Epidemiological analysis of HPV in Sichuan during 2014-2021

INTRODUCTION

Cervical cancer is a common malignancy among woman, strong molecular epidemiological data show that high risk HPV infection is the main cause of cervical cancer.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Samples were collected from Sichuan women's and children's hospital based on the relevant guidelines and regulations, HPV DNA was extracted and evaluated by Human Papillomavirus Genotyping Kit for 21 types, according to the manufacturer's guidelines to analyze the epidemic age, mixed infection types, variation trend of HPV types in Sichuan from 2014 to 2021; Results: Out of 51174 samples11165 (21.82 %) HPV positive samples were detected, all belonging to alpha family, 53.32 % HPV positive samples and 61.51 % high-risk (HR) HPV positive samples are alpha-9 genus; The three commonest HR were HPV-52, HPV-16, HPV-58, and the low-risk (LR) HPV were HPV-81, HPV-6, HPV-11; Single infection was absolutely predominant and the age group with the highest HPV detection rate was 26-30 years old. During 2014-2021, HPV-16, HPV-6 and HPV-11 decline, while HPV-58 and HPV-52 increased; Conclusions: The most prevalent age group of HPV in this region was 26-30 years old. The detection rate of HPV-52 increased in the region, overtaking HPV-16 as the commonest type of HPV. α-9 genus HPV with strong pathogenicity is the commonest HR HPV. HPV prevalence systematic comparison in certain areas and continuous time can accurately and intuitively understand its distribution changes, achieve analysis of the epidemic trend, and provide guidance for the prevention, treatment and scientific research of HPV in Sichuan.

The value of discharged case fatality rate in estimating the severity and epidemic trend of COVID-19 in China: a novel epidemiological study

Aim

The main objective of this study was to explore the value of the discharged case fatality rate (DCFR) in estimating the severity and epidemic trend of COVID-19 in China.

Subjects and methods

Epidemiological data on COVID-19 in China and Hubei Province were obtained from the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China from January 20, 2020, to March 31, 2020. The number of daily new confirmed cases, daily confirmed deaths, daily recovered cases, the proportion of daily deaths and total deaths of discharged cases were collected, and the total discharge case fatality rate (tDCFR), daily discharge case fatality rate (dDCFR), and stage-discharge case fatality rate (sDCFR) were calculated. We used the R software (version 3.6.3, R core team) to apply a trimmed exact linear time method to search for changes in the mean and variance of dDCFR in order to estimate the pandemic phase from dDCFR.

Results

The tDCFR of COVID-19 in China was 4.16% until March 31, 2020. According to the pattern of dDCFR, the pandemic was divided into four phases: the transmission phase (from January 20 to February 2), the epidemic phase (from February 3 to February 14), the decline phase (from February 15 to February 22), and the sporadic phase (from February 23 to March 31). The sDCFR for these four phases was 43.18% (CI 39.82-46.54%), 13.23% (CI 12.52-13.94%), 5.86% (CI 5.49-6.22%), and 1.61% (CI 1.50-1.72%), respectively.

Conclusion

DCFR has great value in assessing the severity and epidemic trend of COVID-19.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10389-023-01895-4.

[Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of soil-transmitted nematodiasis in Sichuan Province from 2016 to 2021]

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the trends in the prevalence of soil-transmitted nematode infections and the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of soil-transmitted nematodiasis in Sichuan Province from 2016 to 2021, so as to provide the evidence for formulating the soil-transmitted nematodiasis elimination strategy in Sichuan Province.

METHODS

The soil-transmitted nematodiasis surveillance data in Sichuan Province from 2016 to 2021 were collected, and the epidemic trend of soil-transmitted nematode infections was identified. The distribution maps of soil-transmitted nematode infections in Sichuan Province were plotted to identify their spatial distribution characteristics. In addition, the spatial clusters of soil-transmitted nematode infections were detected using globa and local spatial autocorrelation analyses.

