Explainable geospatial-artificial intelligence models for the estimation of PM2.5 concentration variation during commuting rush hours in Taiwan

PM2.5 concentrations are higher during rush hours at background stations compared to the average concentration across these stations. Few studies have investigated PM2.5 concentration and its spatial distribution during rush hours using machine learning models. This study employs a geospatial-artificial intelligence (Geo-AI) prediction model to estimate the spatial and temporal variations of PM2.5 concentrations during morning and dusk rush hours in Taiwan. Mean hourly PM2.5 measurements were collected from 2006 to 2020, and aggregated into morning (7 a.m.-9 a.m.) and dusk (4 p.m.-6 p.m.) rush-hour mean concentrations. The Geo-AI prediction model was generated by integrating kriging interpolation, land-use regression, machine learning, and a stacking ensemble approach. A forward stepwise variable selection method based on the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) index was used to identify the most influential variables. The performance of the Geo-AI models for morning and dusk rush hours had accuracy scores of 0.95 and 0.93, respectively and these results were validated, indicating robust model performance. Spatially, PM2.5 concentrations were higher in southwestern Taiwan for morning rush hours, and suburban areas for dusk rush hours. Key predictors included kriged PM2.5 values, SO2 concentrations, forest density, and the distance to incinerators for both morning and dusk rush hours. These PM2.5 estimates for morning and dusk rush hours can support the development of alternative commuting routes with lower concentrations.

On the origin and evolution of the dual oscillator model underlying the photoperiodic clockwork in the suprachiasmatic nucleus

Decades have now passed since Colin Pittendrigh first proposed a model of a circadian clock composed of two coupled oscillators, individually responsive to the rising and setting sun, as a flexible solution to the challenge of behavioral and physiological adaptation to the changing seasons. The elegance and predictive power of this postulation has stimulated laboratories around the world in searches to identify and localize such hypothesized evening and morning oscillators, or sets of oscillators, in insects, rodents, and humans, with experimental designs and approaches keeping pace over the years with technological advances in biology and neuroscience. Here, we recount the conceptual origin and highlight the subsequent evolution of this dual oscillator model for the circadian clock in the mammalian suprachiasmatic nucleus; and how, despite our increasingly sophisticated view of this multicellular pacemaker, Pittendrigh's binary conception has remained influential in our clock models and metaphors.

A Systematic Review of the Efficacy and Safety of Aspirin When Delivered at Different Medication Times for the Primary and Secondary Prevention of Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Diseases

PURPOSE

Effective antiplatelet therapy can significantly reduce the incidence and mortality rate of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. Aspirin is widely used in the secondary prevention of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases; however, there is widespread debate as to when patients should take an enteric-coated aspirin tablet on a daily basis. In the present study, we evaluated the efficacy and safety of different aspirin medication times (morning or before bedtime) in terms of the primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases using meta-analysis.

METHODS

Studies with randomized control trials (RCT) or crossover trials regarding to the usage of aspirin (morning or before bedtime) for the primary or secondary prevention of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were searched in Medline, EMbase, Cochrane Library, CNKI, Wanfang Data, VIP Database and CBM. Review Manager 5 (RevMan 5, v5.3), a Cochrane systematic reviews software, was used to perform meta-analysis based on the recommendation of the Cochrane Handbook for risk assessment tools.

RESULTS

Meta-analysis showed that taking low-dose aspirin tablets before bed reduced systolic and diastolic blood pressure compared with taking it in the morning. At the same time, the number of studies on platelet aggregation rate, C-reactive protein (CRP), serum nitric oxide (NO) or thromboxane B₂ (TXB₂) is too small to be reliable. However, there was a large heterogeneity across the studies. The quality of some studies was not high enough.

CONCLUSION

Additional blood pressure benefits can be achieved by taking aspirin before bedtime, but it does not affect its antiplatelet effect and does not pose a higher risk of bleeding.

