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Li W, Manzanedo RD, Jiang Y, Ma W, Du E, Zhao S, Rademacher T, Dong M, Xu H, Kang X, Wang J, Wu F, Cui X, Pederson N. Reassessment of growth-climate relations indicates the potential for decline across Eurasian boreal larch forests. Nat Commun 2023; 14:3358. [PMID: 37291110 PMCID: PMC10250375 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-39057-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2022] [Accepted: 05/23/2023] [Indexed: 06/10/2023] Open
Abstract
Larch, a widely distributed tree in boreal Eurasia, is experiencing rapid warming across much of its distribution. A comprehensive assessment of growth on warming is needed to comprehend the potential impact of climate change. Most studies, relying on rigid calendar-based temperature series, have detected monotonic responses at the margins of boreal Eurasia, but not across the region. Here, we developed a method for constructing temporally flexible and physiologically relevant temperature series to reassess growth-temperature relations of larch across boreal Eurasia. Our method appears more effective in assessing the impact of warming on growth than previous methods. Our approach indicates widespread and spatially heterogeneous growth-temperature responses that are driven by local climate. Models quantifying these results project that the negative responses of growth to temperature will spread northward and upward throughout this century. If true, the risks of warming to boreal Eurasia could be more widespread than conveyed from previous works.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenqing Li
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Traditional Chinese Medicine Protection and Utilization, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, Zhuhai, 519087, China
- Key Laboratory of Land Consolidation and Rehabilitation, Land Consolidation and Rehabilitation Center, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing, 100035, China
| | - Rubén D Manzanedo
- Harvard Forest, Harvard University, Petersham, MA, 01366, USA
- Plant Ecology, Institute of Integrative Biology, D-USYS, ETH Zürich, 8006, Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Yuan Jiang
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Traditional Chinese Medicine Protection and Utilization, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, Zhuhai, 519087, China.
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China.
| | - Wenqiu Ma
- College of Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100083, China
| | - Enzai Du
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
| | - Shoudong Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China
| | - Tim Rademacher
- Harvard Forest, Harvard University, Petersham, MA, 01366, USA
- Institut des Sciences de la Forêt Tempérée, Université du Québec en Outaouais, Ripon, J0V 1V0, QC, Canada
| | - Manyu Dong
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Traditional Chinese Medicine Protection and Utilization, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, Zhuhai, 519087, China
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
| | - Hui Xu
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Health Sciences, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, 01003, USA
| | - Xinyu Kang
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Boston University, 111 Cummington Mall, Boston, MA, 02215, USA
| | - Jun Wang
- Key Laboratory of Land Consolidation and Rehabilitation, Land Consolidation and Rehabilitation Center, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing, 100035, China
| | - Fang Wu
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Traditional Chinese Medicine Protection and Utilization, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, Zhuhai, 519087, China
- School of Systems Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
| | - Xuefeng Cui
- School of Systems Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
| | - Neil Pederson
- Harvard Forest, Harvard University, Petersham, MA, 01366, USA
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