POS0106 BILAG-2004 LDA AND BST LDA ARE VALID TREAT TO TARGET IN SLE

Background:

Low disease activity state has been defined using SLEDAI and used as treatment target in SLE. However, there has not been any such definition using BILAG-2004 index (BILAG-2004).

Objectives:

This study was to determine if low disease activity state according to BILAG-2004 is valid for use as treatment target in SLE. We also assessed disease activity longitudinally using BILAG-2004 systems tally (BST). BST is an alternative way of representing BILAG-2004 scores that combines the flexibility and simplification of numerical scoring of BILAG-2004 with the clinical intuitiveness of BILAG-2004 structure.

Methods:

This was a prospective multi-centre longitudinal study in the UK of an inception cohort of SLE patients (recruited within 12 months of achieving 1997 ACR revised criteria for SLE). Data were collected on disease activity (BILAG-2004 and BILAG2004-Pregnancy Index during pregnancy), SLICC/ACR DI (SDI), cumulative drug exposure and death at every visit. This study ran from 1st January 2005 to 31st December 2017. Four low disease activity states (LDA) were defined using BILAG-2004: 1) BILAG-2004 LDA when all 9 systems had scores of C, D or E on assessment (no Grade A or B), 2) BST LDA when there was persistent score of C, D or E in all 9 systems between 2 consecutive visits (equivalent to 2 consecutive visits with BILAG-2004 LDA), 3) BILAG-2004 Remission when all 9 systems had scores of D or E on assessment and 4) Persistent Remission when there was persistent score of D or E in all 9 systems between 2 consecutive visits. Longitudinal analysis using Poisson regression with random effects model was used with development of new damage as the outcome of interest. Gender, cardiovascular risk factors, antiphospholipid syndrome status and most drugs (except hydroxychloroquine, glucocorticoids, mycophenolate and cyclophosphamide) were excluded from the model as they were not associated with development of damage in univariate analysis.

Results:

273 patients were recruited (91.2% female, 59.3% Caucasian, 17.2% African/Caribbean, 17.2% South Asian) with mean age at recruitment of 38.5 years (SD 14.8). 97.8% had no damage at recruitment (2.2% had SDI score of 1). Median follow-up was 73.4 months (range: 1.8, 153.8) with total follow-up of 1767 patient-years. There were 13 deaths and 114 new damage items occurred during follow-up. There were 6674 assessments with disease activity score: 319 assessments with Grade A activity in 95 patients (84.6% had only 1 system with grade A, range: 1 - 4) and 1704 assessments with Grade A or B activity in 239 patients (78.7% had only 1 system with Grade A or B, range: 1 - 5).

BILAG-2004 LDA was achieved in 74.5% of assessments (from 271 patients). BILAG-2004 Remission occurred in 28.2% of assessments (from 234 patients).

6401 observations with BST were available (1 observation derived from change in activity between 2 consecutive assessments) and 63.7% were in BST LDA. There was no observation with Persistent Remission between consecutive visits.

Table 1 summarises multivariate analysis which showed BILAG-2004 LDA to be inversely associated with damage. Similar results were obtained with BILAG-2004 Remission (RR 0.60 with 95% CI 0.38, 0.96) and BST LDA (RR 0.65 with 95% CI 0.43, 0.99). Cumulative drug exposure since recruitment for mycophenolate was protective against new damage (RR 0.99 with 95% CI 0.99, 0.99).

Table 1.VariableRelative Risk (95% CI) for New DamageEthnicityAfro-Caribbean1.22 (0.68, 2.18)South Asian1.81 (0.97, 3.38)Others2.22 (0.63, 7.85)Age at diagnosis1.06 (1.04, 1.08)Prior SDI score0.68 (0.43, 1.06)BILAG-2004 LDA0.60 (0.39, 0.94)Hydroxychloroquine since last visit (per g)0.99 (0.98, 0.99)Steroids since last visit (per 100mg)1.02 (1.01, 1.03)Cyclophosphamide since last visit (per g)1.67 (1.15, 2.41)

Conclusion:

BILAG-2004 LDA and BST LDA are valid treatment targets in SLE. BILAG-2004 Remission and Persistent Remission are uncommon, which make them unrealistic as a treatment target.

References:

[1]Yee C. S., et al. The BILAG-2004 systems tally – a novel way of representing the BILAG-2004 index scores longitudinally. Rheumatology (Oxford) 2012; 51[11]: 2099-2105.

Acknowledgements :

Versus Arthritis, Vifor Pharma

Disclosure of Interests:

Chee-Seng Yee Consultant of: Bristol Myers Squibb, ImmuPharma, Grant/research support from: Vifor Pharma, Caroline Gordon Speakers bureau: UCB, Consultant of: Center for Disease Control, Astra-Zeneca, MGP, Sanofi and UCB, Mohammed Akil: None declared, Peter Lanyon: None declared, Christopher John Edwards Consultant of: Glaxo Smith Kline, Roche, Grant/research support from: Glaxo Smith Kline, Roche, David Isenberg: None declared, Anisur Rahman: None declared, Lee-Suan Teh: None declared, Sofia Tosounidou: None declared, Robert Stevens: None declared, Ahtiveer Prabu: None declared, Bridget Griffiths: None declared, Neil McHugh: None declared, Ian N. Bruce: None declared, Yasmeen Ahmad: None declared, Munther Khamashta: None declared, Vernon Farewell: None declared

POS0111 DEVELOPMENT OF DAMAGE AND MORTALITY IN AN INCEPTION COHORT OF SLE PATIENTS

Background:

There had been very limited data on the development of damage and mortality in an inception cohort of SLE patients who were recruited very soon after diagnosis.

Objectives:

This study aimed to analyse the development of damage and death in an inception cohort of SLE patients recruited within 1 year of diagnosis with up to 13 years of follow-up.

Methods:

This was a prospective multi-centre longitudinal study in the UK of SLE patients recruited within 12 months of achieving 1997 ACR revised criteria for SLE. Data were collected on BILAG-2004, BILAG2004-Pregnancy Index (during pregnancy), SLICC/ACR DI (SDI), cumulative drug exposure and death at every visit. Information on cardiovascular risk factors and antiphospholipid syndrome status were also collected. This study ran from 1st January 2005 to 31st December 2017. Mortality and development of damage were analysed.

Results:

There were 273 patients recruited (91.2% female, 59.3% Caucasian, 17.2% African/Caribbean, 17.2% South Asian) with mean age at recruitment of 38.5 years (SD 14.8). 97.8% had no damage at recruitment (2.2% had SDI score of 1). Median follow-up was 73.4 months (range: 1.8, 153.8) with total follow-up of 1767 patient-years.

There were 13 deaths (4.8%): 76.9% female, 84.6% Caucasian, 15.4% South Asian, mean age 62.6 years (± SD 15.8) and mean disease duration 3 years (± SD 1.8). Causes of death were cancer in 5 (38.5%), infection in 3 (23.1%), ischaemic heart disease in 1 (7.7%) and unknown in 4 (30.8%).

114 new damage items in 83 patients occurred during follow-up. The distribution of damage was musculoskeletal (21, 18.4%), ophthalmic (18, 15.8%), neuropsychiatric (18, 15.8%), renal (14, 12.3%), malignancy (12, 10.5%), cutaneous (7, 6.1%), GIT (7, 6.1%), cardiac (6, 5.3%), pulmonary (4, 3.5%), diabetes mellitus (4, 3.5%) and vascular (3, 2.6%). The rate of development of damage appears to be higher in the first 3 years which subsequently stabilised (Table 1).

Table 1.