Anopheles arabiensis and Anopheles funestus biting patterns in Dielmo, an area of low level exposure to malaria vectors

Background

In Dielmo, Senegal, the widespread use of long-lasting insecticidal nets has decreased both the incidence of malaria and the density of the Anopheles population. However, persistent low-level malaria transmission may hamper efforts to eliminate the disease. Therefore, continuous monitoring of the vector population is needed in order to improve knowledge of Anopheles biting behaviour and to readjust control interventions.

Methods

In 2015, Anopheles were collected every month for a whole year and each specimen was identified using morphological and molecular techniques. The biting pattern of each species was analysed according to night (7 pm–7am) and morning (7am–11am) periods, the place of biting and the season. The ELISA CSP technique was used to assess the Plasmodium falciparum sporozoite rate to evaluate the entomological inoculation rate (EIR).

Results

Anopheles arabiensis and Anopheles funestus sensu stricto were found to be the main vectors biting humans. Overall, the biting rate was low, at 3.84bites per night (bpn) and 1.27 bites per morning (bpm), respectively (IRR = 3.04, CI [1.84–5.00], p < 0.001). The EIR was 2.51 and 5.03 infectious bites per year during the night and morning, respectively. During the night, the An. arabiensis and An. funestus biting rate was 1.81 bpn and 1.71 bpn, respectively (IRR = 0.95, CI [0.46–1.92], p = 0.88). During the morning, their density decreased to 0.51 bpm and 0.73 bpm for An. arabiensis and An. funestus, respectively (IRR = 1.47, CI [0.58–3.71], p = 0.41). During the night and the morning, no specific trend of indoor or outdoor biting was observed in the dry and rainy season for both vectors.

Conclusion

This study highlighted low level Anopheles nocturnal and diurnal biting and the associated risk of malaria transmission. It showed also the influence of the season on the indoor and outdoor biting pattern, indicating that the human population could be exposed all year round to a low level of Anopheles bites. Control programmes should increase awareness of the use of bed nets throughout the year and promote the development and implementation of complimentary tools to target Anopheles biting shortly after dawn when people are still indoors and outside the bed nets.

Carbohydrate restriction in the morning increases weight loss effect of a hypocaloric Mediterranean type diet: a randomized, parallel group dietary intervention in overweight and obese subjects

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to examine the effect of carbohydrate restriction in the morning in the framework of a hypocaloric Mediterranean diet on weight loss and metabolic parameters.

METHODS

Seventy overweight/obese individuals were randomized to two hypocaloric dietary regimens: one Mediterranean diet (Med-D) and one morning carbohydrate-restriction diet (MCR-D). Participants assigned to the MCR-D were permitted to consume a breakfast low in carbohydrate content, whereas typical Mediterranean morning meals were allowed in the Med-D group. Both diets were identical from midday on. Participants were followed over a period of 2 mo.

RESULTS

Individuals in both groups achieved significant reductions in body weight, body mass index, waist circumference, and body fat mass. These reductions were more pronounced in the MCR-D than in the Med-D group (all P < 0.001). More participants in the MCR-D group achieved loss of 5% to 10% of body weight by the end of the first month, as well as 5% to 10% and >10% of body weight by the end of the second month (all P < 0.001). All participants achieved loss of ≥5% baseline body weight by the end of the intervention. Both groups achieved similar reductions in fasting serum glucose, glycated hemoglobin, and serum triacylglycerols as well as improvement in insulin sensitivity. Individuals in the Med-D group showed reductions in total and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, whereas no such effect was observed in the MCR-D group.

CONCLUSIONS

Integration of morning carbohydrate restriction into a Mediterranean-type hypocaloric diet resulted in greater weight loss while retaining metabolic benefits in glycemia-related parameters.

Physical activity in the morning and afternoon is lower in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease with morning symptoms

Background

Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) experience symptoms that vary over the day. Symptoms at the start of the day might influence physical activity during the rest of the day. Therefore, physical activity during the course of the day was studied in patients with low and high morning symptom scores.

Methods

This cross-sectional observational study included patients with moderate to very severe COPD. Morning symptoms were evaluated with the PRO-morning COPD Symptoms Questionnaire (range 0–60); the median score was used to create two groups (low and high morning symptom scores). Physical activity was examined with an accelerometer. Activity parameters during the night, morning, afternoon and evening were compared between patients with low and high morning symptom scores using independent t-tests or Mann-Whitney U tests.

