Long-term forecast of thermal mortality with climate warming in riverine amphipods

Forecasting long-term consequences of global warming requires knowledge on thermal mortality and how heat stress interacts with other environmental stressors on different timescales. Here, we describe a flexible analytical framework to forecast mortality risks by combining laboratory measurements on tolerance and field temperature records. Our framework incorporates physiological acclimation effects, temporal scale differences and the ecological reality of fluctuations in temperature, and other factors such as oxygen. As a proof of concept, we investigated the heat tolerance of amphipods Dikerogammarus villosus and Echinogammarus trichiatus in the river Waal, the Netherlands. These organisms were acclimated to different temperatures and oxygen levels. By integrating experimental data with high-resolution field data, we derived the daily heat mortality probabilities for each species under different oxygen levels, considering current temperatures as well as 1 and 2°C warming scenarios. By expressing heat stress as a mortality probability rather than a upper critical temperature, these can be used to calculate cumulative annual mortality, allowing the scaling up from individuals to populations. Our findings indicate a substantial increase in annual mortality over the coming decades, driven by projected increases in summer temperatures. Thermal acclimation and adequate oxygenation improved heat tolerance and their effects were magnified on longer timescales. Consequently, acclimation effects appear to be more effective than previously recognized and crucial for persistence under current temperatures. However, even in the best-case scenario, mortality of D. villosus is expected to approach 100% by 2100, while E. trichiatus appears to be less vulnerable with mortality increasing to 60%. Similarly, mortality risks vary spatially: In southern, warmer rivers, riverine animals will need to shift from the main channel toward the cooler head waters to avoid thermal mortality. Overall, this framework generates high-resolution forecasts on how rising temperatures, in combination with other environmental stressors such as hypoxia, impact ecological communities.

Synergistic, antagonistic, and additive effects of heavy metals (copper and cadmium) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) under binary and tertiary combinations in key habitat-forming kelp species of Chile

Heavy metals (HMs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are persistent toxicants in coastal environments. Notably, in comparison to individual metal toxicity, knowledge about the effects of HMs and PAHs mixtures on kelps remains scarce. Accordingly, we performed in vitro experiments to determine the individual and combined effects of Cu, Cd, and PAHs on spore release, settlement, and germination on Macrocystis pyrifera and Lessonia spicata, two key-habitat forming kelp species of the coast of the Valparaíso Region in Chile. This region concentrates highly polluting industries, mainly due to unrestrained mining and fossil-fuel energy production. Single Cu, Cd, and PAHs treatments included concentrations in the ranges 5-200, 0.125-2000, and 0.05-100 μg/L, respectively, and a toxic-free treatment. Cu, Cd, and PAHs concentrations causing 20-50% (IC20, IC50) arrested spore release, settlement, and germination were determined, and the results shown in both species that single Cu, Cd, and PAHs IC20 values were generally lower on spore release than on spore settlement and germination, probably due to the absence of a cell wall in spores compared to later stages. Binary equitoxic IC20s mixture treatments changed from an antagonistic response to another with a greater inhibitory effect on spore release, from hour 1 to 7, whereas in IC50 treatments, the response was always antagonistic. The tertiary IC20 mixture of Cu+Cd+PAHs produced generally an antagonistic effect. Remarkably, all IC20 equitoxic mixture treatments showed a synergistic response on spore settlement in both kelps, suggesting that these toxicants are extremely harmful to kelp population persistence near highly polluted sites.

Coastal pollution from the industrial park Quintero bay of central Chile: Effects on abundance, morphology, and development of the kelp Lessonia spicata (Phaeophyceae)

The industrial park of Quintero Bay (QB) in the central coast of Chile was established in the 1960s, presents high levels of pollution due to the industrial activity, and it is known as one of the five Chilean "sacrifice zones". Lessonia spicata is the most important habitat-forming kelp species in the intertidal along the central and south shores of Chile, and currently there are no morphometric and population studies of L. spicata (or other seaweed species) nor studies about the effects of pollution on its development in QB and neighbouring sites. In this context, the aims of this study were (i) to register the abundance and morphological features of L. spicata populations from Ventanas, Horcón and Cachagua (sites with different pollution histories and located only up to 40 km from the QB); ii) to determine the heavy metals (HMs) concentration in seawater and marine sediments; and (iii) to evaluate in vitro the effects of exposure to seawater from the three sampling sites on spore release and early developmental stages, up to the juvenile sporophyte. Results showed that the chronically exposed Ventanas kelp population had the smallest adult individuals in comparison with the other sites. Ventanas and Horcón registered high HMs concentration in the seawater and marine sediments exceeding the international permissible limits (e.g in seawater Cu 20-859 μg L-1; sediments Cu > 50,000 μg kg-1). Unexpectedly in Cachagua, a site often considered unpolluted, high concentrations of Cu and As were also registered in the seawater (859 and 1,484 μg L-1, respectively) and of As in marine sediments (20,895 μg kg-1). Exposure of gametophytes to the seawater from Ventanas resulted in a developmental delay compared to the other treatments; however, low sporophyte production was determined in all treatments. Our results indicate that QB, more notably Ventanas, induce highly negative effects on individual development, and consequently on seaweed populations, which suggest a long-term negative impact on the community structure of these marine zones. Furthermore, the high concentrations of HMs reported here at Cachagua suggest a recent expansion of pollution along the central coast of Chile, evidencing effects on the marine ecosystem health even on sites far from the pollution source.