Incidence rate of development of damage over period of follow-up at 3 yearly intervals

Period of follow-up (year)Person-years at riskNumber of new items of damageIncidence rate, per 1000 person-years (95% CI)0 – 3753.46079.6 (61.8, 102.6)3 – 6534.03158.1 (40.8, 82.6)6 – 9321.21237.4 (21.2, 35.8)9 – 12152.5532.8 (13.6, 78.7)> 125.90-

Conclusion:

Mortality is uncommon during the first 12 years of follow-up for newly diagnosed SLE patients. However, development of damage appears to be higher in the first 3 years before stabilizing to a lower rate subsequently.

Acknowledgements:

Versus Arthritis, VIfor Pharma

Disclosure of Interests:

Chee-Seng Yee Consultant of: Bristol Myer Squibb, ImmuPharma, Grant/research support from: Vifor Pharma, Vernon Farewell: None declared, Mohammed Akil: None declared, Peter Lanyon: None declared, Christopher John Edwards Consultant of: Glaxo Smith Kline, Roche, Grant/research support from: Glaxo Smith Kline, Roche, David Isenberg: None declared, Anisur Rahman: None declared, Lee-Suan Teh: None declared, Sofia Tosounidou: None declared, Robert Stevens: None declared, Ahtiveer Prabu: None declared, Bridget Griffiths: None declared, Neil McHugh: None declared, Ian N. Bruce: None declared, Yasmeen Ahmad: None declared, Munther Khamashta: None declared, Caroline Gordon Speakers bureau: UCB, Consultant of: Center for Disease Control, Astra-Zeneca, MGP, Sanofi and UCB

POS0705 BILAG-2004 INDEX ACTIVE DISEASE PREDICTS DEVELOPMENT OF DAMAGE

Background:

BILAG-2004 Index (BILAG-2004) has undergone construct and criterion validity and is used to assess disease activity in SLE. However, its predictive validity has yet to be established.

Objectives:

This study was to determine if disease activity according to BILAG-2004 was predictive of development of damage in an inception cohort.

Methods:

This was a prospective multi-centre longitudinal study in the UK of an inception cohort of SLE patients (recruited within 12 months of achieving 1997 ACR revised criteria for SLE). Data were collected on disease activity (BILAG-2004 and BILAG2004-Pregnancy Index during pregnancy), SLICC/ACR DI (SDI), cumulative drug exposure and death at every visit. Information on cardiovascular risk factors (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolaemia and smoking status) and antiphospholipid syndrome status were also collected. This study ran from 1st January 2005 to 31st December 2017. Longitudinal analysis using Poisson regression with random effects model was used to determine predictors of development of new damage. Death was not included in the analysis due to small numbers.

Results:

273 patients were recruited (91.2% female, 59.3% Caucasian, 17.2% African/Caribbean, 17.2% South Asian) with mean age at recruitment of 38.5 years (SD 14.8). 97.8% had no damage at recruitment (2.2% had SDI score of 1). Median follow-up was 73.4 months (range: 1.8, 153.8) with total follow-up of 1767 patient-years. Prevalence of risk factors during follow-up were: hypertension 23.1%, hypercholesterolaemia 35.5%, diabetes mellitus 5.5%, smoker or ex-smoker 44% and antiphospholipid syndrome 7%. There were 13 deaths and 114 new damage items occurred during follow-up.

There were 6674 assessments with disease activity score: 293 assessments with Grade A activity in 95 patients (92.4% had only 1 system with grade A, range: 1 - 4) and 1704 assessments with Grade A or B activity in 239 patients (78.7% had only 1 system with Grade A or B, range: 1 - 5).

Univariate analysis showed that gender, cardiovascular risk factors, antiphospholipid syndrome and most drug exposure (except hydroxychloroquine, glucocorticoids, mycophenolate and cyclophosphamide) were not associated with new damage (they were not included in the multivariate analysis).

Table 1 summarises multivariate analysis. Similar results were obtained when the disease activity variable was changed to Number of Systems with Grade A per assessment (RR 2.04 with 95% CI: 1.05, 3.94). Analysis using BILAG-2004 systems tally showed that persistent minimal disease was protective of development of damage (RR 0.74 with 95% CI: 0.57, 0.95). Cumulative drug exposure since recruitment for mycophenolate was protective against new damage (RR 0.99 with 95% CI 0.99, 0.99) but not cumulative drug exposure since last visit.

VariableRisk Ratio (95% CI) for New DamageEthnicity Afro-Caribbean1.21 (0.68, 2.17) South Asian1.81 (0.97, 3.36) Others2.37 (0.68, 8.20)Age at diagnosis1.06 (1.04, 1.08)Prior SDI score0.69 (0.44, 1.08)Constitutional A or Bunreliable estimate due to low numbersMucocutaneous A or B1.80 (1.04, 3.14)Neuropsychiatric A or B4.68 (1.68, 13.05)Musculoskeletal A or B0.76 (0.33, 1.73)Cardiorespiratory A or B0.35 (0.05, 2.59)GIT A or Bunreliable estimate due to low numbersOphthalmic A or Bunreliable estimate due to low numbersRenal A or B2.08 (0.99, 4.40)Haematological A or B4.37 (1.15, 16.65)Hydroxychloroquine since last visit (per g)0.99 (0.98, 0.99)Prednisolone since last visit (per 100mg)1.01 (1.00, 1.02)Cyclophosphamide since last visit (per g)1.42 (0.94, 2.14)

Conclusion:

Active disease (Grade A or B) according to BILAG-2004 index is predictive of development of new damage in SLE patients.

References:

[1]Yee C. S., et al. The BILAG-2004 systems tally – a novel way of representing the BILAG-2004 index scores longitudinally. Rheumatology (Oxford) 2012; 51[11]: 2099-2105.

Acknowledgements:

Versus Arthritis and Vifor Pharma

Disclosure of Interests:

Chee-Seng Yee Consultant of: Bristol Myers Squibb, ImmuPharma, Grant/research support from: Vifor Pharma, Vernon Farewell: None declared, Mohammed Akil: None declared, Peter Lanyon: None declared, Christopher John Edwards Consultant of: Glaxo Smith Kline, Roche, Grant/research support from: Glaxo Smith Kline, Roche, David Isenberg: None declared, Anisur Rahman: None declared, Lee-Suan Teh: None declared, Sofia Tosounidou: None declared, Robert Stevens: None declared, Ahtiveer Prabu: None declared, Bridget Griffiths: None declared, Neil McHugh: None declared, Ian N. Bruce: None declared, Yasmeen Ahmad: None declared, Munther Khamashta: None declared, Caroline Gordon Speakers bureau: UCB, Consultant of: Center for Disease Control, Astra-Zeneca, MGP, Sanofi and UCB

Pulmonary Metastasectomy in Colorectal Cancer: updated analysis of 93 randomized patients - control survival is much better than previously assumed

AIM

Lung metastases from colorectal cancer are resected in selected patients in the belief that this confers a significant survival advantage. It is generally assumed that the 5-year survival of these patients would be near zero without metastasectomy. We tested the clinical effectiveness of this practice in Pulmonary Metastasectomy in Colorectal Cancer (PulMiCC), a randomized, controlled noninferiority trial.

METHOD

Multidisciplinary teams in 14 hospitals recruited patients with resectable lung metastases into a two-arm trial. Randomization was remote and stratified according to site, with minimization for age, sex, primary cancer stage, interval since primary resection, prior liver involvement, number of metastases and carcinoembryonic antigen level. The trial management group was blind to patient allocation until after intention-to-treat analysis.

RESULTS

From 2010 to 2016, 93 participants were randomized. These patients were 35-86 years of age and had between one and six lung metastases at a median of 2.7 years after colorectal cancer resection; 29% had prior liver metastasectomy. The patient groups were well matched and the characteristics of these groups were similar to those of observational studies. The median survival after metastasectomy was 3.5 (95% CI: 3.1-6.6) years compared with 3.8 (95% CI: 3.1-4.6) years for controls. The estimated unadjusted hazard ratio for death within 5 years, comparing the metastasectomy group with the control group, was 0.93 (95% CI: 0.56-1.56). Use of chemotherapy or local ablation was infrequent and similar in each group.

