Adolescent Antecedents of Young Adult Homelessness: a Cross-national Path Analysis

Adolescent and young adult health, development, and behavior lay a foundation for future population health. Increasing rates of young adult homelessness mean there is a need for research which generates evidence to support a stronger focus on population-level prevention. Using longitudinal data from a population-based sample of young adults participating in the cross-nationally matched International Youth Development Study, we examined adolescent antecedents of young adult homelessness in Washington State in the USA and in Victoria, Australia. Participants were surveyed using a modified version of the Communities That Care youth survey. Analyses of prospective, longitudinal data from 1945 participants, recruited as state-representative secondary school samples at grade 7 (average age 13, 2002) and longitudinally compared at young adulthood (average age 25, 2014), showed that young adults in Washington State reported higher rates of past year homelessness (5.24%) compared to those in Victoria (3.25%). Path modeling showed less positive family management strategies at age 13 uniquely increased risk for age 25 homelessness. This effect remained after accounting for age 15 antecedents in peer-group, school, and community environments. Friends' drug use, school suspension, academic failure, and low neighborhood attachment at age 15 mediated the association between less positive family management strategies at age 13 and age 25 homelessness. Despite observing some cross-national differences in levels of family, peer-group, school, and community antecedents, we found that these factors equally increased risk for age 25 homelessness in both states, suggesting similar cross-national influences for young adult homelessness. The findings indicate cross-nationally common adolescent antecedents for young adult homelessness that could be targeted by prevention strategies across international settings.

Longitudinal Associations Between Early-Mid Adolescent Risk and Protective Factors and Young Adult Homelessness in Australia and the United States

Homelessness is associated with a range of negative health and behavioral outcomes, yet life-course pathways to homelessness from adolescence to early adulthood are not well-documented. This study asks to what extent do early-mid adolescent risk and protective factors predict young adult homelessness, and whether the predictive nature of these factors is similar in Victoria, Australia, and Washington State in the USA. As part of the International Youth Development Study, adolescents were recruited as state representative secondary school samples at grade 7 (age 13, 2002) and longitudinally compared at average age 25. Higher rates of past year homelessness were reported by Washington State (5.24%), compared to Victorian young adults (3.25%). Although some cross-state differences in levels of adolescent demographic, individual, family, peer group, school, and community predictors were found, cross-state comparisons showed these factors were equally predictive of young adult homelessness in both states. In univariate analyses, most adolescent risk and protective factors were significant predictors. Unique multivariate adolescent predictors associated with young adult homelessness included school suspension (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 2.76) and academic failure (AOR = 1.94). No significant unique protective effects were found. Prevention and intervention efforts that support adolescents' academic engagement may help in addressing young adult homelessness. The similar cross-state profile of adolescent predictors suggests that programs seeking to support academic engagement may influence risk for homelessness into young adulthood in both states. The similarity in life-course pathways to homelessness suggests that the USA and Australia can profitably translate prevention and intervention efforts to reduce homelessness while continuing to identify modifiable predictors.