The economic burden of systemic lupus erythematosus in United Arab Emirates

AIMS

Our study aims to provide an enhanced comprehension of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) burden in United Arab Emirates (UAE), over a five-year period from payer and societal perspective.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A Markov model was established to simulate the economic consequences of SLE among UAE population. It included four health states: i) the three phenotypes of SLE, representing mild, moderate, and severe states, and ii) death. Clinical parameters were retrieved from previous literature and validated using the Delphi panel-the most common clinical practice within the Emirati healthcare system. We calculated the disease management, transient events, and indirect costs by macro costing. One-way sensitivity analysis was conducted.

RESULTS

The estimated number of SLE patients in our study was 13,359. The number of SLE patients with mild, moderate, and severe phenotypes was 3,914, 8,109, and 1,336, respectively. Disease management costs, including treatment of each phenotype and disease follow-up, were AED 2 billion ($0.89 billion), whereas the costs of transient events (infections, flares, and consequences of SLE-related organ damage) were AED 1 billion ($0.44 billion). The productivity loss costs among adult-employed patients with SLE in the UAE were estimated at AED 7 billion ($3.1 billion). The total SLE cost over five years from payer and societal perspectives is estimated at AED 3 ($1.3 billion) and 10 billion ($4.4 billion), respectively. Additionally, the costs per patient per year from the payer and societal perspectives were AED 45,960 ($20,610) and AED 148,468 ($66,578), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our findings demonstrate that the burden of SLE in the UAE is enormous, mainly because of the costly complications and productivity loss. More awareness should be created to limit the progression of SLE and reduce the occurrence of flares, necessitating further economic evaluations of novel treatments that could help reduce the economic consequences of SLE in the UAE.

Microsimulation model of the cost-effectiveness of anifrolumab compared to belimumab in the United Arab Emirates

INTRODUCTION

SLE imposes a significant morbidity and mortality as well as a substantial burden on the healthcare system. The model aimed to measure the cost-effectiveness of anifrolumab implementation against belimumab as an add-on-therapy to the standard of care (SoC) over a lifetime horizon for Emirati patients.

METHODOLOGY

A microsimulation model was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of anifrolumab against belimumab (IV/SC) as an add-on therapy to SoC in a hypothetical cohort of adult Emirati patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) over a lifetime horizon. The clinical data was captured from published clinical trials as; TULIP-1, TULIP-2, BLISS-52, BLISS-76 and BLISS-SC. Health utility scores were constructed according to a linear regression model from the pooled data of the two TULIP Phase III trials of anifrolumab. Our model captures direct SLE-related medical costs from the Dubai Health Authority. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess model uncertainty.

RESULTS

Using BICLA as a response criterion in the Johns Hopkins cohort, anifrolumab was found to be more effective than belimumab (IV/SC; the incremental discounted QALY of anifrolumab against belimumab was 0.42). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of anifrolumab against belimumab IV and belimumab SC were AED 466,371 ($209,135) and AED 252,612 ($113,279), respectively, these ICERs are below the cost-effectiveness threshold in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) (three times gross domestic product capita; AED 592,278). In the Toronto lupus cohort, the ICER of anifrolumab against belimumab IV and belimumab SC were AED 491,403 ($220,360) and AED 276,642 ($124,055), respectively (anifrolumab was a cost-effective option vs. belimumab IV and belimumab SC).

CONCLUSION

The addition of anifrolumab to SoC is a cost-effective option versus belimumab for the treatment of adult patients with active, autoantibody-positive SLE, despite being allocated to SoC. Cost-effectiveness was demonstrated by a reduction in complications and organ damage, which reflected costs and outcomes.

Clinical and economic burden of systemic lupus erythematosus in Colombia

AIMS

Our cost-of-illness (COI) model adopted payer and societal perspectives over five years to measure the economic burden of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) in Colombia.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A prevalence-based model was constructed to estimate costs and economic consequences for SLE patients in Colombia. The model included four health states: three phenotypes of SLE representing mild, moderate, and severe states and death. The clinical inputs were captured from the published literature and validated by the Delphi panel. Our model measured direct medical and indirect costs, including disease management, transient events, and indirect costs. One-way sensitivity analysis was also performed.

RESULTS

The number of Colombian SLE patients was 37,498. The number of SLE patients with mild, moderate, and severe phenotypes was 5343, 28757 and 3,397, respectively. SLE-patients with moderate (Colombian pesos; COP 146 billion) and severe phenotypes (COP276 billion) incurred higher costs than those with mild phenotypes (COP2 billion), over 5 years. The total SLE cost in Colombia over five years from the payer and societal perspectives was estimated to be COP 915 billion and 8 trillion, respectively. The costs per patient per year from the payer and societal perspectives were COP 4,881,902 ($3,510) and COP 46,637,054 ($33,528), respectively.

CONCLUSION

The burden of SLE in Colombia over five years is substantially high, mainly due to the consequences of economic loss because it affects women and men of working age, in addition to the costs of SLE management and its consequences, such as flares, infection, and organ damage. Our COI indicated that disease management costs among patients with moderate and severe SLE were substantially higher than those among patients with a mild phenotype. Therefore, more attention should be paid to limiting the progression of SLE and the occurrence of flares, with the need for further economic evaluation of novel treatment strategies that help in disease control.

Economic burden of systemic lupus erythematosus in Malaysia

INTRODUCTION

Our cost-of-illness (COI) model adopted the perspective of both payer and society over a time horizon of 5 years to measure the economic burden of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in Malaysia.

METHODOLOGY

Our COI model utilized a prevalence-based model to estimate the costs and economic consequences of SLE in Malaysia. The clinical parameters were obtained from published literature and validated using the Delphi panel. Direct and indirect medical costs were measured, including disease management, transient events, and indirect costs. One-way sensitivity analysis was also performed.

RESULTS

The number of target Malaysian patients with SLE in the COI model was 18,121. At diagnosis, the numbers of SLE patients with mild, moderate, and severe phenotypes were 2,582, 13,897, and 1,642, respectively. The total SLE cost in Malaysia over 5 years from both payer and society perspectives was estimated at MYR 678 million and 2 billion, respectively. The results showed a considerable cost burden due to productivity losses resulting from SLE-related morbidity and mortality. Over a 5-year time horizon, the costs per patient per year from the payer and society perspectives were MYR 7,484 ($4766) and 24,281($15,465), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our study demonstrated the substantial economic burden of SLE in Malaysia over a time horizon of 5 years. It affects adults of working age, in addition to the costs of SLE management and its consequences, such as flares, infection, and organ damage. Our COI model indicated that disease management costs among patients with higher disease severity were higher than those among patients with a mild phenotype. Hence, more attetion should be paid to limiting the progression of SLE and the occurrence of flares, with the need for further economic evaluation of novel treatments that could lead to better outcomes.

The economic burden of systemic lupus erythematosus in Mexico

AIMS

Our cost of illness study aimed to provide an estimate of the burden related to systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in the Mexican context.

METHODS

Our model was used to simulate the resource utilization and economic consequences over a period of 5 years for patients with SLE in Mexico. The model simulated four health states-three phenotypes of SLE, including mild, moderate, and severe states, and death. Clinical parameters were retrieved from the literature. Resource utilization in our model represents the most common practice in the Mexican healthcare system. These include disease management, transient events (e.g. infections, flares, and complications due to SLE-related organ damage), and indirect costs. Direct non-medical costs were not considered. One-way sensitivity analysis was performed.

RESULTS

The number of targeted Mexican SLE patients was 57,754. The numbers of SLE patients diagnosed with mild, moderate, and severe phenotypes were 8,230, 44,291, and 5,233, respectively. Disease management costs, including the treatment of each phenotype and disease follow-up, were MXN 4 billion ($ 415 million); the costs of transient events (infections, flares, and consequences of SLE-related organ damage) were MXN 5 billion ($ 478 million). Productivity loss costs among adult employed Mexican patients with SLE were estimated at MXN 17 billion ($ 1.6 billion). The total SLE cost in Mexico over 5 years from the payer and societal perspectives is estimated at MXN 9 billion ($ 893 million) and 26 billion ($ 2.5 billion), respectively. Over 5 years, the costs per patient per year from the payer and societal perspectives were MXN 32,131($ 3,095) and MXN 91,661($ 8,830), respectively.