CONCLUSION

Patients in the control group (who did not undergo lung metastasectomy) have better survival than is assumed. Survival in the metastasectomy group is comparable with the many single-arm follow-up studies. The groups were well matched with features similar to those reported in case series.

Do drugs offering only PFS maintain quality of life sufficiently from a patient's perspective? Results from AVALPROFS (Assessing the 'VALue' to patients of PROgression Free Survival) study

Purpose

Trials of novel drugs used in advanced disease often show only progression-free survival or modest overall survival benefits. Hypothetical studies suggest that stabilisation of metastatic disease and/or symptom burden are worth treatment-related side effects. We examined this premise contemporaneously using qualitative and quantitative methods.

Methods

Patients with metastatic cancers expected to live > 6 months and prescribed drugs aimed at cancer control were interviewed: at baseline, at 6 weeks, at progression, and if treatment was stopped for toxicity. They also completed Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy (FACT-G) plus Anti-Angiogenesis (AA) subscale questionnaires at baseline then monthly for 6 months.

Results

Ninety out of 120 (75%) eligible patients participated: 41 (45%) remained on study for 6 months, 36 progressed or died, 4 had treatment breaks, and 9 withdrew due to toxicity. By 6 weeks, 66/69 (96%) patients were experiencing side effects which impacted their activities. Low QoL scores at baseline did not predict a higher risk of death or dropout. At 6-week interviews, as the side effect severity increased, patients were significantly less inclined to view the benefit of cancer control as worthwhile (X² = 50.7, P < 0.001). Emotional well-being initially improved from baseline by 10 weeks, then gradually returned to baseline levels.

Conclusion

Maintaining QoL is vital to most patients with advanced cancer so minimising treatment-related side effects is essential. As side effect severity increased, drugs that controlled cancer for short periods were not viewed as worthwhile. Patients need to have the therapeutic aims of further anti-cancer treatment explained honestly and sensitively.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s00520-018-4273-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Meta-analysis of colorectal cancer follow-up after potentially curative resection

Background

After potentially curative resection of primary colorectal cancer, patients may be monitored by measurement of carcinoembryonic antigen and/or CT to detect asymptomatic metastatic disease earlier.

Methods

A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to find evidence for the clinical effectiveness of monitoring in advancing the diagnosis of recurrence and its effect on survival. MEDLINE (Ovid), Embase, the Cochrane Library, Web of Science and other databases were searched for randomized comparisons of increased intensity monitoring compared with a contemporary standard policy after resection of primary colorectal cancer.

Results

There were 16 randomized comparisons, 11 with published survival data. More intensive monitoring advanced the diagnosis of recurrence by a median of 10 (i.q.r. 5–24) months. In ten of 11 studies the authors reported no demonstrable difference in overall survival. Seven RCTs, published from 1995 to 2016, randomly assigned 3325 patients to a monitoring protocol made more intensive by introducing new methods or increasing the frequency of existing follow-up protocols versus less invasive monitoring. No detectable difference in overall survival was associated with more intensive monitoring protocols (hazard ratio 0·98, 95 per cent c.i. 0·87 to 1·11).

Conclusion

Based on pooled data from randomized trials published from 1995 to 2016, the anticipated survival benefit from surgical treatment resulting from earlier detection of metastases has not been achieved.

The functional MICA-129 polymorphism is associated with skin but not joint manifestations of psoriatic disease independently of HLA-B and HLA-C

A methionine/valine polymorphism at amino acid 129 of the major histocompatibility complex class I chain-related gene A (MICA-129) categorizes alleles into strong and weak binders of the natural killer (NK) and T-cell receptor NKG2D. We investigated whether MICA-129 is differentially associated with skin and joint manifestations of psoriatic disease (PsD) independently of human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-C and HLA-B in patients and controls from Toronto and St. John's. The MICA-129 methionine (Met) allele, particularly Met/Met homozygosity, was strongly associated with both cutaneous psoriasis (PsC) and psoriatic arthritis (PsA) independently of HLA-B and HLA-C in Toronto patients, and was also associated with PsA in St. John's patients, but with no additional effect of Met/Met homozygosity. No association remained after adjustment for HLA alleles in St. John's patients. MICA-129 was not associated with PsA when compared with PsC. We conclude that MICA-129 is a marker of skin manifestations of PsD that is independent of HLA class I in Toronto patients.

Drivers and barriers to patient participation in RCTs

BACKGROUND

Recruitment of patients into randomised clinical trials (RCTs) is essential for treatment evaluation. Appreciation of the barriers and drivers towards participation is important for trial design, communication and information provision.

METHOD

As part of an intervention to facilitate effective multidisciplinary team communication about RCTs, cancer patients completed two study-specific questionnaires following trial discussions. One questionnaire examined reasons why patients accepted or declined trial entry, the other perceptions about their health-care professionals' (HCPs) information giving.

RESULTS

Questionnaires were completed by 74% (358/486) of patients approached; of these 81% (291/358) had joined an RCT, 16% (56/358) had declined and 3% (11/358) were undecided. Trial participation status of the 128 patients not returning questionnaires is unknown. Trial acceptance was not dependent on disease stage, tumour type, sex or age. Satisfaction with trial information and HCPs' communication was generally very good, irrespective of participation decisions. The primary reason given for trial acceptance was altruism (40%; 110/275), and for declining, trust in the doctor (28%; 12/43). Decliners preferred doctors to choose their treatment rather than be randomised (54% vs 39%; P<0.027). Acceptors were more likely to perceive doctors as wanting them to join trials (54% vs 30%; P<0.001). Trial type, that is, standard treatment vs novel or different durations of treatment, also influenced acceptance rates.

CONCLUSION

The drivers and barriers to trial participation are partly related to trial design. Unease about randomisation and impact of duration on treatment efficacy are barriers for some. Altruism and HCPs' perceived attitudes are powerful influencing factors.

Autoantibodies as biomarkers for the prediction of neuropsychiatric events in systemic lupus erythematosus

OBJECTIVE

Neuropsychiatric events occur unpredictably in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and most biomarker associations remain to be prospectively validated. This study examined a disease inception cohort of 1047 SLE patients to determine which autoantibodies at enrolment predicted subsequent neuropsychiatric events.

METHODS

Patients with a recent SLE diagnosis were assessed prospectively for up to 10 years for neuropsychiatric events using the American College of Rheumatology case definitions. Decision rules of graded stringency determined whether neuropsychiatric events were attributable to SLE. Associations between the first neuropsychiatric event and baseline autoantibodies (lupus anticoagulant (LA), anticardiolipin, anti-β(2) glycoprotein-I, anti-ribosomal P and anti-NR2 glutamate receptor) were tested by Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

Disease duration at enrolment was 5.4 ± 4.2 months, follow-up was 3.6 ± 2.6 years. Patients were 89.1% female with mean (±SD) age 35.2 ± 13.7 years. 495/1047 (47.3%) developed one or more neuropsychiatric event (total 917 events). Neuropsychiatric events attributed to SLE were 15.4% (model A) and 28.2% (model B). At enrolment 21.9% of patients had LA, 13.4% anticardiolipin, 15.1% anti-β(2) glycoprotein-I, 9.2% anti-ribosomal P and 13.7% anti-NR2 antibodies. LA at baseline was associated with subsequent intracranial thrombosis (total n=22) attributed to SLE (model B) (HR 2.54, 95% CI 1.08 to 5.94). Anti-ribosomal P antibody was associated with subsequent psychosis (total n=14) attributed to SLE (model B) (HR 3.92, 95% CI 1.23 to 12.5, p=0.02). Other autoantibodies did not predict neuropsychiatric events.

