Accumulation of Microvascular Target Organ Damage in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Patients Is Associated with Increased Cardiovascular Risk

Background: Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a prototype autoimmune disease associated with increased cardiovascular (CV) burden. Besides increased arterial stiffness and subclinical atherosclerosis, microvascular dysfunction is considered an important component in the pathophysiology of CV disease. However, there is a lack of data regarding the effect of multiple target organ damage (TOD) on CV health. Objectives: This study aimed to evaluate (i) the presence of microvascular changes in SLE in various vascular beds, (ii) the possible associations between the accumulation of microvascular TOD and CV risk and (iii) whether Galectin-3 represents a predictor of combined microvascular TOD. Methods: Participants underwent (i) evaluation of skin microvascular perfusion (laser speckle contrast analysis), (ii) fundoscopy (non-mydriatic fundus camera), (iii) indirect assessment of myocardial perfusion (subendocardial viability ratio) and (iv) determination of urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR). CV risk was calculated using the QResearch Risk Estimator version 3 (QRISK3). Serum Galectin-3 levels were determined. Results: Forty-seven SLE patients and fifty controls were studied. SLE patients demonstrated impaired skin microvascular reactivity (160.2 ± 41.0 vs. 203.6 ± 40.1%), retinal arteriolar narrowing (88.1 ± 11.1 vs. 94.6 ± 13.5 μm) and higher UACR levels compared to controls. Furthermore, SLE individuals had significantly higher Galectin-3 levels [21.5(6.1) vs. 6.6(6.6) ng/dL], QRISK3 scores [7.0(8.6) vs. 1.3(3.6)%] and a greater chance for microvascular dysfunction. In the SLE group, patients with multiple TOD exhibited higher QRISK3. In the multivariate analysis, the accumulation of TOD correlated with disease activity and Galectin-3 (p < 0.05). Conclusions: Our study showed for the first time that SLE patients exhibit a greater number of cases of TOD. The accumulation of TOD was associated with increased CV risk. Clinicians dealing with SLE should be aware and seek microvascular alterations.

Combined use of QRISK3 and SCORE2 increases identification of ankylosing spondylitis patients at high cardiovascular risk: Results from the CARMA Project cohort after 7.5 years of follow-up

OBJECTIVE

To establish the predictive value of the QRESEARCH risk estimator version 3 (QRISK3) algorithm in identifying Spanish patients with ankylosing spondylitis (AS) at high risk of cardiovascular (CV) events and CV mortality. We also sought to determine whether to combine QRISK3 with another CV risk algorithm: the traditional SCORE, the modified SCORE (mSCORE) EULAR 2015/2016 or the SCORE2 may increase the identification of AS patients with high-risk CV disease.

METHODS

Information of 684 patients with AS from the Spanish prospective CARdiovascular in ReuMAtology (CARMA) project who at the time of the initial visit had no history of CV events and were followed in rheumatology outpatient clinics of tertiary centers for 7.5 years was reviewed. The risk chart algorithms were retrospectively tested using baseline data.

RESULTS

After 4,907 years of follow-up, 33 AS patients had experienced CV events. Linearized rate=6.73 per 1000 person-years (95 % CI: 4.63, 9.44). The four CV risk scales were strongly correlated. QRISK3 correctly discriminated between people with lower and higher CV risk, although the percentage of accumulated events over 7.5 years was clearly lower than expected according to the risk established by QRISK3. Also, mSCORE EULAR 2015/2016 showed the same discrimination ability as SCORE, although the percentage of predicted events was clearly higher than the percentage of actual events. SCORE2 also had a strong discrimination capacity according to CV risk. Combining QRISK3 with any other scale improved the model. This was especially true for the combination of QRISK3 and SCORE2 which achieved the lowest AIC (406.70) and BIC (415.66), so this combination would be the best predictive model.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients from the Spanish CARMA project, the four algorithms tested accurately discriminated those AS patients with higher CV risk and those with lower CV risk. Moreover, a model that includes QRISK3 and SCORE2 combined the best discrimination ability of QRISK3 with the best calibration of SCORE2.

Cardiovascular risk in a contemporary cohort of patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms'

BACKGROUND

Myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) are a group of disorders of clonal haemopoiesis associated with an inherent risk of arterial and venous thrombotic complications. The prevalence of thrombotic complications and the impact of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) in contemporary patient cohorts within the current era of MPN treatments have not been completely defined.

