Projecting U.S. forest management, market, and carbon sequestration responses to a high-impact climate scenario

The impact of climate change on forest ecosystems remains uncertain, with wide variation in potential climate impacts across different radiative forcing scenarios and global circulation models, as well as potential variation in forest productivity impacts across species and regions. This study uses an empirical forest composition model to estimate the impact of climate factors (temperature and precipitation) and other environmental parameters on forest productivity for 94 forest species across the conterminous United States. The composition model is linked to a dynamic optimization model of the U.S. forestry sector to quantify economic impacts of a high warming scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) under six alternative climate projections and two socioeconomic scenarios. Results suggest that forest market impacts and consumer impacts could range from relatively large losses (-$2.6 billion) to moderate gain ($0.2 billion) per year across climate scenarios. Temperature-induced higher mortality and lower productivity for some forest types and scenarios, coupled with increasing economic demands for forest products, result in forest inventory losses by end of century relative to the current climate baseline (3%-23%). Lower inventories and reduced carbon sequestration capacity result in additional economic losses of up to approximately $4.1 billion per year. However, our results also highlight important adaptation mechanisms, such forest type changes and shifts in regional mill capacity that could reduce the impact of high impact climate scenarios.

New tree-ring data from Canadian boreal and hemi-boreal forests provide insight for improving the climate sensitivity of terrestrial biosphere models

Understanding boreal/hemi-boreal forest growth sensitivity to seasonal variations in temperature and water availability provides important basis for projecting the potential impacts of climate change on the productivity of these ecosystems. Our best available information currently comes from a limited number of field experiments and terrestrial biosphere model (TBM) simulations of varying predictive accuracy. Here, we assessed the sensitivity of annual boreal/hemi-boreal forest growth in Canada to yearly fluctuations in seasonal climate variables using a large tree-ring dataset and compared this to the climate sensitivity of annual net primary productivity (NPP) estimates obtained from fourteen TBMs. We found that boreal/hemi-boreal forest growth sensitivity to fluctuations in seasonal temperature and precipitation variables changed along a southwestern to northeastern gradient, with growth limited almost entirely by temperature in the northeast and west and by water availability in the southwest. We also found a lag in growth climate sensitivity, with growth largely determined by the climate during the summer prior to ring formation. Analyses of NPP sensitivity to the same climate variables produced a similar southwest to northeast gradient in growth climate sensitivity for NPP estimates from all but three TBMs. However, analyses of growth from tree-ring data and analyses of NPP from TBMs produced contrasting evidence concerning the key climate variables limiting growth. While analyses of NPP primarily indicated a positive relationship between growth and seasonal temperature, tree-ring analyses indicated negative growth relationships to temperature. Also, the positive effect of precipitation on NPP derived from most TBMs was weaker than the positive effect of precipitation on tree-ring based growth: temperature had a more important limiting effect on NPP than tree-ring data indicated. These mismatches regarding the key climate variables limiting growth suggested that characterization of tree growth in TBMs might need revision, particularly regarding the effects of stomatal conductance and carbohydrate reserve dynamics.

Changes in forest nitrogen cycling across deposition gradient revealed by δ15N in tree rings

Tree rings provide valuable insight into past environmental changes. This study aimed to evaluate perturbations in tree ring width (TRW) and δ¹⁵N alongside soil acidity and nutrient availability gradients caused by the contrasting legacy of air pollution (nitrogen [N] and sulphur [S] deposition) and tree species (European beech, Silver fir and Norway spruce). We found consistent declines of tree ring δ¹⁵N, which were temporarily unrelated to the changes in the TRW. The rate of δ¹⁵N change in tree rings was related to the contemporary foliar carbon (C) to phosphorus (P) ratio. This observation suggested that the long-term accumulation of ¹⁵N depleted N in tree rings, likely mediated by retained N from deposition, was restricted primarily to stands with currently higher P availability. The shifts observed in tree-ring δ¹⁵N and TRW suggest that acidic air pollution rather than changes in stand productivity determined alteration of N and C cycles. Stable N isotopes in tree rings provided helpful information on the trajectory of the N cycle over the last century with direct consequences for a better understanding of future interactions among N, P and C cycles in terrestrial ecosystems.

Phosphorus is the key soil indicator controlling productivity in planted Masson pine forests across subtropical China

Soil physiochemical properties are critical to understanding forest productivity and carbon (C) finance schemes in terrestrial ecosystems. However, few studies have focused on the effects of the soil physiochemical properties on the productivity in planted forests. This study was therefore conducted at 113 sampling plots located in planted Masson pine forests across subtropical China to test what and how the aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) would be explained by the soil physiochemical properties, stand attributes, and functional traits using regression analysis and structural equation modelling (SEM). Across subtropical China, the ANPP ranged from 1.79 to 14.04 Mg ha^-1 year^-1 among the plots, with an average value of 6.05 Mg ha^-1 year^-1. The variations in ANPP were positively related to the stand density, root phosphorus (P) content and soil total P content but were negatively related to the stand age, root C:P and N:P ratios. Among these factors, the combined effects of stand density, stand age and soil total P content explained 35% of the ANPP variations. The SEM results showed the indirect effect of the soil total P content via the root P content and C:P ratio on the ANPP and indirect effects of other soil properties (e.g., pH, clay, and bulk density) via the soil total P content and root functional traits (e.g., root P, C:P, and N:P) on the ANPP. By considering all possible variables and paths, the best-fitting SEM explained only 11-13% of the ANPP variations, which suggested that other factors may be more important in determining the productivity in planted forests. Overall, this study highlights that soil total P content should be used as a key soil indicator for determining the ANPP in planted Masson pine forests across subtropical China, and suggests that the root functional traits mediate the effects of soil properties on the ANPP.

