A novel flood risk management approach based on future climate and land use change scenarios

Climate change and increasing urbanization are two primary factors responsible for the increased risk of serious flooding around the world. The prediction and monitoring of the effects of land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change on flood risk are critical steps in the development of appropriate strategies to reduce potential damage. This study aimed to develop a new approach by combining machine learning (namely the XGBoost, CatBoost, LightGBM, and ExtraTree models) and hydraulic modeling to predict the effects of climate change and LULC change on land that is at risk of flooding. For the years 2005, 2020, 2035, and 2050, machine learning was used to model and predict flood susceptibility under different scenarios of LULC, while hydraulic modeling was used to model and predict flood depth and flood velocity, based on the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario. The two elements were used to build a flood risk assessment, integrating socioeconomic data such as LULC, population density, poverty rate, number of women, number of schools, and cultivated area. Flood risk was then computed, using the analytical hierarchy process, by combining flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The results showed that the area at high and very high flood risk increased rapidly, as did the areas of high/very high exposure, and high/very high vulnerability. They also showed how flood risk had increased rapidly from 2005 to 2020 and would continue to do so in 2035 and 2050, due to the dynamics of climate change and LULC change, population growth, the number of women, and the number of schools - particularly in the flood zone. The results highlight the relationships between flood risk and environmental and socio-economic changes and suggest that flood risk management strategies should also be integrated in future analyses. The map built in this study shows past and future flood risk, providing insights into the spatial distribution of urban area in flood zones and can be used to facilitate the development of priority measures, flood mitigation being most important.

Climate uncertainty and vulnerability of urban flooding associated with regional risk using multi-criteria analysis in Mumbai, India

The study made a comprehensive effort to examine climatic uncertainties at both yearly and monthly scales, along with mapping flood risks based on different land use categories. Recent studies have progressively been engrossed in demonstrating regional climate variations and associated flood probability to maintain the geo-ecological balance at micro to macro-regions. To carry out this investigation, various historical remote sensing record, reanalyzed and in-situ data sets were acquired with a high level of spatial precision using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) web-based remote sensing platform. Non-parametric techniques and multi-layer integration methods were then employed to illustrate the fluctuations in climate factors alongside creating maps indicating the susceptibility to floods. The study reveals an increased pattern in LST (Land Surface Temperature) (0.03 °C/year), albeit marginal declined in southern coastal regions (-0.15 °C/year) along with uneven rainfall patterns (1.42 mm/year). Moreover, long-term LULC change estimation divulges increased trends of urbanization (16.4 km2/year) together with vegetation growth (8.7 km2/year) from 2002 to 2022. Furthermore, this inquiry involves numerous environmental factors that influence the situation (elevation data, topographic wetness index, drainage density, proximity to water bodies, slope, and soil properties) as well as socio-economic attributes (population) to assess flood risk areas through the utilization of Analytical Hierarchy Process and overlay methods with assigned weights. The outcomes reveal nearly 55 percent of urban land is susceptible to flood in 2022, which were 45 and 37 percent in 2012 and 2002 separately. Additionally, 106 km2 of urban area is highly susceptible to inundation, whereas vegetation also occupies a significant proportion (52 km2). This thorough exploration offers a significant chance to formulate flood management and mitigation strategies tailored to specific regions during the era of climate change.

Citizen scientists' engagement in flood risk-related data collection: a case study in Bui River Basin, Vietnam

Time constraints, financial limitations, and inadequate tools restrict the flood data collection in undeveloped countries, especially in the Asian and African regions. Engaging citizens in data collection and contribution has the potential to overcome these challenges. This research demonstrates the applicability of citizen science for gathering flood risk-related data on residential flooding, land use information, and flood damage to paddy fields for the Bui River Basin in Vietnam. Locals living in or around flood-affected areas participated in data collection campaigns as citizen scientists using self-investigation or investigation with a data collection app, a web form, and paper forms. We developed a community-based rainfall monitoring network in the study area using low-cost rain gauges to draw locals' attention to the citizen science program. Fifty-nine participants contributed 594 completed questionnaires and measurements for four investigated subjects in the first year of implementation. Five citizen scientists were active participants and contributed more than 50 completed questionnaires or measurements, while nearly 50% of citizen scientists participated only one time. We compared the flood risk-related data obtained from citizen scientists with other independent data sources and found that the agreement between the two datasets on flooding points, land use classification, and the flood damage rate to paddy fields was acceptable (overall agreement above 73%). Rainfall monitoring activities encouraged the participants to proactively update data on flood events and land use situations during the data collection campaign. The study's outcomes demonstrate that citizen science can help to fill the gap in flood data in data-scarce areas.

