Exploring the driving forces and scenario analysis for catastrophic and impoverishing health expenditures in Iran

BACKGROUND

The extent of healthcare expenditure within households stands as a crucial indicator in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). When out-of-pocket healthcare expenses surpass household income or become unduly burdensome, it serves as a significant socio-economic alarm, resulting in a reduced quality of life, a phenomenon referred to as 'catastrophic health expenditure (CHE).' Multiple factors can contribute to the occurrence of CHE. The study's objective was to identify the key uncertainties and driving forces influencing CHE to develop scenarios in Iran on the horizon of 2030.

METHODS

This study was conducted between December 2021 and January 2023, data were collected through a literature review, and experts' opinions were gathered via questionnaires, interviews, and expert panels. The statistical population included experts in the fields of health policy, health economics, and futures studies. Scenario Wizard software and MICMAC analysis were employed for data analysis, providing valuable insights into potential future scenarios of health expenditures in Iran.

RESULTS

Based on the results of the scoping review and semi-structured interview, 65 key factors in the fields of economics, politics, technology, social, and environmental were identified. The findings of the MICMAC analysis presented 10 key variables. Finally, six main scenario spaces are depicted using Scenario Wizard. These scenarios included catastrophic cost crises, sanction relief, selective information access, technological ambiguity, induced demand management, and incremental reforms.

CONCLUSIONS

Each of the six drawn scenarios provides images of the future of health expenditure in Iranian households on the horizon of 2030. The worst-case scenario from all scenarios was scenario one, with the most probable and critical features to derive Iran's health expenditures. The current study is a valuable addition to the literature depicting the key drivers that all developing nations can consider to decrease exposing households to catastrophic and impoverishing health expenditures.

From Procedure to Poverty: Out-of-Pocket and Catastrophic Expenditure for Pediatric Surgery in Uganda

BACKGROUND

Financial protection from catastrophic health care expenditure (CHE) and patient out-of-pocket (OOP) spending are key indicators for sustainable surgical delivery. We aimed to calculate these metrics for a hospital stay requiring surgery in Uganda's pediatric population.

METHODS

A survey was administered to family members of postoperative patients in the pediatric surgical ward at Mulago Hospital. Cost categories included direct medical costs, direct nonmedical costs, indirect costs, plus money borrowed and items sold to pay for the hospital stay. CHE was defined as spending greater than 10% of annual household expenditure. Costs were reported in Ugandan shillings and US dollars.

RESULTS

One hundred and thirty-two patient families were surveyed between November 2016 and April 2017. Median direct costs were $27.55 (IQR 18.73-183.69) for diagnostics, $18.36 (IQR 9.52-41.33) for medications, $26.63 (IQR 9.19-45.92) for transportation, and $32.60 (IQR 12.85-64.29) for food and lodging. Forty-four percent of respondents were employed, and median indirect cost from productivity loss was $95.52 (IQR 55.10-243.38). Eighteen percent (16/87) borrowed money, and 9% (8/87) sold possessions to pay for the hospital stay. Total median OOP cost for patient families per hospital stay was $150.62 (IQR 65.21-339.82). Sixteen percent (21/132) of families incurred CHE from direct costs, and the proportion rose to 27% (32/132) when indirect cost was included.

CONCLUSIONS

Although pediatric surgical services in Uganda are formally provided for free by the public sector, families accrue substantial OOP expenditure and almost a third of households incur CHE for a pediatric surgical procedure. This study suggests that broader financial protection must be established to meet Sustainable Development Goal targets.

Income related inequality and influencing factors: a study for the incidence of catastrophic health expenditure in rural China

BACKGROUND

Catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) puts a heavy disease burden on patients' families, aggravating income-related inequality. In an attempt to reduce the financial risks of rural families incurring CHE, China began the New Rural Cooperative Medical System (NCMS) on a trial basis in 2003 and has raised the reimbursement rates continuously since then. Based on statistical data about rural families in sample area of Jiangsu province, this study measures the incidence of CHE, analyzes socioeconomic inequality related to CHE, and explores the influences of the NCMS on the incidence of CHE.

METHODS

Statistical data were acquired from two surveys about rural health care, one conducted in 2009 and one conducted in 2010. In 2009, 1424 rural families were analyzed; in 2010, 1796 rural families were analyzed. An index of CHE is created to enable the evaluation of the associated financial risks. The concentration index and concentration curve are used to measure the income-related inequality involved in CHE. Multiple logistic regression is utilized to explore the factors that influence the incidence of CHE.

RESULTS

The incidence of CHE decreased from 13.62% in 2009 to 7.74% in 2010. The concentration index of CHE was changed from -0.298 (2009) to -0.323 (2010). Compared with rural families in which all members were covered by the NCMS, rural families in which some members were not covered by the NCMS had a lower incidence of CHE: The odds ratio is 0.65 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.43 to 1.00. For rural families in which all members were covered by the NCMS, the increase in reimbursement rates is correlated to the decline in the incidence of CHE if other influencing factors were controlled: The odds ratio is 0.48 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.36 to 0.64.

CONCLUSIONS

Between 2009 and 2010, the incidence rate of CHE in the sampled area decreased sharply, CHE was more concentrated among least wealthy and inequality increased during study period. As of 2010, the poorest rural families still had high risk of experiencing CHE. For rural families in which all members are covered by the NCMS, the rise in reimbursement rates reduces the probability of experiencing CHE.

Catastrophic healthcare expenditure and its inequality for households with hypertension: evidence from the rural areas of Shaanxi Province in China

Background

China has been undergoing tremendous demographic and epidemiological transitions during the past three decades and increasing burden from non-communicable diseases and an ageing population have presented great health-care challenges for the country. Numerous studies examine catastrophic healthcare expenditures (CHE) worldwide on whole populations rather than specific vulnerable groups. As hypertension and other chronic conditions impose a growing share of the disease burden in China, they will become an increasingly important component of CHE. This study aims to estimate households with hypertension incurring CHE and its income-related inequality in the rural areas of Shaanxi Province.

Methods

Data were obtained from the National Household Health Service Surveys of Shaanxi Province conducted in 2013 and 13104 households were identified for analysis. The households were classified into three types: households with non-chronic diseases, households with hypertension only and households with hypertension plus other chronic diseases. CHE was measured according to the proportion of out-of-pocket health payments to non-food household expenditures and the concentration index was employed to measure the extent of income-related inequality in CHE. A decomposition method based on a probit model was used to decompose the concentration index into its determining components.

Results

The incurring of CHE of households with hypertension is at a disconcerting level compared to households with non-chronic diseases. Households with hypertension only and households with hypertension plus other chronic diseases incurred CHE in 23.48% and 34.01% of cases respectively whereas households with non-chronic diseases incurred CHE in only 13.33%. The concentration index of households with non-chronic diseases is -0.4871. However, the concentration index of households with hypertension only and households with hypertension plus other chronic diseases is -0.4645 and -0.3410 respectively. The majority of observed inequalities in CHE were explained by household economic status and having elder members.

Conclusions

The proportion of households incurring CHE in the rural areas of Shaanxi Province was considerably high in all three types of households and households with hypertension were at a higher risk of incurring CHE. Furthermore, there existed a strong pro-poor inequality of CHE in all three types of households and the results implied more inequality in households with non-chronic diseases compared with two other groups. Our study suggests that more concern needs to be directed toward households with hypertension plus other chronic diseases and households having elder members.