RESULTS

The prevalence of soil-transmitted nematode infections appeared a decline with time in Sichuan Province from 2016 to 2021 (χ²= 400.24, P < 0.01). Global spatial autocorrelation analysis identified positive spatial autocorrelations in the prevalence of soil-transmitted nematode infections (Moran's I = 0.322, Z = 16.293, P < 0.01), hookworm infections (Moran's I = 0.425, Z = 21.290, P < 0.01), Ascaris lumbricoides infections (Moran's I = 0.102, Z = 5.782, P < 0.01) and Trichuris trichiura infections (Moran's I = 0.084, Z = 6.873, P < 0.01). Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the high-high clusters of soil-transmitted nematode infections were mainly located in 37 counties (cities, districts) of Sichuan Province, and the high-high clusters of hookworm, A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura infections were mainly identified in 39 counties (cities, districts) in mountainous areas around Sichuan Basin and hilly areas, 9 counties (cities, districts) in mountainous areas in southwestern Sichuan Province, and 8 counties (cities, districts) in mountainous areas in southwestern Sichuan Province, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of soil-transmitted nematode infections appeared a tendency towards a decline in Sichuan Province from 2016 to 2021, which showed spatial clusters. The management of soil-transmitted nematodiasis requires to be reinforced in high-risk areas of Sichuan Province with adaptations to local epidemiological features.

Assessing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and BCG vaccine cross-protection in the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in eastern Africa

Objective

The outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is still affecting African countries. The pandemic presents challenges on how to measure governmental, and community responses to the crisis. Beyond health risks, the socio-economic implications of the pandemic motivated us to examine the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). The main objective of this study was to assess the impact of BCG vaccination and NPIs enforced on COVID-19 case-death-recovery counts weighted by age-structured population in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Rwanda. We applied a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) combined with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation to the age-structured pandemic data obtained from the target countries.

Results

The estimated mean effective reproductive number (R_t) for COVID-19 was 2.50 (C1: 1.99–5.95), 3.51 (CI: 2.28–7.28) and 3.53 (CI: 2.97–5.60) in Ethiopia, Kenya and Rwanda respectively. Our results indicate that NPIs such as lockdowns, and curfews had a large effect on reducing R_t. Current interventions have been effective in reducing R_t and thereby achieve control of the epidemic. Beyond age-structure and NPIs, we found no significant association between COVID-19 and BCG vaccine-induced protection. Continued interventions should be strengthened to control transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13104-022-06171-4.

[Epidemic trend and control progress of taeniasis and cysticercosis in Henan Province]

Henan Province is one of the provinces where taeniasis and cysticercosis were historically highly prevalent, and Taenia solium is the dominant species of tapeworm. Following the concerted efforts since 1970s, the prevalence of human taeniasis and cysticercosis has been maintained at a low level in Henan Province, which facilitates the national taeniasis and cysticercosis elimination program in China. Following the implementation of the policy of aeniasis and cysticercosis elimination and classified guidance, a great success has been achieved in aeniasis and cysticercosis control in Henan Province. With continuous promotion of the opening-up policy and the Belt and Road Initiative, there are still challenges in taeniasis and cysticercosis control. This review summarizes the control progress of taeniasis and cysticercosis and proposes the challenges of taeniasis and cysticercosis control in Henan Province.

Using outbreak data to estimate the dynamic COVID-19 landscape in Eastern Africa

Background

The emergence of COVID-19 as a global pandemic presents a serious health threat to African countries and the livelihoods of its people. To mitigate the impact of this disease, intervention measures including self-isolation, schools and border closures were implemented to varying degrees of success. Moreover, there are a limited number of empirical studies on the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control COVID-19. In this study, we considered two models to inform policy decisions about pandemic planning and the implementation of NPIs based on case-death-recovery counts.

Methods

We applied an extended susceptible-infected-removed (eSIR) model, incorporating quarantine, antibody and vaccination compartments, to time series data in order to assess the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. Additionally, we adopted the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model to investigate the robustness of the eSIR model based on case-death-recovery counts and the reproductive number (R₀). The prediction accuracy was assessed using the root mean square error and mean absolute error. Moreover, parameter sensitivity analysis was performed by fixing initial parameters in the SEIR model and then estimating R₀, β and γ.

Results

We observed an exponential trend of the number of active cases of COVID-19 since March 02 2020, with the pandemic peak occurring around August 2021. The estimated mean R₀ values ranged from 1.32 (95% CI, 1.17–1.49) in Rwanda to 8.52 (95% CI: 3.73–14.10) in Kenya. The predicted case counts by January 16/2022 in Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda were 115,505; 7,072,584; 18,248,566; 410,599; 386,020; 107,265, and 3,145,602 respectively. We show that the low apparent morbidity and mortality observed in EACs, is likely biased by underestimation of the infected and mortality cases.

Conclusion

The current NPIs can delay the pandemic pea and effectively reduce further spread of COVID-19 and should therefore be strengthened. The observed reduction in R₀ is consistent with the interventions implemented in EACs, in particular, lockdowns and roll-out of vaccination programmes. Future work should account for the negative impact of the interventions on the economy and food systems.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07510-3.

