Exploring the driving forces and scenario analysis for catastrophic and impoverishing health expenditures in Iran

BACKGROUND

The extent of healthcare expenditure within households stands as a crucial indicator in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). When out-of-pocket healthcare expenses surpass household income or become unduly burdensome, it serves as a significant socio-economic alarm, resulting in a reduced quality of life, a phenomenon referred to as 'catastrophic health expenditure (CHE).' Multiple factors can contribute to the occurrence of CHE. The study's objective was to identify the key uncertainties and driving forces influencing CHE to develop scenarios in Iran on the horizon of 2030.

METHODS

This study was conducted between December 2021 and January 2023, data were collected through a literature review, and experts' opinions were gathered via questionnaires, interviews, and expert panels. The statistical population included experts in the fields of health policy, health economics, and futures studies. Scenario Wizard software and MICMAC analysis were employed for data analysis, providing valuable insights into potential future scenarios of health expenditures in Iran.

RESULTS

Based on the results of the scoping review and semi-structured interview, 65 key factors in the fields of economics, politics, technology, social, and environmental were identified. The findings of the MICMAC analysis presented 10 key variables. Finally, six main scenario spaces are depicted using Scenario Wizard. These scenarios included catastrophic cost crises, sanction relief, selective information access, technological ambiguity, induced demand management, and incremental reforms.

CONCLUSIONS

Each of the six drawn scenarios provides images of the future of health expenditure in Iranian households on the horizon of 2030. The worst-case scenario from all scenarios was scenario one, with the most probable and critical features to derive Iran's health expenditures. The current study is a valuable addition to the literature depicting the key drivers that all developing nations can consider to decrease exposing households to catastrophic and impoverishing health expenditures.

Using a multimethod approach to develop implementation strategies for a cervical self-sampling program in Kenya

BACKGROUND

Numerous health policy makers/researchers are concerned about the limitations of research being applied to support informed decision/policy making and the implementation of practical solutions. The aim of the Chaguo Letu project (which means our choice in Swahili) was to determine how local decision makers could apply a multimethod approach to make strategic decisions to effectively implement a Cervical Self-Sampling Program in Kenya.

METHODS

A multimethod approach, involving participatory action research, scenario based planning, and phenomenology, was applied in conjunction with two tools to identify relevant factors (negative or positive) that could impact Cervical Self-Sampling Program implementation. A total of 107 stakeholders participated in interviews, focus groups, workshops, and informal interactions. Content analysis, an affinity exercise, and impact analysis were used to analyze data and develop robust strategic directions and supporting implementation strategies.

RESULTS

A total of 57 factors thought to impact the implementation of the Cervical Self-Sampling Program were identified and grouped into 13 thematic categories. These themes were instrumental in developing 10 strategic directions and 22 implementation strategies deemed necessary to implement a technically viable, politically supported, affordable, logistically feasible, socially acceptable, and transformative Program.

CONCLUSIONS

This study made three conclusions: 1) there is political will and a desire to improve cervical screening across Kenya, but in a period of dynamic change resources are constrained; 2) implementing the Program in urban/rural settings is logistically feasible, but the majority of Kenyan women could not afford screening without some form of a subsidy, and 3) self-sampling is perceived to be much more socially acceptable than the current Pap screening process. The Chaguo Letu study went beyond the traditional strategy development process of determining "what" needs to do done by describing in detail "how" the Program should be implemented to be relevant and accessible to all Kenyan women at risk of cervical cancer. This work could potentially facilitate communities of practice and knowledge sharing when addressing other types of health decisions in other low resource settings beyond Kenya.