Prehospital early warning scores for adults with suspected sepsis: the PHEWS observational cohort and decision-analytic modelling study

Background

Guidelines for sepsis recommend treating those at highest risk within 1 hour. The emergency care system can only achieve this if sepsis is recognised and prioritised. Ambulance services can use prehospital early warning scores alongside paramedic diagnostic impression to prioritise patients for treatment or early assessment in the emergency department.

Objectives

To determine the accuracy, impact and cost-effectiveness of using early warning scores alongside paramedic diagnostic impression to identify sepsis requiring urgent treatment.

Design

Retrospective diagnostic cohort study and decision-analytic modelling of operational consequences and cost-effectiveness.

Setting

Two ambulance services and four acute hospitals in England.

Participants

Adults transported to hospital by emergency ambulance, excluding episodes with injury, mental health problems, cardiac arrest, direct transfer to specialist services, or no vital signs recorded.

Interventions

Twenty-one early warning scores used alongside paramedic diagnostic impression, categorised as sepsis, infection, non-specific presentation, or other specific presentation.

Main outcome measures

Proportion of cases prioritised at the four hospitals; diagnostic accuracy for the sepsis-3 definition of sepsis and receiving urgent treatment (primary reference standard); daily number of cases with and without sepsis prioritised at a large and a small hospital; the minimum treatment effect associated with prioritisation at which each strategy would be cost-effective, compared to no prioritisation, assuming willingness to pay £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained.

Results

Data from 95,022 episodes involving 71,204 patients across four hospitals showed that most early warning scores operating at their pre-specified thresholds would prioritise more than 10% of cases when applied to non-specific attendances or all attendances. Data from 12,870 episodes at one hospital identified 348 (2.7%) with the primary reference standard. The National Early Warning Score, version 2 (NEWS2), had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve when applied only to patients with a paramedic diagnostic impression of sepsis or infection (0.756, 95% confidence interval 0.729 to 0.783) or sepsis alone (0.655, 95% confidence interval 0.63 to 0.68). None of the strategies provided high sensitivity (> 0.8) with acceptable positive predictive value (> 0.15). NEWS2 provided combinations of sensitivity and specificity that were similar or superior to all other early warning scores. Applying NEWS2 to paramedic diagnostic impression of sepsis or infection with thresholds of > 4, > 6 and > 8 respectively provided sensitivities and positive predictive values (95% confidence interval) of 0.522 (0.469 to 0.574) and 0.216 (0.189 to 0.245), 0.447 (0.395 to 0.499) and 0.274 (0.239 to 0.313), and 0.314 (0.268 to 0.365) and 0.333 (confidence interval 0.284 to 0.386). The mortality relative risk reduction from prioritisation at which each strategy would be cost-effective exceeded 0.975 for all strategies analysed.

Limitations

We estimated accuracy using a sample of older patients at one hospital. Reliable evidence was not available to estimate the effectiveness of prioritisation in the decision-analytic modelling.

Conclusions

No strategy is ideal but using NEWS2, in patients with a paramedic diagnostic impression of infection or sepsis could identify one-third to half of sepsis cases without prioritising unmanageable numbers. No other score provided clearly superior accuracy to NEWS2. Research is needed to develop better definition, diagnosis and treatments for sepsis.

Study registration

This study is registered as Research Registry (reference: researchregistry5268).

Funding

This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 17/136/10) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 16. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

What is the evidence for the management of patients along the pathway from the emergency department to acute admission to reduce unplanned attendance and admission? An evidence synthesis

Background

Globally, the rate of emergency hospital admissions is increasing. However, little evidence exists to inform the development of interventions to reduce unplanned Emergency Department (ED) attendances and hospital admissions. The objective of this evidence synthesis was to review the evidence for interventions, conducted during the patient’s journey through the ED or acute care setting, to manage people with an exacerbation of a medical condition to reduce unplanned emergency hospital attendance and admissions.

Methods

A rapid evidence synthesis, using a systematic literature search, was undertaken in the electronic data bases of MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, the Cochrane Library and Web of Science, for the years 2000–2014. Evidence included in this review was restricted to Randomised Controlled Trials (RCTs) and observational studies (with a control arm) reported in peer-reviewed journals. Studies evaluating interventions for patients with an acute exacerbation of a medical condition in the ED or acute care setting which reported at least one outcome related to ED attendance or unplanned admission were included.

