Mathematical modelling of COVID-19: A case study of Italy

This manuscript describes a mathematical epidemiological model of COVID-19 to investigate the dynamics of this pandemic disease and we have fitted this model to the current COVID-19 cases in Italy. We have obtained the basic reproduction number which plays a crucial role on the stability of disease free equilibrium point. Backward bifurcation with respect to the cure rate of treatment occurs conditionally. It is clear from the sensitivity analysis that the developments of self immunities with proper maintaining of social distancing of the exposed and asymptomatic individuals play key role for controlling the disease. We have validated the model by considering the COVID-19 cases of Italy and the future situations of epidemicity in Italy have been predicted from the model. We have estimated the basic reproduction number for the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy and effective reproduction number has also been studied. Finally, an optimal control model has been formulated and solved to realize the positive impacts of adapting lock down by many countries for maintaining social distancing.

The burden & contributing factors of psychological distress across India during the COVID pandemic

The unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic spread rapidly and engulfing the entire world, forcing people to stay home, muting the hustle and bustle of modern world with tide of fear for contracting disease and death. This brutal disease has infected millions of people worldwide, many lost their job, world economies have ravaged and many more uncountable consequences.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the psychological distress due to COVID-19 outbreak and to determine contributing factors towards psychological distress.

METHOD

A cross-sectional survey was conducted between 12th May to 20th June 2020 & 1537 valid responses were received. Modified K10 scale was used to assess psychological distress. Binary logistic regression analysis was used to determine extent of relationship between the contributing factors and psychological distress scale by estimating the odds of having significant stress with P ≤ 0.05.

RESULT

A total of 1537 valid responses were obtained. The overall psychological distress score was 19.79 ± .75 which implies mild psychological distress. Analysis of degree of psychological distress revealed 815 (53.0%) with no psychological distress, 385 (25.0%) mild, 194 (12.6%) moderate and 143 respondents (9.3%) had severe degree of psychological distress. Females psychological distress was 1.448 times as compared to male (CI 0.191-10.986). The odds of having significant psychological distress for above 60 years as compared to 16-30 years. Shop owner & business man had more stress in compared to professionals (OR 1.176, CI 0.058-2.362). As compared to married, the psychological distress was 13.203 times higher among divorcee/separated (0.786-221.787) and 3.629 times higher among unmarried (0.376-35.054).

CONCLUSION

This study showed 39.2% of the subject had psychological distress which is quite high. So, government and other policy makers have to develop strategy to relieve psychological distress among Indian population.

Exploring Reproductive Health Impact of COVID 19 pandemic: In Depth Interviews with key stakeholders in Pakistan

Objective:

To explore the effects of COVID 19 on reproductive and child health services and gender relations.

Methods:

This is a Qualitative Exploratory Research. Due to lockdown, setting was online interviews on Zoom. Sampling was purposive. Five in-depth interviews were conducted in June 2020 followed by compilation of results and manuscript writing in July and August 2020.

Results:

Maternal Neonatal morbidity and mortality will rise as part of collateral damage of C19. As all routine services of maternity care, family planning, post abortion care and vaccination were also in lockdown. Baby boom, unwanted pregnancies, unsafe abortions and violence against women will be the secondary consequences of C19.

Conclusion:

Some critical services should never stop which include maternal and neonatal essential services. MNCH service continuity has to be maintained to optimize maternal neonatal health, prevent unwanted pregnancy and abortion. With appropriate standard operating procedures, and protective equipments, health facilities need to open. LHWs and community mobilisers with PPEs should continue services.

[Psychological stress during the COVID-19 pandemic: consequences for psychiatric patients and therapeutic implications]

BACKGROUND

The outbreak of the COVID-19 disease and the rapid spread of the inducing coronavirus SARS-CoV‑2 threatens not only people's physical health but also their mental health. Its influence on incidence and course of existing illnesses in the psychiatric outpatient sector in Germany is still unknown.

METHODS

The medical reports of 682 persons in psychiatric treatment were retrospectively investigated, regarding their subjective response to this pandemic and its clinical relevance.

RESULTS

Of the patients 60.5% (n = 378) experienced greater psychological stress, 14.5% (n = 99) reported fear of the SARS-CoV‑2 and the possible danger of infection, 25.5% (n = 174) reported fear resulting from the protective measures taken (lock down) and 4.3% (n = 29) reported fear of both. This differed significantly across diagnoses: people with anxiety disorders reported significantly greater stress as well as greater fear of the virus, whereas people with psychoses were significantly less affected than the other patients. Of the participants 43.7% (n = 132) were so strongly affected that acute treatment had to be implemented and 6.0% (n = 18) had to be referred to inpatient care.