CONCLUSION

The findings pointed out the substantial economic burden associated with SLE, including the costs of disease progression and SLE transient events, such as flare-ups, infections, and organ damage, in addition to productivity loss due to work capacity impairment.

The economic burden of systemic lupus erythematosus in Taiwan

BACKGROUND

Our cost-of-illness (COI) model adopted both payer and societal perspectives over a time horizon of 5 years to measure the economic burden of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in Taiwan.

METHODOLOGY

A prevalence-based model was established to estimate the economic consequences of SLE after diagnosis in Taiwan. The model included four health states: (i) the three phenotypes representing mild, moderate, and severe SLE, and (ii) death. The inputs were obtained from a literature review of all the clinical trials and validated using a Delphi panel. The Delphi panel's insights included commonly used treatment strategies for patients with SLE within the Taiwanese healthcare system. The costs mentioned in this model are disease management, monitoring, transient event, and indirect costs. One-way sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the model uncertainty.

RESULTS

The number of patients with SLE in our COI model was 20,189. At diagnosis, the number of SLE patients with mild, moderate, and severe phenotypes was 5,916, 12,255, and 2019, respectively. The total SLE cost in Taiwan over 5 years from both payer and societal perspectives was estimated at TWD 3.9 and 47 billion, respectively. The costs per patient per year from the payer and societal perspective were TWD 38,775 ($2,758) and TWD 466,119 ($33,152), respectively.

CONCLUSION

The findings demonstrated that the burden of SLE in Taiwan over a time horizon of 5 years is substantially high, mainly due to the consequences of economic loss as it affects women and men during their working age, in addition to the costs of SLE management and its consequences, such as flares, infection, and organ damage. Therefore, more attention should be paid to limiting the progression of SLE and the occurrence of flares, and further economic evaluations are necessary to assess novel treatment strategies that could control the disease.

A cost-consequence model of using the 21-gene assay to identify patients with early-stage node-positive breast cancer who benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy in the Netherlands

BACKGROUND

Patients with early-stage hormone receptor positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2) negative invasive breast cancer with 1-3 positive lymph nodes (N1) often undergo surgical excisions followed by adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT). Many patients have no benefit from ACT and receive unnecessary, costly treatment often associated with short- and long-term adverse events (AEs). Gene expression profiling (GEP) assays, such as the 21-gene assay (i.e. the Oncotype DX assay), can identify patients at higher risk for recurrence who may benefit from ACT. However, the budgetary consequence of using the Oncotype DX assay versus no GEP testing in the Netherlands is unknown. Our study therefore assessed it using a cost-consequence model.

METHODS

A validated model was used to create the N1 model. The model compared the costs and consequences of using the Oncotype DX assay versus no GEP testing and MammaPrint, and subsequent ACT use with corresponding costs for chemotherapy, treatment of AEs, productivity losses, GEP testing, and treatment of recurrences, according to the Oncotype DX results. The model time horizon was 5 years.

RESULTS

Costs for the total population amounted to €8.0 million (M), €16.2 M, and €9.5 M, and cost per patient amounted to €13,540, €27,455, and €16,154 for using the Oncotype DX assay, no GEP testing, and MammaPrint, respectively. Total cost savings of using the Oncotype DX assay amounted to €8.2 M versus no GEP testing and €1.5 M versus MammaPrint. Using the Oncotype DX assay would result in fewer patients receiving ACT and thus fewer AEs, sick days, and hospitalizations, leading to overall cost savings compared with no GEP testing and MammaPrint.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementing Oncotype DX testing in this population can prevent unnecessary overtreatment, reducing clinical and economic burden on the patient and Dutch healthcare system.

Cost-effectiveness of selective internal radiation therapy with Y-90 resin microspheres for intermediate- and advanced-stage hepatocellular carcinoma in Brazil

AimsHepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a severe condition with poor prognosis that places a significant burden on patients, caregivers, and healthcare systems. Selective internal radiation therapy (SIRT) is a treatment available to patients with HCC which addresses some of the limitations of alternative treatment options. A cost-effectiveness analysis was undertaken into the use of SIRT using Y-90 resin microspheres for the treatment of unresectable, intermediate- and late-stage HCC in Brazil.Materials and methodsA partitioned-survival model was developed, including a tunnel state for patients downstaged to receive treatments with curative intent. Sorafenib was the selected comparator, a common systemic treatment in Brazil and for which comparative evidence exists. Clinical data were extracted from published sources of pivotal trials, and effectiveness was measured in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and life-years (LYs). The analysis was conducted from the Brazilian private payer perspective and a lifetime horizon was implemented. Comprehensive sensitivity analyses were conducted.ResultsLYs and QALYs were higher for SIRT with Y-90 resin microspheres versus sorafenib (0.27 and 0.20 incremental LYs and QALYs, respectively) and costs were slightly higher for SIRT (R$15,864). The base case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was R$77,602 per QALY. The ICER was mostly influenced by parameters defining the sorafenib overall survival curve and SIRT had a 73% probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of R$135,761 per QALY (three times the per-capita gross domestic product in Brazil). Overall, sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the results indicating that SIRT with Y-90 resin microspheres is cost-effective compared with sorafenib.LimitationsA rapidly evolving treatment landscape in Brazil and worldwide, and the lack of local data for some variables were the main limitations.ConclusionsSIRT with Y-90 resin microspheres is a cost-effective option compared with sorafenib in Brazil.

Projecting the potential cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin for chronic kidney disease in Kuwait

INTRODUCTION

In 2019, the prevalence of dialysis in Kuwait were 465 patient/million population, while the annual mortality rate among dialysis patients reached 12%. To improve resource allocation within the health care system, a cost-effectiveness model was conducted from a societal perspective to assess the cost-effectiveness of the use of dapagliflozin as an add-on-therapy against SoC (ramipril) among CKD patients with or without type-2 diabetes over their lifetime.

METHODOLOGY

A Markov process model was utilized to assess the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin + ramipril versus ramipril alone on a cohort of patients with an eGFR of 25 to 75 mL/min/1.73, with or without type-2 diabetes and a urinary ACR of 200 to 5,000 over their lifetime. The model included nine health states: (i) the six stages of CKD representing stages 1, 2, 3a, 3b, 4 and 5; (ii)ESRD, which represents RRT as dialysis or kidney transplant and (iii) death. Most of the clinical data were captured from the DAPA-CKD study. We assumed that the mortality risk of our study was similar to DAPA-CKD. The utility data were captured from different studies. Direct medical and indirect costs were captured from local data sources. Sensitivity analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

The difference in QALY between dapagliflozin + ramipril versus ramipril was 0.2. The difference in cost between the two arms was KWD -4,120 (-USD25750). Dapagliflozin + ramipril generate better QALYs and lower costs than ramipril in CKD patients. Dapagliflozin improved the outcomes and generated cost savings in CKD patients.

CONCLUSION

Adoption of dapagliflozin + ramipril is considered to be a cost saving option in addition to the improvement in QALYs in CKD patients with or without type-2 diabetes due to its nephroprotective effect, regardless of the aetiology of CKD, which eventually leads to reduction of dialysis and the transplantation cost burden on the Kuwaiti health care system. This study was focussed only on DAPA-CKD cohort.

Reflex single-gene non-invasive prenatal testing is associated with markedly better detection of fetuses affected with single-gene recessive disorders at lower cost

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the clinical benefits and achievable cost savings associated with the adoption of a carrier screen with reflex single-gene non-invasive prenatal test (sgNIPT) in prenatal care.

METHOD

A decision-analytic model was developed to compare carrier screen with reflex sgNIPT (maternal carrier status and fetal risk reported together) as first-line carrier screening to the traditional carrier screening workflow (positive maternal carrier screen followed by paternal screening to evaluate fetal risk). The model compared the clinical outcomes and healthcare costs associated with the two screening methods. These results were used to simulate appropriate pricing for reflex sgNIPT.