Results

Thirty papers met our inclusion criteria: 19 intervention studies (14 RCTs) and 11 controlled observational studies. Sixteen studies were set in the ED and 14 were conducted in an acute setting. Two studies (one RCT), set in the ED were effective in reducing ED attendance and hospital admission. Both of these interventions were initiated in the ED and included a post-discharge community component. Paradoxically 3 ED initiated interventions showed an increase in ED re-attendance. Six studies (1 RCT) set in acute care settings were effective in reducing: hospital admission, ED re-attendance or re-admission (two in an observation ward, one in an ED assessment unit and three in which the intervention was conducted within 72 h of admission).

Conclusions

There is no clear evidence that specific interventions along the patient journey from ED arrival to 72 h after admission benefit ED re-attendance or readmission. Interventions targeted at high-risk patients, particularly the elderly, may reduce ED utilization and warrant future research. Some interventions showing effectiveness in reducing unplanned ED attendances and admissions are delivered by appropriately trained personnel in an environment that allows sufficient time to assess and manage patients.

An evaluation of the referral process in the emergency department

INTRODUCTION

Making an effective telephone referral is an important skill for an emergency department (ED) clinician. It is essential for patient safety that the information is conveyed in a succinct manner to the correct inpatient specialty. The aim of this study was to assess: the impact of grade of staff making the referral; specialty referred to; and condition or patient problem. It also aimed to identify current problems or barriers in the referral process.

METHODS

This prospective study took place in one large teaching hospital in the UK. There were two parts: data collection to obtain information on each referral made by ED staff; and questionnaires administered to obtain opinions on the current referral process from both staff making and receiving the referrals.

RESULTS

Data were collected over 6 days and included 362 referrals. The mean evaluation of the referral process (scored 0-4) for all referrals was 3.34 (SD 0.95). 22 ED staff responding (64.7%) felt that some specialties were more difficult to refer to than others. 60.6% of non-ED staff accepting referrals felt they would like some form of senior ED screening process prior to referral compared with 20.6% of ED staff. The most common topics commented on were communication, education and process.

DISCUSSION

There are differences in understanding and opinion between ED and non-ED staff about the referral process. There are also factors which influence ease of referral: specialty referring to and patient problem. More intervention studies are required to identify solutions that can be implemented and sustained in routine practice.

Are emergency department junior doctors becoming less experienced in performing common practical procedures?

A questionnaire was designed to measure junior doctors' experience of performing practical procedures and was distributed to all junior doctors working in our emergency department during June 2005 and June 2006. The junior doctors were subjectively less experienced in all the procedures measured in 2006 compared to 2005. There were statistically significant reductions in experience of shoulder manipulation, suturing and wound exploration. Junior doctors are becoming less experienced in performing some practical procedures.

Are today's junior doctors confident in managing patients with minor injury?

OBJECTIVES

To assess the confidence of junior doctors in managing minor injuries, compared with other common acute conditions.

METHOD

A questionnaire designed to elicit areas of confidence and subjective competence was distributed to junior doctors working in the emergency department in December 2004.

RESULTS

Junior doctors felt most competent and confident working with medical trolley patients and least competent working with patients with minor injury. A lack of teaching and experience in handling minor injuries (which are seen by nurse practitioners in a separate unit during the day) was highlighted.

CONCLUSIONS

Nurse-led minor injury units may have an effect on junior doctors' experience and confidence in minor injury care. Further effort needs to be made to increase the training of junior doctors in minor injury care.

An unusual rugby injury

We describe an unusual sports injury in a young man, a combination of obturator hip dislocation with an ipsilateral anterior cruciate ligament injury. Traumatic non-prosthetic hip dislocations, particularly obturator hip dislocations, are extremely rare sports injuries and have not previously been reported in conjunction with a knee ligament injury. The severe pain and obvious deformity from the hip injury can distract from other injuries, particularly to the ipsilateral knee. This case reinforces the need for a thorough assessment of the knee joint, before hip reduction if possible and certainly after reduction of the dislocation.