Flood prediction and vulnerability assessment at the south-western region of Bangladesh

Flood is a frequent experience for the people living in Bangladesh, especially in the south-western region. But due to its complexity and multidisciplinary nature, flood management remains a very difficult task. This research focused on finding the most vulnerable areas to flooding for each polder within the Khulna and Satkhira districts since those areas can be identified as one of the most vulnerable areas to flooding. Water level data from fourteen stations of seven rivers (Sibsa, Rupsa-Pasur, Kobadak, Bhadra, Kobadak, Ichamati (Western Border), Betna-Kholpetua, and Satkhira Khal) were analyzed to calculate water levels for 2, 5, 10, 25, and 100-year return period applying normal distribution, extreme value type-I (EV-I), and log person type-III (LP-III) distribution methods. The EV-I distribution method was showing the best fit. The study revealed that station SW243 (Rupsa-Pasur River) in the Dacope region has the most extreme water level, station SW259 (Sibsa River) has the second-highest water level, and station SW254.5 (Satkhira Khal) in Satkhira Sadar has the third-highest water level for the return period of 100 years. A flood inundation map was prepared using the EV-I method's 10-year return period value. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to demonstrate the polders' vulnerability depending on several factors. Overall, polder15 (Ghubra, Satkhira) is the most vulnerable polder, while polder 33 and polder 32 respectively are the second and third most vulnerable polders for flooding, both located in the Dacope region.

Stormwater runoff reduction simulation model for urban flood restoration in coastal area

Urban floods caused by expanding impervious areas due to urban development and short-term heavy precipitation adversely affect many coastal cities. Notably, Seoul, one of the coastal cities that experiences acute urban floods, suffers annually from urban floods during the rainfall season. Consequently, to mitigate the impacts of urban floods in Seoul, we established flood-vulnerable areas as target areas where green infrastructure planning was applied using the Stormwater Runoff Reduction Module (SRRM). We selected the Gangdong, Gangbuk, and Dobong districts in Seoul, Korea, all of which demonstrate high flood vulnerability. Analyses in reducing the runoff amount and peak time delay effect were estimated by model simulation using the SRRM. The reduction in peak discharge for the whole area occurred in the following order: Gangdong district, then Gangbuk district, and lastly Dobong district. In contrast, the reduction in peak discharge per unit area was most prominent in Gangbuk district, followed by Dobong and Gangdong districts. However, the delay effect was almost identical in all target areas. Based on the simulation results in this study, we planned green infrastructure, including green roofs, infiltration storage facilities, and porous pavement. We believe that the results of this study can significantly enhance the efficiency of urban flood restoration and green infrastructure planning in coastal cities.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11069-022-05477-7.

Agricultural flood vulnerability assessment and risk quantification in Iowa

Agricultural lands are often impacted by flooding, which results in economic losses and causes food insecurity across the world. Due to the world's growing population, land-use alteration is frequently practiced meeting global demand. However, land-use changes combined with climate change have resulted in extreme hydrological changes (i.e., flooding and drought) in many areas. The state of Iowa has experienced several flooding events over the last couple of decades (e.g., 1993, 2008, 2014, 2016, 2019). Also, agribusiness is conducted across 85% of the state. In this research, we present a comprehensive assessment for agricultural flood risk in the state of Iowa utilizing most up-to-date flood inundation maps and crop layer raster datasets. The study analyzes the seasonal variation of the statewide agricultural flood risk by focusing on corn, soybean, and alfalfa crops. The results show that over $230 million average annualized losses estimated at statewide considering studied crop types. The crop frequency layers and corn suitability rating datasets are investigated to reveal regions with lower or higher productivity ratings. The study founds nearly half a million acres of cropland is under 2-year return period flood zone. Additionally, a data-driven flood model, Height Above the Nearest Drainage (HAND), is used to analyze performance against the FEMA maps. We found that the HAND flood maps performed with the correlation of 0.93 and 0.94 for 100-year and 500-year flood events regarding to the FEMA maps.