Results

Seventy nine patients were included. Patients were aged (mean ± SD) 65.6 ± 8.8 years with a mean forced expiratory volume in 1 s of 55 ± 17%predicted. Patients with low morning symptom scores (score < 17.0) took more steps in the afternoon (p = 0.015) and morning (p = 0.030). There were no significant differences during the evening and night.

Conclusion

Patients with high morning symptom scores took significantly fewer steps in the morning and afternoon than those with low morning symptom scores. Prospective studies are needed to prove causality between morning symptoms and physical activity during different parts of the day.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12931-018-0749-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Development of the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease morning symptom diary (COPD-MSD)

BACKGROUND

The morning tends to be the most difficult time of day for many patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) when symptoms can limit one's ability to perform even simple activities. Morning symptoms have been linked to higher levels of work absenteeism, thereby increasing the already substantial economic burden associated with COPD. A validated patient-reported outcome (PRO) instrument designed to capture morning symptoms will allow for a more comprehensive approach to the evaluation of treatment benefit in COPD clinical trials.

METHODS

A qualitative interview study was conducted among a sample of symptomatic adults with COPD. Concept elicitation interviews (n = 35) were conducted to identify COPD morning symptoms, followed by cognitive interviews (n = 21) to ensure patient comprehension of the items, instructions and response options of the draft COPD Morning Symptom Diary (COPD-MSD). All interview transcript data were coded using ATLAS.ti software for content analysis.

RESULTS

Mean age of the concept elicitation and cognitive interview sample was 65.0 years (±7.5) and 62.3 years (±8.3), respectively. The study sample represented the full range of COPD severity (Global Initiative for Chronic Lung Disease [GOLD] classifications I-IV) and included a mix of racial backgrounds, employment status and educational achievement. During the concept elicitation interviews, the three most frequently reported morning symptoms were shortness of breath (n = 35/35; 100 %), phlegm/mucus (n = 31/35; 88.6 %), and cough (n = 30/35; 85.7 %). A group of clinical and instrument development experts convened to review the concept elicitation data and develop the initial 32-item draft COPD-MSD. Cognitive interviews indicated subjects found the draft COPD-MSD to be comprehensive, clear, and easy to understand. The COPD-MSD underwent minor editorial revisions and streamlining based on cognitive interviews and input from the experts to yield the final 19-item daily diary.

CONCLUSIONS

This study supports the content validity of the new COPD-MSD and positions the diary for quantitative psychometric testing.

Patient's perception of symptoms related to morning activity in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: the SYMBOL Study

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) experience more problematic respiratory symptoms and have more trouble performing daily activities in the morning. The aim of this study was to assess the perception of COPD symptoms related to morning activities in patients with severe airflow limitation.

METHODS

Data of 133 patients with severe airflow limitation were analyzed in a prospective, non-interventional study. A clinical symptom questionnaire was completed by patients at baseline. In patients having morning symptoms, defined by at least one or more prominent or aggravating symptom during morning activities, a morning activity questionnaire was also completed at baseline and following 2 months of COPD treatment.

RESULTS

The most frequently reported COPD symptom was breathlessness (90.8%). Morning symptoms were reported in 76 (57%) patients; these had more frequent and severe clinical COPD symptoms. The most frequently reported morning activity was getting out of bed (82.9%). The long acting muscarinic antagonist (odds ratio [OR], 6.971; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.317 to 11.905) and chest tightness (OR, 0.075; 95% CI, 0.011 to 0.518) were identified as significantly related to absence of morning symptoms. There was no significant correlation between the degree of forced expiratory volume in 1 second improvement and severity score differences of all items of morning activity after 2-month treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Fifty-seven percent of COPD patients with severe airflow limitation have morning symptoms that limit their morning activities. These patients also have more prevalent and severe COPD symptoms. The results of this study therefore provide valuable information for the development of patient-reported outcomes in COPD.