CONCLUSION

In a prospective study of 1047 recently diagnosed SLE patients, LA and anti-ribosomal P antibodies are associated with an increased future risk of intracranial thrombosis and lupus psychosis, respectively.

Clinicians' attitudes towards clinical trials of cancer therapy

Background:

Patient accrual into cancer clinical trials remains at low levels. This survey elicited attitudes and practices of cancer clinicians towards clinical trials.

Method:

The 43-item Clinicians Attitudes to Clinical Trials Questionnaire was completed by participants in an intervention study aimed at improving multi-disciplinary involvement in randomised trials. Responses from 13 items were summed to form a research-orientation score.

Results:

Eighty-seven clinicians (78%) returned questionnaires. Physicians, more often than surgeons, chose to prioritise prolonging a patient's life, recruited ⩾50% of patients into trials and attended more research-focussed conferences. Clinicians at specialist centres were more positive about trials with no-treatment arms than those at district general hospitals, more likely to believe clinician, rather than patient reluctance to participate was the greater obstacle to trial accrual, and preferred national and international to local recognition. Clinicians belonging to breast and colorectal teams were less disappointed about not enrolling patients in trials and more accepting of no-treatment arm trials. Research orientation was higher in physicians than surgeons and higher in specialist centres than district hospitals.

Conclusions:

This study provides greater understanding of clinicians’ attitudes to trials. Results have been used to inform training interventions for clinicians targeting the problem of low and selective accrual.

SF-36 summary and subscale scores are reliable outcomes of neuropsychiatric events in systemic lupus erythematosus

OBJECTIVE

To examine change in health-related quality of life in association with clinical outcomes of neuropsychiatric events in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).

METHODS

An international study evaluated newly diagnosed SLE patients for neuropsychiatric events attributed to SLE and non-SLE causes. The outcome of events was determined by a physician-completed seven-point scale and compared with patient-completed Short Form 36 (SF-36) health survey questionnaires. Statistical analysis used linear mixed-effects regression models with patient-specific random effects.

RESULTS

274 patients (92% female; 68% Caucasian), from a cohort of 1400, had one or more neuropsychiatric event in which the interval between assessments was 12.3 ± 2 months. The overall difference in change between visits in mental component summary (MCS) scores of the SF-36 was significant (p<0.0001) following adjustments for gender, ethnicity, centre and previous score. A consistent improvement in neuropsychiatric status (N=295) was associated with an increase in the mean (SD) adjusted MCS score of 3.66 (0.89) in SF-36 scores. Between paired visits when the neuropsychiatric status consistently deteriorated (N=30), the adjusted MCS score decreased by 4.00 (1.96). For the physical component summary scores the corresponding changes were +1.73 (0.71) and -0.62 (1.58) (p<0.05), respectively. Changes in SF-36 subscales were in the same direction (p<0.05; with the exception of role physical). Sensitivity analyses confirmed these findings. Adjustment for age, education, medications, SLE disease activity, organ damage, disease duration, attribution and characteristics of neuropsychiatric events did not substantially alter the results.

CONCLUSION

Changes in SF-36 summary and subscale scores, in particular those related to mental health, are strongly associated with the clinical outcome of neuropsychiatric events in SLE patients.

Prospective analysis of neuropsychiatric events in an international disease inception cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus

OBJECTIVES

To determine the frequency, accrual, attribution and outcome of neuropsychiatric (NP) events and impact on quality of life over 3 years in a large inception cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).

METHODS

The study was conducted by the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics. Patients were enrolled within 15 months of SLE diagnosis. NP events were identified using the American College of Rheumatology case definitions, and decision rules were derived to determine the proportion of NP disease attributable to SLE. The outcome of NP events was recorded and patient-perceived impact determined by the SF-36.

RESULTS

1206 patients (89.6% female) with a mean (+/-SD) age of 34.5+/-13.2 years were included in the study. The mean disease duration at enrollment was 5.4+/-4.2 months. Over a mean follow-up of 1.9+/-1.2 years, 486/1206 (40.3%) patients had > or =1 NP events, which were attributed to SLE in 13.0-23.6% of patients using two a priori decision rules. The frequency of individual NP events varied from 47.1% (headache) to 0% (myasthenia gravis). The outcome was significantly better for those NP events attributed to SLE, especially if they occurred within 1.5 years of the diagnosis of SLE. Patients with NP events, regardless of attribution, had significantly lower summary scores for both mental and physical health over the study.

CONCLUSIONS

NP events in patients with SLE are of variable frequency, most commonly present early in the disease course and adversely impact patients' quality of life over time. Events attributed to non-SLE causes are more common than those due to SLE, although the latter have a more favourable outcome.

Pulmonary metastasectomy in colorectal cancer: time for a trial

Pulmonary metastasectomy is undertaken for a range of cancers. The questions we raise here are specifically related to colorectal cancer, the commonest tumour for which pulmonary metastasectomy is undertaken. The primary objective of metastasectomy is to increase survival. There are no randomised trials in support of this practice nor are there any other forms of controlled studies. We present a critical look at the assumption of efficacy for this surgery and propose that a trial is needed and suggest a trial design.

Short-term outcome of neuropsychiatric events in systemic lupus erythematosus upon enrollment into an international inception cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the short-term outcome of neuropsychiatric (NP) events upon enrollment into an international inception cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).

METHODS

The study was performed by the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics. Patients were enrolled within 15 months of SLE diagnosis and NP events were characterized using the American College of Rheumatology case definitions. Decision rules were derived to identify NP events attributable to SLE. Physician outcome scores of NP events and patient-derived mental component summary (MCS) and physical component summary (PCS) scores of the Short Form 36 were recorded.

RESULTS

There were 890 patients (88.7% female) with a mean +/- SD age of 33.8 +/- 13.4 years and mean disease duration of 5.3 +/- 4.2 months. Within the enrollment window, 271 (33.5%) of 890 patients had at least 1 NP event encompassing 15 NP syndromes. NP events attributed to SLE varied from 16.5% to 33.9% using alternate attribution models and occurred in 6.0-11.5% of patients. Outcome scores for NP events attributed to SLE were significantly better than for NP events due to non-SLE causes. Higher global disease activity was associated with worse outcomes. MCS scores were lower in patients with NP events, regardless of attribution, and were also lower in patients with diffuse and central NP events. There was a significant association between physician outcome scores and patient MCS scores only for NP events attributed to SLE.

CONCLUSION

In SLE patients, the short-term outcome of NP events is determined by both the characteristics and attribution of the events.

Factorial randomised controlled trial of glucocorticoids and combination disease modifying drugs in early rheumatoid arthritis

OBJECTIVE

Treating early active rheumatoid arthritis (RA) with disease modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD) monotherapy achieves incomplete outcomes and intensive treatment seems preferable. As the relative benefits of combining two DMARDs, one DMARD with glucocorticoids and two DMARDs with glucocorticoids are uncertain we defined them in a factorial trial.

METHODS

A 2-year randomised double-blind factorial trial in patients with RA within 2 years of diagnosis treated with methotrexate studied the benefits of added ciclosporin, 9 months intensive prednisolone or both (triple therapy). The primary outcome was the number of patients with new erosions. Secondary outcomes included Larsen's x-ray scores, disability, quality of life and adverse events.

FINDINGS

1391 patients were screened and 467 randomised. Over 2 years 132 (28%) changed therapy and 88 (19%) were lost to follow-up. The number of patients with new erosions was reduced by nearly half by adding ciclosporin or prednisolone (p = 0.01 and 0.03); both treatments reduced increases in Larsen's x-ray scores by over 2 units (p = 0.008 and 0.003). A further reduction in erosive damage was seen with combined use of both treatments. Their effects on erosive damage appeared independent. Triple therapy reduced disability and improved quality of life compared with methotrexate; ciclosporin and prednisolone acted synergistically. More patients withdrew because of adverse events with triple therapy, without an increase in serious adverse effects.