Prevalence trends of latent tuberculosis infection at the global, regional, and country levels from 1990-2019

OBJECTIVES

To track the prevalence trends of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) at the global, regional, and national levels.

METHODS

Data on the prevalence of LTBI were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease database. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was estimated by joinpoint regression and was used to evaluate the epidemic of the disease.

RESULTS

Globally, the prevalence rate of LTBI decreased from 30.66% in 1990 to 23.67% in 2019, with an AAPC of -0.9%. The prevalence rate of LTBI varied from 5.02% (Jordan) to 48.35% (Uganda) in 1990 and from 2.51% (Jordan) to 43.75% (Vietnam) in 2019 at the country level. The prevalence decreased in all the six World Health Organization (WHO) regions and in most countries, with the AAPC ranging from -0.5% in the Western Pacific Region to -2.1% in the European Region and from -4.3% (Bhutan) to -0.1% (Malaysia, Myanmar, South Africa, Tokelau, and Vietnam), respectively. Disparities were also observed among different sex and age groups.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of LTBI decreased slightly worldwide in the last three decades, but the decrease is slow and not sufficient to meet the targets of WHO tuberculosis elimination. Much more effort and progress should be made in order to decrease the prevalence of LTBI.

Prevalence trends of hypertension among 9-17 aged children and adolescents in Yunnan, 2017-2019: a serial cross-sectional surveillance survey

BACKGROUND

We aim to describe the prevalence and trends of hypertension among 9-17 school-aged students from 2017 to 2019 in Yunnan, China.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study by using data from the Students' Health Surveillance Surveys of 2017, 2018 and 2019 in Yunnan. The Students' Health Surveillance Surveys in Yunnan collected date on physical fitness and health status of students in Yunnan through multistage-stratified sampling in 3 prefectures. In each prefecture, the study population were classified by gender and region (urban or rural), and each group had an equal size. Diagnosing criteria of hypertension was set with reference to Chinese age-specific and height-specific blood pressure (BP), to identify the abnormal status of boys and girls separately. ANOVA test was adopted to measure the differences in the mean BP stratified by gender, age, prefecture and area, and Chi-square test was used to compare the percentages of hypertension in different areas. For comparability, the age-standard and gender-standard population prevalence was calculated by directly using China Census in 2010 as a standard population. Totally 24,890 participants aged 9-17 years were included in this study.

RESULTS

From 2017 to 2019, there were 24,872 students completed physical examinations and included in the analysis, of which 3288 were diagnosed with hypertension. The total prevalence of hypertension was 13.72, 12.49 and 13.45% among 9-17 years school-aged population in Yunnan, respectively. The total age-standardized hypertension prevalence trended to decrease from 13.82 to 13.48%. For urban population, the age-standardized hypertension prevalence decreased slightly from 11.24 to 10.13%. While, for rural population, it increased from 17.58 to 19.16%. The average annual growth rate in rural population was 0.53%.

CONCLUSIONS

From 2017to 2019, there was a significant and continuous increase in the prevalence of hypertension in 9-17 years school-aged population in Yunnan. Hypertension is epidemic among children and adolescents in Yunnan. We should take effective and comprehensive intervention measures to reduce its prevalence among school-aged children.

The value of infectious disease modeling and trend assessment: a public health perspective

INTRODUCTION

Disease outbreaks of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, severe acute respiratory syndrome, pandemic H1N1, H7N9, H5N1, Ebola, Zika, Middle East respiratory syndrome, and recently COVID-19 have raised the attention of the public over the past half-century. Revealing the characteristics and epidemic trends are important parts of disease control. The biological scenarios including transmission characteristics can be constructed and translated into mathematical models, which can help to predict and gain a deeper understanding of diseases.

AREAS COVERED

This review discusses the models for infectious diseases and highlights their values in the field of public health. This information will be of interest to mathematicians and clinicians, and make a significant contribution toward the development of more specific and effective models. Literature searches were performed using the online database of PubMed (inception to August 2020).

EXPERT OPINION

Modeling could contribute to infectious disease control by means of predicting the scales of disease epidemics, indicating the characteristics of disease transmission, evaluating the effectiveness of interventions or policies, and warning or forecasting during the pre-outbreak of diseases. With the development of theories and the ability of calculations, infectious disease modeling would play a much more important role in disease prevention and control of public health.

