Using gravity model to make store closing decisions: A data driven approach

Many studies propose methods for finding the best location for new stores and facilities, but few studies address the store closing problem. As a result of the recent COVID-19 pandemic, many companies have been facing financial issues. In this situation, one of the most common solutions to prevent loss is to downsize by closing one or more chain stores. Such decisions are usually made based on single-store performance; therefore, the under-performing stores are subject to closures. This study first proposes a multiplicative variation of the well-known Huff gravity model and introduces a new attractiveness factor to the model. Then a forward-backward approach is used to train the model and predict customer response and revenue loss after the hypothetical closure of a particular store from a chain. In this research the department stores in New York City are studied using large-scale spatial, mobility, and spending datasets. The case study results suggest that the stores recommended being closed under the proposed model may not always match the single store performance, and emphasizes the fact that the performance of a chain is a result of interaction among the stores rather than a simple sum of their performance considered as isolated and independent units. The proposed approach provides managers and decision-makers with new insights into store closing decisions and will likely reduce revenue loss due to store closures.

Reduced COVID-19 hospitalizations among New York City residents following age-based SARS-CoV-2 vaccine eligibility: Evidence from a regression discontinuity design

BACKGROUND

In clinical trials, several SARS-CoV-2 vaccines were shown to reduce risk of severe COVID-19 illness. Local, population-level, real-world evidence of vaccine effectiveness is accumulating. We assessed vaccine effectiveness for community-dwelling New York City (NYC) residents using a quasi-experimental, regression discontinuity design, leveraging a period (January 12-March 9, 2021) when ≥ 65-year-olds were vaccine-eligible but younger persons, excluding essential workers, were not.

METHODS

We constructed segmented, negative binomial regression models of age-specific COVID-19 hospitalization rates among 45-84-year-old NYC residents during a post-vaccination program implementation period (February 21-April 17, 2021), with a discontinuity at age 65 years. The relationship between age and hospitalization rates in an unvaccinated population was incorporated using a pre-implementation period (December 20, 2020-February 13, 2021). We calculated the rate ratio (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for the interaction between implementation period (pre or post) and age-based eligibility (45-64 or 65-84 years). Analyses were stratified by race/ethnicity and borough of residence. Similar analyses were conducted for COVID-19 deaths.

RESULTS

Hospitalization rates among 65-84-year-olds decreased from pre- to post-implementation periods (RR 0.85, 95% CI: 0.74-0.97), controlling for trends among 45-64-year-olds. Accordingly, an estimated 721 (95% CI: 126-1,241) hospitalizations were averted. Residents just above the eligibility threshold (65-66-year-olds) had lower hospitalization rates than those below (63-64-year-olds). Racial/ethnic groups and boroughs with higher vaccine coverage generally experienced greater reductions in RR point estimates. Uncertainty was greater for the decrease in COVID-19 death rates (RR 0.85, 95% CI: 0.66-1.10).

CONCLUSION

The vaccination program in NYC reduced COVID-19 hospitalizations among the initially age-eligible ≥ 65-year-old population by approximately 15% in the first eight weeks. The real-world evidence of vaccine effectiveness makes it more imperative to improve vaccine access and uptake to reduce inequities in COVID-19 outcomes.

Persistent disparities in SARS-CoV-2 test percent positivity by neighborhood in New York City, March 1-July 25, 2020

PURPOSE

To examine neighborhood-level disparities in SARS-CoV-2 molecular test percent positivity in New York City (NYC) by demographics and socioeconomic status over time to better understand COVID-19 inequities.

METHODS

Across 177 neighborhoods, we calculated the Spearman correlation of neighborhood characteristics with SARS-CoV-2 molecular test percent positivity during March 1-July 25, 2020 by five periods defined by trend in case counts: increasing, declining, and three plateau periods to account for differential testing capacity and reopening status.

RESULTS

Percent positivity was positively correlated with neighborhood racial and ethnic characteristics and socioeconomic status, including the proportion of the population who were Latino and Black non-Latino, uninsured, Medicaid enrollees, transportation workers, or had low educational attainment. Correlations were generally consistent over time despite increasing testing rates. Neighborhoods with high proportions of these correlates had median percent positivity values of 62.6%, 28.7%, 6.4%, 2.8%, and 2.2% in the five periods, respectively, compared with 40.6%, 11.7%, 1.7%, 0.9%, and 1.0% in neighborhoods with low proportions of these correlates.

CONCLUSIONS

Disparities in SARS-CoV-2 molecular test percent positivity persisted in disadvantaged neighborhoods during multiple phases of the first few months of the COVID-19 epidemic in NYC. Mitigation of the COVID-19 burden is still urgently needed in disproportionately affected communities.

