Investigation on the driver-victim pairs in pedestrian and bicyclist crashes by latent class clustering and random forest algorithm

Pedestrians and bicyclists from marginalized and underserved populations experienced disproportionate fatalities and injury rates due to traffic crashes in the US. This disparity among road users of different races and the increasing trend of traffic risk for underserved racial groups called for an urgent agenda for transportation policy making and research to ensure equity in roadway safety. Pedestrian and bicyclist crashes involved drivers and pedestrians/bicyclists; the latter were usually victims. Traditional safety studies did not account for the interaction between the two parties and assumed that they were independent from each other. In this study we paired the driver and pedestrian/bicyclist involved in the same crash to understand the socioeconomic and demographic make-up of the two parties involved in crashes and assessed the geographic distribution of these crashes and crash-contributing factors. For this purpose, we applied thelatent class clustering analysis (LCA) to classify different crash types and analyze the patterns of the crashes based on the income and ethnicity of both drivers and victims involved in pedestrian and bicyclist crashes. We then used random forest algorithms and partial dependence plots (PDPs) to model and interpreted the contributing factors of the clusters in both pedestrian and bicyclist models. The clustering results showed a pattern of social segregation in pedestrian and bicyclist crashes that drivers and victims with similar socioeconomic characteristics tend to be involved in one crash. Pedestrian/bicyclist exposure, driver's age, victim's age, year of the car in use, annual average daily traffic (AADT), speed limit, roadbed width, and lane width were the most influential factors contributing to this pattern. Crashes that involved drivers and victims with lower income and non-white ethnicity tended to happen in the location with higher pedestrian/bicyclist exposure, higher speed limit, and wider road. The findings of this research can help to inform the decision-making process for improving safety to ensure equitable and sustainable safety for all road users and communities.

Assessment of inequity in bicyclist crashes using bivariate Bayesian copulas

INTRODUCTION

Physical activity associated with active transport modes such as bicycling has major health benefits and can help to reduce health concerns related to sedentary lifestyles, such as cardiovascular disease, Type II diabetes, and obesity, as well as risks of colon and breast cancer, high blood pressure, lipid disorders, osteoporosis, depression, and anxiety. However, as a vulnerable user group, bicyclists experience negative health impacts of transportation policies and infrastructure, such as traffic crashes and exposure to air and noise pollution that is disproportionately distributed within low-income and underserved areas.

METHOD

This study used aggregated (block-group) bicyclist crash data from Harris County, Texas, to analyze how various equity measures are associated with both fatal and injury (FI) and no injury (property damage only) bicyclist crashes that occurred from 2010 to 2017. We used Bayesian bivariate copula-based random effects regression analysis to evaluate these associations. In contrast to more traditional univariate analysis, this novel methodology can consider the effects of factors of interest across different severity levels or crash types to fully understand their effects and how they may differ across categories.

RESULTS

The analysis results indicate that the bicyclist exposure, vehicle exposure, population demographics, population density, the percentage of African-Americans, and households below the poverty level are associated with both FI and PDO bicyclist crashes.

CONCLUSIONS

Although more location and context-specific analyses are required, this study's overall results once again conform with the findings and assumptions in bicycling safety literature that the low-income and racially diverse communities are prone to experience more bicyclist crashes.

PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS

The findings of this study may have implications for future transportation and planning policies. These findings can be used to guide the policies and strategies targeting the elimination of inequity in transportation-related health concerns.