[Research progress on the effect of common metabolism-related comorbidities on health outcomes and management strategies in patients with chronic hepatitis B]

With the increasing life expectancy and lifestyle changes of patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), the significance of comorbidities of chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in disease progression and health prognosis of CHB patients is gaining prominence. This study aims to explore the association between CHB and NCDs comorbidities, focusing on the impact of common metabolism-related diseases, such as metabolic syndrome and diabetes, on the health outcomes of CHB patients. We also summarize studies on integrating the management of comorbidities in CHB patients and provide relevant recommendations for effective management. The findings of this study serve as a foundation for understanding the clinical characteristics and prevalence trends, reducing the disease burden of comorbidities among CHB patients, and establishing a comprehensive and coordinated management system for comorbidities.

[Research progress on the comorbidity between hepatitis B virus infection and noncommunicable diseases]

With the decline in hepatitis B virus (HBV) incidence and the increase in the life expectancy of infected individuals, the population infected with HBV is experiencing rapid aging, leading to an escalating risk of co-morbid chronic noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). This study summarizes research related to the comorbidity between HBV and NCDs, discussing the aging of the HBV-infected population, the mechanisms, prevalence, and management of this comorbidity. This study provides insights into potential directions for future research on the comorbidity between HBV and NCDs and aims to provide a basis for further research and the development of prevention and treatment strategies for the comorbidity of NCDs among HBV-infected individuals in China.

[Causal links between long-term exposure to NO2 and the risk of cardiovascular hospitalization]

Objective: To determine the causal association between long-term Nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) exposure and the risk of cardiovascular hospitalization. Methods: Based on a sub-cohort of a community-based prospective cohort study, a total of 36 271 participants were recruited from 35 communities randomly selected in Guangzhou in 2015. The annual average exposure of NO₂, demographic characteristics, lifestyle factors, and information on the causes of hospitalization was collected. We applied marginal structural Cox models to investigate the effect of NO₂ on cardiovascular hospitalization. Demographic and behavioral factors also stratified results. Results: The mean age of participants in the present study was (50.9±17.8) years, and the cardiovascular admission rate was 8.7%, with 203 822 person-years of follow-up. The annual mean NO₂ concentration was 48.7 μg/m³ during 2015-2020. For each 10 μg/m³ increase in NO₂ concentrations, the HRs (95%CIs) of total cardiovascular hospitalization, cardiovascular hospitalization, and cerebrovascular hospitalization were 1.33 (1.16-1.52), 1.36 (1.16-1.60) and 1.25 (1.00-1.55), respectively. Participants who were never married/married, with secondary education, high exercise frequency, or non-smokers/current smokers may be more susceptible than their counterparts. Conclusion: Long-term exposure to NO₂ significantly increased hospitalization risk for cardiovascular disease.

[Burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to population aging in China, 1990‒2050]

Objective: The direction and intensity of population aging on the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in China from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed, and the burden of NCDs in 2050 was predicted. Methods: The disease-specific disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study.The differences in indicators from 1990 to 2019 were attributed to the contribution of age structure, population size, and all other causes. The Bayesian age-time-cohort models were used to predict DALYs from NCDs to 2050. Results: The absolute level of DALYs caused by NCDs increased by 7.460 million from 1990 to 2019, and the age structure contributed 186.0% (95% Uncertainty Intervals (UIs): 178.4%-193.6%), population size contributed 77.0% (95% UIs: 69.5%-80.8%), all other causes contributed -163.0% (95% UIs:-163.1%- -159.3%). DALYs caused by NCDs consist of 2.527 million YLLs and 4.934 million YLDs, in which the contribution of age structure to YLLs and YLDs was 414.6% (95% UIs: 396.2%-432.5%) and 69.1% (95% UIs: 66.7%-71.4%), respectively. From 2019 to 2050, the diseases with increased DALYs due to changes in age structure are cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, chronic respiratory diseases, neurological disorders, sense organ diseases, diabetes and kidney diseases, musculoskeletal disorders, digestive diseases, mental disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases in descending order. Conclusions: From 1990 to 2019, except for skin and subcutaneous diseases, the burden of other NCDs attributable to population aging increased, mainly due to disability. By 2050, the burden of NCDsattributable to population aging will continue to rise.

