Associations between multiple urinary metals and the risk of hypertension in community-dwelling older adults

Although metal exposure has been associated with hypertension, the conclusions remain controversial, and studies investigating the predictive effect of multiple metals on hypertension are limited. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the nonlinear dose-response relationship between a single urinary metal and the risk of hypertension, and to assess the predictive effect of multiple urinary metals on hypertension. Of the Yinchuan community-dwelling elderly cohort launched in 2020, 3,733 participants (803 with hypertension and 2,930 without hypertension) were analysed in this study, and the concentrations of 13 metal elements in urine were measured. We found that urinary vanadium (odds ratio (OR): 1.16, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-1.25), molybdenum (OR: 1.08, 95% CI: 1.01-1.16), and tellurium (OR: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.06-1.22) were associated with higher risk of hypertension, whereas iron (OR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.85-0.98) and strontium (0.92, 95% CI: 0.85-0.99) were significantly associated with lower risk of hypertension. Restricted cubic splines analysis was conducted in patients with iron concentrations of ≥ 15.48 μg/g and ≤ 399.41 μg/g and a strontium concentration of ≤ 69.41 μg/g, results showed that the risk of hypertension decreased gradually as the urinary concentrations of these metals increased. With an increase in the vanadium concentration in urine, the risk of hypertension gradually increased. In patients with a molybdenum concentration of ≥ 56.82 μg/g and a tellurium concentration of ≥ 21.98 μg/g, the risk of hypertension gradually decreased as the urinary concentrations of these metals increased. Predictive scores based on the 13 metallic elements were significantly associated with a higher risk of hypertension (OR: 1.34 (95% CI: 1.25-1.45). After additionally including urinary metal concentrations as a parameter variable in the traditional hypertension risk assessment model, integrated discrimination and net reclassification increased by 8.00% (P < 0.001) and 2.41% (P < 0.001), respectively. Urinary vanadium, Mo, and Te concentrations were associated with a higher risk of hypertension, while iron and strontium concentrations were associated with a lower risk of hypertension. Multiple urinary metal concentrations can significantly improve the predictive ability of traditional hypertension risk-assessment models.

Effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of mumps and models for prediction, China

BACKGROUND

Mumps is an acute respiratory infectious disease with obvious regional and seasonal differences. Exploring the impact of climate factors on the incidence of mumps and predicting its incidence trend on this basis could effectively control the outbreak and epidemic of mumps.

METHODS

Considering the great differences of climate in the vast territory of China, this study divided the Chinese mainland into seven regions according to the administrative planning criteria, data of Mumps were collected from the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System, ARIMA model and ARIMAX model with meteorological factors were established to predict the incidence of mumps.

RESULTS

In this study, we found that precipitation, air pressure, temperature, and wind speed had an impact on the incidence of mumps in most regions of China and the incidence of mumps in the north and southwest China was more susceptible to climate factors. Considering meteorological factors, the average relative error of ARIMAX model was 10.87%, which was lower than ARIMA model (15.57%).

CONCLUSIONS

Meteorology factors were the important factors which can affect the incidence of mumps, ARIMAX model with meteorological factors could better simulate and predict the incidence of mumps in China, which has certain reference value for the prevention and control of mumps.