Evaluation of the integrated riparian ecosystem response to future flow regimes on semiarid rivers in Colorado, USA

Riparian ecosystems are shaped by interactions among streamflow, plants, and physical processes. Sustaining functioning riparian ecosystems in the face of climate change, growing human demands for water, and increasing water scarcity requires improved understanding of the sensitivity of riparian ecosystems to shifts in flow regimes and associated adaptive management strategies. We applied projected future flow regimes to an ecogeomorphic model of riparian and channel response to evaluate these interactions. We tested the hypothesis that components of the riparian ecosystem vary in their vulnerabilities to shifts in flow attributes and that changes in the representation of functional groups of plants result from interactions between ecological and physical drivers. Using the Yampa and Green Rivers in northwestern Colorado as our test system, we investigated ecogeomorphic response to (1) synthetic flow regimes representing continuous changes from baseline flows; and (2) future flow scenarios that incorporate changing climate, demand, and water-resource projects. For this region, we showed that riparian plant presence, composition, and cover are highly sensitive to the high flows that occur early in the growing season, but that shifts to low flows are also important, especially for determining the functional diversity of a riparian community. Future flow regimes are likely to induce vegetation encroachment on lower channel surfaces and to increase plant cover, which will be dominated by fewer functional groups. In particular, we predict a decrease in some mesic plants (shrubs and tall herbs) and an increase in presence and cover of late-seral, xeric shrubs, most of which are non-native species. Managing for high flows that occur early in the growing season must complement maintenance of adequate baseflows to maintain ecosystem functioning in the face of hydrologic alterations induced by climate change and human water demand.

Disentangling the influences of mean body size and size structure on ecosystem functioning: an example of nutrient recycling by a non-native crayfish

Body size is a fundamental functional trait that can be used to forecast individuals' responses to environmental change and their contribution to ecosystem functioning. However, information on the mean and variation of size distributions often confound one another when relating body size to aggregate functioning. Given that size‐based metrics are used as indicators of ecosystem status, it is important to identify the specific aspects of size distributions that mediate ecosystem functioning. Our goal was to simultaneously account for the mean, variance, and shape of size distributions when relating body size to aggregate ecosystem functioning. We take advantage of habitat‐specific differences in size distributions to estimate nutrient recycling by a non‐native crayfish using mean‐field and variance‐incorporating approaches. Crayfishes often substantially influence ecosystem functioning through their omnivorous role in aquatic food webs. As predicted from Jensen's inequality, considering only the mean body size of crayfish overestimated aggregate effects on ecosystem functioning. This bias declined with mean body size such that mean‐field and variance‐incorporating estimates of ecosystem functioning were similar for samples at mean body sizes >7.5 g. At low mean body size, mean‐field bias in ecosystem functioning mismatch predictions from Jensen's inequality, likely because of the increasing skewness of the size distribution. Our findings support the prediction that variance around the mean can alter the relationship between body size and ecosystem functioning, especially at low mean body size. However, methods to account for mean‐field bias performed poorly in samples with highly skewed distributions, indicating that changes in the shape of the distribution, in addition to the variance, may confound mean‐based estimates of ecosystem functioning. Given that many biological functions scale allometrically, explicitly defining and experimentally or statistically isolating the effects of the mean, variance, and shape of size distributions is necessary to begin generalizing relationships between animal body size and ecosystem functioning.

Groundwater depletion during drought threatens future water security of the Colorado River Basin

Streamflow of the Colorado River Basin is the most overallocated in the world. Recent assessment indicates that demand for this renewable resource will soon outstrip supply, suggesting that limited groundwater reserves will play an increasingly important role in meeting future water needs. Here we analyze 9 years (December 2004 to November 2013) of observations from the NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mission and find that during this period of sustained drought, groundwater accounted for 50.1 km³ of the total 64.8 km³ of freshwater loss. The rapid rate of depletion of groundwater storage (-5.6 ± 0.4 km³ yr^-1) far exceeded the rate of depletion of Lake Powell and Lake Mead. Results indicate that groundwater may comprise a far greater fraction of Basin water use than previously recognized, in particular during drought, and that its disappearance may threaten the long-term ability to meet future allocations to the seven Basin states.