AHP and TOPSIS based flood risk assessment- a case study of the Navsari City, Gujarat, India

Flooding is one of the major natural catastrophic disasters that causes massive environmental and socioeconomic destruction. The magnitude of losses due to floods has prompted researchers to focus more on robust and comprehensive modeling approaches for alleviating flood damages. Recently developed multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) methods are being widely used to construct decision-making process more participatory, rational, and efficient. In this study, two statistical MCDM approaches, namely the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), have been employed to generate flood risk maps together with hazard and vulnerability maps in a GIS framework for Navsari city in Gujarat, India, to identify the vulnerable areas that are more susceptible to inundation during floods. The study area was divided into 10 sub areas (i.e., NC1 to NC10) to appraise the degree of flood hazard, vulnerability and risk intensities in terms of areal coverage and categorized under 5 intensity classes, viz., very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. A total of 14 flood indicators, seven each for hazard (i.e., elevation, slope, drainage density, distance to river, rainfall, soil, and flow accumulation) and vulnerability (i.e., population density, female population, land use, road network density, household, distance to hospital, and literacy rate) were considered for evaluating the flood risk. Flood risk coverage evaluated from the two approaches were compared with the flood extent computed from the actual flood data collected at 36 random locations. Results revealed that the TOPSIS approach estimated more precise flood risk coverage than the AHP approach, yielding high R² values, i.e., 0.78 to 0.95 and low RMSE values, i.e., 0.95 to 0.43, for all the 5 risk intensity classes. The sub areas identified under "very high" and "high" risk intensity classes (i.e., NC1, NC4, NC6, NC7, NC8, and NC10) call for immediate flood control measures with a view to palliate the extent of flood risk and consequential damages. The study demonstrates the potential of AHP and TOPSIS integrated with GIS towards precise identification of flood-prone areas for devising effective flood management strategies.

A systematic review of the flood vulnerability using geographic information system

The world has faced many disasters in recent years, but flood impacts have gained immense importance and attention due to their adverse effects. More than half of global flood destruction and damages occur in the Asia region, which causes losses of life, damage infrastructure, and creates panic conditions among the communities. To provide a better understanding of flood hazard management, flood vulnerability assessment is the primary objective. In this case, vulnerability is the central construct in flood analysis and assessment. Many researchers have defined different approaches and methods to understand vulnerability assessment and how geographic information systems assess the flood vulnerability and their associated risk. Geographic information systems track and predict the disaster trend and mitigate the risk and damages. This study systematically reviews the methodologies used to measure floods and their vulnerabilities by integrating geographic information system. Articles on flood vulnerability from 2010 to 2020 were selected and reviewed. Through the systematic review methodology of five research engines, the researchers discovered a difference in flood vulnerability assessment tools and techniques that can be bridged by integrating high-resolution data with a multidimensional vulnerability methodology. The study reviewed several vulnerability components and directly examined the shortcomings in flood vulnerability approaches at different levels. The research contributed that the indicator-based approach gives a better understanding of vulnerability assessment. The geographic information system provides an effective environment for mapping and precise analysis to mitigate the flood disaster.

Towards a flood vulnerability assessment of watershed using integration of decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory, analytical network process, and fuzzy theories

Among natural disasters, flood is increasingly recognized as a serious worldwide concern that causes the most damages in parts of agriculture, fishery, housing, and infrastructure and strongly affects economic and social activities. Universally, there is a requirement to increase our conception of flood vulnerability and to outstretch methods and tools to assess it. Spatial analysis of flood vulnerability is part of non-structural measures to prevent and reduce flood destructive effects. Hence, the current study proposes a methodology for assessing the flood vulnerability in the area of watershed in a severely flooded area of Iran (i.e., Kashkan Watershed). First interdependency analysis among criteria (including population density (PD), livestock density (LD), percentage of farmers and ranchers (PFR), distance to industrial and mining areas (DTIM), distance to tourist and cultural heritage areas (DTTCH), land use, distance to residential areas (DTRe), distance to road (DTR), and distance to stream (DTS)) was conducted using the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method. Hence, the cause and effect factors and their interaction levels in the whole network were investigated. Then, using the interdependency relationships among criteria, a network structure from flood vulnerability factors to determine their importance of factors was constructed, and the analytical network process (ANP) was applied. Finally, with the aim to overcome ambiguity, reduce uncertainty, and keep the data variability, an appropriate fuzzy membership function was applied to each layer by analyzing the relationship of each layer with flood vulnerability. Importance analysis indicated that land use (0.197), DTS (0.181), PD (0.180), DTRe (0.140), and DTR (0.138) were the most important variables. The flood vulnerability map produced by the integrated method of DEMATEL-ANP-fuzzy showed that about 19.2% of the region has a high to very high flood vulnerability.