OBJECTIVES

We aim to characterise the cardiovascular risk of patients with MPN by identifying the prevalence of CVRFs and describing the pattern of thrombotic events. We also aim to utilise the QRISK3 algorithm, which is a validated model used to estimate an individual's risk of developing cardiovascular disease, to further phenotype this cohort of patients.

METHODS

We perform a retrospective analysis on a single-centre cohort of 438 patients with MPN.

RESULTS

MPN patients continue to carry a high burden of vascular morbidity with a prevalence of arterial thrombotic events in 15.8 % (69/438) and venous thrombotic events in 13.2 % (58/438) of the cohort. The novel use of the QRISK3 algorithm, which showed a mean score of 13.7 % across the MPN population, provides further evidence to suggest an increased cardiovascular risk in MPN patients.

CONCLUSION

With an increased risk of cardiovascular disease in patients with MPN, we propose an integrated approach between primary and specialised healthcare services using risk stratification tools such as QRISK3, which will allow aggressive optimisation of CVRFs to prevent thrombosis and reduce the overall morbidity and mortality in patients with MPN.

Relationship between combat-related traumatic injury and its severity to predicted cardiovascular disease risk: ADVANCE cohort study

BACKGROUND

This study investigated the relationship between combat-related traumatic injury (CRTI) and its severity and predicted cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This was an analysis of comparative 10-year predicted CVD risk (myocardial infarction, stroke or CVD-death) using the QRISK®3 scoring-system among adults recruited into the Armed Services Trauma Rehabilitation Outcome (ADVANCE) cohort study. Participants with CRTI were compared to uninjured servicemen frequency-matched by age, sex, rank, deployment (Afghanistan 2003-2014) and role. Injury severity was quantified using the New Injury Severity Score (NISS).

RESULTS

One thousand one hundred forty four adult combat veterans were recruited, consisting of 579 injured (161 amputees) and 565 uninjured men of similar age ethnicity and time from deployment/injury. Significant mental illness (8.5% vs 4.4%; p = 0.006) and erectile dysfunction (11.6% vs 5.8%; p < 0.001) was more common, body mass index (28.1 ± 3.9 vs 27.4 ± 3.4 kg/m2; p = 0.001) higher and systolic blood pressure variability (median [IQR]) (1.7 [1.2-3.0] vs 2.1 [1.2-3.5] mmHg; p = 0.008) lower among the injured versus uninjured respectively. The relative risk (RR) of predicted CVD (versus the population expected risk) was higher (RR:1.67 [IQR 1.16-2.48]) among the injured amputees versus the injured non-amputees (RR:1.60 [1.13-2.43]) and uninjured groups (RR:1.52 [1.12-2.34]; overall p = 0.015). After adjustment for confounders CRTI, worsening injury severity (higher NISS, blast and traumatic amputation) were independently associated with QRISK®3 scores.

CONCLUSION

CRTI and its worsening severity were independently associated with increased predicted 10-year CVD risk.

The possible relationship between the healthy eating index-2015 and the 10-year risk of cardiovascular diseases

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) remain the leading cause of mortality worldwide. This underlies the need to evaluate different targets, such as diet quality. In this regard, we conducted the present study to find whether the healthy eating index-2015 (HEI-2015) score is associated with a 10-year risk of CVDs based on Framingham Risk Score (FRS) and QRISK3 in different body mass index (BMI) groups.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was performed based on Shiraz University of Medical Sciences Employees Health Cohort Study (SUMS EHCS) data in April 2020. A total of 764 participants met the inclusion criteria. An expert performed demographic, anthropometric, and dietary evaluations. A semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) was applied to assess the diet quality, and FRS and QRISK3 were used to evaluate the 10-year risk of CVDs.

RESULTS

Based on the results, many components of HEI-2015 indicated an increasing trend through quartiles (p < 0.001). However, the consumption of refined grains in higher quartiles showed a decreasing trend (p < 0.001). The consumption of added sugar and saturated fatty acids (SFAs) in higher quartiles revealed an increasing trend (p < 0.001). In addition, lower HEI-2015 scores and lower whole grain consumption were significantly associated with higher BMI (p < 0.05). Also, lower consumption of fruits showed a significant relationship with higher risk scores of Framingham and QRISK3 (p < 0.05). Higher added sugar and SFAs intake was significantly related to lower FRS (p < 0.05). A significant reverse association between HEI-2015 and QRISK3 and Framingham risk scores was seen (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Our findings support dietary recommendations to increase fruit and whole grains intake to prevent CVD and obesity. Moreover, a significant inverse association between HEI-2015 and QRISK3 and Framingham risk scores was observed. Since the results for added sugars and SFA intakes were controversial, further studies are needed.

