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Mousa A, Al-Taiar A, Anstey NM, Badaut C, Barber BE, Bassat Q, Challenger JD, Cunnington AJ, Datta D, Drakeley C, Ghani AC, Gordeuk VR, Grigg MJ, Hugo P, John CC, Mayor A, Migot-Nabias F, Opoka RO, Pasvol G, Rees C, Reyburn H, Riley EM, Shah BN, Sitoe A, Sutherland CJ, Thuma PE, Unger SA, Viwami F, Walther M, Whitty CJM, William T, Okell LC. The impact of delayed treatment of uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria on progression to severe malaria: A systematic review and a pooled multicentre individual-patient meta-analysis. PLoS Med 2020; 17:e1003359. [PMID: 33075101 PMCID: PMC7571702 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003359] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2020] [Accepted: 08/26/2020] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Delay in receiving treatment for uncomplicated malaria (UM) is often reported to increase the risk of developing severe malaria (SM), but access to treatment remains low in most high-burden areas. Understanding the contribution of treatment delay on progression to severe disease is critical to determine how quickly patients need to receive treatment and to quantify the impact of widely implemented treatment interventions, such as 'test-and-treat' policies administered by community health workers (CHWs). We conducted a pooled individual-participant meta-analysis to estimate the association between treatment delay and presenting with SM. METHODS AND FINDINGS A search using Ovid MEDLINE and Embase was initially conducted to identify studies on severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria that included information on treatment delay, such as fever duration (inception to 22nd September 2017). Studies identified included 5 case-control and 8 other observational clinical studies of SM and UM cases. Risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale, and all studies were ranked as 'Good', scoring ≥7/10. Individual-patient data (IPD) were pooled from 13 studies of 3,989 (94.1% aged <15 years) SM patients and 5,780 (79.6% aged <15 years) UM cases in Benin, Malaysia, Mozambique, Tanzania, The Gambia, Uganda, Yemen, and Zambia. Definitions of SM were standardised across studies to compare treatment delay in patients with UM and different SM phenotypes using age-adjusted mixed-effects regression. The odds of any SM phenotype were significantly higher in children with longer delays between initial symptoms and arrival at the health facility (odds ratio [OR] = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.07-1.64 for a delay of >24 hours versus ≤24 hours; p = 0.009). Reported illness duration was a strong predictor of presenting with severe malarial anaemia (SMA) in children, with an OR of 2.79 (95% CI:1.92-4.06; p < 0.001) for a delay of 2-3 days and 5.46 (95% CI: 3.49-8.53; p < 0.001) for a delay of >7 days, compared with receiving treatment within 24 hours from symptom onset. We estimate that 42.8% of childhood SMA cases and 48.5% of adult SMA cases in the study areas would have been averted if all individuals were able to access treatment within the first day of symptom onset, if the association is fully causal. In studies specifically recording onset of nonsevere symptoms, long treatment delay was moderately associated with other SM phenotypes (OR [95% CI] >3 to ≤4 days versus ≤24 hours: cerebral malaria [CM] = 2.42 [1.24-4.72], p = 0.01; respiratory distress syndrome [RDS] = 4.09 [1.70-9.82], p = 0.002). In addition to unmeasured confounding, which is commonly present in observational studies, a key limitation is that many severe cases and deaths occur outside healthcare facilities in endemic countries, where the effect of delayed or no treatment is difficult to quantify. CONCLUSIONS Our results quantify the relationship between rapid access to treatment and reduced risk of severe disease, which was particularly strong for SMA. There was some evidence to suggest that progression to other severe phenotypes may also be prevented by prompt treatment, though the association was not as strong, which may be explained by potential selection bias, sample size issues, or a difference in underlying pathology. These findings may help assess the impact of interventions that improve access to treatment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andria Mousa
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- * E-mail:
| | - Abdullah Al-Taiar
- School of Community & Environmental Health, College of Health Sciences, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia, United States of America
| | - Nicholas M. Anstey
- Global Health Division, Menzies School of Health Research and Charles Darwin University, Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia
- Division of Medicine, Royal Darwin Hospital, Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia
| | - Cyril Badaut
- Unité de Biothérapie Infectieuse et Immunité, Institut de Recherche Biomédicale des Armées, Brétigny-sur-Orge, France
- Unité des Virus Emergents (UVE: Aix-Marseille Univ—IRD 190—Inserm 1207—IHU Méditerranée Infection), Marseille, France
| | - Bridget E. Barber
- Global Health Division, Menzies School of Health Research and Charles Darwin University, Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia
- QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Quique Bassat
- ISGlobal, Hospital Clínic, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
- Centro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça (CISM), Maputo, Mozambique
- ICREA, Barcelona, Spain
- Pediatric Infectious Diseases Unit, Pediatrics Department, Hospital Sant Joan de Déu (University of Barcelona), Barcelona, Spain
- Consorcio de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - Joseph D. Challenger
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Aubrey J. Cunnington
- Section of Paediatric Infectious Disease, Department of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
| | - Dibyadyuti Datta
- Ryan White Center for Pediatric Infectious Disease and Global Health, Department of Pediatrics, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis, Indiana, United States of America
| | - Chris Drakeley
- Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Azra C. Ghani
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Victor R. Gordeuk
- Sickle Cell Center, Department of Medicine, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, United States of America
| | - Matthew J. Grigg
- Global Health Division, Menzies School of Health Research and Charles Darwin University, Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia
| | - Pierre Hugo
- Medicines for Malaria Venture, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Chandy C. John
- Ryan White Center for Pediatric Infectious Disease and Global Health, Department of Pediatrics, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis, Indiana, United States of America
| | - Alfredo Mayor
- ISGlobal, Hospital Clínic, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
- Centro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça (CISM), Maputo, Mozambique
- Consorcio de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | | | - Robert O. Opoka
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Makerere University School of Medicine, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Geoffrey Pasvol
- Imperial College London, Department of Life Sciences, London, United Kingdom
| | - Claire Rees
- Centre for Global Public Health, Institute of Population Health Sciences, Barts & The London School of Medicine & Dentistry, London, United Kingdom
| | - Hugh Reyburn
- Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Eleanor M. Riley
- Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Institute of Immunology and Infection Research, School of Biological Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Binal N. Shah
- Sickle Cell Center, Department of Medicine, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, United States of America
| | - Antonio Sitoe
- Centro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça (CISM), Maputo, Mozambique
| | - Colin J. Sutherland
- Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | | | - Stefan A. Unger
- Department of Child Life and Health, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Royal Hospital for Sick Children, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Firmine Viwami
- Institut de Recherche Clinique du Bénin (IRCB), Cotonou, Benin
| | - Michael Walther
- Medical Research Council Unit, Fajara, The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
| | - Christopher J. M. Whitty
- Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Timothy William
- Infectious Diseases Society Sabah-Menzies School of Health Research Clinical Research Unit, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia
- Gleneagles Hospital, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia
| | - Lucy C. Okell
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
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