Clinical phenotypes of cardiogenic shock survivors: insights into late host responses and long-term outcomes

AIMS

An elevated risk of adverse events persists for years in cardiogenic shock (CS) survivors with high mortality rate and physical/mental disability. This study aims to link clinical CS-survivor phenotypes with distinct late host-response patterns at intensive care unit (ICU) discharge and long-term outcomes using model-based clustering.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In the original prospective, observational, international French and European Outcome Registry in Intensive Care Units (FROG-ICU) study, ICU patients with CS on admission were identified (N = 228). Among them, 173 were discharged alive from the ICU and included in the current study. Latent class analysis was applied to identify distinct CS-survivor phenotypes at ICU discharge using 15 readily available clinical and laboratory variables. The primary endpoint was 1 year of mortality after ICU discharge. Secondary endpoints were readmission and physical/mental disability [short form-36 questionnaire (SF-36) score] within 1 year after ICU discharge. Two distinct phenotypes at ICU discharge were identified (A and B). Patients in Phenotype B (38%) were more anaemic and had higher circulating levels of lactate, sustained kidney injury, and persistent elevation in plasma markers of inflammation, myocardial fibrosis, and endothelial dysfunction compared with Phenotype A. They had also a higher rate of non-ischaemic origin of CS and right ventricular dysfunction on admission. CS survivors in Phenotype B had higher 1 year of mortality compared with Phenotype A (P = 0.045, Kaplan-Meier analysis). When adjusted for traditional risk factors (i.e. age, severity of illness, and duration of ICU stay), Phenotype B was independently associated with 1 year of mortality [adjusted hazard ratio = 2.83 (95% confidence interval 1.21-6.60); P = 0.016]. There was a significantly lower physical quality of life in Phenotype B patients at 3 months (i.e. SF-36 physical component score).

CONCLUSIONS

A phenotype with sustained inflammation, myocardial fibrosis, and endothelial dysfunction at ICU discharge was identified from readily available data and was independently associated with poor long-term outcomes in CS survivors.

External validation of the modified sepsis renal angina index for prediction of severe acute kidney injury in children with septic shock

BACKGROUND

Acute kidney injury (AKI) occurs commonly in pediatric septic shock and increases morbidity and mortality. Early identification of high-risk patients can facilitate targeted intervention to improve outcomes. We previously modified the renal angina index (RAI), a validated AKI prediction tool, to improve specificity in this population (sRAI). Here, we prospectively assess sRAI performance in a separate cohort.

METHODS

A secondary analysis of a prospective, multicenter, observational study of children with septic shock admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit from 1/2019 to 12/2022. The primary outcome was severe AKI (≥ KDIGO Stage 2) on Day 3 (D3 severe AKI), and we compared predictive performance of the sRAI (calculated on Day 1) to the original RAI and serum creatinine elevation above baseline (D1 SCr > Baseline +). Original renal angina fulfillment (RAI +) was defined as RAI ≥ 8; sepsis renal angina fulfillment (sRAI +) was defined as RAI ≥ 20 or RAI 8 to < 20 with platelets < 150 × 103/µL.

RESULTS

Among 363 patients, 79 (22%) developed D3 severe AKI. One hundred forty (39%) were sRAI + , 195 (54%) RAI + , and 253 (70%) D1 SCr > Baseline + . Compared to sRAI-, sRAI + had higher risk of D3 severe AKI (RR 8.9, 95%CI 5-16, p < 0.001), kidney replacement therapy (KRT) (RR 18, 95%CI 6.6-49, p < 0.001), and mortality (RR 2.5, 95%CI 1.2-5.5, p = 0.013). sRAI predicted D3 severe AKI with an AUROC of 0.86 (95%CI 0.82-0.90), with greater specificity (74%) than D1 SCr > Baseline (36%) and RAI + (58%). On multivariable regression, sRAI + retained associations with D3 severe AKI (aOR 4.5, 95%CI 2.0-10.2, p < 0.001) and need for KRT (aOR 5.6, 95%CI 1.5-21.5, p = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Prediction of severe AKI in pediatric septic shock is important to improve outcomes, allocate resources, and inform enrollment in clinical trials examining potential disease-modifying therapies. The sRAI affords more accurate and specific prediction than context-free SCr elevation or the original RAI in this population.

Identifying clinical subtypes in sepsis-survivors with different one-year outcomes: a secondary latent class analysis of the FROG-ICU cohort

BACKGROUND

Late mortality risk in sepsis-survivors persists for years with high readmission rates and low quality of life. The present study seeks to link the clinical sepsis-survivors heterogeneity with distinct biological profiles at ICU discharge and late adverse events using an unsupervised analysis.