RESULTS

Reflex sgNIPT carrier screening-detected 108 of 110 affected pregnancies per 100,000 births (98.5% sensitivity), whereas traditional carrier screening-detected 46 of 110 affected pregnancies (41.5% sensitivity). The cost to identify one affected pregnancy was reduced by 62% in the reflex sgNIPT scenario compared to the traditional scenario. Adding together the testing cost savings and the savings from earlier clinical intervention made possible by reflex sgNIPT, the total cost savings was $37.6 million per 100,000 pregnancies. Based on these cost savings, we simulated appropriate reflex sgNIPT pricing range: if the cost to identify one affected pregnancy is the unit cost, carrier screening with reflex sgNIPT can be priced up to $1,859 per test (or $7,233 if sgNIPT is billed separately); if the cost per 100,000 pregnancies is the unit cost, carrier screening with sgNIPT can be priced up to $1,070 per test (or $2,336 if sgNIPT is billed separately).

CONCLUSION

Using the carrier screen with reflex sgNIPT as first-line screening improves the detection of affected fetuses by 2.4-fold and can save costs for the healthcare system. A real-life experience will be needed to assess the clinical utility and exact cost savings of carrier screen with reflex sgNIPT.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of KTE-X19 CAR T therapy versus real-world standard of care in patients with relapsed/refractory mantle cell lymphoma post BTKi in England

AIMS

The objective of this study is to estimate the cost-effectiveness of KTE-X19 versus standard of care (SoC) in the treatment of patients with relapsed/refractory (R/R) mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) post-Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitor (BTKi) treatment from a UK healthcare perspective.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A three-state partitioned survival model (pre-progression, post-progression and death) with a cycle length of one month was used to extrapolate progression-free and overall survival over a lifetime horizon. Population inputs along with KTE-X19 (brexucabtagene autoleucel) efficacy and safety data were derived from the single-arm trial ZUMA-2 (NCT02601313). The composition of SoC was informed by a literature-based meta-analysis, SoC efficacy data were obtained from the SCHOLAR-2 real-world study. Survival was modelled using standard parametric curves for SoC and a mixture-cure methodology for KTE-X19. It was assumed that patients whose disease had not progressed after five years experienced long-term remission. Costs, resource use and utility, and adverse event disutility inputs were obtained from published literature and publicly available data sources. An annual discount rate of 3.5% was applied to costs and health outcomes. Modelled outcomes for KTE-X19 and SoC included expected life years (LY), quality-adjusted life years (QALY) and total costs. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Estimated median survival was 5.96 years for KTE-X19 and 1.38 for SoC. Discounted LYs, QALYs and lifetime costs were 8.27, 5.99 and £385,765 for KTE-X19 versus 1.98, 1.48 and £79,742 for SoC, respectively. The KTE-X19 versus SoC cost per QALY was £67,713 and the cost per LY was £48,645. Influential scenario analyses use alternative KTE-X19 survival curves and discount rates, and shorter time horizons.

CONCLUSION

Considering the survival and quality of life benefits compared to SoC, KTE-X19 for R/R MCL appears as a cost-effective treatment in the real-world UK setting.

Cost-effectiveness and budget impact analyses of tisagenlecleucel in adult patients with relapsed or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma from Singapore's private insurance payer's perspective

BACKGROUND

Patients experiencing relapsed or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (r/r DLBCL) have limited treatment options and poor prognosis. Tisagenlecleucel (TIS) has shown improved clinical outcomes, but at a high upfront cost. Singapore has a multi-payer healthcare system where private insurance is one of the major payers. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of TIS against salvage chemotherapy regimen (SCR) for treating r/r DLBCL patients who have failed ≥2 lines of systemic therapy from Singapore's private insurance payer's perspective.

METHODS

Over a life-time horizon, a partitioned survival model with three health-states was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of TIS vs. SCR with or without hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). Efficacy inputs for TIS and SCR were based on 43 months of observation data from pooled JULIET and UPenn trials, and CORAL extension studies respectively. Direct costs for pre-treatment, treatment, adverse events, follow-up, subsequent-HSCT, relapse, and terminal care were included. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated as the total incremental costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Additionally, the financial implication of introducing TIS in Singapore from a private payer's perspective was analyzed, comparing the current treatment pathway (without TIS) with a future scenario (with TIS) over 5 years.

RESULTS

Compared with SCR, TIS was the dominant option, with cost savings of S$8,477 alongside an additional gain of 2.78 QALYs in privately insured patients who shifted from private to public hospitals for TIS treatment. Scenario analyses for patients starting in public hospitals show ICERs of S$99,623 (no subsidy) and S$133,261 (50% subsidy for SCR treatment, no subsidy for TIS), supporting the base case. The projected annual budget impact ranges from S$850,000 to S$3.4 million during the first 5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

TIS for treating r/r DLBCL patients who have failed ≥2 lines of systemic therapies, is likely to be cost effective with limited budget impact.

Cost-effectiveness of the cell-based quadrivalent versus the standard egg-based quadrivalent influenza vaccine in Germany

BACKGROUND

Standard influenza vaccines are produced using egg-based manufacturing methods. Through the process, the resulting egg-adapted viral strains may differ from the selected vaccine strain. Cell-derived influenza vaccine manufacturing prevents egg-adaptation of the antigen which can improve vaccine effectiveness. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of quadrivalent cell-derived influenza vaccine (QIVc) versus an egg-based quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIVe) in preventing seasonal influenza from German societal and payer perspectives.

METHODS

Adapted version of the individual-based dynamic 4Flu transmission model was combined with a decision-tree to calculate the impact of QIVc versus QIVe on influenza over 20 seasons in Germany. Egg-adaptation, resulting in lower effectiveness of QIVe versus QIVc towards the H3N2 influenza strain, is sourced from a US retrospective study and assumed in 100% (base case) or 55% (conservative scenario) of years. Influenza-related probabilities of outpatient visits, hospitalizations, productivity loss, and mortality, with associated (dis)utilities/costs, were extracted from literature. Costs and outcomes were discounted 3.0%/year.

RESULTS

Replacing QIVe with QIVc in subjects aged ≥ 9 years can annually prevent 167,265 symptomatic cases, 51,114 outpatient visits, 2,091 hospitalizations, and 103 deaths in Germany. The annual number of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) increased by 1,628 and healthcare costs decreased by €178 M from societal perspective. From payer perspective, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was €2,285 per QALY. Scenario analyses confirmed results robustness.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of QIVc compared to QIVe, in the German Immunization Program, could significantly prevent outpatient visits and hospitalizations and would enable substantial savings from a societal perspective.

A comparison of mixture cure fraction models to traditional parametric survival models in estimation of the cost-effectiveness of nivolumab for relapsed small cell lung cancer

BACKGROUND

In August 2018, the US FDA granted accelerated approval for nivolumab in small cell lung cancer (SCLC) that has progressed after platinum-based chemotherapy and at least one other line of therapy. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of nivolumab vs. usual care as third-line (3 L) therapy for patients with recurrent SCLC (rSCLC) from the health payer perspective. Given the potential for a meaningful fraction of treated patients to achieve long-term response to nivolumab, we also assessed the impact of using mixture cure modeling (MCM) vs. parametric survival modeling on survival estimates and cost-effectiveness from the US Medicare payer perspective.

METHODS

We created a partitioned survival decision model to assess the cost-effectiveness of 3 L nivolumab vs. usual care in rSCLC, based on observed US treatment patterns. Using this approach, we assessed the impact of extrapolating long-term survival from the CheckMate 032 trial, using both MCM and standard parametric curve fits. Nivolumab survival, resource use, and Grade 3/4 adverse event rates were derived from CheckMate 032. Usual care survival, resource use, and costs were derived from an analysis of patients receiving 3 L treatment for rSCLC in the SEER-Medicare registry. We applied 2020 Wholesale Acquisition Cost for drugs and 2020 CMS reimbursement for procedures. Utilities were derived from the literature. We estimated life years (LY), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and costs over a lifetime horizon.