[The role of the high-level public health school in the development of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention]

The Ministry of Education and other four departments jointly issued the Notice on the Construction of high-level schools of public Health, proposing that "it will take ten years to build a number of high-level schools of public health, and form a high-quality education development system to adapt to the construction of modern public health system". At present, the construction of high-level public health schools in various universities in China is in full swing. The high-level School of Public Health and the CDC have played an important role in constructing the national public health system and the human health community. The high-level public health schools are of strategic significance and important value to the development of the CDC. The review presents reflections and insights on the role of high-level public health schools in the development of the CDC and the challenges they might face.

[Progress in research on HIV cluster detection and response]

HIV cluster detection and response (CDR) is a critical strategy to end the HIV epidemic by offering information to identify prevention and care services gaps. The risk metrics for HIV clusters can be classified into three groups: growth-based metrics, characteristic-based metrics, and phylogeny-based metrics. When identifying HIV risk clusters, the public health response can reach people in the affected networks, including people with undiagnosed HIV, people with diagnosed HIV who might not be accessing HIV care or other services, and people without HIV who would benefit from prevention services. To provide references for HIV precise prevention in China, we summarized the risk metrics and the intervention measures for CDR.

[Association between physical exercise and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in people infected with hepatitis B virus]

Objective: To investigate the association between physical exercise and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in people infected with HBV. Methods: The information about the 3 813 participants infected with HBV, including the prevalence of NAFLD, prevalence of physical exercise and other covariates, were collected from the National Science and Technology Major Project of China during 2016-2020. The logistic regression model was used to evaluate the association between physical exercise and NAFLD in HBV infected patients, and subgroup analysis was performed to identify the effect modifiers. Results: A total of 2 259 HBV infected participants were included in the final analysis and 454 (20.10%) had NAFLD. After adjusting for covariates, we found that moderate physical exercise was a protective factor for NAFLD (OR=0.66, 95%CI: 0.46-0.94). Subgroup analysis suggested that the protective effect of moderate physical exercise on NAFLD might be stronger in women (OR=0.61, 95%CI: 0.36-1.01), those <45 years old (OR=0.24, 95%CI: 0.06-0.80), those who had low education level (OR=0.16, 95%CI: 0.04-0.49), those who had low annual income (OR=0.39, 95%CI: 0.16-0.89 for <30 000 yuan RMB; OR=0.64, 95%CI: 0.40-1.00 for 30 000-80 000 yuan RMB), those who had hypertension (OR=0.45, 95%CI: 0.21-0.88), those with BMI ≥24.0 kg/m² (OR=0.66, 95%CI: 0.43-1.01), those who had more daily fruit or vegetable intake (OR=0.61, 95%CI: 0.38-0.97), those who had more daily meat intake (OR=0.49, 95%CI: 0.23-0.97), and those who had no smoking history (OR=0.66, 95%CI: 0.45-0.95) or passive smoking exposure (OR=0.61, 95%CI: 0.37-0.97). Conclusions: Among HBV infected patients, moderate physical exercise was negatively associated with the prevalence of NAFLD. Women, young people, those who had low education level, those who had low annual income, those with hypertension, those with high BMI, those who had more daily fruit or vegetable and meat intakes, and those who had no smoking history or passive smoking exposure might be more sensitive to the protective effect.

[Association between response to repeated negative HIV testing and risk sexual behaviors in men who have sex with men in Chengdu]