DISCUSSION

People with mental illnesses are particularly vulnerable to the psychological strain of the COVID-19 pandemic. Long-term studies on the further course of disease will be necessary. Additional studies that test interventions to build resilience in this population will also be needed.

Study of COVID-19 pandemic in London (UK) from urban context

COVID-19 transmission in London city was discussed in this work from an urban context. The association between COVID-19 cases and climate indicators in London, UK were analysed statistically employing published data from national health services, UK and Time and Date AS based weather data. The climatic indicators included in the study were the daily averages of maximum and minimum temperatures, humidity, and wind speed. Pearson, Kendall, and Spearman rank correlation tests were selected for data analysis. The data was considered up to two different dates to study the climatic effect (10th May in the first study and then updated up to 16th of July in the next study when the rest of the data was available). The results were contradictory in the two studies and it can be concluded that climatic parameters cannot solely determine the changes in the number of cases in the pandemic. Distance from London to four other cities (Birmingham, Leeds, Manchester, and Sheffield) showed that as the distance from the epicentre of the UK (London) increases, the number of COVID-19 cases decrease. What should be the necessary measure to be taken to control the transmission in cities have been discussed.

How India is dealing with COVID-19 pandemic

India, which has the second-largest population in the world is suffering severely from COVID-19 disease. By May 18th, India investigated ∼1 lakh (0.1million) infected cases from COVID-19, and as of 11th July the cases equalled 8 lakhs. Social distancing and lockdown rules were employed in India, which however had an additional impact on the economy, human living, and environment. Where a negative impact was observed for the economy and human life, the environment got a positive one. How India dealt and can potentially deal with these three factors during and post COVID-19 situation has been discussed here.

Outcome of trauma and orthopaedic surgery at a UK District General Hospital during the Covid-19 pandemic

INTRODUCTION

There are suggestions that elective surgery performed during the incubation period of COVID-19 infection may cause an immediate impairment of cell-mediated immunity, leading to high morbidity and mortality. However is contrasting data about the associated mortality. Since the outbreak, our unit has maintained a prospective database recording Trauma and Orthopaedic surgical activity. Our aim was to share our experience of the first 3 months with prospective data on outcome of essential surgery during the covid-19 peak. Our focus in this report was on the mortality rate as services begin to open. Methods: We prospectively collected data during the peak of the pandemic in the UK, for fracture neck of femur patients (NOF) the most commonly performed surgical procedure and the most vulnerable during this period. We compared this Covid-19 cohort of NOFs against a cohort of NOF's during the same time in 2019 and another cohort of NOF's in 2020 outside the lockdown period to compare mortality rates and give a broader perspective.

RESULTS

During the period March 1, 2020 to May 31, 2020, total of 206 patients were operated. Ninety-four fracture NOF and another one hundred twelve essential surgical procedures were performed. In the NOF cohort, there were nine patients that died. Three of them were covid-19 positive, one was not tested and the rest five were covid-19 negative. There was no mortality reported in the non NOF group. Conclusion: In our unit, during the lock down period, mortality rate in patients undergoing fracture NOF was not significantly different from a similar cohort earlier in the year and similar period last year. We have not observed any mortality, to date in the Non NOF procedures carried out.

COVID-19 virus outbreak forecasting of registered and recovered cases after sixty day lockdown in Italy: A data driven model approach

Background

Till 31 March 2020, 105,792 COVID-19 cases were confirmed in Italy including 15,726 deaths which explains how worst the epidemic has affected the country. After the announcement of lockdown in Italy on 9 March 2020, situation was becoming stable since last days of March. In view of this, it is important to forecast the COVID-19 evaluation of Italy condition and the possible effects, if this lock down could continue for another 60 days.

Methods

COVID-19 infected patient data has extracted from the Italian Health Ministry website includes registered and recovered cases from mid February to end March. Adoption of seasonal ARIMA forecasting package with R statistical model was done.

Results

Predictions were done with 93.75% of accuracy for registered case models and 84.4% of accuracy for recovered case models. The forecasting of infected patients could be reach the value of 182,757, and recovered cases could be registered value of 81,635 at end of May.

Conclusions

This study highlights the importance of country lockdown and self isolation in control the disease transmissibility among Italian population through data driven model analysis. Our findings suggest that nearly 35% decrement of registered cases and 66% growth of recovered cases will be possible.