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Seamon E, Ridenhour BJ, Miller CR, Johnson-Leung J. Spatial Modeling of Sociodemographic Risk for COVID-19 Mortality. medRxiv 2024:2023.07.21.23292785. [PMID: 37546990 PMCID: PMC10402221 DOI: 10.1101/2023.07.21.23292785] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/08/2023]
Abstract
In early 2020, the Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) rapidly spread across the United States (US), exhibiting significant geographic variability. While several studies have examined the predictive relationships of differing factors on COVID-19 deaths, few have looked at spatiotemporal variation at refined geographic scales. The objective of this analysis is to examine this spatiotemporal variation in COVID-19 deaths with respect to association with socioeconomic, health, demographic, and political factors. We use multivariate regression applied to Health and Human Services (HHS) regions as well as nationwide county-level geographically weighted random forest (GWRF) models. Analyses were performed on data from three separate time frames which correspond to the spread of distinct viral variants in the US: pandemic onset until May 2021, May 2021 through November 2021, and December 2021 until April 2022. Multivariate regression results for all regions across three time windows suggest that existing measures of social vulnerability for disaster preparedness (SVI) are predictive of a higher degree of mortality from COVID-19. In comparison, GWRF models provide a more robust evaluation of feature importance and prediction, exposing the value of local features for prediction, such as obesity, which is obscured by coarse-grained analysis. Overall, GWRF results indicate that this more nuanced modeling strategy is useful for determining the spatial variation in the importance of sociodemographic risk factors for predicting COVID-19 mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Erich Seamon
- University of Idaho, Institute for Modeling, Collaboration, and Innovation, Moscow, 83843, USA
| | - Benjamin J. Ridenhour
- University of Idaho, Institute for Modeling, Collaboration, and Innovation, Moscow, 83843, USA
- University of Idaho, Department of Mathematics and Statistical Science, Moscow, 83843, USA
| | - Craig R. Miller
- University of Idaho, Institute for Modeling, Collaboration, and Innovation, Moscow, 83843, USA
- University of Idaho, Department of Biological Sciences, Moscow, 83843, USA
| | - Jennifer Johnson-Leung
- University of Idaho, Institute for Modeling, Collaboration, and Innovation, Moscow, 83843, USA
- University of Idaho, Department of Mathematics and Statistical Science, Moscow, 83843, USA
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Molenberghs G, Faes C, Verbeeck J, Deboosere P, Abrams S, Willem L, Aerts J, Theeten H, Devleesschauwer B, Bustos Sierra N, Renard F, Herzog S, Lusyne P, Van der Heyden J, Van Oyen H, Van Damme P, Hens N. COVID-19 mortality, excess mortality, deaths per million and infection fatality ratio, Belgium, 9 March 2020 to 28 June 2020. Euro Surveill 2022; 27. [PMID: 35177167 PMCID: PMC8855510 DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2022.27.7.2002060] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
BackgroundCOVID-19 mortality, excess mortality, deaths per million population (DPM), infection fatality ratio (IFR) and case fatality ratio (CFR) are reported and compared for many countries globally. These measures may appear objective, however, they should be interpreted with caution.AimWe examined reported COVID-19-related mortality in Belgium from 9 March 2020 to 28 June 2020, placing it against the background of excess mortality and compared the DPM and IFR between countries and within subgroups.MethodsThe relation between COVID-19-related mortality and excess mortality was evaluated by comparing COVID-19 mortality and the difference between observed and weekly average predictions of all-cause mortality. DPM were evaluated using demographic data of the Belgian population. The number of infections was estimated by a stochastic compartmental model. The IFR was estimated using a delay distribution between infection and death.ResultsIn the study period, 9,621 COVID-19-related deaths were reported, which is close to the excess mortality estimated using weekly averages (8,985 deaths). This translates to 837 DPM and an IFR of 1.5% in the general population. Both DPM and IFR increase with age and are substantially larger in the nursing home population.DiscussionDuring the first pandemic wave, Belgium had no discrepancy between COVID-19-related mortality and excess mortality. In light of this close agreement, it is useful to consider the DPM and IFR, which are both age, sex, and nursing home population-dependent. Comparison of COVID-19 mortality between countries should rather be based on excess mortality than on COVID-19-related mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Geert Molenberghs
- I-BioStat, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.,Data Science Institute, I-BioStat, Universiteit Hasselt, Hasselt, Belgium
| | - Christel Faes
- Data Science Institute, I-BioStat, Universiteit Hasselt, Hasselt, Belgium
| | - Johan Verbeeck
- Data Science Institute, I-BioStat, Universiteit Hasselt, Hasselt, Belgium
| | - Patrick Deboosere
- Interface Demography (ID), Department of Sociology, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Steven Abrams
- Global Health Institute (GHI), Family Medicine and Population Health, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.,Data Science Institute, I-BioStat, Universiteit Hasselt, Hasselt, Belgium
| | - Lander Willem
- Centre for Health Economics Research and Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CHERMID), Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute (VAXINFECTIO), University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium
| | - Jan Aerts
- Data Science Institute, I-BioStat, Universiteit Hasselt, Hasselt, Belgium
| | - Heidi Theeten
- Centre for the Evaluation of Vaccination (CEV), Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute (VAXINFECTIO), University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium
| | - Brecht Devleesschauwer
- Department of Translational Physiology, Infectiology and Public Health, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium.,Department of Epidemiology and public health, Sciensano, Brussels, Belgium
| | | | - Françoise Renard
- Department of Epidemiology and public health, Sciensano, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Sereina Herzog
- Centre for Health Economics Research and Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CHERMID), Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute (VAXINFECTIO), University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium
| | | | | | - Herman Van Oyen
- Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium.,Department of Epidemiology and public health, Sciensano, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Pierre Van Damme
- Centre for the Evaluation of Vaccination (CEV), Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute (VAXINFECTIO), University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium
| | - Niel Hens
- Centre for Health Economics Research and Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CHERMID), Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute (VAXINFECTIO), University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.,Data Science Institute, I-BioStat, Universiteit Hasselt, Hasselt, Belgium
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Jirjees FJ, Dallal Bashi YH, Al-Obaidi HJ. COVID-19 Death and BCG Vaccination Programs Worldwide. Tuberc Respir Dis (Seoul) 2020; 84:13-21. [PMID: 32883062 PMCID: PMC7801810 DOI: 10.4046/trd.2020.0063] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/18/2020] [Accepted: 09/04/2020] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Several clinical trials are being conducted worldwide to investigate the protective effect of the bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine against death in healthcare providers who are working directly with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. Clinical studies suggested that certain live vaccines, particularly the BCG vaccine, could reduce the mortality due to other diseases caused by non-targeted pathogens, most probably through the nonspecific effects (heterologous effects). By the end of May 2020, the available information on the COVID-19 pandemic indicated the great effect of the BCG vaccine in reducing the number of COVID-19 death cases. The occurrence of death due to COVID-19 was found to be 21-fold lower in countries with a national BCG vaccination policy than in countries without such a policy, based on the medians of COVID-19 death case per 1 million of the population in these two groups of countries (p<0.001, MannWhitney test). Therefore, it can be concluded that the early establishment of a BCG vaccination policy in any country is a key element in reducing the number of COVID-19 and tuberculosis death cases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Feras J Jirjees
- College of Pharmacy, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
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