Objective: To investigate the association between the response to repeated negative HIV testing and the risk sexual behaviors in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Chengdu. Methods: A total of 610 MSM were recruited by convenience sampling method through Chengdu Tongle Health Consultation Service Centre from March to May 2022. Data were collected from the MSM through questionnaire survey, including the demographic characteristics, sexual behaviors in the past 6 months, the response to rerpeated negative HIV testing. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were conducted to analyze the association between the response to repeated negative HIV testing and risk sexual behavior. Results: A total of 579 (94.9%) participants participated in the questionnaire survey and 354 (61.1%) subjects were included in the study.For the negative HIV testing, some MSM believed that they had taken effective protection measures (17.03±2.20), some believed that they were lucky (7.50±1.87) and some believed that they were at low risk (8.87±3.62). Multivariate logistic regression model showed that protected sexual behavior was negatively associated with group sex (aOR=0.80, 95%CI: 0.67-0.95), lucky was positively associated with casual sex (aOR=1.20, 95%CI: 1.06-1.35), inconsistent condom use (aOR=1.21, 95%CI: 1.06-1.37), group sex (aOR=1.26, 95%CI: 1.00-1.60), and multiple sexual partners (aOR=1.24, 95%CI: 1.09-1.42) and low risk perception was positively associated with multiple sexual partners only (aOR=1.08, 95%CI: 1.01-1.15). Conclusions: There were high levels of recognition of protected sexual behavior and lucky dimensions in response to repeated negative HIV testing and well risk perception in MSM in Chengdu. In HIV testing and counseling services, intervention and risk warning should be strengthened in MSM who believed that they are lucky to improve their awareness of safe sex and reduce the negative effects of fluke mind.

[Willingness to use the three types of pre-exposure prophylaxis and associated factors among men who have sex with men in Chengdu]

Objective: To investigate the willingness to use three types of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and its associated factors among MSM in Chengdu. Methods: A total of 793 MSM were recruited through Chengdu Tongle Health Consultation Service Centre between November 2021 to January 2022. Data were collected, including demographic characteristics, sexual behaviors in the last six months, PrEP-related stigma, HIV anticipated stigma, MSM internalized stigma, and willingness to use three types of PrEP. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were conducted to investigate the associated factors of willingness in using the three types of PrEP. Results: Among 793 participants, willingness to take on-demand PrEP was higher (68.3%). Higher education and multiple sexual partners increased the willingness to use oral PrEP, higher education [compared with junior high school or below, high school or technical secondary school (aOR=2.43, 95%CI: 1.13-5.21), junior college (aOR=2.67, 95%CI: 1.27-5.61), bachelor degree (aOR=3.21, 95%CI: 1.52-6.74), master degree or above (aOR=3.77, 95%CI: 1.54-9.26)], multiple sexual partners (aOR=1.54, 95%CI: 1.12-2.11) were positively associated with daily oral PrEP. HIV anticipated stigma was positively associated with the willingness in using all three types of PrEP: daily oral PrEP (aOR=1.07, 95%CI: 1.02-1.12), on-demand PrEP (aOR=1.09, 95%CI: 1.03-1.15), and injectable PrEP every 8 week (aOR=1.06, 95%CI: 1.01-1.11). Conclusions: The overall willingness in using PrEP in MSM in Chengdu is relatively high, and the promotion of PrEP is highly feasible. In the future, we should continue to promote publicity and education on HIV and PrEP-related knowledge in this population, improve the cognitive level, and guide MSM to establish the correct motivation for PrEP use.

[Epidemiological characteristics of local outbreak of COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in Liwan district, Guangzhou]

Objective: To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of a local outbreak of COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2(Delta) variant in Liwan district, Guangzhou, and provide evidence for the further prevention and control of the Delta variant of COVID-19. Methods: From May 21 to June 18, 2021, the incidence data of COVID-19 caused by Delta variant were obtained from National Notifiable Disease Report System of Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System and Liwan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Guangzhou.Frequency analysis (proportions), histograms, and percentage stacked area plots were used to describe the epidemiological characteristics of the outbreaks. The incubation period and time-varying reproduction numbers (R_t) estimations were used for the further analysis. Results: By June 18, 2021, a total of 127 COVID-19 cases caused by Delta variant was reported in Liwan district. The youngest case was aged 2 years and the oldest was aged 85 years. There were 18.9% (24/127) aged <18 years, 43.3% (55/127) aged 18-59 years, and 37.8% (48/127) aged ≥60 years, the male to female ratio of the cases was 1∶1.35 (54∶73). The cases were mainly retired people (32.3%, 41/127), the jobless or unemployed (18.1%, 23/127), and students (16.5%, 21/127). The infections mainly occurred in Baihedong (70.1%, 89/127) and Zhongnan street (23.6%, 30/127) communities in the southern area of Liwan district. The median incubation period of the Delta variant infection was 6 days (range: 1-15 days). The clinical classification were mainly common type (64.6%, 82/127). The basic reproduction number (R₀) was 5.1, R_t which once increased to 7.3. The transmissions mainly occurred in confined spaces, such as home (26.8%), restaurant (29.1%), neighborhood (3.9%), and market (3.1%), the household clustering was predominant. Close contacts tracing (66.1%) and community screening (33.1%) were the main ways to find the infections. Conclusion: The COVID-19 outbreak caused by Delta variant in Liwan district of Guangzhou was highly contagious, with the obvious characteristics of household clustering and high proportions of cases in adults aged 18-59 years and elderly people aged ≥60 years.

