Epidemic malaria dynamics in Ethiopia: the role of self-limiting, poverty, HIV, climate change and human population growth

Background

During the last two decades, researchers have suggested that the changes of malaria cases in African highlands were driven by climate change. Recently, a study claimed that the malaria cases (Plasmodium falciparum) in Oromia (Ethiopia) were related to minimum temperature. Critics highlighted that other variables could be involved in the dynamics of the malaria. The literature mentions that beyond climate change, trends in malaria cases could be involved with HIV, human population size, poverty, investments in health control programmes, among others.

Methods

Population ecologists have developed a simple framework, which helps to explore the contributions of endogenous (density-dependent) and exogenous processes on population dynamics. Both processes may operate to determine the dynamic behaviour of a particular population through time. Briefly, density-dependent (endogenous process) occurs when the per capita population growth rate (R) is determined by the previous population size. An exogenous process occurs when some variable affects another but is not affected by the changes it causes. This study explores the dynamics of malaria cases (Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax) in Oromia region in Ethiopia and explores the interaction between minimum temperature, HIV, poverty, human population size and social instability.

Results

The results support that malaria dynamics showed signs of a negative endogenous process between R and malaria infectious class, and a weak evidence to support the climate change hypothesis.

Conclusion

Poverty, HIV, population size could interact to force malaria models parameters explaining the dynamics malaria observed at Ethiopia from 1985 to 2007.

Forest cover controls the nitrogen and carbon stable isotopes of rivers

Deforestation affects the ecological integrity of rivers and streams, threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide. However, few studies have strictly analyzed the effect of the functional responses of tropical streams to changes in forest cover since deforested basins are usually also influenced by confounding anthropogenic inputs. Here we address tropical streams and test whether the stable isotopic ratios of nitrogen (N, δ¹⁵N) and carbon (C, δ¹³C) and the ratio of C:N of ecosystem components vary along a forest cover gradient. We also assess the ecological integrity of streams by in situ measurements using physical features commonly used in stream quality assessments. The results showed that the δ¹⁵N of most aquatic components, δ¹³C of particulate matter and omnivorous fish, and C:N of particulate matter and algae vary significantly with forest cover, indicating the role of terrestrial vegetation in regulating stream biogeochemistry. The dual stable isotope analysis satisfactorily indicated the changes in terrestrial-aquatic connections regarding both N and C cycles, thus showing the role of algae and particulate matter in influencing stream fauna through food web transfers. Our results support the use of stable isotopes to monitor watershed deforestation and highlight the need for reassessment of the effects of anthropogenic inputs on δ¹⁵N increase in globally distributed inland waters since the loss of forest is a significant cause in itself.

Distribution and abundance of freshwater decapods in an Atlantic rainforest catchment with a dammed future

Variations in physical characteristics along the course of a river influence habitat availability which reflects in species distribution. Knowledge of ecology and diversity of lotic species is important for evaluating how river ecosystems will respond to environmental impacts. Freshwater decapods are a group of high ecological and economic importance, but the knowledge about factors influencing their distribution is scarce in Brazil. We performed a survey of decapods to describe their abundance and distribution as well as to study their relationships with stream physical variables and especially their association with different substrates types. We studied 23 sites located in 15 tributaries of Guapiaçú River, RJ, where we collected decapods in different substrates types and measured a set of physical variables. We found five decapods species, including amphidromous and non-amphidromous shrimps and crabs. Decapods were strongly associated with leaf-litter substrates and their abundance was related to a multivariate axis describing longitudinal changes in stream characteristics. We concluded that decapods occurring in the Guapiaçú catchment inhabit mainly small streams with preserved riparian forests where they find shelter and potential prey of invertebrates. The ongoing project to build a dam on the Guapiaçú River will have negative consequences to migrating shrimps and we strongly recommend that mitigating actions, such the construction of structures to allow the passage of migrating fauna, should be taken.