An online randomized trial of healthy default beverages and unhealthy beverage restrictions on children's menus

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Healthy default beverage policies have been enacted in several U.S. municipalities.

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Effects of such policies or beverage restrictions on children’s menus are unknown.

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Parents viewed and ordered children’s meals from one of three menu conditions.

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Defaults and restrictions did not reduce beverage calories ordered in our experiment.

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More robust legislation may be needed, such as implementing healthy food defaults.

Several U.S. jurisdictions have adopted policies requiring healthy beverage defaults on children’s menus, but it is unknown whether such policies or restrictions leads to fewer calories ordered. We recruited 479 caregivers of children for an online choice experiment and instructed participants to order dinner for their youngest child (2–6 years) from two restaurant menus. Participants were randomly assigned to one type of menu: 1) standard beverages on children’s menus (Control; n = 155); 2) healthy beverages on children’s menus (water, milk, or 100% juice), with unhealthy beverages available as substitutions (Default; n = 162); or 3) healthy beverages on children’s menus, with no unhealthy beverage substitutions (Restriction; n = 162). We used linear regression with bootstrapping to examine differences between conditions in calories ordered from beverages. Secondary outcomes included percent of participants ordering unhealthy beverages (full-calorie soda, diet soda, and/or sugar-sweetened fruit drinks) and calories from unhealthy beverages. Calories ordered from beverages did not differ across conditions at Chili’s [Default: 97.6 (SD = 69.8); p = 0.82; Restriction: 102.7 (SD = 71.5); p = 0.99; Control: 99.4 (SD = 72.7)] or McDonald’s [Default: 90.2 (SD = 89.1); p = 0.55; Restriction: 89.0 (SD = 81.0); p = 0.94; Control: 96.5 (SD = 95.2)]. There were no differences in the percent of orders or calories ordered from unhealthy beverages. Though Restriction participants ordered fewer calories from full-calorie soda [(3.0 (SD = 21.6)] relative to Control participants [13.4 (SD = 52.1); p = 0.04)] at Chili’s, we observed no such difference between Default and Control participants, or across McDonald’s conditions. Overall, there was no effect of healthy default beverages or restrictions in reducing total calories ordered from unhealthy beverages for children in our experiment.

Update on the spectrum of histoplasmosis among hispanic patients presenting to a New York City municipal hospital: A contemporary case series

Histoplasma capsulatum is the most common endemic mycosis worldwide. Although most of the globe's largest urban hubs fall outside this organism's regions of endemicity, clinicians practicing in a metropolis like New York City or Los Angeles must nevertheless remain vigilant for histoplasmosis because of the large immigrant population that is served by its hospitals. H. capsulatum infection ranges from asymptomatic pulmonary infection to life-threatening diffuse pneumonia with dissemination. The early years of the AIDS epidemic first introduced U.S. clinicians working in areas previously unfamiliar with histoplasmosis to newly immunocompromised patients from endemic regions presenting with disseminated H. capsulatum originally acquired in their home countries. Improvement in HIV prevention and therapeutics has reduced the frequency of such cases. Herein we report three cases of histoplasmosis encountered in our New York City institution over the last three years to emphasize that awareness of this infection remains mandatory for the frontline urban clinician.

Rationale, design and respondent characteristics of the 2013-2014 New York City Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NYC HANES 2013-2014)

PURPOSE

Capacity to monitor non-communicable diseases (NCDs) at state or local levels is limited. Emerging approaches include using biomeasures and electronic health record (EHR) data. In 2004, New York City (NYC) performed a population-based health study on adult residents using biomeasures (NYC Health and Nutrition Examination Study, or NYC HANES), modeled after NHANES. A second NYC HANES was launched in 2013 to examine change over time, evaluate municipal policies, and validate a proposed EHR-based surveillance system. We describe the rationale and methods of NYC HANES 2013-2014.

METHODS

NYC HANES was a population-based, cross-sectional survey of NYC adults using three-stage cluster sampling. Between August 2013 and June 2014, selected participants completed a health interview and physical exam (blood pressure, body mass index, and waist circumference). Fasting biomeasures included diabetes, lipid profiles, kidney function, environmental biomarkers, and select infectious diseases.

RESULTS

Of the 3065 households approached, 2742 were eligible and 1827 were successfully screened (67%). A total of 1524 of eligible participants completed the survey (54%), for an overall response rate of 36%.

CONCLUSION

Completing a second NYC HANES a decade after the first study affords an opportunity to understand changes in prevalence, awareness and control of NCDs and evaluate municipal efforts to manage them.