RESULTS

MCM and parametric survival model extrapolations resulted in 0.43 versus 0.38 more LYs, 0.34 versus 0.30 more QALYs, and $69,308 versus $61,336 more expenditure for nivolumab vs. usual care, respectively. The costs per QALY gained using mixture cure versus parametric survival modeling were $204,386 and $207,431, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Mixture cure modeling was equivalent compared to parametric modeling in estimating the cost-effectiveness of nivolumab-based therapy due to the small fraction of patients achieving a long-term response with nivolumab (12.9%).

Cost-effectiveness for KTE-X19 CAR T therapy for adult patients with relapsed/refractory mantle cell lymphoma in the United States

AIMS

The objective of this study is to estimate the cost-effectiveness of KTE-X19 versus standard of care (SoC) in the treatment of relapsed/refractory (R/R) mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) patients from a US healthcare perspective.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A three-state partitioned-survival model (pre-progression, post-progression, and death) with a cycle length of 1 month was used to extrapolate progression-free and overall survival (OS) over a lifetime horizon. Due to the long tail of the OS curve, OS was modeled applying a mixture-cure methodology, using the assumption that patients whose disease had not progressed after 5 years experienced long-term remission. Population inputs were derived from the ZUMA-2 trial. This was also the source of KTE-X19 efficacy and safety data, while this data was obtained from the literature for SoC. Costs and resource use inputs were derived from the published literature and publicly available data sources. Health state utilities were derived from the ZUMA-2 trial (NCT02601313), applying the US tariff. Adverse event disutilities were derived from the published literature. Costs and health outcomes were discounted at 3% per year. The model estimated expected life years (LY), quality-adjusted life years (QALY), and total costs for KTE-X19 vs SoC. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Median survival was 9.71 years for KTE-X19 and 2.13 for SoC. Discounted LYs, QALYs, and lifetime costs were 8.99, 7.39, and $693,832 for KTE-X19 vs 4.47, 3.65, and $574,263 for SoC, respectively. The KTE-X19 vs SoC cost per QALY was $31,985. The most influential model parameter was the utility for patients with long-term remission. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of $150,000 per QALY, the probability that KTE-X19 was cost-effective was 99%.

CONCLUSION

The treatment of R/R MCL with KTE-X19 presents a potentially cost-effective alternative to the current SoC, deriving its value from incremental survival and health-related quality-of-life benefits.

The health economic impact of varying levels of adherence to colorectal screening on providers and payers

AIMS

To examine the impact of increasing multi-target stool DNA test (mt-sDNA [Cologuard]) utilization for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening in cohorts aged 50-75 and 45-75 years old with varying levels of adherence from the perspectives of integrated delivery networks (IDNs) and payers.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We developed a budget impact model that simulates CRC screening with colonoscopy over a 10-year time horizon, fecal immunochemical test (FIT), and mt-sDNA according to the United States Preventive Services Task Force and American Cancer Society guidelines for average risk adults. We evaluated varying levels of screening adherence for a status quo scenario and for an increased mt-sDNA utilization scenario, from the IDN and payer perspectives. The IDN perspective included CRC screening program costs, whereas the payer perspective did not. Conversely, stool-based screening test and bowel preparation costs were unique to the payer perspective.

RESULTS

The increased mt-sDNA scenarios yielded cost savings relative to the status quo under all adherence scenarios due to a decrease in screening and surveillance colonoscopies. For ages 50-75, in high and low adherence scenarios, savings were $19.8 M ($0.16 per-person-per-month (PPPM)) and $33.3 M ($0.28 PPPM) from the IDN perspective. From the payer perspective, savings were $4.2 M ($0.03 PPPM) and $6.7 M ($0.06 PPPM). For ages 45-75, in high and low adherence scenarios, cost savings were $19.3 M ($0.16 PPPM) and $33.0 M ($0.28 PPPM) from the IDN perspective and $3.9 M ($0.03 PPPM) and $6.2 M ($0.05 PPPM) from the payer perspective. In all imperfect adherence scenarios, the degree of cost-savings with increased mt-sDNA utilization correlated with the aggregate decrease in screening and surveillance colonoscopies.

LIMITATIONS

Estimates of real-world adherence levels were based on cross-sectional screening data from the literature, and assumptions were applied to individual screening modalities and screening scenarios.

CONCLUSIONS

Among all adherence scenarios, perspectives, and age ranges, increased mt-sDNA utilization yielded cost-savings.

Cost-effectiveness of fingolimod versus interferon-β1a for the treatment of pediatric-onset multiple sclerosis in Canada

AIMS

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of fingolimod versus interferon (IFN)-β1a at a dose of 30 μg per week for the treatment of relapsing pediatric-onset multiple sclerosis (POMS) in Canada.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A discrete-time Markov model was developed to compare fingolimod with IFN β-1a over a time horizon of two years representing patients followed up to mean age of 18 years from a Canadian health care system perspective. Twenty-one health states based on the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) were considered: EDSS 0‒9 for relapsing multiple sclerosis (MS), EDSS 0‒9 for secondary progressive MS, and "Death." Relative treatment efficacy for fingolimod versus IFN-β1a was estimated from the PARADIGMS study. Costs and resource use were obtained from published literature and Canadian sources. Utilities were estimated by mapping the Pediatric Quality of Life inventory data onto the Child Health Utility Index-9 Dimension using a published mapping algorithm. Future costs and benefits were discounted at 1.5% per annum.

RESULTS

Compared with IFN β-1a, fingolimod led to an increase in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (0.125) with incremental costs (Canadian dollars [CAD] 2,977) and to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of CAD 23,886/QALY over a time horizon of two years representing patients followed up to mean age of 18 years. The monetary benefits of fingolimod treatment versus IFN β-1a at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of CAD 50,000 per QALY gained were higher than the costs. One-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) both confirmed the robustness of the results.

LIMITATIONS

The main limitations of this analysis primarily stem from the limited data availability in POMS.

CONCLUSIONS

Fingolimod is cost effective compared with IFN β-1a for the treatment of POMS over a time horizon of two years representing patients followed up to a mean age of 18 years in Canada.

A US cost-minimization model comparing ravulizumab versus eculizumab for the treatment of atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome

AIMS

Ravulizumab, engineered from eculizumab, provides sustained C5 inhibition in atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome (aHUS) while reducing dosing frequency (every 8 vs 2 weeks, respectively). Treatment choice often carries significant financial implications. This study compared the economic consequences of ravulizumab and eculizumab for treating aHUS.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A cost-minimization model compared direct medical costs for ravulizumab and eculizumab in treating aHUS, assuming equivalent efficacy and safety, and took a US payer perspective, a lifetime horizon, and a 3.0% cost discount rate. The base case modeled adult and pediatric treatment-naïve populations, with characteristics based on clinical trials, and treatment patterns (duration, discontinuation, re-initiation) derived from eculizumab studies with long-term follow-up. Treatment costs (2019 US$) were based on wholesale drug acquisition costs, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid fee schedules, and published disease management studies. Sensitivity analyses were conducted by adjusting relevant variables.

RESULTS

Ravulizumab provided lifetime per-patient cost reductions (discounted) of 32.4% and 35.5% vs eculizumab in adult and pediatric base cases, respectively. Total costs for ravulizumab vs eculizumab were $12,148,748 and $17,979,007, respectively, for adults, and $11,587,832 and $17,959,814, respectively, for children. Pre-discontinuation treatment contributed the largest proportion of total costs for ravulizumab (94.8% and 88.0%) and eculizumab (94.8% and 87.8%) in adults and children, respectively. Across sensitivity analyses, ravulizumab provided cost reductions vs eculizumab.

LIMITATIONS

The model included several typical assumptions. Base case patients with more severe stages of chronic kidney disease were assumed not to discontinue treatment, nor to experience an excess mortality risk in either treatment arm, which may not reflect real-world clinical observations. Additionally, rebates and discounts on medication acquisition or administration were not considered.

CONCLUSIONS

In US patients with aHUS, ravulizumab provided cost reductions of 32.4-35.5% vs eculizumab, with a reduced dosing frequency for ravulizumab. The magnitude of reductions was consistent across sensitivity analyses.