Effects of policies and containment measures on control of COVID-19 epidemic in Chongqing

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an emerging, rapidly evolving disease that spreads through the respiratory system and is highly contagious. In March 2020, the World Health Organization declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic. In China, the pandemic was controlled after 2 mo through effective policies and containment measures. Describing the detailed policies and containment measures used to control the epidemic in Chongqing will provide a reference for the prevention and control of COVID-19 in other areas of the world.

AIM

To explore the effects of different policies and containment measures on the control of the COVID-19 epidemic in Chongqing.

METHODS

Epidemiological data on COVID-19 in Chongqing were prospectively collected from January 21 to March 15, 2020. The policies and prevention measures implemented by the government during the epidemic period were also collected. Trend analysis was performed to explore the impact of the main policy measures on the effectiveness of the control of COVID-19 in Chongqing.

RESULTS

As of March 15, the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 in Chongqing was 1.84/100000 (576 cases) and the infection fatality rate was 1.04% (6/576). The spread of COVID-19 was controlled by effective policies that involved establishing a group for directing the COVID-19 epidemic control effort; strengthening guidance and supervision; ensuring the supply of daily necessities and medical supplies and equipment to residents; setting up designated hospitals; implementing legal measures; and enhancing health education. Medical techniques were implemented to improve the recovery rate and control the epidemic. Policies such as "the lockdown of Wuhan", "initiating a first-level response to major public health emergencies", and "implementing the closed management of residential communities" significantly curbed the spread of COVID-19. Optimizing the diagnosis process, shortening the diagnosis time, and constructing teams of clinical experts facilitated the provision of "one team of medical experts for each patient" treatment for severe patients, which significantly improved the recovery rate and reduced the infection fatality rate.

CONCLUSION

The prevention policies and containment measures implemented by the government and medical institutions are highly effective in controlling the spread of the epidemic and increasing the recovery rate of COVID-19 patients.

[Trend of epidemics and variation of pathogens of hand, foot and mouth disease in China: a dynamic series analysis, 2008-2017]

Objective: To understand the trend of epidemics and variation of pathogens on hand, foot and mouth diseases (HFMD) in China for setting up appropriate intervention measures. Methods: Data related to reported cases and outbreaks of HFMD from the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance Reporting System of China, 2008 to 2017, was collected and analyzed. Based on the geographical location and types of climate, the total 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in the mainland of China, were divided into seven regions: north-west, north, mid-north, east, mid-south, south, and south-west regions, with epidemic trends and variation of pathogens analyzed. The average speed of growth on the dynamic series from 2008 to 2017 was calculated, using the Geometric Average method. Results: The overall reported incidence rate of HFMD during 2008-2017 was 134.59 per 100 000 population with an average increase of 15.92%. The proportion of severe cases was 0.84%, with 9.56% increase. The reported mortality rate of HFMD was 0.03/100 000, with an average decrease of 3.49%. The case fatality rate was 0.02% and with a decrease of 16.86%. A total of 6 000 outbreaks were reported during the decade. Except for 1.09% decrease on the incidence rate in the north region, all the other regions showed an increase on the morbidity rates, with the highest as25.20% in the south region. Mortality rates showed 27.53% and 0.60% increases in both the south-west and mid-north regions, respectively. Mortality rates in the other regions all showed a decreasing trend. In terms of case fatality rate, it increased 4.15% in the south-west region while all decreased in the other regions. Two higher age-special morbidity rates appeared in the 1 year olds as 3 184.19/100 000 and in the 2 year olds as 2 547.47/100 000, with the most increase seen in both 0 year (26.08%) and 1 year age groups (23.35%). High age-specific mortality rates were noticed in both the 1-year group as 0.86/100 000 and the 2-year group as 0.54/100 000, however with reductions as 1.21% and 10.70% respectively. As for the case fatalities, the 0 year olds and 1 year olds accounted for 0.039% and 0.027% but both of them had decreased by 19.12% and 19.91%, respectively. Case fatality rates decreased by 16.93% and 16.75%, in males and females. Proportions of EV71 and Cox A16 decreased by 4.28% and 3.07%, but the proportion of other entero-viruses increased by 16.07%. EV71 was responsible for the high frequency of epidemics in both mid-north and the mid-south regions. However, in other five regions, other strains of EV's were responsible for the epidemics. Conclusions: The characteristics of HFMD in China showed that the morbidity of HFMD and proportion of severe cases were both in increasing trends but both the mortality and case fatality of HFMD were decreasing. Children younger than 3 years old showed both high infection and death rates for HFMD. Epidemics caused by other enteroviruses of non-EV71 and non-Cox A16 were seen more. Variance and pathogens related to the epidemic cycles appeared different in the seven regions.