METHODS

In the original FROG-ICU prospective, observational, multicenter study, intensive care unit (ICU) patients with sepsis on admission (Sepsis-3) were identified (N = 655). Among them, 467 were discharged alive from the ICU and included in the current study. Latent class analysis was applied to identify distinct sepsis-survivors clinical classes using readily available data at ICU discharge. The primary endpoint was one-year mortality after ICU discharge.

RESULTS

At ICU discharge, two distinct subtypes were identified (A and B) using 15 readily available clinical and biological variables. Patients assigned to subtype B (48% of the studied population) had more impaired cardiovascular and kidney functions, hematological disorders and inflammation at ICU discharge than subtype A. Sepsis-survivors in subtype B had significantly higher one-year mortality compared to subtype A (respectively, 34% vs 16%, p < 0.001). When adjusted for standard long-term risk factors (e.g., age, comorbidities, severity of illness, renal function and duration of ICU stay), subtype B was independently associated with increased one-year mortality (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 1.74 (95% CI 1.16-2.60); p = 0.006).

CONCLUSIONS

A subtype with sustained organ failure and inflammation at ICU discharge can be identified from routine clinical and laboratory data and is independently associated with poor long-term outcome in sepsis-survivors. Trial registration NCT01367093; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01367093 .

Designing an ARDS trial for 2020 and beyond: focus on enrichment strategies

With the exception of a few successes in trials of supportive care, the majority of interventional clinical trials for acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) have not led to new therapies. To improve the likelihood of benefit from clinical trial interventions in ARDS, clinical trial design must be improved. To optimize trial design, many factors need to be considered including the type of therapy to be tested, the type of trial (phase 2 or 3), how patients will be selected, primary and secondary end-points, and strategy for conduct of the trial, including potential newer trial designs such as platform or adaptive trials. Of these, optimization of patient selection is central to the likelihood of success and is particularly relevant in ARDS, which is a heterogeneous clinical syndrome, not a homogeneous disease. Recent advances including improved understanding of pathophysiologic mechanisms and better tools for outcome prediction in ARDS should facilitate both predictive and prognostic enrichment. This commentary focuses on new information and novel methods for prognostic and predictive enrichment that may be useful to optimize patient selection and increase the likelihood of positive clinical trials in ARDS.

Plasma sTNFR1 and IL8 for prognostic enrichment in sepsis trials: a prospective cohort study

Background

Enrichment strategies improve therapeutic targeting and trial efficiency, but enrichment factors for sepsis trials are lacking. We determined whether concentrations of soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor-1 (sTNFR1), interleukin-8 (IL8), and angiopoietin-2 (Ang2) could identify sepsis patients at higher mortality risk and serve as prognostic enrichment factors.

Methods

In a multicenter prospective cohort study of 400 critically ill septic patients, we derived and validated thresholds for each marker and expressed prognostic enrichment using risk differences (RD) of 30-day mortality as predictive values. We then used decision curve analysis to simulate the prognostic enrichment of each marker and compare different prognostic enrichment strategies.

Measurements and main results

An admission sTNFR1 concentration > 8861 pg/ml identified patients with increased mortality in both the derivation (RD 21.6%) and validation (RD 17.8%) populations. Among immunocompetent patients, an IL8 concentration > 94 pg/ml identified patients with increased mortality in both the derivation (RD 17.7%) and validation (RD 27.0%) populations. An Ang2 level > 9761 pg/ml identified patients at 21.3% and 12.3% increased risk of mortality in the derivation and validation populations, respectively. Using sTNFR1 or IL8 to select high-risk patients improved clinical trial power and efficiency compared to selecting patients with septic shock. Ang2 did not outperform septic shock as an enrichment factor.

Conclusions

Thresholds for sTNFR1 and IL8 consistently identified sepsis patients with higher mortality risk and may have utility for prognostic enrichment in sepsis trials.

Biomarkers and Precision Medicine: State of the Art

Critical illness syndromes, including sepsis and the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), are identified using consensus definitions that are based on broad, clinically available criteria and include patients with heterogeneous biology. This heterogeneity is a barrier to developing and testing effective therapies for these syndromes. Biomarkers identify clinically distinct molecular phenotypes of ARDS and sepsis. These molecular phenotypes are associated with differences in mortality and predict response to several treatments in retrospective analyses of clinical trials. Biomarkers can be used for prognostic and predictive enrichment of clinical trials in critical illness to incorporate precision medicine in critical care.