Severe COVID-19 outcomes by cardiovascular risk profile in England in 2020: a population-based cohort study

Background

While cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a risk factor for severe COVID-19, the association between predicted cardiovascular risk and severe COVID-19 among people without diagnosed CVD is unclear.

Methods

We carried out historical, population-based cohort studies among adults aged 40-84 years in England using linked data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Individuals were categorized into: existing CVD, raised cardiovascular risk (defined using QRISK3 score ≥10%) and low risk (QRISK3 score <10%) at 12/03/2020. We described incidence and severe outcomes of COVID-19 (deaths, intensive care unit [ICU] admissions, hospitalisations, major adverse cardiovascular events [MACE]) for each group. Among those with a COVID-19 record to 31/12/2020, we re-classified cardiovascular risk at infection and assessed the risk of severe outcomes using multivariable Cox regression with complete case analysis. We repeated analyses using hypertension to define raised cardiovascular risk.

Findings

Among 6,059,055 individuals, 741,913 (12.2%) had established CVD, 1,929,627 (31.8%) had a QRISK3 score ≥10% and 3,387,515 (55.9%) had a QRISK3 score <10%. Marked gradients were seen in the incidence of all severe COVID-19 outcomes by cardiovascular risk profile. Among those with COVID-19 (N = 146,760), there was a strong association between raised QRISK3 score and death: adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 8.77 (7.62-10.10), N = 97,725, which remained present, though attenuated in age-stratified results. Risks of other outcomes were also higher among those with raised QRISK3 score: aHR 3.66 (3.18-4.21) for ICU admissions, 3.38 (3.22-3.56) for hospitalisations, 5.43 (4.44-6.64) for MACE. When raised cardiovascular risk was redefined by hypertension status, only the association with MACE remained: aHR 1.49 (1.20-1.85), N = 57,264.

Interpretation

Individuals without pre-existing CVD but with raised cardiovascular risk (by QRISK3 score) were more likely to experience severe COVID-19 outcomes and should be prioritised for prevention and treatment. Addressing cardiovascular risk factors could improve COVID-19 outcomes.

Funding

BMA Foundation for Medical Research/Rosetrees Trust, Wellcome, BHF.

Subclinical Carotid Atherosclerosis in Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis at Low Cardiovascular Risk

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the rate of subclinical carotid atherosclerosis and clinical significance of immunoinflammatory markers in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) at low cardiovascular risk.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study included 275 RA patients and a control group of 100 participants without autoimmune diseases. All study participants were at low cardiovascular risk, calculated by the QRISK3 scale (<20%), and free of cardiovascular disease. Ultrasound examination of carotid arteries was performed to measure cIMT and to detect atherosclerotic plaques (ASP) in carotid arteries. sIСАМ-1, sVСАМ, and sCD40L levels were determined by enzyme immunoassay.

RESULTS

Carotid ASP was observed more frequently in RA patients (27%) than in the control group (17%), p = 0.03. The frequency of ASP in RA patients did not depend on the disease's stage or activity. There was a significant correlation between cIMT and age, cardiovascular risk determined by QRISK3, level of total cholesterol, LDL, and blood pressure in RA patients, p < 0.05 in all cases. No correlation between cIMT and blood levels of sCD40L, sVCAM, and sICAM was found. In RA patients, a higher concentration of sVCAM was detected in the carotid ASP group compared to the non-atherosclerotic group. sCD40L was associated with cIMT and total cholesterol in the ASP group and with total cholesterol and blood pressure in non-atherosclerotic patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Subclinical atherosclerotic lesions of the carotid arteries were observed significantly more frequently in RA patients with low cardiovascular risk than in the control group. The results of the study demonstrate the association between cIMT, traditional cardiovascular risk factors, and immunoinflammatory markers in RA patients.

Predictive performance of a competing risk cardiovascular prediction tool CRISK compared to QRISK3 in older people and those with comorbidity: population cohort study

BACKGROUND

Recommended cardiovascular disease (CVD) prediction tools do not account for competing mortality risk and over-predict incident CVD in older and multimorbid people. The aim of this study was to derive and validate a competing risk model (CRISK) to predict incident CVD and compare its performance to that of QRISK3 in UK primary care.