[Analysis on job burnout status and its influencing factors among female workers of labor-intensive enterprises]

Objective: To analyze the status and its influencing factors of job burnout among female workers of labor-intensive enterprises. Methods: A total of 750 female workers from 5 labor-intensive enterprises in Guangdong Province were selected as the study subjects by random cluster sampling method in August, 2019. 665 valid questionnaires were collected, and the effective recovery rate was 88.67%. The Maslach Burnout Inventory-General Survey was used to assess job burnout and its influencing factors were analyzed. Results: Among 665 female workers, 429 (64.51%) found to have different levels of burnout, among which 380 (57.14%) were mild to moderate burnout and 49 (7.37%) were severe burnout. The comprehensive scores of job burnout in different age, marital status, current post working age, working time per week, personal monthly income, working system and occupational stress groups were statistically significant (P<0.01) . There were significant differences in the score of emotional exhaustion in different age, marital status, current working age, working time per week, personal monthly income and occupational stress groups (P<0.05) . There were significant differences in the dimensions of depersonalization in different age, weekly work time, personal monthly income, working system and occupational stress groups (P<0.05) . There were significant differences in the dimensions of low individual achievement in different education levels, weekly work time, working system and occupational stress groups (P<0.05) . Conclusion: The female workers of labor-intensive enterprises are generally have mild to moderate job burnout. The main influencing factors of job burnout are weekly work time and occupational stress.

[Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate the age-specific case fatality rate of COVID-19]

Objectives: The COVID-19 epidemic has swept all over the world. Estimates of its case fatality rate were influenced by the existing confirmed cases and the time distribution of onset to death, and the conclusions were still unclear. This study was aimed to estimate the age-specific case fatality rate of COVID-19. Methods: Data on COVID-19 epidemic were collected from the National Health Commission and China CDC. The Gamma distribution was used to fit the time from onset to death. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate age-specific case fatality rate. Results: The median time from onset to death of COVID-19 was M=13.77 (P(25)-P(75): 9.03-21.02) d. The overall case fatality rate of COVID-19 was 4.1% (95%CI: 3.7%-4.4%) and the age-specific case fatality rate were 0.1%, 0.4%, 0.4%, 0.4%,0.8%, 2.3%, 6.4%, 14.0 and 25.8% for 0-, 10-, 20-, 30-, 40-, 50-, 60-, 70- and ≥80 years group, respectively. Conclusions: The Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation method adjusting censored is suitable for case fatality rate estimation during the epidemic of a new infectious disease. Early identification of the COVID-19 case fatality rate is helpful to the prevention and control of the epidemic.

[Estimating the distribution of COVID-19 incubation period by interval-censored data estimation method]

Objectives: The COVID-19 has been the public health issues of global concern, but the incubation period was still under discussion. This study aimed to estimate the incubation period distribution of COVID-19. Methods: The exposure and onset information of COVID-19 cases were collected from the official information platform of provincial or municipal health commissions. The distribution of COVID-19 incubation period was estimated based on the Log- normal, Gamma and Weibull distribution by interval-censored data estimation method. Results: A total of 109 confirmed cases were collected, with an average age of 39.825 years. The median COVID-19 incubation period based on Log-normal, Gamma, and Weibull distribution were 4.958 (P(25)-P(75): 3.472-7.318) days, 5.083 (P(25)-P(75): 3.511-7.314) days, and 5.695 (P(25)-P(75): 3.675-7.674) days, respectively. Gamma distribution had the largest log-likelihood result. Conclusions: The distribution of COVID-19 incubation period followed the Gamma distribution, and the interval-censored data estimation method can be used to estimate the incubation period distribution.