CONCLUSIONS

This study confirms the existence of a "window of opportunity" in early RA, when intensive combination therapy produces sustained benefits on damage and disability. Although methotrexate-prednisolone combinations reduce erosive damage, the synergistic effect of two DMARDs is needed to improve quality of life.

Autoantibodies and neuropsychiatric events at the time of systemic lupus erythematosus diagnosis: results from an international inception cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To examine, in an inception cohort of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients, the association between neuropsychiatric (NP) events and anti-ribosomal P (anti-P), antiphospholipid (lupus anticoagulant [LAC], anticardiolipin), anti-beta2-glycoprotein I, and anti-NR2 glutamate receptor antibodies.

METHODS

NP events were identified using the American College of Rheumatology case definitions and clustered into central/peripheral and diffuse/focal events. Attribution of NP events to SLE was determined using decision rules of differing stringency. Autoantibodies were measured without knowledge of NP events or their attribution.

RESULTS

Four hundred twelve patients were studied (87.4% female; mean +/- SD age 34.9 +/- 13.5 years, mean +/- SD disease duration 5.0 +/- 4.2 months). There were 214 NP events in 133 patients (32.3%). The proportion of NP events attributed to SLE varied from 15% to 36%. There was no association between autoantibodies and NP events overall. However, the frequency of anti-P antibodies in patients with central NP events attributed to SLE was 4 of 20 (20%), versus 3 of 107 (2.8%) in patients with other NP events and 24 of 279 (8.6%) in those with no NP events (P = 0.04). Among patients with diffuse NP events, 3 of 11 had anti-P antibodies (27%), compared with 4 of 111 patients with other NP events (3.6%) and 24 of 279 of those with no NP events (8.6%) (P = 0.02). Specific clinical-serologic associations were found between anti-P and psychosis attributed to SLE (P = 0.02) and between LAC and cerebrovascular disease attributed to SLE (P = 0.038). There was no significant association between other autoantibodies and NP events.

CONCLUSION

Clinically distinct NP events attributed to SLE and occurring around the time of diagnosis were found to be associated with anti-P antibodies and LAC. This suggests that there are different autoimmune pathogenetic mechanisms, although low sensitivity limits the clinical application of testing for these antibodies.

Neuropsychiatric events at the time of diagnosis of systemic lupus erythematosus: An international inception cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To describe the prevalence, characteristics, attribution, and clinical significance of neuropsychiatric (NP) events in an international inception cohort of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients.

METHODS

The study was conducted by the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC). Patients were enrolled within 15 months of fulfilling the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) SLE classification criteria. All NP events within a predefined enrollment window were identified using the ACR case definitions of 19 NP syndromes. Decision rules were derived to determine the proportion of NP disease attributable to SLE. Clinical significance was determined using the Short Form 36 (SF-36) Health Survey and the SLICC/ACR Damage Index (SDI).

RESULTS

A total of 572 patients (88% female) were recruited, with a mean +/- SD age of 35 +/- 14 years. The mean +/- SD disease duration was 5.2 +/- 4.2 months. Within the enrollment window, 158 of 572 patients (28%) had at least 1 NP event. In total, there were 242 NP events that encompassed 15 of 19 NP syndromes. The proportion of NP events attributed to SLE varied from 19% to 38% using alternate attribution models and occurred in 6.1-11.7% of patients. Those with NP events, regardless of attribution, had lower scores on the SF-36 and higher SDI scores compared with patients with no NP events.

CONCLUSION

Twenty-eight percent of SLE patients experienced at least 1 NP event around the time of diagnosis of SLE, of which only a minority were attributed to SLE. Regardless of attribution, the occurrence of NP events was associated with reduced quality of life and increased organ damage.

TNFalpha polymorphisms and risk of psoriatic arthritis

BACKGROUND

Tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNFalpha) is a cytokine of critical importance in psoriatic arthritis.

OBJECTIVES

(1) To examine the association between TNFalpha promoter gene polymorphisms and psoriatic arthritis in two well characterised Canadian populations with the disease; (2) to carry out a meta-analysis of all TNFalpha association studies in white psoriatic arthritis populations.

METHODS

DNA samples were genotyped for five TNF variants by time of flight mass spectrometry using the Sequenom platform. All five single nucleotide polymorphisms were in the 5' flanking region of TNFalpha gene at the following positions: -1031 (T-->C), -863 (C-->A), -857 (C-->T), -308 (G-->A), and -238 (G-->A). Primary analyses were based on logistic regression. Summary estimates of disease/genotype relations from several studies were derived from random effects meta-analyses.

RESULTS

237 psoriatic arthritis subjects and 103 controls from Newfoundland and 203 psoriatic arthritis subjects and 101 controls from Toronto were studied. A combined analysis of data from both populations, showed a significant association between disease status and the -238(A) variant (p=0.01). The meta-analysis estimate for the -238(A) TNFalpha variant in eight psoriatic arthritis populations was also significant (odds ratio=2.29 (95% confidence interval, 1.48 to 3.55)).

CONCLUSIONS

Analysis of TNFalpha variants in psoriatic arthritis populations shows that the -238 (A) variant is a significant risk factor for this disease.

BILAG 2004. Development and initial validation of an updated version of the British Isles Lupus Assessment Group's disease activity index for patients with systemic lupus erythematosus

OBJECTIVE

To devise a more discriminating version of the British Isles Lupus Assessment Group (BILAG) disease activity index and to show that it is reliable.

METHODS

A nominal consensus approach was undertaken by members of BILAG to update and improve the BILAG lupus disease activity index. The index has been revised following intense consultations over a 1-yr period. It has been assessed in two real-patient exercises. These involved patients with diverse clinical features of SLE, including gastrointestinal, hepatic and ophthalmic problems, which the earlier versions of the index did not fully take into account. Reliability in terms of the ability to differentiate patients was assessed by calculating intraclass correlation coefficients. The level of agreement between physicians was determined by calculating the ratio of estimates of the standard error (SE) attributable to the physicians to the SE attributable to the patients.

RESULTS

Good reliability and high levels of physician agreement were observed in one or both exercises in the constitutional, mucocutaneous, neurological, cardiorespiratory, renal, ophthalmic and haematological systems. In contrast, the musculoskeletal system did not score as well, although providing more clear-cut glossary definitions should greatly improve the situation.

CONCLUSIONS

Some significant changes in the BILAG disease activity index to assess patients with SLE are proposed. The process of demonstrating validity and reliability has started with these two exercises assessing real patients. Further validation studies are under way. BILAG 2004 is likely to be valuable in clinical trials assessing new therapies for the treatment of SLE, as it provides a more comprehensive system-based disease activity measure than has been available previously.

Discussing randomised clinical trials of cancer therapy: evaluation of a Cancer Research UK training programme

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate a training intervention aimed at improving healthcare professionals' communication with cancer patients about randomised clinical trials.

DESIGN

Before and after evaluation of training programme.

SETTING

Members of the National Cancer Research Network, Scottish Trials Network, and the Welsh Cancer Trials Network.

PARTICIPANTS

101 healthcare professionals (33 clinicians and 68 research nurses).

INTERVENTION

Four modules delivered by a trained facilitator using videotapes and interactive exercises to cover general issues about discussing randomised clinical trials with patients, problems specific to adjuvant trials, trials with palliation as the goal, and trials where patients had a strong preference for one treatment arm.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Before and after the intervention, participants were videotaped discussing a trial with an actor portraying a patient. These consultations were assessed for presence of information required by good clinical practice guidelines. The actor patients gave an assessment after each interview. Participants reported their self confidence about key aspects of trial discussion.

