducted a prospective, observational study across 11 EDs in adults (≥60 years) with syncope or near-syncope. A standardized data extraction tool was used to collect information during their index visit and at 30-day follow-up. Our primary outcome was the incidence of 30-day death or serious clinical events. Data were analyzed with descriptive statistics and multivariate logistic regression analysis adjusting for relevant demographic or historical variables.

RESULTS

A total of 3,581 patients (mean age 72.8 years; 51.6% men) were enrolled in the study. There were 1,380 patients (39%) presenting with near-syncope and 2,201 (61%) presenting with syncope. Baseline characteristics revealed a greater incidence of congestive heart failure, coronary artery disease, previous arrhythmia, nonwhite race, and presenting dyspnea in the near-syncope compared with syncope cohort. There were no differences in the primary outcome between the groups (near-syncope 18.7% versus syncope 18.2%). A multivariate logistic regression analysis identified no difference in 30-day serious outcomes for patients with near-syncope (odds ratio 0.94; 95% confidence interval 0.78 to 1.14) compared with syncope.

CONCLUSION

Near-syncope confers risk to patients similar to that of syncope for the composite outcome of 30-day death or serious clinical event.

Predictors of Clinically Significant Echocardiography Findings in Older Adults with Syncope: A Secondary Analysis

BACKGROUND

Syncope is a common reason for visiting the emergency department (ED) and is associated with significant healthcare resource utilization.

OBJECTIVE

To develop a risk-stratification tool for clinically significant findings on echocardiography among older adults presenting to the ED with syncope or nearsyncope.

DESIGN

Prospective, observational cohort study from April 2013 to September 2016.

SETTING

Eleven EDs in the United States.

PATIENTS

We enrolled adults (=60 years) who presented to the ED with syncope or near-syncope who underwent transthoracic echocardiography (TTE).

MEASUREMENTS

The primary outcome was a clinically significant finding on TTE. Clinical, electrocardiogram, and laboratory variables were also collected. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify predictors of significant findings on echocardiography.

RESULTS

A total of 3,686 patients were enrolled. Of these, 995 (27%) received echocardiography, and 215 (22%) had a significant finding on echocardiography. Regression analysis identified five predictors of significant finding: (1) history of congestive heart failure, (2) history of coronary artery disease, (3) abnormal electrocardiogram, (4) high-sensitivity troponin-T >14 pg/mL, and 5) N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide >125 pg/mL. These five variables make up the ROMEO (Risk Of Major Echocardiography findings in Older adults with syncope) criteria. The sensitivity of a ROMEO score of zero for excluding significant findings on echocardiography was 99.5% (95% CI: 97.4%-99.9%) with a specificity of 15.4% (95% CI: 13.0%-18.1%).

CONCLUSIONS

If validated, this risk-stratification tool could help clinicians determine which syncope patients are at very low risk of having clinically significant findings on echocardiography.

REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT01802398.

Recurrent syncope is not an independent risk predictor for future syncopal events or adverse outcomes

Almost 20% of patients with syncope will experience another event. It is unknown whether recurrent syncope is a marker for a higher or lower risk etiology of syncope. The goal of this study is to determine whether older adults with recurrent syncope have a higher likelihood of 30-day serious clinical events than patients experiencing their first episode.

METHODS

This study is a pre-specified secondary analysis of a multicenter prospective, observational study conducted at 11 emergency departments in the US. Adults 60 years or older who presented with syncope or near syncope were enrolled. The primary outcome was occurrence of 30-day serious outcome. The secondary outcome was 30-day serious cardiac arrhythmia. In multivariate analysis, we assessed whether prior syncope was an independent predictor of 30-day serious events.

RESULTS

The study cohort included 3580 patients: 1281 (35.8%) had prior syncope and 2299 (64.2%) were presenting with first episode of syncope. 498 (13.9%) patients had 1 prior episode while 771 (21.5%) had >1 prior episode. Those with recurrent syncope were more likely to have congestive heart failure, coronary artery disease, previous diagnosis of arrhythmia, and an abnormal ECG. Overall, 657 (18.4%) of the cohort had a serious outcome by 30 days after index ED visit. In multivariate analysis, we found no significant difference in risk of events (adjusted odds ratio 1.09; 95% confidence interval 0.90-1.31; p = 0.387).

