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Gehringer CK, Martin GP, Hyrich KL, Verstappen SMM, Sexton J, Kristianslund EK, Provan SA, Kvien TK, Sergeant JC. Developing and externally validating multinomial prediction models for methotrexate treatment outcomes in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: results from an international collaboration. J Clin Epidemiol 2024; 166:111239. [PMID: 38072179 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2023.111239] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2023] [Revised: 11/23/2023] [Accepted: 12/05/2023] [Indexed: 01/01/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES In rheumatology, there is a clinical need to identify patients at high risk (>50%) of not responding to the first-line therapy methotrexate (MTX) due to lack of disease control or discontinuation due to adverse events (AEs). Despite this need, previous prediction models in this context are at high risk of bias and ignore AEs. Our objectives were to (i) develop a multinomial model for outcomes of low disease activity and discontinuing due to AEs 6 months after starting MTX, (ii) update prognosis 3-month following treatment initiation, and (iii) externally validate these models. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING A multinomial model for low disease activity (submodel 1) and discontinuing due to AEs (submodel 2) was developed using data from the UK Rheumatoid Arthritis Medication Study, updated using landmarking analysis, internally validated using bootstrapping, and externally validated in the Norwegian Disease-Modifying Antirheumatic Drug register. Performance was assessed using calibration (calibration-slope and calibration-in-the-large), and discrimination (concordance-statistic and polytomous discriminatory index). RESULTS The internally validated model showed good calibration in the development setting with a calibration-slope of 1.01 (0.87, 1.14) (submodel 1) and 0.83 (0.30, 1.34) (submodel 2), and moderate discrimination with a c-statistic of 0.72 (0.69, 0.74) and 0.53 (0.48, 0.59), respectively. Predictive performance decreased after external validation (calibration-slope 0.78 (0.64, 0.93) (submodel 1) and 0.86 (0.34, 1.38) (submodel 2)), which may be due to differences in disease-specific characteristics and outcome prevalence. CONCLUSION We addressed previously identified methodological limitations of prediction models for outcomes of MTX therapy. The multinomial approach predicted outcomes of disease activity more accurately than AEs, which should be addressed in future work to aid implementation into clinical practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Celina K Gehringer
- Division of Musculoskeletal and Dermatological Sciences, Centre for Epidemiology Versus Arthritis, Centre for Musculoskeletal Research, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK; Centre for Biostatistics, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
| | - Glen P Martin
- Division of Informatics, Imaging and Data Sciences, Centre for Health Informatics, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Kimme L Hyrich
- Division of Musculoskeletal and Dermatological Sciences, Centre for Epidemiology Versus Arthritis, Centre for Musculoskeletal Research, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK; NIHR Manchester Biomedical Research Centre, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, Manchester, UK
| | - Suzanne M M Verstappen
- Division of Musculoskeletal and Dermatological Sciences, Centre for Epidemiology Versus Arthritis, Centre for Musculoskeletal Research, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK; NIHR Manchester Biomedical Research Centre, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, Manchester, UK
| | - Joseph Sexton
- Center for Treatment of Rheumatic and Musculoskeletal Diseases (REMEDY), Diakonhjemmet Hospital, Oslo, Norway
| | - Eirik K Kristianslund
- Center for Treatment of Rheumatic and Musculoskeletal Diseases (REMEDY), Diakonhjemmet Hospital, Oslo, Norway
| | - Sella A Provan
- Center for Treatment of Rheumatic and Musculoskeletal Diseases (REMEDY), Diakonhjemmet Hospital, Oslo, Norway
| | - Tore K Kvien
- Center for Treatment of Rheumatic and Musculoskeletal Diseases (REMEDY), Diakonhjemmet Hospital, Oslo, Norway; Faculty of Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - Jamie C Sergeant
- Division of Musculoskeletal and Dermatological Sciences, Centre for Epidemiology Versus Arthritis, Centre for Musculoskeletal Research, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK; Centre for Biostatistics, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
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