RESULTS

Analysis of the videotaped consultations showed that, after intervention, significantly more participants displayed key communication behaviours such as explaining randomisation (69 v 81, odds ratio 2.33, P = 0.033), checking patients' understanding (11 v 31, odds ratio 3.22, P = 0.002), and discussing standard treatment (73 v 88, odds ratio 4.75, P = 0.005) and side effects (69 v 85, odds ratio 3.29, P = 0.006). Participants' self confidence increased significantly (P < 0.001) across all areas. Actor patients' ratings of participants' communication showed significant improvements for 12/15 key items.

CONCLUSION

This intensive 8 hour intervention significantly improved participants' confidence and competence when communicating about randomised clinical trials.

International consensus outcome measures for patients with idiopathic inflammatory myopathies. Development and initial validation of myositis activity and damage indices in patients with adult onset disease

OBJECTIVE

To devise new tools to assess activity and damage in patients with idiopathic myopathies (IIM).

METHODS

An international multidisciplinary consensus effort to standardize the conduct and reporting of the myositis clinical trials has been established. Two tools, known as the myositis intention to treat index (MITAX) and the myositis disease activity assessment visual analogue scale (MYOACT), have been developed to capture activity in patients with IIM. In addition, the myositis damage index (MDI) has been devised to assess the extent and severity of damage developing in different organs and systems. These measures have been reviewed by the myositis experts participating in the International Myositis Assessment and Clinical Studies (IMACS) group and have been found to have good face validity and to be comprehensive. The instruments were assessed in two real patient exercises involving patients with adult dermatomyositis and inclusion body myositis.

RESULTS

The reliability of MITAX, MYOACT and MDI, measured by the intraclass correlation coefficient among the physicians, and the inter-rater reliability, as assessed by variation in the physicians' rating of patients, was fair to good for most aspects of the tools. Reliability and inter-rater agreement improved at the second exercise after the participants had completed additional training.

CONCLUSIONS

The MITAX, MYOACT and MDI tools, which are now undergoing validity testing, should enhance the consistency, comprehensiveness and reliability of disease activity and damage assessment in patients with myositis.

International consensus outcome measures for patients with idiopathic inflammatory myopathies. Development and initial validation of myositis activity and damage indices in patients with adult onset disease

OBJECTIVE

To devise new tools to assess activity and damage in patients with idiopathic myopathies (IIM).

METHODS

An international multidisciplinary consensus effort to standardize the conduct and reporting of the myositis clinical trials has been established. Two tools, known as the myositis intention to treat index (MITAX) and the myositis disease activity assessment visual analogue scale (MYOACT), have been developed to capture activity in patients with IIM. In addition, the myositis damage index (MDI) has been devised to assess the extent and severity of damage developing in different organs and systems. These measures have been reviewed by the myositis experts participating in the International Myositis Assessment and Clinical Studies (IMACS) group and have been found to have good face validity and to be comprehensive. The instruments were assessed in two real patient exercises involving patients with adult dermatomyositis and inclusion body myositis.

RESULTS

The reliability of MITAX, MYOACT and MDI, measured by the intraclass correlation coefficient among the physicians, and the inter-rater reliability, as assessed by variation in the physicians' rating of patients, was fair to good for most aspects of the tools. Reliability and inter-rater agreement improved at the second exercise after the participants had completed additional training.

CONCLUSIONS

The MITAX, MYOACT and MDI tools, which are now undergoing validity testing, should enhance the consistency, comprehensiveness and reliability of disease activity and damage assessment in patients with myositis.

Enduring impact of communication skills training: results of a 12-month follow-up

The efficacy of a communication skills training programme was shown through a randomised trial. Oncologists (N=160) from 34 cancer centres were allocated to written feedback plus course; course alone; written feedback alone or control. Each clinician had 6 – 10 interviews with patients videotaped at baseline and 3 months postintervention. Analysis of videotapes revealed improvements in the communication skills of clinicians randomised to training (n=80) compared with others (n=80). A 12-month follow-up assessment is reported here. Robust Poisson conditional analyses of counts of changes in communication behaviours revealed no demonstrable attrition in those who had shown improvement previously, including fewer leading questions, appropriate use of focused and open-ended questions and responses to patient cues. Additional skills, not apparent at 3 months, were now evident; the estimated effect sizes corresponded to 81% fewer interruptions (P=0.001) and increased summarising of information to 38% (P=0.038). However, expressions of empathy (54%, P=0.001) declined. The overall results show that 12 – 15 months postintervention, clinicians had integrated key communication skills into clinical practice and were applying others. This is the first RCT to show an enduring effect of communication skills training with transfer into the clinic.

Proposed preliminary core set measures for disease outcome assessment in adult and juvenile idiopathic inflammatory myopathies

In order to develop a preliminary core set of disease outcome measures for use in clinical trials of idiopathic inflammatory myopathies (IIM), we evaluated those measures used in previous trials, assessed the validation of published instruments and discussed these at an international consensus conference. The initial proposals were further refined by a multidisciplinary group of adult and paediatric specialists experienced in IIM using the Delphi method. The proposed preliminary core set of disease activity measures consists of five domains: physician and patient/parent global assessments of disease activity; muscle strength; physical function; serum activity of muscle enzymes; and an assessment tool to capture extra-skeletal muscle disease activity. The group recommended further development of a core set of disease damage measures for assessment of persistent changes in anatomy, pathology and function of at least 6 months' duration. The group recommended that patient-reported outcomes should include generic health-related quality of life assessments using the Medical Outcomes Study 36-item Short Form (SF-36) health survey in adult IIM patients and a validated quality of life instrument for paediatric patients. We propose the core set of outcome measures as a minimum group of assessments to include in all IIM therapeutic studies. The use of this core set should assist in standardizing outcome measurement and in optimizing therapeutic trials in myositis.

Methodological issues in randomized controlled trials

There is increasing emphasis on the need to practise evidence-based medicine and the strongest evidence comes from well designed and well-conducted randomized controlled trials. Every component is important for the success of a clinical trial; if the design or sample size is inappropriate, then the results of the study will be unreliable, however well the study is conducted. Conversely a well-designed study may founder because of poor outcome measurement or unacceptably high subject loss. The advantages of a well-designed trial apply equally to studies with short term outcomes and to those requiring long-term follow up. This paper therefore focuses on general methodological issues with a discussion, where appropriate, of the special considerations associated with long-term follow-up. This emphasis is motivated by the belief that a trial with methodological weaknesses is both a waste of resources and unethical. Anyone planning to undertake a randomized controlled trial should consult a more comprehensive text [1-4]. Here, some selected issues are highlighted with the choice of topics reflecting the experience and interests of the authors.

Randomized trials versus observational studies in adolescent pregnancy prevention

The objective of this study is to compare the results of randomized trials and observational studies of interventions to prevent adolescent pregnancy. We identified published and unpublished reports through computerized searches of CATLINE, CINAHL, CONFERENCE PAPERS INDEX, DISSERTATION ABSTRACTS ONLINE, EMBASE, ERIC, MEDLINE, NTIS, POPLINE, PsycINFO, and SOCIOLOGICAL ABSTRACTS; manual searches of eight relevant journals; reference lists from primary articles; and contact with content experts. We included randomized trials and observational studies that evaluated the impact of primary prevention interventions including sex education classes, school-based clinics, free-standing clinics, physician/nurse practitioner practice-based service, improved access, and community-based programs on four outcomes: sexual intercourse, birth control use, responsible sexual behavior, or pregnancy in adolescents. One investigator abstracted the data and a second conducted a detailed review of the abstraction. We identified 13 randomized trials and 17 observational studies. We generated estimates of the impact of the interventions separately for males and females for all four outcomes for both observational studies and randomized trials. For six of the eight outcomes the summary odds ratios for the observational studies showed a significant intervention benefit (P<0.05) while the randomized trials did not show a benefit for any outcome in either females or males. The difference between the results of the observational studies and randomized trials was statistically significant in two of the eight outcomes (P<0.05 for initiation of intercourse and pregnancy in females). Observational studies yield systematically greater estimates of treatment effects than randomized trials of adolescent pregnancy prevention interventions. Public policy or individual patient treatment decisions should be based on observational studies only when randomized trials are unavailable and only with careful consideration of possible biases.