Later springs green-up faster: the relation between onset and completion of green-up in deciduous forests of North America

In deciduous forests, spring leaf phenology controls the onset of numerous ecosystem functions. While most studies have focused on a single annual spring event, such as budburst, ecosystem functions like photosynthesis and transpiration increase gradually after budburst, as leaves grow to their mature size. Here, we examine the "velocity of green-up," or duration between budburst and leaf maturity, in deciduous forest ecosystems of eastern North America. We use a diverse data set that includes 301 site-years of phenocam data across a range of sites, as well as 22 years of direct ground observations of individual trees and 3 years of fine-scale high-frequency aerial photography, both from Harvard Forest. We find a significant association between later start of spring and faster green-up: - 0.47 ± 0.04 (slope ± 1 SE) days change in length of green-up for every day later start of spring within phenocam sites, - 0.31 ± 0.06 days/day for trees under direct observation, and - 1.61 ± 0.08 days/day spatially across fine-scale landscape units. To explore the climatic drivers of spring leaf development, we fit degree-day models to the observational data from Harvard Forest. We find that the default phenology parameters of the ecosystem model PnET make biased predictions of leaf initiation (39 days early) and maturity (13 days late) for red oak, while the optimized model has biases of 1 day or less. Springtime productivity predictions using optimized parameters are closer to results driven by observational data (within 1%) than those of the default parameterization (17% difference). Our study advances empirical understanding of the link between early and late spring phenophases and demonstrates that accurately modeling these transitions is important for simulating seasonal variation in ecosystem productivity.

Evidence that higher [CO2] increases tree growth sensitivity to temperature: a comparison of modern and paleo oaks

To test tree growth sensitivity to temperature under different ambient CO₂ concentrations, we determined stem radial growth rates as they relate to variation in temperature during the last deglacial period, and compare these to modern tree growth rates as they relate to spatial variation in temperature across the modern species distributional range. Paleo oaks were sampled from Northern Missouri, USA and compared to a pollen-based, high-resolution paleo temperature reconstruction from Northern Illinois, USA. Growth data were from 53 paleo bur oak log cross sections collected in Missouri. These oaks were preserved in river and stream sediments and were radiocarbon-dated to a period of rapid climate change during the last deglaciation (10.5 and 13.3 cal kyr BP). Growth data from modern bur oaks were obtained from increment core collections paired with USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis data collected across the Great Plains, Midwest, and Upper Great Lakes regions. For modern oaks growing at an average [CO₂] of 330 ppm, growth sensitivity to temperature (i.e., the slope of growth rate versus temperature) was about twice that of paleo oaks growing at an average [CO₂] of 230 ppm. These data help to confirm that leaf-level predictions that photosynthesis and thus growth will be more sensitive to temperature at higher [CO₂] in mature trees-suggesting that tree growth forest productivity will be increasingly sensitive to temperature under projected global warming and high-[CO₂] conditions.

Viewing forests from below: fine root mass declines relative to leaf area in aging lodgepole pine stands

In the continued quest to explain the decline in productivity and vigor with aging forest stands, the most poorly studied area relates to root system change in time. This paper measures the wood production, root and leaf area (and mass) in a chronosequence of fire-origin lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Loudon) stands consisting of four age classes (12, 21, 53, and ≥100 years), each replicated ~ five times. Wood productivity was greatest in the 53-year-old stands and then declined in the ≥100-year-old stands. Growth efficiency, the quantity of wood produced per unit leaf mass, steadily declined with age. Leaf mass and fine root mass plateaued between the 53- and ≥100-year-old stands, but leaf area index actually increased in the older stands. An increase in the leaf area index:fine root area ratio supports the idea that older stand are potentially limited by soil resources. Other factors contributing to slower growth in older stands might be lower soil temperatures and increased self-shading due to the clumped nature of crowns. Collectively, the proportionally greater reduction in fine roots in older stands might be the variable that predisposes these forests to be at a potentially greater risk of stress-induced mortality.

Density compensation in neotropical primate communities: evidence from 56 hunted and nonhunted Amazonian forests of varying productivity

Density compensation is a community-level phenomenon in which increases in the abundance of some species may offset the population decline, extirpation, or absence of other potentially interacting competitors. In this paper we examine the evidence for density compensation in neotropical primate assemblages using data from 56 hunted and nonhunted, but otherwise undisturbed, forest sites of Amazonia and the Guianan shields from which population density estimates are available for all diurnal primate species. We found good evidence of density compensation of the residual assemblage of nonhunted mid-sized species where the large-bodied (ateline) species had been severely reduced in numbers or driven to local extinction by subsistence hunters. Only weak evidence for density compensation, however, was detected in small-bodied species. These conclusions are based on the effects of ordinal measures of hunting pressure on the aggregate primate biomass across different size classes after controlling for the effects of forest type and productivity. These results are interpreted primarily in relation to patterns of niche partitioning between different primate functional groups or ecospecies. This study suggests that while overhunting drastically reduces the average body size in multi-species assemblages of forest vertebrates, depletion of large-bodied species is only partially offset (i.e. undercompensated) by smaller taxa.