About rats and jackfruit trees: modeling the carrying capacity of a Brazilian Atlantic Forest spiny-rat Trinomys dimidiatus (Günther, 1877) - Rodentia, Echimyidae - population with varying jackfruit tree (Artocarpus heterophyllus L.) abundances

We carried out a six-year study aimed at evaluating if and how a Brazilian Atlantic Forest small mammal community responded to the presence of the invasive exotic species Artocarpus heterophyllus, the jackfruit tree. In the surroundings of Vila Dois Rios, Ilha Grande, RJ, 18 grids were established, 10 where the jackfruit tree was present and eight were it was absent. Previous results indicated that the composition and abundance of this small mammal community were altered by the presence and density of A. heterophyllus. One observed effect was the increased population size of the spiny-rat Trinomys dimidiatus within the grids where the jackfruit trees were present. Therefore we decided to create a mathematical model for this species, based on the Verhulst-Pearl logistic equation. Our objectives were i) to calculate the carrying capacity K based on real data of the involved species and the environment; ii) propose and evaluate a mathematical model to estimate the population size of T. dimidiatus based on the monthly seed production of jackfruit tree, Artocarpus heterophyllus and iii) determinate the minimum jackfruit tree seed production to maintain at least two T. dimidiatus individuals in one study grid. Our results indicated that the predicted values by the model for the carrying capacity K were significantly correlated with real data. The best fit was found considering 20~35% energy transfer efficiency between trophic levels. Within the scope of assumed premises, our model showed itself to be an adequate simulator for Trinomys dimidiatus populations where the invasive jackfruit tree is present.

Ecological Niche Model used to examine the distribution of an invasive, non-indigenous coral

All organisms have a set of ecological conditions (or niche) which they depend on to survive and establish in a given habitat. The ecological niche of a species limits its geographical distribution. In the particular case of non-indigenous species (NIS), the ecological requirements of the species impose boundaries on the potential distribution of the organism in the new receptor regions. This is a theoretical assumption implicit when Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are used to assess the potential distribution of NIS. This assumption has been questioned, given that in some cases niche shift may occur during the process of invasion. We used ENMs to investigate whether the model fit with data from the native range of the coral Tubastraea coccinea Lesson, 1829 successfully predicts its invasion in the Atlantic. We also identified which factors best explain the distribution of this NIS. The broad native distributional range of T. coccinea predicted the invaded sites well, especially along the Brazilian coast, the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. The occurrence of T. coccinea was positively related to calcite levels and negatively to eutrophy, but was rather unaffected to other variables that often limit other marine organisms, suggesting that this NIS has wide ecological limits, a trait typical of invasive species.

Responses of Chironomidae (Diptera; Insecta) to the exclusion of shrimps and Ephemeroptera in a coastal forest stream, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

In a benthic community on a continuous flat granite substrate in a third-order coastal forest stream, the dominant chironomid (Cricotopus) increased in number when shrimps (Macrobrachium olfersi and Potimirim glabra) and baetid ephemeropterans were excluded by electricity. The response appeared to be mediated by an increase in periphyton and sediments, rather than a reduction of direct predation or interference. Chironomids, periphyton and sediments decreased significantly compared to the control when shrimps only were excluded. Baetid ephemeropteran appeared to be the most important determinants of periphyton and sediment mass; the density of chironomids appeared to follow the quantity of periphyton and sediments.

Responses of leaf processing to impacts in streams in Atlantic rain forest, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil--a test of the biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationship?

The relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning has been intensely debated and researched in recent times. It is generally agreed that there is redundancy of species in ecosystems such that loss of species does not necessarily result in change in the functioning of the ecosystem in which they occur. However the state of our knowledge does not allow prediction of sensitivity or specificity of this relationship for any particular ecosystem. A widely-held opinion is that ecosystem functioning is relatively stable to environmental impact, whereas biodiversity is more sensitive. We tested this in streams of the Atlantic forest using leaf decomposition as an aspect of ecosystem functioning and measuring the diversity of the associated fauna. In lightly impacted streams of the urban park Parque Estadual da Pedra Branca, RJ, leaf processing rate of a hard-leaf species, Myrcia rostrata (Myrtaceae) was more than 50% slower than in "intact" streams at the biological reserve of Ilha Grande, RJ. Taxon diversity of fauna of the leaves was not significantly lower in the impacted than the intact streams. We construe this as preliminary evidence contrary to the notion that ecosystem functioning is less sensitive than biodiversity to impacts in this system.