Improving dengue fever predictions in Taiwan based on feature selection and random forests

BACKGROUND

Dengue fever is a well-studied vector-borne disease in tropical and subtropical areas of the world. Several methods for predicting the occurrence of dengue fever in Taiwan have been proposed. However, to the best of our knowledge, no study has investigated the relationship between air quality indices (AQIs) and dengue fever in Taiwan.

RESULTS

This study aimed to develop a dengue fever prediction model in which meteorological factors, a vector index, and AQIs were incorporated into different machine learning algorithms. A total of 805 meteorological records from 2013 to 2015 were collected from government open-source data after preprocessing. In addition to well-known dengue-related factors, we investigated the effects of novel variables, including particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 10 µm (PM10), PM2.5, and an ultraviolet index, for predicting dengue fever occurrence. The collected dataset was randomly divided into an 80% training set and a 20% test set. The experimental results showed that the random forests achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.9547 for the test set, which was the best compared with the other machine learning algorithms. In addition, the temperature was the most important factor in our variable importance analysis, and it showed a positive effect on dengue fever at < 30 °C but had less of an effect at > 30 °C. The AQIs were not as important as temperature, but one was selected in the process of filtering the variables and showed a certain influence on the final results.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study is the first to demonstrate that AQI negatively affects dengue fever occurrence in Taiwan. The proposed prediction model can be used as an early warning system for public health to prevent dengue fever outbreaks.

Managing type 1 diabetes of a child: Parents' perspectives

PURPOSE

Managing type 1 diabetes (T1D) challenges children and their parents. Parents need to learn the necessary skills and later transfer the responsibility of care to their children as they develop. The transition process involves autonomy in behaviour and decision-making. This study explores the shared management experiences of Taiwanese parents and their children with type 1 diabetes.

DESIGN AND METHODS

This study employed a qualitative design using a grounded theory approach. Purposive sampling was used at a medical centre in Taiwan for participant recruitment. Twenty-nine parents of children who had been diagnosed with T1D were interviewed in-depth. Data were analysed using constant comparison and repeated verification.

RESULTS

After a child was diagnosed with T1D, the parents initiated 'Life-long lesson: Growing together with the child on the road to normality'. Three main categories emerged: 'confronting the disease diagnosis', 'establishing supportive and collaborative involvement' and 'assisting the child in building a sense of belonging'. Sub-categories within each significant category were also included.

CONCLUSIONS

Taiwanese parents perhaps have a controlling or directive role for a long period in their child's lives and shared management of their health condition. This study's findings can help healthcare workers better understand the process of parents' shared management of T1D with their children and how to best communicate with children about the disease and care in accordance with the child's stage of development.

The association between interest of nutritional supplements and COVID-19 pandemic - evidence from Google Trends

BACKGROUND

Due to the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in 2020, the interest of nutritional supplements has emerged. Limited data are available on how the COVID-19 pandemic affects the search interest in nutritional supplements in Taiwan and worldwide. The study aims to investigate changes in public search interest of nutritional supplements pre- and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

Our World in Data dataset was used to collect both global and local (Taiwan) number of COVID-19 newly confirmed cases and deaths. Google Trends search query was being used to obtain relative search volumes (RSVs) covering a timeframe between 2019 to 2022. Spearman's rank-order correlation coefficients were used to measure relationships between confirmed new cases and deaths and RSVs of nutritional supplements. Multivariate analysis was conducted to examine the effect of domestic and global new cases and deaths on the RSVs of nutritional supplements.

RESULTS

The mean RSVs for nutritional supplements were higher during the COVID-19 pandemic period (between 2020 to 2022) compared to the pre-pandemic period (year of 2019) for both Taiwan and worldwide. In terms of seasonal variations, except for vitamin D, the mean RSVs of probiotics, vitamin B complex, and vitamin C in winter were significantly lower compared to other seasons in Taiwan. The RSVs of nutritional supplements were not only affected by domestic cases and deaths but also by global new cases and deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

The interests in nutritional supplements had substantially increased in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The RSVs of nutritional supplements in Taiwan were not only influenced by global and domestic pandemic severity but also by seasons.

Effects of rope skipping exercise on physical, cardiovascular fitness and exercise tolerance in adolescent students with moderate intellectual disability

BACKGROUND

Adolescents with intellectual disabilities (ID) who live a sedentary lifestyle may lead to an increased risk of chronic cardiovascular disease in adulthood. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of 8-week progressive rope skipping training on physical, cardiovascular fitness and exercise tolerance of high school students with moderate ID.

METHODS

Thirty-four senior high school with ID (aged 15-18 years old) were randomised into experimental group received progressive skipping rope exercise (RS, n = 17) and control group no rope skipping exercise intervention group (CON, n = 17). The RS group were received progressive rope skipping exercise for 50 min each time, three times a week, for 8 weeks. The control group was not allowed to participate in intervention activities during the study period. The physical fitness, body composition, arterial stiffness index (ASI) and blood pressure were measured before and after the 8-week intervention.

RESULTS

After the 8-week progressive skipping rope exercise intervention, the participants from the RS group increased in the 3-min step test, sit-up test, grip strength and sit and reach test, when compared to the baseline (P < 0.05). The RS group exhibited lower the area under curve of heart rate (HR) during post-exercise recovery (P < 0.05). The participants in the RS group showed significant decreases in systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressure, mean arterial pressure (MAP) and HR when compared to the baseline (P < 0.05). Change SBP has moderate positive correlation with change ASI.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this experiment suggest that progressive rope skipping exercise might improve physical fitness and promote cardiovascular health, as well as enhance exercise tolerance for adolescent students with moderate ID.