Abstract
Objectives
We aimed to evaluate the relationships between climate variability, animal reservoirs and scrub typhus incidence in Southern China.
Methods
We obtained data on scrub typhus cases in Guangzhou every month from 2006 to 2014 from the Chinese communicable disease network. Time-series Poisson regression models and distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) were used to evaluate the relationship between risk factors and scrub typhus.
Results
Wavelet analysis found the incidence of scrub typhus cycled with a period of approximately 8–12 months and long-term trends with a period of approximately 24–36 months. The DLNM model shows that relative humidity, rainfall, DTR, MEI and rodent density were associated with the incidence of scrub typhus.
Conclusions
Our findings suggest that the incidence scrub typhus has two main temporal cycles. Determining the reason for this trend and how it can be used for disease control and prevention requires additional research. The transmission of scrub typhus is highly dependent on climate factors and rodent density, both of which should be considered in prevention and control strategies for scrub typhus.
Scrub typhus has been endemic in southern China for several decades. In recent years, it has been increasingly reported and has become a significant health concern in China. The incidence of scrub typhus, a vector-borne disease, is influenced by the density of rats and changes in climate. Several studies have focused on the influence of climate and rat density on scrub typhus independent of one another; however, few studies investigate such factors simultaneously. Furthermore, global climate events such as El Niño have not been considered in any study of scrub typhus risk factors. This study reports novel factor research of scrub typhus in southern China. Data of climate, rat density and cases were collected on a monthly basis. Time-series Poisson regression models and distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) were used to evaluate the relationship between risk factors and scrub typhus. Finally, relative humidity, rainfall, DTR, MEI and rodent density were identified as risk factors of the incidence of scrub typhus.
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