Identification of western North Atlantic odontocete echolocation click types using machine learning and spatiotemporal correlates

A combination of machine learning and expert analyst review was used to detect odontocete echolocation clicks, identify dominant click types, and classify clicks in 32 years of acoustic data collected at 11 autonomous monitoring sites in the western North Atlantic between 2016 and 2019. Previously-described click types for eight known odontocete species or genera were identified in this data set: Blainville's beaked whales (Mesoplodon densirostris), Cuvier's beaked whales (Ziphius cavirostris), Gervais' beaked whales (Mesoplodon europaeus), Sowerby's beaked whales (Mesoplodon bidens), and True's beaked whales (Mesoplodon mirus), Kogia spp., Risso's dolphin (Grampus griseus), and sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus). Six novel delphinid echolocation click types were identified and named according to their median peak frequencies. Consideration of the spatiotemporal distribution of these unidentified click types, and comparison to historical sighting data, enabled assignment of the probable species identity to three of the six types, and group identity to a fourth type. UD36, UD26, and UD28 were attributed to Risso's dolphin (G. griseus), short-finned pilot whale (G. macrorhynchus), and short-beaked common dolphin (D. delphis), respectively, based on similar regional distributions and seasonal presence patterns. UD19 was attributed to one or more species in the subfamily Globicephalinae based on spectral content and signal timing. UD47 and UD38 represent distinct types for which no clear spatiotemporal match was apparent. This approach leveraged the power of big acoustic and big visual data to add to the catalog of known species-specific acoustic signals and yield new inferences about odontocete spatiotemporal distribution patterns. The tools and call types described here can be used for efficient analysis of other existing and future passive acoustic data sets from this region.

Reconstructing the early global dynamics of under-ascertained COVID-19 cases and infections

BACKGROUND

Asymptomatic or subclinical SARS-CoV-2 infections are often unreported, which means that confirmed case counts may not accurately reflect underlying epidemic dynamics. Understanding the level of ascertainment (the ratio of confirmed symptomatic cases to the true number of symptomatic individuals) and undetected epidemic progression is crucial to informing COVID-19 response planning, including the introduction and relaxation of control measures. Estimating case ascertainment over time allows for accurate estimates of specific outcomes such as seroprevalence, which is essential for planning control measures.

METHODS

Using reported data on COVID-19 cases and fatalities globally, we estimated the proportion of symptomatic cases (i.e. any person with any of fever ≥ 37.5 °C, cough, shortness of breath, sudden onset of anosmia, ageusia or dysgeusia illness) that were reported in 210 countries and territories, given those countries had experienced more than ten deaths. We used published estimates of the baseline case fatality ratio (CFR), which was adjusted for delays and under-ascertainment, then calculated the ratio of this baseline CFR to an estimated local delay-adjusted CFR to estimate the level of under-ascertainment in a particular location. We then fit a Bayesian Gaussian process model to estimate the temporal pattern of under-ascertainment.

RESULTS

Based on reported cases and deaths, we estimated that, during March 2020, the median percentage of symptomatic cases detected across the 84 countries which experienced more than ten deaths ranged from 2.4% (Bangladesh) to 100% (Chile). Across the ten countries with the highest number of total confirmed cases as of 6 July 2020, we estimated that the peak number of symptomatic cases ranged from 1.4 times (Chile) to 18 times (France) larger than reported. Comparing our model with national and regional seroprevalence data where available, we find that our estimates are consistent with observed values. Finally, we estimated seroprevalence for each country. As of 7 June, our seroprevalence estimates range from 0% (many countries) to 13% (95% CrI 5.6-24%) (Belgium).

CONCLUSIONS

We found substantial under-ascertainment of symptomatic cases, particularly at the peak of the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, in many countries. Reported case counts will therefore likely underestimate the rate of outbreak growth initially and underestimate the decline in the later stages of an epidemic. Although there was considerable under-reporting in many locations, our estimates were consistent with emerging serological data, suggesting that the proportion of each country's population infected with SARS-CoV-2 worldwide is generally low.

Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies

Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions (lockdowns) were introduced worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement exit strategies that relax restrictions while attempting to control the risk of a surge in cases. Mathematical modelling has played a central role in guiding interventions, but the challenge of designing optimal exit strategies in the face of ongoing transmission is unprecedented. Here, we report discussions from the Isaac Newton Institute 'Models for an exit strategy' workshop (11-15 May 2020). A diverse community of modellers who are providing evidence to governments worldwide were asked to identify the main questions that, if answered, would allow for more accurate predictions of the effects of different exit strategies. Based on these questions, we propose a roadmap to facilitate the development of reliable models to guide exit strategies. This roadmap requires a global collaborative effort from the scientific community and policymakers, and has three parts: (i) improve estimation of key epidemiological parameters; (ii) understand sources of heterogeneity in populations; and (iii) focus on requirements for data collection, particularly in low-to-middle-income countries. This will provide important information for planning exit strategies that balance socio-economic benefits with public health.