[The analyze the epidemic trend and predict the incidence trend of occupational diseases in Guangdong province]

Objective: This study was aimed to analyze the epidemic trend and predict the incidence trend of occupational diseases during 2006-2015 in Guangdong province, which may provide the theoretical foundation for occupational disease risk assessment and precise control and prevention. Methods: We analyzed the number of reported occupational disease cases, the constituent ratio, the average age and working-age of patients. We also performed the linear-by-linear association test of new incidence, median age and median working-age by curve-fitting method, of which the diagnostic year was set as the independent variable. Meanwhile, we designed an ARIMA model to predict the variation tendency of occupational diseases in 2017-2020. Results: (1) During 2006-2015, the total reported cases of occupational disease is 5289, including 2101 cases of occupational pneumoconiosis (39.7%) , 1363 cases of occupational poisoning (25.8%) , and 864 cases of occupational otolaryngological and stomatological disease (16.3%) . (2) The number of occupational diseases and pneumoconiosis have a straight upward trend (R(2)=0.851, R(2)=0.856) , while the number of occupational otolaryngological and stomatological disease and occupational tumor have a exponential trend (R(2)=0.914, R(2)=0.696) . The constituent ratio of occupational poisoning is decreasing, and the constituent ratio of occupational otolaryngological and stomatological disease is increasing. (3) The average onset age is 40 (33, 46) years old, and the average onset working-age is 6 (3, 11) years. Both of them have a straight upward trend (R(2)=0.954、R(2)=0.792) . The onset age of pneumoconiosis, occupational poisoning and occupational otolaryngological and stomatological disease have a upward trend. In addition, the onset working-age of occupational poisoning and pneumoconiosis have a upward trend. (4) The number of occupational diseases in 2017-2020 is predicted to be between 902-1231. Conclusion: Occupational diseases in Guangdong province showed a trend of high incidence. The age and working-age of occupational diseases showed an extended trend. Therefore, our work of occupational epidemic trend may provide some bases for the occupational disease risk assessment and precise control and prevention.

[Analysis of malaria epidemic situation and control in Hubei Province from 1974 to 2015]

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the malaria control measures and epidemic trend in Hubei Province from 1974 to 2015, so as to provide the evidence for malaria elimination path analysis.

METHODS

The malaria control data in Hubei Province from 1974 to 2015 were collected and analyzed retrospectively by descriptive epidemiological methods.

RESULTS

The epidemic process of malaria in Hubei Province was divided into four stages. From 1974 to 1979, it was high prevalence state of malaria, and the average annual incidence was 174.47/10 000. From 1980 to 1999, the main control strategies were to control the infection source and mosquitoes, and the average annual incidence was 17.30/10 000, significantly downward. From 2000 to 2009, through the surveillance of infection sources and controlling malaria outbreaks and strengthening the floating population management, the average annual incidence was 0.42/10 000. After 2010, followed by the elimination phase of malaria, the incidence continued to decline. In 2013, there was no local infection for the first time. The difference of average annual incidence among above-mentioned stages was statistically significant (χ² = 1 254.36, P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The malaria epidemic process in Hubei Provincial experienced the high epidemic stage, sharply drop stage, low incidence phase and the elimination phase. However, the natural factors affecting malaria still exist. Therefore, strengthening the control of imported malaria and surveillance should be the main task in the process of eliminating malaria in the future.

Epidemiological investigation of Measles in Bozhou City, China, from 2005 to 2015

BACKGROUND

Measles is one of the most highly contagious diseases which have not been eliminated in China. This study aimed to investigate the epidemiological characteristics of measles in Bozhou city, China between 2005 and 2015 and provide scientific basis for the prevention, control and elimination of measles.

METHODS

Cases of measles derived from the China Information System for Disease Prevention and Control, and demographic data were obtained from the Public Security Bureau of Bozhou city.

RESULTS

Among the 2934 cases, the average annual incidence of measles was 45.934 (per 1,000,000 persons) and no death occurred. The incidence of males was higher than females (Z = 10.794, p < 0.05). Scattered children accounted for 63.2% (1854/2934) in occupation distributing. In terms of immunization history of cases, 57.5% had 0 doses, 15.0% had one dose, 7.5% had two doses and others were uncertain.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study has investigated the epidemiological characteristics of measles in Bozhou City. To eventually eliminate measles in Bozhou city, improving measles vaccination coverage and quality of routine immunization services were important.