The association of socio-economic status, race, psychosocial factors and outcome in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus

OBJECTIVE

To determine the relationship between socio-economic status, race, psychosocial factors and outcome in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).

METHODS

One hundred and ninety-five patients with SLE were studied at two centres in the UK (London and Birmingham). Information about sociodemographics, income, employment status, social support and satisfaction with care was obtained. Outcomes were assessed by end-organ damage, disease activity and employment status.

RESULTS

Non-Caucasian race, longer disease duration, higher disease activity and lower level of education were associated with more organ damage in SLE. More satisfaction with access to care and interpersonal aspects of care, but less satisfaction with time spent with doctors, were also associated with more damage. Very long disease duration was associated with higher disease activity. Patients with higher disease activity, lower level of education and from the Birmingham centre were more likely not to be working due to their lupus.

CONCLUSION

Race and socio-economic status, as well as clinical and psychosocial factors, determine outcome in SLE.

Correlation of 9G4 idiotope with disease activity in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus

OBJECTIVE

To compare the levels of the 9G4 idiotope (9G4 Id) in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients with a detailed disease activity index, the British Isles Lupus Assessment Group (BILAG) index, and serological parameters of disease activity by ds DNA antibody levels and serum C3 concentrations.

METHODS

In a cross sectional analysis serum samples from 190 patients with SLE were studied and a further 55 serial bleeds from 14 patients. An enzyme linked immunosorbent assay was used to measure the 9G4 Id, and anti dsDNA and antimyeloperoxidase (MPO) antibodies. The C3 levels were measured by laser nephelometer.

RESULTS

Seventy six of 190 (40%) of the patients tested had raised 9G4 Id levels. In the cross sectional study 9G4 Id levels were found to correlate with disease activity in the BILAG cardiovascular/respiratory renal, and haematological systems and with global BILAG score (p < 0.01). In the serial bleeds 9G4 Id levels correlated with anti-dsDNA antibody and C3 levels, but not with anti-MPO antibodies. No correlations were found with treatment. In six cases the 9G4 Id levels correlated well with global BILAG scores and dsDNA antibody levels. In four cases the BILAG global and 9G4 Id levels alone correlated well.

CONCLUSIONS

Raised levels of the 9G4 Id are present in a substantial proportion of serum samples from patients with lupus, correlate with various aspects of disease activity in SLE. The Id is detectable on anti-dsDNA antibodies, though it must also be present on other immunoglobulins whose specificities remain unknown.

Prednisone and aspirin in women with autoantibodies and unexplained recurrent fetal loss

BACKGROUND

Recurrent fetal loss has been well described in women with antiphospholipid antibodies. Such women also often have other autoantibodies commonly found in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus. Treating them with prednisone and aspirin may reduce the risk of fetal loss.

METHODS

We screened 773 nonpregnant women who had the unexplained loss of at least two fetuses for antinuclear, anti-DNA, antilymphocyte, and anticardiolipin antibodies and for the lupus anticoagulant. Of 385 women with at least one autoantibody, 202 who later became pregnant were randomly assigned in equal numbers to receive either prednisone (0.5 to 0.8 mg per kilogram of body weight per day) and aspirin (100 mg per day) or placebo for the duration of the pregnancy. The women were stratified according to age (18 to 34 years or 35 to 39 years) and the week of gestation at which the previous fetal losses had occurred (< or = 12 or > 12 weeks). The primary outcome measure was a successful pregnancy.

RESULTS

Live infants were born to 66 women in the treatment group (65 percent) and 57 women in the placebo group (56 percent, P=0.19). More infants were born prematurely in the treatment group than in the placebo group (62 percent vs. 12 percent, P<0.001). The major side effects of therapy in the mothers were hypertension (treatment group, 13 percent; placebo group, 5 percent; P=0.05) and diabetes mellitus (15 percent and 5 percent, P=0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Treating women who have autoantibodies and recurrent fetal loss with prednisone and aspirin is not effective in promoting live birth, and it increases the risk of prematurity.

Enhancing sensitivity to facial expression of pain

Clinicians have long appreciated the information communicated by a patient's facial expression. Advances in the measurement of facial movements, using the Facial Action Coding System (FACS) have allowed for identification of a universal expression of pain, which is primarily encoded in four facial movements. While the FACS provides a rigorous assessment of facial expression, the time required to learn the system and to analyze the facial expression by use of slow motion video recording, makes its use impractical in the clinical setting. The purpose of this research was to examine whether exposure to a brief training procedure, based on orienting subjects to the four facial movements, would increase sensitivity to pain communicated by facial expression. Seventy-five occupational and physical therapy student volunteers were randomly assigned to training or control groups. The trained group was exposed to a 30-min training session. Both groups were then asked to rate a videotape of patients undergoing assessment of a painful shoulder and rate the amount of discomfort the patients appeared to be experiencing. Analyses indicated that the trained group was significantly more sensitive to subtle facial movements associated with low levels of pain. Relative to the patients' ratings, there was a tendency for raters to underestimate pain particularly when these were at a high level. The findings lend hope to the feasibility of developing a tool which would be clinically useful though this may be more difficult for observers judging more complex facial expressions associated with high levels of pain.

Secretory phospholipase A2 as an index of disease activity in rheumatoid arthritis. Prospective double blind study of 212 patients

OBJECTIVE

A limited retrospective study of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) found that serum secreted phospholipase A2 (sPLA2) activity correlates with disease activity (J Rheumatol 1988; 15:1351-5). To assess the strength of this relationship we investigated prospectively 212 patients with RA using a double blind approach.

METHODS

212 patients who fulfilled the 1987 ACR criteria for RA had 420 clinical and laboratory assessments. 65 patients were assessed on one occasion and 147 on multiple occasions (a mean of 2.41 visits/patient). sPLA2 was tested by an independent investigator.

RESULTS

sPLA2 activity assessed as a dichotomous variable (less or more than mean +/- 2 SD) correlated highly (p < 0.005) with Lansbury index, number of effusions, number of damaged joints, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), platelet count, and low hemoglobin. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses showed significant correlations with Lansbury index, active and effused joints, hemoglobin, platelet count, and ESR. The best correlation was observed in a multivariate model that included Lansbury index, ESR, and platelet count (r = 0.60). Analysis of longitudinal changes in sPLA2 activity in 147 patients assessed more than once showed that sPLA2 correlates significantly with Lansbury index, active and effused joints, and hemoglobin.

CONCLUSION

Serum sPLA2 activity correlates significantly with Lansbury index, active and effused joints, ESR, platelet court, and hemoglobin. Thus, sPLA2 can serve as an index of disease activity in RA.

Determinants of mortality from cystic fibrosis in Canada, 1970-1989

The frequency, prevalence, and mortality patterns of cystic fibrosis were analyzed in 3,795 patients documented in the Canadian Patient Data Registry in 1970-1989. Cystic fibrosis frequency in the 1970-1979 birth cohort was virtually identical to the commonly quoted 1 in 2,500. In 1985-1989, median survival age was 36.7 years for males and 27.8 years for females, compared with 26.6 and 19.7, respectively, in 1970-1974. However, there were significant regional differences when Canada was divided into the four regions, East, Quebec, Ontario, and West. In Quebec, patients were younger at diagnosis and until recently had greater mortality than patients in other regions, which suggests more severe disease; dramatically improved survival in the 1980s coincided with a change from a restricted fat diet to a high fat diet. Improved survival in Ontario in the 1970s accompanied this change in dietary therapy, which may also account for good survival throughout the study period in the East. The West showed gradually improving survival, similar to that reported in other parts of the world. Proportional hazards analysis showed pulmonary function to be the best predictor of survival. Poorer survival in females was associated with poorer weight, but the interrelation of declining pulmonary function, weight maintenance, sex, and mortality requires further study. The effect of pulmonary colonization with Pseudomonas aeruginosa was confounded with degree of pulmonary dysfunction, but colonization with Burkholderia cepacia (previously Pseudomonas cepacia) was associated with increased mortality at all levels of pulmonary function.