[Estimating the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China]

Objective: The number of confirmed and suspected cases of the COVID-19 in Hubei province is still increasing. However, the estimations of the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 varied greatly across studies. The objectives of this study are 1) to estimate the basic reproduction number (R(0)) of COVID-19 reflecting the infectiousness of the virus and 2) to assess the effectiveness of a range of controlling intervention. Methods: The reported number of daily confirmed cases from January 17 to February 8, 2020 in Hubei province were collected and used for model fit. Four methods, the exponential growth (EG), maximum likelihood estimation (ML), sequential Bayesian method (SB) and time dependent reproduction numbers (TD), were applied to estimate the R(0). Results: Among the four methods, the EG method fitted the data best. The estimated R(0) was 3.49 (95%CI: 3.42-3.58) by using EG method. The R(0) was estimated to be 2.95 (95%CI: 2.86-3.03) after taking control measures. Conclusions: In the early stage of the epidemic, it is appropriate to estimate R(0) using the EG method. Meanwhile, timely and effective control measures were warranted to further reduce the spread of COVID-19.

[Fitting and forecasting the trend of COVID-19 by SEIR(+CAQ) dynamic model]

Objectives: Fitting and forecasting the trend of COVID-19 epidemics. Methods: Based on SEIR dynamic model, considering the COVID-19 transmission mechanism, infection spectrum and prevention and control procedures, we developed SEIR(+CAQ) dynamic model to fit the frequencies of laboratory confirmed cases obtained from the government official websites. The data from January 20, 2020 to February 7, 2020 were used to fit the model, while the left data between February 8-12 were used to evaluate the quality of forecasting. Results: According to the cumulative number of confirmed cases between January 29 to February 7, the fitting bias of SEIR(+CAQ) model for overall China (except for cases of Hubei province), Hubei province (except for cases of Wuhan city) and Wuhan city was less than 5%. For the data of subsequent 5 days between February 8 to 12, which were not included in the model fitting, the prediction biases were less than 10%. Regardless of the cases diagnosed by clinical examines, the numbers of daily emerging cases of China (Hubei province not included), Hubei Province (Wuhan city not included) and Wuhan city reached the peak in the early February. Under the current strength of prevention and control, the total number of laboratory-confirmed cases in overall China will reach 80 417 till February 29, 2020, respectively. Conclusions: The proposed SEIR(+CAQ) dynamic model fits and forecasts the trend of novel coronavirus pneumonia well and provides evidence for decision making.

[Trends of female reproductive health status in Bangladesh from 1999 to 2018]

Objective: To analyze the changes of relevant indicators in reproductive health status among Bangladeshi women from 1999 to 2018 and to assess whether the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) can be achieved. Methods: Data were obtained from both the Bangladesh Demographic and Health as well as from the Maternal Mortality and Health Care Surveys. The trends of SDGs indicators related to reproductive health from 1999 to 2018 were analyzed and compared, and the average annual rate of change was calculated. Development index was used to assess the difficulty of achieving the SDGs. Results: The maternal mortality rate increased first and then leveled off from 2001 to 2016. From 1999 to 2018, the coverage of reproductive health care services and the proportion of women who had the right to make the decision on their own health care service, were generally increasing. Proportion of the following areas as: "contraceptive needs, women who consider that partner violence is justified, the rate of early marriage, and the rate of early childbearing etc.", were declining at various degrees. Development index of the antenatal care coverage, rate of delivery in medical facilities, percentage of live births attended by medically trained providers and the rate of postnatal care etc., were less than 1. The development indices of the maternal mortality rates were close to 1, while all the other indicators were greater than 1. Conclusions: The reproductive health-related SDGs indicators in Bangladesh appeared somehow degrees of progress from 1999 to 2018. However, for most indicators, the average annual rate of change was still lower than the expected to achieve the 2030 target which called for acceleration in the next few years.