Exposure and vulnerability estimation for modelling flood losses to commercial assets in Europe

Commercial assets comprise buildings, machinery and equipment, which are susceptible to floods. Existing damage models and exposure estimation methods for this sector have limited transferability between flood events and therefore limited potential for pan-European applications. In this study we introduce two methodologies aiming at improving commercial flood damage modelling: (1) disaggregation of economic statistics to obtain detailed building-level estimates of replacement costs of commercial assets; (2) a Bayesian Network (BN) damage model based primarily on post-disaster company surveys carried out in Germany. The BN model is probabilistic and provides probability distributions of estimated losses, and as such quantitative uncertainty information. The BN shows good accuracy of predictions of building losses, though overestimates machinery/equipment loss. To test its suitability for pan-European flood modelling, the BN was applied to three case studies, comprising a coastal flood in France (2010) and fluvial floods in Saxony (2013) and Italy (2014). Overall difference between modelled and reported average loss per company was only 2-19% depending on the case study. Additionally, the BN model achieved better results than six alternative damage models in those case studies (except for one model in the Italian case study). Further, our exposure estimates mostly resulted in better predictions of the damage models compared to previously published pan-European exposure data, which tend to overestimate exposure. All in all, the methods allow easy modelling of commercial flood losses in the whole of Europe, since they are applicable even if only publicly-available datasets are obtainable. The methods achieve a higher accuracy than alternative approaches, and inherently provide confidence intervals, which is particularly valuable for decision making under high uncertainty.

A basin-level analysis of flood risk in urban and periurban areas: A case study in the metropolitan region of Buenos Aires, Argentina

Flooding in urban and periurban areas is a complex phenomenon that results from the interplay between urban expansion and the dynamics of the hydrological system. Understanding both processes is essential to manage flood risk. This study aimed to analyze the flood risk in urban and periurban areas of the upper and middle basin of the Luján River (Metropolitan Region of Buenos Aires, Argentina) between 1985 and 2015. We assessed the factors that affect flood frequency by analyzing the precipitation variations obtained from meteorological data and applying hydrological models. We also used supervised classification of remote sensing imagery to detect increases in impervious surface areas that could enhance flooding. Furthermore, we combined both analyses to identify flood risk situations in the region. Our results indicated that maximum precipitation and hydrometric values remained stable during the study period, with a marked interannual variability due to the presence of dry and wet phases. During the dry phase (2011–2015), when flooding events were infrequent, there was a steady urban sprawl in the floodplain area and, as a result, more people would have subsequently become exposed to flood risk. Our results evidence the lack of regional policies to regulate the urban sprawl in flood risk regions.

Impact of land use transformation and anti-flood infrastructure on flooding in world heritage site and peri-urban area: A case study of Thailand's Ayutthaya province

This research investigates the impact of land use transformation and anti-flood structural infrastructure on flood situations in four flood-prone districts of Thailand's Ayutthaya: Phra Nakhon Si Ayudhya (PNSA), Bang Ban, Phak Hai, and Sena. PNSA is a UNESCO world heritage city and the cultural and economic hub of Ayutthaya. The finding showed that a large proportion of agricultural land was converted into commercial areas to accommodate economic development and population growth. Furthermore, construction of anti-flood structure infrastructure in PNSA increased flood intensity and duration in three neighboring districts as more floodwater was diverted to the peri-urban area. In addition, this research looks into the social impacts related to land use change and anti-flood structural infrastructure.

Modeling residential coastal flood vulnerability using finished-floor elevations and socio-economic characteristics

Densely populated coastal regions are vulnerable to threats associated with climate change and variability, especially storms. In the United States, millions of people are repeatedly at risk of flooding and because this number will only continue to grow, the identification of the intersection of social vulnerability and physical risk to flood inundation is essential for both coastal planning and adaptation purposes. Although a key tool to identify vulnerable populations, most vulnerability models are built at the county or coarser scales, thereby hindering the effectiveness of mitigation and adaptation planning at community scales, which are more socially and physically diverse than what county-scale analyses can reveal. We present an integrated social and physical model of vulnerability at the block-group level of geography using census data to measure social variability based population and housing data and physical exposure based on the intersection of finished floor elevation of all buildings in coastal North Carolina, USA with flood hazards maps. We identify, in a spatially-explicit manner and at multiple levels of governance, areas of high social vulnerability and their intersection with areas of high physical exposure to inundation. We found that in the 28 coastal counties of North Carolina, 45.3% of the structures within the 100-year floodplain were structurally exposed to potential damage from inundation. Supporting our hypothesized patterns of vulnerability to inundation, a significant clustering of highly vulnerable block-groups were located in Albemarle and Eastern Carolina coastal regions, yet high vulnerability outliers were also located at significant distance away from the highly physically-exposed coastline. Our findings suggest that the high-resolution block-group level analysis identified multiple levels of vulnerability to inundation at the sub-county scale and provide essential information for effective hazard mitigation within scales ranging from the community to transboundary governing bodies.