A cost-utility analysis of SIR-Spheres Y-90 resin microspheres versus best supportive care in the treatment of unresectable metastatic colorectal cancer refractory to chemotherapy in the UK

BACKGROUND

Limited treatment options are available in chemotherapy-refractory or -intolerant metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). The objective of the present analysis was to evaluate the cost-utility of SIR-Spheres Y-90 resin microspheres relative to best supportive care (BSC) in the treatment of chemotherapy refractory mCRC from the perspective of the UK national healthcare payer.

METHODS

A cost-utility model was developed in Microsoft Excel to simulate transitions from progression-free survival to post-progression survival and death in patients with mCRC. Unit costs were captured in 2019 pounds sterling (GBP) based on the literature, formulary listings, and National Health Service (NHS) England reference costs. Future costs and effects were discounted at 3.5% per annum. A series of one-way sensitivity analyses, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) were conducted.

RESULTS

The base case analysis showed that SIR-Spheres Y-90 resin microspheres would result in an increase in discounted quality-adjusted life years gained from 0.69 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) to 1.50 QALYs, with an associated increase in cost from GBP 15,268 to GBP 34,168 yielding an incremental cost-utility ratio of GBP 23,435 per QALY. PSA showed that there would be a 56% likelihood that SIR-Spheres Y-90 resin microspheres would be cost-effective relative to BSC at a willingness-to-pay threshold of GBP 30,000 per QALY gained.

CONCLUSIONS

This cost-utility analysis showed that, relative to BSC, SIR-Spheres Y-90 resin microspheres would be a cost-effective treatment option for patients with mCRC in the UK setting from the national healthcare payer perspective.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of the SP142 versus 22C3 PD-L1 assays in the treatment of atezolizumab plus nab-paclitaxel for patients with advanced triple negative breast cancer in the Brazilian private healthcare system

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study was to demonstrate the clinical and economic impact of two PD-L1 IHC assays, SP142 versus 22C3, to identify the eligibility of the patients with advanced triple negative breast cancer (aTNBC) to the treatment with atezolizumab plus nab-paclitaxel in the Brazilian private healthcare system (BPHS).

METHODS

The study performed a cost-effectiveness analysis based on a partitioned-survival model with three mutually exclusive health states: progression-free (PF), progression, and death. Data of progression-free survival and overall survival were extracted from a retrospective exploratory analysis of IMpassion130, an analytical harmonization of PD-L1 IHC assays. The analyses included only direct costs (drug acquisition and management of adverse events) that were based on CBHPM (Classificação Brasileira Hierarquizada de Procedimentos Médicos) and CMED PF18% (Câmara de Regulação do Mercado de Medicamentos) tables. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed as a second-order Monte Carlo Simulation in order to evaluate the uncertainties of the model.

RESULTS

The SP142 assay has the potential to improve PFS and generate savings to the BPHS. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was -USD 4,119.43 per month of progression-free survival.

CONCLUSIONS

The SP142 assay demonstrated to be a dominant alternative compared to 22C3 to guide the treatment with atezolizumab plus nab-paclitaxel in patients with aTNBC.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of treatment regimens with obinutuzumab plus chemotherapy in Japan for untreated follicular lymphoma patients

AIMS

Obinutuzumab (GA101; G) is a new treatment for follicular lymphoma (FL) that is anticipated to have greater efficacy than the current treatment, rituximab (R). The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of G plus chemotherapy (G + Chemo) against that of R plus chemotherapy (R + Chemo) for patients in Japan with previously untreated FL.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We localized a previously reported cost-effectiveness model using the Japanese cost data. For estimating costs adapted in the model, FL patients treated with R were identified from Japanese hospital-based claims database and classified into three treatment regimen groups according to chemotherapies used with R: CHOP, CVP, and bendamustine (B). Based on services per patient and cost items, parameters determining the cost amounts were derived using a multivariate generalized linear mixed model to estimate the direct medical costs for each treatment regimen group for G and R. For the utility, same values in the previous model were used. Lifetime cost and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) were estimated under the payer's perspective.

RESULTS

The calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) in million JPY per QALY for G-CHOP vs. R-CHOP, G-CVP vs. R-CVP, and G-B vs. R-B were 5.4, 4.3, and 4.8, respectively. ICERs were lower than 7.5 million JPY per QALY, which is the cost-effectiveness threshold for cancer treatments, and showed that G + Chemo is a cost-effective treatment regimen for Japanese patients with previously untreated FL. Lifetime direct medical costs were lowest in the R-B group because hospitalization costs that accounted for most of the total cost were lowest in this group. Limitations and conclusions: The cost-effectiveness of G + Chemo is acceptable in Japan. Differences in the direct medical costs among treatment regimen groups were mostly due to hospitalization costs. This is probably because many Japanese hematologists choose inpatient treatments over outpatient treatments in CHOP-based induction therapy.

The cost effectiveness of pembrolizumab versus chemotherapy or atezolizumab as second-line therapy for advanced urothelial carcinoma in the United States

Aims: Pembrolizumab demonstrated significantly prolonged overall survival (OS) vs. chemotherapy in the Phase III KEYNOTE-045 trial, and is approved in the US for the treatment of patients with locally advanced or metastatic urothelial carcinoma (mUC) who progressed after platinum-based chemotherapy. Using longer follow-up and individual patient-data from KEYNOTE-045, this study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of pembrolizumab vs. chemotherapy or atezolizumab from a US payer perspective.Materials and methods: A partitioned-survival model was developed over a 20-year time horizon. Progression-free survival (PFS) and OS for pembrolizumab and chemotherapy were extrapolated using a piecewise modelling approach, where patient-level data from KEYNOTE-045 were used for the initial period followed by parametric distributions. OS of atezolizumab was estimated by indirect treatment comparisons based on KEYNOTE-045 and IMvigor211. Different scenarios were explored in the absence of indirect comparisons on PFS and time-on-treatment (ToT) between pembrolizumab and atezolizumab. Drug acquisition/administration, disease management, adverse events, and terminal care costs were considered.Results: Compared with chemotherapy, pembrolizumab resulted in a mean gain of 1.33 life-years and 1.14 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and an incremental cost of $106,299, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $93,481/QALY gained. Pembrolizumab dominated atezolizumab in extending patients' life by 0.89 years and 0.76 QALYs, while reducing costs by $26,458. Key drivers of cost-effectiveness included survival extrapolation, OS hazard ratio of pembrolizumab vs. atezolizumab, and time horizon. Pembrolizumab had a 66% and 100% probability of being cost-effective vs. chemotherapy and atezolizumab, respectively, at a $100,000 willingness-to-pay threshold.Limitations and conclusions: Uncertainties remain with extrapolated PFS and OS for pembrolizumab, OS indirect comparison, and ToT for atezolizumab. Despite these limitations, the model used robust methods to estimate key clinical endpoints with patient-level data from longer follow-up of KEYNOTE-045. Pembrolizumab dominates atezolizumab and is very likely cost-effective vs. chemotherapy in 2 L mUC at a $100,000 willingness-to-pay threshold.

A mapping study in mainland China: predicting EQ-5D-5L utility scores from the psoriasis disability index

Aims: This study aims to develop a mapping algorithm that can be used to predict 5-level EQ-5D (EQ-5D-5L) utility scores from the Psoriasis Disability Index (PDI) for further use in cost-utility analysis among psoriasis patients.Materials and Methods: A total of 321 participants with psoriasis was recruited in a dermatology clinic from a tertiary hospital in China. The EQ-5D-5L utility scores were scored using the Chinese-specific value set. Three model specifications were used and each one was estimated using three different statistical techniques, including the ordinary least squares (OLS), the Tobit regression and the generalized linear model (GLM). The goodness-of-fit of mapping performance was estimated by using two common indicators: the mean absolute error (MAE) and the mean square error (MSE).Results: A final validated sample of 321 psoriasis patients was analyzed in the study. The patients had a mean ± standard deviation (SD) age of 39.7 ± 12.9 years, and the EQ-5D-5L state utility score is 0.899 ± 0.106. Among all the models considered, the OLS linear model based on the four PDI item scores was selected as the best model due to higher accuracy (MAE = 0.1334 and 0.1557 for the estimation and validation sample separately).Limitations: The main limitation of this study is that the survey site was limited to one hospital and not more broadly representing the whole of China. Additionally, there are some missing data in the full sample and an absence of an external dataset to validate the algorithms.Conclusions: The mapping algorithms reported in this paper can be used to predict the EQ-5D-5L utilities from the PDI; however, similar to other mapping studies in the literature it can only serve as the second-best approach to elicit utilities from disease-specific instruments.