CONCLUSION

In older adults with syncope, a prior history of syncope within the year does not increase the risk for serious 30-day events.

Outcomes of Patients With Syncope and Suspected Dementia

OBJECTIVES

Syncope and near-syncope are common in patients with dementia and a leading cause of emergency department (ED) evaluation and subsequent hospitalization. The objective of this study was to describe the clinical trajectory and short-term outcomes of patients who presented to the ED with syncope or near-syncope and were assessed by their ED provider to have dementia.

METHODS

This multisite prospective cohort study included patients 60 years of age or older who presented to the ED with syncope or near-syncope between 2013 and 2016. We analyzed a subcohort of 279 patients who were identified by the treating ED provider to have baseline dementia. We collected comprehensive patient-level, utilization, and outcomes data through interviews, provider surveys, and chart abstraction. Outcome measures included serious conditions related to syncope and death.

RESULTS

Overall, 221 patients (79%) were hospitalized with a median length of stay of 2.1 days. A total of 46 patients (16%) were diagnosed with a serious condition in the ED. Of the 179 hospitalized patients who did not have a serious condition identified in the ED, 14 (7.8%) were subsequently diagnosed with a serious condition during the hospitalization, and an additional 12 patients (6.7%) were diagnosed postdischarge within 30 days of the index ED visit. There were seven deaths (2.5%) overall, none of which were cardiac-related. No patients who were discharged from the ED died or had a serious condition in the subsequent 30 days.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with perceived dementia who presented to the ED with syncope or near-syncope were frequently hospitalized. The diagnosis of a serious condition was uncommon if not identified during the initial ED assessment. Given the known iatrogenic risks of hospitalization for patients with dementia, future investigation of the impact of goals of care discussions on reducing potentially preventable, futile, or unwanted hospitalizations while improving goal-concordant care is warranted.

ECG Predictors of Cardiac Arrhythmias in Older Adults With Syncope

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Cardiac arrhythmia is a life-threatening condition in older adults who present to the emergency department (ED) with syncope. Previous work suggests the initial ED ECG can predict arrhythmia risk; however, specific ECG predictors have been variably specified. Our objective is to identify specific ECG abnormalities predictive of 30-day serious cardiac arrhythmias in older adults presenting to the ED with syncope.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective, observational study at 11 EDs in adults aged 60 years or older who presented with syncope or near syncope. We excluded patients with a serious cardiac arrhythmia diagnosed during the ED evaluation from the primary analysis. The outcome was occurrence of 30-day serous cardiac arrhythmia. The exposure variables were predefined ECG abnormalities. Independent predictors were identified through multivariate logistic regression. The sensitivities and specificities of any predefined ECG abnormality and any ECG abnormality identified on adjusted analysis to predict 30-day serious cardiac arrhythmia were also calculated.

RESULTS

After exclusion of 197 patients (5.5%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.7% to 6.2%) with serious cardiac arrhythmias in the ED, the study cohort included 3,416 patients. Of these, 104 patients (3.0%; 95% CI 2.5% to 3.7%) had a serious cardiac arrhythmia within 30 days from the index ED visit (median time to diagnosis 2 days [interquartile range 1 to 5 days]). The presence of nonsinus rhythm, multiple premature ventricular conductions, short PR interval, first-degree atrioventricular block, complete left bundle branch block, and Q wave/T wave/ST-segment abnormalities consistent with acute or chronic ischemia on the initial ED ECG increased the risk for a 30-day serious cardiac arrhythmia. This combination of ECG abnormalities had a similar sensitivity in predicting 30-day serious cardiac arrhythmia compared with any ECG abnormality (76.9% [95% CI 67.6% to 84.6%] versus 77.9% [95% CI 68.7% to 85.4%]) and was more specific (55.1% [95% CI 53.4% to 56.8%] versus 46.6% [95% CI 44.9% to 48.3%]).