[Spatial distribution of cancer-related burden in Guangzhou from 2010 to 2013]

Objective: To evaluate the burden and to describe the characteristics of spatial distribution caused by malignant tumors among different administrative areas in Guangzhou from 2010- 2013. Methods: Based on data from the Cancer Registry system and population in Guangzhou in 2010- 2013, disability-adjusted life year (DALY) was assessed on the disease burden of cancer, in accordance with the method used in the Global Burden of Disease study. Results: The crude incidence rates of cancer appeared as 256.22/10(5) in 2010-2011 and 270.04/10(5) in 2012-2013, with the crude mortality rates as 143.17/10(5) and 148.01/10(5), respectively, in Guangzhou. Cancers caused 606 238.95 DALYs in 2010-2011 and 623 763.80 DALYs in 2012-2013 for both sexes and 37.63 and 37.81 person year per 1 000 persons, with the standardized DALY rates as 34.51‰, 34.00‰ respectively. Three administrative districts (Yuexiu, Haizhu and Liwan) were with the largest disease burden of cancers that accounted for 45% of the DALYs for the whole Conghua district, with liver cancer was the leading cancer on DALYs, and tracheal, bronchus and lung cancer ranked the first in the other districts. Conclusions: In Guangzhou, disease burden caused by cancers was both prominently seen in the newly developed urban area and the old districts. It remains an arduous task to continue programs on control and prevention of cancers in this city.

[Health-related quality of life and health-adjusted life expectancy among patients with chronic non-communicable diseases, in Guangdong province]

Objective: To estimate the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) which were associated with chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in people from Guangdong province of China. Methods: Data on both NCDs prevalence and EuroQol-5 Dimensions-3 Levels measured HRQOL were gathered from the Fifth National Health Survey in Guangdong province, 2013. Logistic regression model and multiple linear regression model were employed to explore the impact of NCDs on HRQOL. Life expectancy (LE) and HALE were used to evaluate the comprehensive impact of chronic diseases on population health. Results: A total of 68 550 inhabitants were included in the analysis. Graded logistic regression showed that the impact of chronic diseases on all dimensions of quality of life was statistically significant after adjusting for social demographic characteristics. The greatest health impact was on the pain/discomfort health dimension [OR=4.48 (95%CI:4.20-4.77)], followed by anxiety/depression[OR=3.95 (95%CI: 3.62- 4.31)], daily activities [OR=3.69 (95%CI: 3.37-4.04)], mobility [OR=3.63 (95%CI: 3.34-3.94)]and ability on self-care [OR=3.30 (95%CI: 2.98-3.66)]. Losses of LE and HALE caused by NCDs were 12.7 and 14.6 years respectively while the overall expected gain was 3.8 years in HALE, when NCDs were taken away. Conclusions: Our data showed that NCDs had shortened the healthy life span of patients through reducing the HRQOL and also causing heavy disease burden on both patients with NCDs and the communities. Health-care related policies on NCDs need to be developed, for the elderly, in particular.

[Impact of the 90-90-90 goal and pre-exposure prophylaxis on HIV transmission and elimination in men who have sex with men in China: A mathematical modeling study]

Objective: To establish a dynamic compartmental model to predict the impact of HIV testing and treatment and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) on the annual incidence of HIV infection in men who have sex with men (MSM) in China from 2018 to 2037. Methods: A dynamic compartmental model was developed to describe the HIV epidemic in MSM in China. The model was parameterized using data from the literature available. We used MATLAB 7.0 software for data simulation and graphics rendering. We analyzed HIV transmission among MSM and estimated the impact of expanded HIV testing and treatment and PrEP on HIV elimination in MSM. Results: Under the current policy, the number of new HIV infections would reach 770 000, the infection rate would reach 11.1% and the incidence rate would reach 0.72/100 person years in MSM in the next 20 years. Under the 90%-90%-90% goal, 440 000 new infections (57.7%) would be reduced, the HIV infection rate would decline to 5.7% and the incidence rate would decline to 0.24/100 person years in the next 20 years, but it is still unlikely to achieve the goal of HIV elimination. With 100% PrEP compliance, the required PrEP coverage rates for achieving HIV elimination in the next 10, 15 and 20 years would be 65%, 32% and 19%, respectively. Conclusion: It is necessary to strengthen the comprehensive intervention in MSM, continue to expand HIV testing and treatment, and improve PrEP adherence and coverage to further control and eliminate the epidemic of HIV/AIDS in MSM.