Anticardiolipin antibodies in systemic lupus erythematosus: clinical and laboratory correlations

PURPOSE

To examine the link between anticardiolipin antibodies and the features of antiphospholipid syndrome in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In this prospective cohort study conducted in a single center, 390 SLE patients were followed up between June 1991 and 1994. At each assessment, a complete history, physical examination, and laboratory evaluation (including measurement of anticardiolipin antibodies) were performed according to a standard protocol.

RESULTS

Forty-seven percent of the patients had an elevated level of anticardiolipin antibodies. In the univariate analysis, elevated anticardiolipin antibody levels were found to correlate with thrombocytopenia (P = 0.006), prolonged activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT) (P = 0.003), and positive direct and indirect Coombs' test result's (P < 0.001). No correlation was identified with any of the clinical features of antiphospholipid syndrome. In the multivariate analysis, anticardiolipin antibodies remained highly associated with thrombocytopenia (odds ratio [OR] 4.05, P = 0.02), positive direct Coombs' test (OR 2.31, P < 0.001), and prolonged aPTT (OR 1.73, P = 0.03). In the multivariate model using venous/arterial thrombosis as the outcome variable, only prolonged aPTT was associated with venous/arterial thrombosis (OR 7.9, P < 0.001). None of the laboratory variables were found to correlate with fetal loss.

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of anticardiolipin antibodies in patients with SLE is associated with prolonged aPTT, thrombocytopenia, and positive Coombs' test result, but not with antiphospholipid syndrome. Prolonged aPTT is strongly associated with venous/arterial thrombosis.

A predictive model for the clearance of soluble phospholipase A2 during septic shock

Circulating phospholipase A2 (PLA2) has been recognized as a mediator of cardiovascular collapse in septic shock. Proximal mediators of endotoxemia, including tumor necrosis factor and interleukin 1, induce PLA2 synthesis and release, but the factors regulating PLA2 elimination are unknown. Similarly, the kinetics of PLA2 clearance during recovery from septic shock have not been examined. An autoregressive mathematical model was developed to describe the rate of PLA2 clearance during the recovery phase of septic shock. This model (which estimates that the current day's PLA2 level is 77% of the previous day's level), accounted for 89% of the variability seen in the data. The estimated circulating half-life of soluble PLA2 in septic shock in man was 32 hours. Since elevation in serum PLA2 activity is closely associated with bacteremia or endotoxemia, a significant deviation from predicted PLA2 values may denote impending relapse.

Reliability of measurements of active and damaged joints in psoriatic arthritis

Our aim was to test the reliability of clinical measurements in psoriatic arthritis. The study involved clinical assessments of inflammatory activity as well as damage in 10 patients with psoriatic arthritis seen at the psoriatic arthritis clinic. Five rheumatologists examined these patients according to a latin square design. For the clinical measurements of actively inflamed joints and damaged joints there was no significant observer effect. This suggests that these are reliable measurements. There was, however, significant observer effect in the radiologic assessment, and further refinement of the measurement is required.

Early function as the principal correlate of graft survival. A multivariate analysis of 200 cadaveric renal transplants treated with a protocol incorporating antilymphocyte globulin and cyclosporine

We examined the factors determining graft survival in 200 consecutive cadaveric renal transplants managed on a quadruple-therapy protocol: Minnesota antilymphoblast globulin, cyclosporine, azathioprine, and low-dose prednisone. Perioperative central venous pressure monitoring and volume expansion were emphasized. To avoid CsA nephrotoxicity in the early posttransplant period, patients were treated with ALG until renal function was established (a mean of 7 days). Therapeutic CsA levels were achieved before ALG was discontinued. Azathioprine was used to supplement CsA in patients with nephrotoxicity or rejection. Twelve-month graft survival was 85% (first transplants 86%, retransplants 79%), with patient survival of 95%. ALG was not associated with excessive clinical cytomegalovirus infections, which occurred in 5% of patients, or with malignancy. When 3 technical failures were excluded, an analysis of numerous factors in the pretransplant and peritransplant period revealed that the strongest correlate of one-year graft survival was early renal function. Grafts with delayed function (DF) had 75% survival, compared with 91% for grafts with good early function (EF). A multivariate analysis confirmed this association: the relative risk of graft loss was increased 2.86 times for DF compared with EF. The mechanism of the deleterious effect of DF was apparently multifactorial: the DF group, by definition, contained all the kidneys that never functioned, but some risk also persisted in kidneys that achieved function. One reason for this may be that DF kidneys that achieved function had higher mean serum creatinine values at 1 month: elevated serum creatinine values at 1 month were strongly associated with increased risk of graft loss regardless of initial function. There was also a higher number of rejection episodes diagnosed in the DF group. These observations suggest that early renal function is a major determinant of graft outcome and should be a target for efforts to further improve renal graft survival.

Concordance of endogenous cortisol and phospholipase A2 levels in gram-negative septic shock: a prospective study

Lipocortins, a group of corticosteroid-induced phospholipase-inhibitory proteins, are thought to play a prominent role in the mediation of the anti-inflammatory effects of steroids. The synthesis and release of these proteins may represent a major endogenous mechanism of regulation of extracellular phospholipase A2 (PLA2) activity. Because soluble PLA2 activity has been associated with circulatory collapse in hyperphospholipasemic conditions, such as septic shock and pancreatitis, we examined the relationship between circulating PLA2 activity and adrenocortical function. In a prospective study of 10 episodes of septic shock, serum PLA2 and cortisol levels correlated significantly in all survivors (p less than 0.0001), whereas such a correlation was absent in all nonsurvivors (p less than 0.07). No significant correlation of cortisol and adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH), or PLA2 and ACTH, was found in any patient, suggesting that the stimulus for cortisol release arises from outside the hypothalamic-pituitary axis. These data suggest that, in human beings, the regulation of soluble PLA2 activity may be mediated by adrenocortical hormones, perhaps through the intermediary action of lipocortins.

Pathogenesis of hypotension in septic shock: correlation of circulating phospholipase A2 levels with circulatory collapse

Circulating phospholipase A2 (PLA2) has been recognized as a mediator of circulatory collapse in experimental endotoxic shock. To assess the role of serum PLA2 in septic shock in man, we determined serum PLA2 profiles in a prospective study in 12 patients with septic shock. During the hypotensive phase of sepsis, serum PLA2 levels were consistently elevated as high as 33,428 U/ml (normal range 115 +/- 12 [SE]; n = 101). In all 12 patients, PLA2 levels correlated directly with the magnitude and duration of circulatory collapse (p less than .001), with a progressive fall of serum PLA2 levels during convalescence. In contrast, serum PLA2 levels in patients with cardiogenic shock secondary to myocardial infarction remained low. In pancreatitis, PLA2 levels paralleled fluctuations of serum amylase and lipase, whereas in septic shock without pancreatic involvement, PLA2 changes were discordant with changes in pancreatic enzymes. As well, septic shock serum PLA2 failed to crossreact by radioimmunoassay with antiserum against human pancreatic PLA2. These data are consistent with an extrapancreatic source of intravascular PLA2 release during sepsis. Since endogenous serum PLA2 levels correlate directly with the magnitude of hypotension in both experimental endotoxic shock and clinical septic shock, and since parenteral administration of purified exogenous PLA2 reproduces hypotension in experimental models, we conclude that high levels of intravascular PLA2 may contribute similarly to the circulatory collapse in septic shock in man.