CONCLUSION

In older ED adults with syncope, approximately 3% receive a diagnosis of a serious cardiac arrhythmia not recognized on initial ED evaluation. The presence of specific abnormalities on the initial ED ECG increased the risk for 30-day serious cardiac arrhythmias.

Minimizing Attrition for Multisite Emergency Care Research

Loss to follow-up of enrolled patients (a.k.a. attrition) is a major threat to study validity and power. Minimizing attrition can be challenging even under ideal research conditions, including the presence of adequate funding, experienced study personnel, and a refined research infrastructure. Emergency care research is shifting toward enrollment through multisite networks, but there have been limited descriptions of approaches to minimize attrition for these multicenter emergency care studies. This concept paper describes a stepwise approach to minimize attrition, using a case example of a multisite emergency department prospective cohort of over 3,000 patients that has achieved a 30-day direct phone follow-up attrition rate of <3%. The seven areas of approach to minimize attrition in this study focused on patient selection, baseline contact data collection, patient incentives, patient tracking, central phone banks, local enrollment site assistance, and continuous performance monitoring. Appropriate study design, including consideration of these methods to reduce attrition, will be time well spent and may improve study validity.

Reliability of Clinical Assessments in Older Adults With Syncope or Near Syncope

OBJECTIVES

Clinical prediction models for risk stratification of older adults with syncope or near syncope may improve resource utilization and management. Predictors considered for inclusion into such models must be reliable. Our primary objective was to evaluate the inter-rater agreement of historical, physical examination, and electrocardiogram (ECG) findings in older adults undergoing emergency department (ED) evaluation for syncope or near syncope. Our secondary objective was to assess the level of agreement between clinicians on the patient's overall risk for death or serious cardiac outcomes.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study at 11 EDs in adults 60 years of age or older who presented with unexplained syncope or near syncope. We excluded patients with a presumptive cause of syncope (e.g., seizure) or if they were unable or unwilling to follow-up. Evaluations of the patient's past medical history and current medication use were completed by treating provider and trained research associate pairs. Evaluations of the patient's physical examination and ECG interpretation were completed by attending/resident, attending/advanced practice provider, or attending/attending pairs. All evaluations were blinded to the responses from the other rater. We calculated the percent agreement and kappa statistic for binary variables. Inter-rater agreement was considered acceptable if the kappa statistic was 0.6 or higher.

RESULTS

We obtained paired observations from 255 patients; mean (±SD) age was 73 (±9) years, 137 (54%) were male, and 204 (80%) were admitted to the hospital. Acceptable agreement was achieved in 18 of the 21 (86%) past medical history and current medication findings, none of the 10 physical examination variables, and three of the 13 (23%) ECG interpretation variables. There was moderate agreement (Spearman correlation coefficient, r = 0.40) between clinicians on the patient's probability of 30-day death or serious cardiac outcome, although as the probability increased, there was less agreement.

CONCLUSIONS

Acceptable agreement between raters was more commonly achieved with historical rather than physical examination or ECG interpretation variables. Clinicians had moderate agreement in assessing the patient's overall risk for a serious outcome at 30 days. Future development of clinical prediction models in older adults with syncope should account for variability of assessments between raters and consider the use of objective clinical variables.

Assessing the feasibility of large-scale natural language processing in a corpus of ordinary medical records: a lexical analysis

OBJECTIVE

Identify the lexical content of a large corpus of ordinary medical records to assess the feasibility of large-scale natural language processing.

METHODS

A corpus of 560 megabytes of medical record text from an academic medical center was broken into individual words and compared with the words in six medical vocabularies, a common word list, and a database of patient names. Unrecognized words were assessed for algorithmic and contextual approaches to identifying more words, while the remainder were analyzed for spelling correctness.

RESULTS

About 60% of the words occurred in the medical vocabularies, common word list, or names database. Of the remainder, one-third were recognizable by other means. Of the remaining unrecognizable words, over three-fourths represented correctly spelled real words and the rest were misspellings.

CONCLUSIONS

Large-scale generalized natural language processing methods for the medical record will require expansion of existing vocabularies, spelling error correction, and other algorithmic approaches to map words into those from clinical vocabularies.