A cost analysis of SIR-Spheres yttrium-90 resin microspheres versus tyrosine kinase inhibitors in the treatment of unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma in France, Italy, Spain and the UK

Background and aims: A wide range of treatment options are available for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), including systemic treatment with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) such as sorafenib and lenvatinib, immunotherapies, locoregional therapies such as selective internal radiation therapy (SIRT) and treatments with curative intent such as resection, radiofrequency ablation and liver transplantation. Given the substantial economic burden associated with HCC treatment, the aim of the present analysis was to establish the cost of using SIRT with SIR-Spheres yttrium-90 (Y-90) resin microspheres versus TKIs from healthcare payer perspectives in France, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom (UK).Methods: A cost model was developed to capture the costs of initial systemic treatment with sorafenib (95%) or lenvatinib (5%) versus SIRT in patients with HCC in Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stages B and C. A nested Markov model was utilized to model transitions between progression-free survival (PFS), progression and death, in addition to transitions between subsequent treatment lines. Cost and resource use data were identified from published sources in each of the four countries.Results: Relative to TKIs, SIRT with SIR-Spheres Y-90 resin microspheres were found to be cost saving in all four country settings, with the additional costs of the microspheres and the SIRT procedure being more than offset by reductions in drug and drug administration costs, and treatment of adverse events. Across the four country settings, total cost savings with SIR-Spheres Y-90 resin microspheres fell within the range 5.4-24.9% and SIRT resulted in more patients ultimately receiving treatments with curative intent (4.6 vs. 1.4% of eligible patients).Conclusion: SIR-Spheres Y-90 resin microspheres resulted in cost savings relative to TKIs in the treatment of unresectable HCC in all four country settings, while increasing the proportion of patients who become eligible for treatments with curative intent.

Cost effectiveness and impact on quality of life of abobotulinumtoxinA and onabotulinumtoxinA in the treatment of children with lower limb spasticity in Canada

Background: Injectable botulinum neurotoxins are a mainstay of treatment for pediatric spasticity. AbobotulinumtoxinA and onabotulinumtoxinA are both injectable toxin therapies used to treat pediatric lower limb (PLL) spasticity in Canada. The objective of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of abobotulinumtoxinA vs. onabotulinumtoxinA in the treatment of PLL spasticity in Canada.Methods: A probabilistic Markov cohort model with a 2-year time horizon was developed, with health states defined by response to therapy, as characterized by the goal attainment scale (GAS). Based on randomized controlled trial evidence, response to therapy was similar or higher for abobotulinumtoxinA relative to onabotulinumtoxinA; uncertainty was incorporated into model parameters, however, as the two therapies have not been compared head-to-head. Canadian resource use and cost data were incorporated.Results: In the base case, abobotulinumtoxinA generated 1.48 quality-adjusted life years over the model time horizon, compared to 1.47 for onabotulinumtoxinA. AbobotulinumtoxinA was associated with cost savings of $123 CAD, reflecting lower costs in both medication acquisition and health services. The estimated improvement to quality of life and reduced costs result in an estimate of economic dominance for abobotulinumtoxinA over onabotulinumtoxinA. This dominant result persisted across probabilistic and scenario analyses.Key points for decision makersBased on a review of available clinical evidence, abobotulinumtoxinA was found to have significant and/or numerical efficacy benefits to onabotulinumtoxinA on functional outcomes (Goal Attainment Scale) and tone (Modified Ashworth Scale) and in the treatment of pediatric lower limb spasticityIn this cost-effectiveness analysis, abobotulinumtoxinA was found to be associated with greater quality-adjusted life years and lower costs than onabotulinumtoxinA (economically dominant)A limitation of this analysis was the uncertainty around key parameters. Specifically, the lack of head-to-head comparison data for the two therapies, and variable data regarding likely onabotulinumtoxinA dosing in PLL in clinical practice. However, across a range of plausible scenarios, the economic dominant result remained.

Projecting total costs and health consequences of increasing mt-sDNA utilization for colorectal cancer screening from the payer and integrated delivery network perspectives

Aims: To evaluate total costs and health consequences of a colorectal cancer (CRC) screening program with colonoscopy, fecal immunochemical tests (FIT), and expanded use of multitarget stool DNA (mt-sDNA) from the perspectives of Integrated Delivery Networks (IDNs) and payers in the United States.Materials and methods: We developed a budget impact and cost-consequence model that simulates CRC screening for eligible 50- to 75-year-old adults. A status quo scenario and an increased mt-sDNA scenario were modeled. The status quo includes the current screening mix of colonoscopy (83%), FIT (11%), and mt-sDNA (6%) modalities. The increased mt-sDNA scenario increases mt-sDNA utilization to 28% over 10 years. Costs for both the IDN and the payer perspectives incorporated diagnostic and surveillance colonoscopies, adverse events (AEs), and CRC treatment. The IDN perspective included screening program costs, composed of direct nonmedical (e.g. patient navigation) and indirect (e.g. administration) costs. It was assumed that IDNs do not incur the costs for stool-based screening tests or bowel preparation for colonoscopies.Results: In a population of one million covered lives, the 10-year incremental cost savings incurred by increasing mt-sDNA utilization was $16.2 M for the IDN and $3.3 M for the payer. The incremental savings per-person-per-month were $0.14 and $0.03 for the IDN and payer, respectively. For both perspectives, increased diagnostic colonoscopy costs were offset by reductions in screening colonoscopies, surveillance colonoscopies, and AEs. Extending screening eligibility to 45- to 75-year-olds slightly decreased the overall cost savings.Limitations: The natural history of CRC was not simulated; however, many of the utilized parameters were extracted from highly vetted natural history models or published literature. Direct nonmedical and indirect costs for CRC screening programs are applied on a per-person-per modality basis, whereas in reality some of these costs may be fixed.Conclusions: Increased mt-sDNA utilization leads to fewer colonoscopies, less AEs, and lower overall costs for both IDNs and payers, reducing overall screening program costs and increasing the number of cancers detected while maintaining screening adherence rates over 10 years.

Cost-effectiveness of targeted screening for the identification of patients with atrial fibrillation: evaluation of a machine learning risk prediction algorithm

Aims: As many cases of atrial fibrillation (AF) are asymptomatic, patients often remain undiagnosed until complications (e.g. stroke) manifest. Risk-prediction algorithms may help to efficiently identify people with undiagnosed AF. However, the cost-effectiveness of targeted screening remains uncertain. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of targeted screening, informed by a machine learning (ML) risk prediction algorithm, to identify patients with AF.Methods: Cost-effectiveness analyses were undertaken utilizing a hybrid screening decision tree and Markov disease progression model. Costs and outcomes associated with the detection of AF compared traditional systematic and opportunistic AF screening strategies to targeted screening informed by a ML risk prediction algorithm. Model analyses were based on adults ≥50 years and adopted the UK NHS perspective.Results: Targeted screening using the ML risk prediction algorithm required fewer patients to be screened (61 per 1,000 patients, compared to 534 and 687 patients in the systematic and opportunistic strategies) and detected more AF cases (11 per 1,000 patients, compared to 6 and 8 AF cases in the systematic and opportunistic screening strategies). The targeted approach demonstrated cost-effectiveness under base case settings (cost per QALY gained of £4,847 and £5,544 against systematic and opportunistic screening respectively). The targeted screening strategy was predicted to provide an additional 3.40 and 2.05 QALYs per 1,000 patients screened versus systematic and opportunistic strategies. The targeted screening strategy remained cost-effective in all scenarios evaluated.Limitations: The analysis relied on assumptions that include the extended period of patient life span and the lack of consideration for treatment discontinuations/switching, as well as the assumption that the ML risk-prediction algorithm will identify asymptomatic AF.Conclusions: Targeted screening using a ML risk prediction algorithm has the potential to enhance the clinical and cost-effectiveness of AF screening, improving health outcomes through efficient use of limited healthcare resources.

