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Epule TE, Chehbouni A, Dhiba D, Etongo D, Achli S, Salih W, Er-Raki S. Identifying gaps in actual and simulated/potential yield and growing season precipitation in Morocco. Environ Sci Pollut Res Int 2022; 29:84844-84860. [PMID: 35788488 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-21671-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2021] [Accepted: 06/21/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
The influence of growing season rainfall on agricultural production is indisputable. In Morocco, the production of crops such as barley, maize, and wheat is impacted by growing season rainfall. Due to persistent gaps in growing season rainfall and other drivers of crop yield, crops have experienced observed yields that are often below projected or potential yields. However, there are currently no studies that have quantified these gaps in yield and growing season rainfall in Morocco. To achieve this objective, time-series crop yield for all three crops and growing season rainfall data for the period 1991-2020 were collected from FAOSTAT and the World Bank climate portal, respectively. Growing season rainfall and crop yield data for the spatial variations were culled from System National de Suivi Agrometeorologique (GCMS) and the yield gaps atlas, respectively, for the same historical period. The data were subjected to bias correction to handle uncertainty. The projected/simulated crop yields and growing season rainfall were computed by regression analysis. Crop yield and growing season rainfall gaps were determined by establishing the difference between the projected and observed crop yields and rainfall data. The results show that observed and simulated wheat have a stronger relationship when compared to the other crops. Also, most years with crop yield gaps are associated with growing season rainfall gaps. Wheat records the lowest number of years with yield gaps and the highest number of years with growing season rainfall gaps during the entire data series. Therefore, even though yield gaps are strongly tied to growing season rainfall gaps, it is not the case for wheat, and therefore other drivers might be important because wheat has the lowest number of years with crop yield gaps and the highest number of years with growing season rainfall gaps. Spatially, yield and growing season rainfall gaps decline with increased latitude. The broader perspective and policy implication here is that a better understanding of yield and growing season rainfall gaps mandates an understanding of growing season rainfall and other drivers of yield. As a way forward, potential research should focus on identifying the drivers of yield gaps, sub-national experimentation at the plot level as well as on closing yield gaps through water and nutrient management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Terence Epule Epule
- International Water Research Institute (IWRI), Mohammed VI Polytechnic University (UM6P), Lot 660, Hay Moulay Rachid, 43150, Ben Guerir, Morocco.
| | - Abdelghani Chehbouni
- International Water Research Institute (IWRI), Mohammed VI Polytechnic University (UM6P), Lot 660, Hay Moulay Rachid, 43150, Ben Guerir, Morocco
- Centre for Remote Sensing Applications (CRSA), Mohammed VI Polytechnic University (UM6P), Lot 660, Hay Moulay Rachid, 43150, Ben Guerir, Morocco
| | - Driss Dhiba
- International Water Research Institute (IWRI), Mohammed VI Polytechnic University (UM6P), Lot 660, Hay Moulay Rachid, 43150, Ben Guerir, Morocco
| | - Daniel Etongo
- Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Seychelles, Anse Royale, Seychelles
| | - Soumia Achli
- International Water Research Institute (IWRI), Mohammed VI Polytechnic University (UM6P), Lot 660, Hay Moulay Rachid, 43150, Ben Guerir, Morocco
| | - Wiam Salih
- International Water Research Institute (IWRI), Mohammed VI Polytechnic University (UM6P), Lot 660, Hay Moulay Rachid, 43150, Ben Guerir, Morocco
| | - Salah Er-Raki
- Centre for Remote Sensing Applications (CRSA), Mohammed VI Polytechnic University (UM6P), Lot 660, Hay Moulay Rachid, 43150, Ben Guerir, Morocco
- ProcEDE /AgroBiotech Center, Département de Physique Appliquée, Faculté Des Sciences Et Techniques, Université Cadi Ayyad, Marrakech, Morocco
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Epule TE, Chehbouni A, Chfadi T, Ongoma V, Er-Raki S, Khabba S, Etongo D, Martínez-Cruz AL, Molua EL, Achli S, Salih W, Chuwah C, Jemo M, Chairi I. A Systematic National Stocktake of Crop Models in Morocco. Ecol Modell 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110036] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
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Chalmers JD, Goeminne P, Aliberti S, McDonnell M, Lonzi S, Davidson J, Poppelwell L, Salih W, Pesci A, Dupont L, Fardon TC, De Soyza A, Hill AT. S124 Derivation and validation of the bronchiectasis severity index: an international multicentre observational study. Thorax 2013. [DOI: 10.1136/thoraxjnl-2013-204457.131] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
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