[Correlation between percentage of body fat and simple anthropometric parameters in children aged 6-9 years in Guangzhou]

Objective: To evaluate the accuracy of simple anthropometric parameters in diagnosing obesity in children in Guangzhou. Methods: A cross-sectional study, including 465 children aged 6-9 years, was carried out in Guangzhou. Their body height and weight, waist circumference (WC) and hip circumference were measured according to standard procedure. Body mass index (BMI), waist to hip ratio (WHR) and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) were calculated. Body fat percentage (BF%) was determined by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Multiple regression analysis was applied to evaluate the correlations between age-adjusted physical indicators and BF%, after the adjustment for age. Obesity was defined by BF%. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were performed to assess the diagnostic accuracy of the indicators for childhood obesity. Area under-ROC curves (AUCs) were calculated and the best cut-off point that maximizing 'sensitivity + specificity-1' was determined. Results: BMI showed the strongest association with BF% through multiple regression analysis. For 'per-standard deviation increase' of BMI, BF% increased by 5.3% (t=23.1, P<0.01) in boys and 4.6% (t=17.5, P<0.01) in girls, respectively. The ROC curve analysis indicated that BMI exhibited the largest AUC in both boys (AUC=0.908) and girls (AUC=0.895). The sensitivity was 80.8% in boys and 81.8% in girls, and the specificity was 88.2% in boys and 87.1% in girls. Both the AUCs for WHtR and WC were less than 0.8 in boys and girls. WHR had the smallest AUCs (<0.8) in both boys and girls. Conclusion: BMI appeared to be a good predicator for BF% in children aged 6-9 years in Guangzhou.

Systematic review with meta-analysis: prompt endoscopy as the initial management strategy for uninvestigated dyspepsia in Asia

BACKGROUND

Prompt endoscopy should be considered as an initial strategy for uninvestigated dyspepsia in the background of high prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection and malignancy. However, with changes of disease patterns and dyspepsia definition, the prevalence of organic lesions at endoscopy in dyspepsia patients and the predictive values of alarm features and age for in malignancy remain unclear in Asian population.

AIMS

To evaluate the appropriateness of prompt endoscopy as an initial dyspepsia management strategy, we investigated the organic lesion detection rates in Asian dyspepsia patients as well as the diagnostic accuracies of alarm features and age thresholds for malignancy.

METHODS

Literature was retrieved from MEDLINE, PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library and CINAHL Plus. The prevalence rates of organic lesions and young cancer patients among dyspeptic patients and the sensitivities, specificities, likelihood ratios and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) of alarm features and ages were estimated. The summary receiver operating characteristic curve was constructed and the area under the curve (AUC) calculated. Subgroup, sensitivity and meta-regression analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Of the 18 included studies, 15 reported organic lesion detection rates, and six and five analysed the predictive values of alarm features and ages respectively. The overall malignancy detection rate was 1.3% (95% CI: 0.80-2.10). Among cancer patients, 17.8% (95% CI: 10.90-29.00) were younger than 45 years and 3.0% (95% CI: 2.50-3.50) were younger than 35 years. The diagnostic accuracy of alarm features for predicting malignancy was moderate (DOR: 4.87, 95% CI: 2.72-8.71; AUC = 0.74). The diagnostic accuracy at age >35 years (DOR: 9.41, 95% CI: 7.89-11.21; AUC = 0.82) was better than that at age >45 years (DOR: 3.50, 95% CI: 2.32-5.27; AUC = 0.70).

CONCLUSIONS

The malignancy detection rate and proportion of young cancer patients were high among Asian dyspepsia patients. Alarm features and age were of limited value for predicting malignancy, and prompt endoscopy should be considered as the initial strategy for dyspepsia in Asian populations. The optimal age threshold for endoscopy screening in Asia might be 35 years.