Economic impact model of delayed inhibitor development in patients with hemophilia a receiving emicizumab for the prevention of bleeding events

Aims: Cumulative exogenous factor VIII (FVIII) exposure is an important predictor of developing neutralizing antibodies (inhibitors) to FVIII in patients with persons with hemophilia A (PwHA). The aim of this study was to model the costs of emicizumab versus FVIII prophylaxis and total treatment costs for patients with severe HA.Materials and Methods: An Excel-based decision model was developed to calculate cumulative costs in PwHA over a 20-year time horizon from the US payer perspective. The model considered persons with severe HA beginning at age 12 months with no prior FVIII exposure and initiating prophylaxis with emicizumab or FVIII. PwHA could develop inhibitors on accumulation of 20 FVIII exposure days. PwHA with inhibitors replaced FVIII with bypassing agents until inhibitors resolved spontaneously, following immune tolerance induction (ITI), or at the end of the time horizon. The primary model outcome was the difference in emicizumab versus FVIII treatment costs in 2019 USD. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test the robustness of results.Results: Total incremental cost over 20 years was -$1,945,480 (emicizumab arm, $4,919,058; FVIII arm, $6,864,538). Prophylaxis costs (emicizumab arm, $4,096,105; FVIII arm, $6,290,919) comprised the majority of costs in both groups, followed by breakthrough bleed treatment for the FVIII arm ($342,652) and ITI costs for the emicizumab arm ($733,671). Higher costs in the FVIII group reflected earlier inhibitor development (FVIII, 4 months; emicizumab, 162 months) and switch to bypassing agents.Limitations: The model design reflects a simplified treatment pathway for patients with severe HA who initiate FVIII or emicizumab prophylaxis. In the absence of clinical data, a key conservative assumption of the model is that patients receiving emicizumab and FVIII prophylaxis have the same risk of developing inhibitors.Conclusions: This study suggests that prophylaxis with emicizumab results in cost savings compared to FVIII prophylaxis in HA.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of rasburicase over standard of care for the prevention and treatment of tumor lysis syndrome in children with hematologic malignancies in China

Aims: To conduct a lifetime cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of rasburicase compared with standard of care (SOC) for tumor lysis syndrome (TLS) in children with hematologic malignancies from the Chinese healthcare system perspective. Materials and methods: The CEA was performed using a decision tree model with a lifetime horizon. The model explores the cost-effectiveness of rasburicase vs SOC for both preventing TLS and treating established TLS among pediatric patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML), acute lymphoid leukemia (ALL), and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL). Both the prophylaxis-use model and treatment-use model incorporate long-term health states of the diseases: survival without TLS and death. The efficacy data of rasburicase and SOC were obtained from published literature. Drug costs, healthcare resource utilization (HRU), and adverse event (AE) management costs were obtained via a published study with clinical experts. Costs in US dollar and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) are reported, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were also calculated. Uncertainties due to parameter fluctuations in the model were assessed through one-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). Results: During TLS prevention, compared with SOC, the ICER of rasburicase treatment in China are $17,580.04/QALY, $5,783.45/QALY, and $5,391.00/QALY for pediatric patients with AML, ALL, and NHL, respectively. For the established TLS treatment, compared with SOC, the ICERs of rasburicase treatment are $2,031.18/QALY, $1,142.93/QALY, and $990.37/QALY for pediatric patients with AML, ALL, and NHL, respectively. Limitations: The clinical data for SOC are based on the published study in China, and the rasburicase prevention or treatment failure rate was either calculated based on the risk ratio or directly from the clinical study among non-Chinese pediatric patients. Another study limitation was the lack of utility data for pediatric patients with TLS and without TLS. Thus, the utility scores of pediatric cancer survivors were used as an alternative. Conclusion: Rasburicase is estimated to be a cost-effective alternative to SOC in the prevention and treatment of TLS among Chinese pediatric patients with AML, ALL, and NHL.

Cohort versus patient level simulation for the economic evaluation of single versus combination immuno-oncology therapies in metastatic melanoma

Background: Model structure, despite being a key source of uncertainty in economic evaluations, is often not treated as a priority for model development. In oncology, partitioned survival models (PSMs) and Markov models, both types of cohort model, are commonly used, but patient responses to newer immuno-oncology (I-O) agents suggest that more innovative model frameworks should be explored. Objective: A discussion of the theoretical pros and cons of cohort level vs patient level simulation (PLS) models provides the background for an illustrative comparison of I-O therapies, namely nivolumab/ipilimumab combination and ipilimumab alone using patient level data from the CheckMate 067 trial in metastatic melanoma. PSM, Markov, and PLS models were compared on the basis of coherence with short-term clinical trial endpoints and long-term cost per QALY outcomes reported. Methods: The PSM was based on Kaplan-Meier curves from CheckMate 067 with 3-year data on progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). The Markov model used time independent transition probabilities based on the average trajectory of PFS and OS over the trial period. The PLS model was developed based on baseline characteristics hypothesized to be associated with disease as well as significant mortality and disease progression risk factors identified through a proportional hazards model. Results: The short-term Markov model outputs matched the 1-3 year clinical trial results approximately as well as the PSMs for OS but not PFS. The fixed (average) cohort PLS results corresponded as well as the PSMs for OS in the combination therapy arm and PFS in the monotherapy arm. Over the lifetime horizon, the PLS produced an additional 5.95 quality adjusted life years (QALYs) associated with combination therapy relative to ipilimumab alone, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £6,474 per QALY, compared with £14,194 for the PSMs which gave an incremental benefit of between 2.2 and 2.4 QALYs. The Markov model was an outlier (∼ £49,000 per QALY in the base case). Conclusions: The 4- and 5-state versions of the PSM cohort model estimated in this study deviate from the standard 3-state approach to better capture I-O response patterns. Markov and PLS approaches, by modeling state transitions explicitly, could be more informative in understanding I-O immune response, the PLS particularly so by reflecting heterogeneity in treatment response. However, both require a number of assumptions to capture the immune response effectively. Better I-O representation with surrogate endpoints in future clinical trials could yield greater model validity across all models.

Cost-effectiveness of sorafenib versus best supportive care in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma in Egypt

BACKGROUND

In light of constrained budgets and the need to fund efficient treatment options, this study set out to assess the cost-effectiveness of sorafenib as a first-line treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) compared to best supportive care (BSC) from the military hospital perspective in Egypt.

METHODS

A decision analytic Markov model simulated disease progression with clinical parameters and utility values derived from published data. Data on direct medical costs were collected from the local healthcare system or payer. Costs and effects were discounted at 3.5% annually and reported in USD using purchasing power parity adjustments. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

Mortality occurred less frequently in the sorafenib group (sorafenib group: 99.96%, BSC group: 99.99%). The total quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of the sorafenib cohort were estimated to be 46.24 compared with 42.27 for the BSC cohort, which resulted in an incremental gain of 3.96 QALYs. The total costs for the sorafenib and BSC cohorts were USD 4,229,940 and USD 3,092,886, respectively (incremental cost = $1,137,054), resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of USD 286,776 per QALY gained for the sorafenib cohort. One-way sensitivity analyses that addressed the uncertainty of the BSC estimates indicated that the progression-free survival for BSC and utility value of progression had the greatest effects on the results.

CONCLUSION

This study concluded that sorafenib does offer increased survival and quality-of-life at an increased cost but at an ICER that exceeds the nationally accepted cost-effectiveness threshold. The findings support healthcare decision-making of the efficient allocation of healthcare system resources to improve the health of the Egyptian population. Whether sorafenib is cost-effective in specific sub-groups with additional risk factors needs to be addressed in future studies.

Cost-effectiveness of alemtuzumab and natalizumab for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis treatment in Iran: decision analysis based on an indirect comparison

BACKGROUND

Alemtuzumab and natalizumab are approved as second-line therapies for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) patients in Iran who have shown an inadequate response to other disease-modifying therapy (DMT). In the absence of head-to-head trials, evaluations based on decision analytic modeling may be a suitable alternative to compare alemtuzumab and natalizumab in RRMS.

PURPOSE

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of alemtuzumab compared with natalizumab in RRMS in Iran, based on an indirect comparison of clinical trial data.

METHODS

A cost-utility analysis was conducted using a cohort-based Markov model to analyze cost-utility in a cohort of 1,000 RRMS patients treated with alemtuzumab or natalizumab who had failed at least one previous DMT. Costs were measured in 2018 US Dollars, and were estimated from both the societal and National Healthcare Service (NHS) perspective over a 20-year time horizon in Iran. One-way deterministic sensitivity analyses were carried out to investigate the impact of individual variables on model results.

RESULTS

Alemtuzumab dominated natalizumab in both NHS and societal perspective analyses. From the NHS perspective, the total discounted costs per patient were estimated at $147,417 and $150,579 for alemtuzumab and natalizumab, respectively, over 20 years. The discounted quality-adjusted life years were estimated to be 7.07 and 6.05, respectively. Results were similar for the societal perspective analysis. Results were most sensitive to acquisition costs and the time horizon, while no sensitivity was observed for Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) health-states utility, relapse relative risk, adverse event or EDSS-related costs, and laboratory/monitoring costs.

CONCLUSION

Alemtuzumab was dominant in the treatment of RRMS compared with natalizumab due to lower total cost, greater efficacy and slowing of disease progression, and lower rate of relapses over a 20-year time horizon in Iran. Comparative head-to-head trials and long-term follow-up are needed to confirm these results.

Budesonide with multi-matrix technology as second-line treatment for ulcerative colitis: evaluation of long-term cost-effectiveness in the Netherlands

AIMS

Budesonide with multi-matrix technology (MMX) is an oral corticosteroid, shown to have high topical activity against ulcerative colitis (UC) while maintaining low systemic bioavailability with few adverse events. The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of budesonide MMX versus commonly used corticosteroids, in the second-line treatment of active mild-to-moderate UC in the Netherlands.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

An eight-state Markov model with an 8 week cycle length captured remission, four distinct therapy stages, hospitalization, possible colectomy and mortality. Remission probability for budesonide MMX was based on the CORE-II study. Population characteristics were derived from the Dutch Inflammatory Bowel Disease South Limburg cohort (n = 598) and included patients with proctitis (39%), left-sided (42%) and extensive disease (19%). Comparators (topical budesonide foam and enema, oral budesonide and prednisolone) were selected based on current Dutch clinical practice. Treatment effects were evaluated by network meta-analysis using a Bayesian framework. Cost-effectiveness analysis was performed over a 5 year time horizon from a societal perspective, with costs, health-state and adverse event utilities derived from published sources. Outcomes were weighted by disease extent distribution and corresponding comparators.

RESULTS

Budesonide MMX was associated with comparable quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gain versus foam and oral formulations (+0.01 QALYs) in the total UC population, whilst being cost-saving (EUR 366 per patient). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis evaluated an 86.6% probability of budesonide MMX being dominant (cost-saving with QALY gain) versus these comparators. Exploratory analysis showed similar findings versus prednisolone.

LIMITATIONS

Differing definitions of trial end-points and remission across trials meant indirect comparison was not ideal. However, in the absence of head-to-head clinical data, these comparisons are reasonable alternatives and currently offer the only comparison of second-line UC treatments.

CONCLUSIONS

In the present analysis, budesonide MMX was shown to be cost-effective versus comparators in the total UC population, for the second-line treatment of active mild-to-moderate UC in the Netherlands.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of sequential biologic therapy with ixekizumab versus secukinumab as first-line treatment of moderate-to-severe psoriasis in the UK

AIMS

Patients with psoriasis often undergo treatment with a sequence of biologic agents because of poor/loss of response to initial therapy. With the availability of newer agents like ixekizumab and secukinumab, there is a need for cost-effectiveness analyses to better reflect current clinical practice. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of a sequence of biologic therapies containing first-line ixekizumab vs first-line secukinumab in patients with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis in the UK.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A Markov model with a lifetime horizon was developed to compare the cost-effectiveness of ixekizumab and secukinumab treatment sequences: ixekizumab → ustekinumab → infliximab → best supportive care (BSC) vs secukinumab → ustekinumab → infliximab → BSC. The model used monthly cycles, and included four health states: trial period, treatment maintenance, BSC, and death. At the end of the trial period, responders transitioned to maintenance therapy; non-responders transitioned to the next biologic in the sequence. An annual discontinuation rate of 20% was assumed for maintenance therapy.

RESULTS

The ixekizumab sequence provided cost savings of £898 (£176,203 vs 177,101) [year 2015 values] and gained 0.03 more quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs: 1.45 vs 1.42) vs the secukinumab sequence over the lifetime horizon. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed an 89.8% likelihood that the ixekizumab sequence would be cost-effective at a threshold of £20,000 per QALY gained.

LIMITATIONS

The analysis used list prices for drugs rather than confidential, preferentially priced Patient Access Scheme costs. In addition, efficacy input data were based on a network meta-analysis, as there were no head-to-head trials comparing ixekizumab and secukinumab.

CONCLUSION

First-line treatment with ixekizumab as part of a specific sequential biologic therapy for moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis in the UK provided slight advantages in cost savings and QALYs gained over a similar treatment sequence initiated with secukinumab. In view of the small magnitude of these differences, factors such as patient preferences (e.g. for number of injections) and long-term safety (e.g. related to time on the market) may also be important for clinical decision-making.

Putting the Patient in Patient Reported Outcomes: A Robust Methodology for Health Outcomes Assessment

When analyzing many health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) outcomes, statistical inference is often based on the summary score formed by combining the individual domains of the HRQoL profile into a single measure. Through a series of Monte Carlo simulations, this paper illustrates that reliance solely on the summary score may lead to biased estimates of incremental effects, and I propose a novel two-stage approach that allows for unbiased estimation of incremental effects. The proposed methodology essentially reverses the order of the analysis, from one of 'aggregate, then estimate' to one of 'estimate, then aggregate'. Compared to relying solely on the summary score, the approach also offers a more patient-centered interpretation of results by estimating regression coefficients and incremental effects in each of the HRQoL domains, while still providing estimated effects in terms of the overall summary score. I provide an application to the estimation of incremental effects of demographic and clinical variables on HRQoL following surgical treatment for adult scoliosis and spinal deformity.

The effectiveness-efficiency trade-off in health care: The case of hospitals in Lombardy, Italy

We study the presence and the magnitudes of trade-offs between health outcomes and hospitals' efficiency using a data set from Lombardy, Italy, for the period 2008-2011. Our goal is to analyze whether the pressures for cost containment may affect hospital performance in terms of population health status. Unlike previous work in this area, we analyze hospitals at the ward level so comparisons can be made across more homogeneous treatments. We focus on two different health outcomes: mortality and readmission rates. We find that there is a trade-off between mortality rates and efficiency, as more efficient hospitals have higher mortality rates. We also find, however, that more efficient hospitals have lower readmission rates. Moreover, we show that focusing the analysis at the ward level is essential, since there is evidence of higher mortality rates in general medicine and surgery, while in oncology mortality is lower in more efficient hospitals. Furthermore, we find that consideration of spatial processes is important since mortality rates are higher for hospitals subject to high degree of horizontal competition, but lower for those hospitals having strong competition but high efficiency. This implies that the interplay of efficient resource allocation and hospital competition is important for the sustainability and effectiveness of regional health care systems.

'Behold, a virgin is with HIV!' misreporting sexual behavior among infected adolescents

In four Southern African countries where the HIV prevalence rate is among the highest in the world, 46.4% of a sample of female adolescents infected with HIV report having never engaged in sex. This would indicate either the dominance of non-sexual modes of HIV transmission or rampant misreporting of sexual behavior in the sample. We propose a method to estimate the extent of misreporting and calculate that the true percentages of virgins among the sample of HIV-infected adolescent women is 32.1%. After accounting for misreporting, the contribution of sexual modes of HIV transmission is projected as 50.4%, compared with an estimate of 35.5% if we assume no misreporting.