METHODS

We used UK linked primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD to identify people aged 25-84 years with no previous CVD or statin treatment split into derivation and validation cohorts. In the derivation cohort, we derived models using the same covariates as QRISK3 with Fine-Gray competing risk modelling alone (CRISK) and with Charlson Comorbidity score (CRISK-CCI) as an additional predictor of non-CVD death. In a separate validation cohort, we examined discrimination and calibration compared to QRISK3. Reclassification analysis examined the number of patients recommended for treatment and the estimated number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent a new CVD event.

RESULTS

The derivation and validation cohorts included 989,732 and 494,865 women and 946,784 and 473,392 men respectively. Overall discrimination of CRISK and CRISK-CCI were excellent and similar to QRISK3 (for women, C-statistic = 0.863/0.864/0.863 respectively; for men 0.833/0.819/0.832 respectively). CRISK and CRISK-CCI calibration overall and in younger people was excellent. CRISK over-predicted in older and multimorbid people although performed better than QRISK3, whilst CRISK-CCI performed the best. The proportion of people reclassified by CRISK-CCI varied by QRISK3 risk score category, with 0.7-9.7% of women and 2.8-25.2% of men reclassified as higher risk and 21.0-69.1% of women and 27.1-57.4% of men reclassified as lower risk. Overall, CRISK-CCI recommended fewer people for treatment and had a lower estimated NNT at 10% risk threshold. Patients reclassified as higher risk were younger, had lower SBP and higher BMI, and were more likely to smoke.

CONCLUSIONS

CRISK and CRISK-CCI performed better than QRISK3. CRISK-CCI recommends fewer people for treatment and has a lower NNT to prevent a new CVD event compared to QRISK3. Competing risk models should be recommended for CVD primary prevention treatment recommendations.

Selection of 51 predictors from 13,782 candidate multimodal features using machine learning improves coronary artery disease prediction

Current cardiovascular risk assessment tools use a small number of predictors. Here, we study how machine learning might: (1) enable principled selection from a large multimodal set of candidate variables and (2) improve prediction of incident coronary artery disease (CAD) events. An elastic net-based Cox model (ML4HEN-COX) trained and evaluated in 173,274 UK Biobank participants selected 51 predictors from 13,782 candidates. Beyond most traditional risk factors, ML4HEN-COX selected a polygenic score, waist circumference, socioeconomic deprivation, and several hematologic indices. A more than 30-fold gradient in 10-year risk estimates was noted across ML4HEN-COX quintiles, ranging from 0.25% to 7.8%. ML4HEN-COX improved discrimination of incident CAD (C-statistic = 0.796) compared with the Framingham risk score, pooled cohort equations, and QRISK3 (range 0.754-0.761). This approach to variable selection and model assessment is readily generalizable to a broad range of complex datasets and disease endpoints.

Consistency of ranking was evaluated as new measure for prediction model stability: longitudinal cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Clinical risk prediction models are generally assessed on population level with a lack of measures that evaluate their stability at predicting risks of individual patients. This study evaluated the use of ranking as a measure to assess individual level stability between risk prediction models.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

A large patient cohort (3.66 million patients with 0.11 million cardiovascular events) extracted from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink was used in the exemplar of cardiovascular disease risk prediction.

RESULTS

It was found that 15 models (including machine learning and statistical models) had similar population-level model performance (C statistics about 0.88). For patients with high absolute risks, the models were more consistent in ranking of risk predictions (interquartile range (IQR) of differences in rank percentiles -0.6 to 1.0), but inconsistent in absolute risk (IQR of differences in absolute risk -18.8 to 9.0). At low risk, the reverse was true with inconsistent ranking but more consistent absolute risk.

CONCLUSION

Consistency of ranking of individual risk predictions is a useful measure to assess risk prediction models providing complementary information to absolute risk stability. Model developing guidelines including "TRIPOD" and "PROBAST" should incorporate ranking to assess individual level stability between risk prediction models.

Combined use of QRISK3 and SCORE as predictors of carotid plaques in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

OBJECTIVE

Because carotid plaques predict the development of cardiovascular events in RA, we aimed to assess if the combined use of the systematic coronary risk evaluation (SCORE) and the QRISK3 algorithms allows for the identification of RA patients with carotid plaques in a defined population-based RA inception cohort.

METHODS

A set of consecutive RA patients without a history of diabetes, chronic kidney disease or cardiovascular events were studied by carotid US between 2012 and 2019. Modified SCORE (mSCORE) for RA based on the 2015/2016 updated EULAR recommendations and QRISK3 algorithms were retrospectively tested using baseline data obtained at the time of the carotid US assessment.

RESULTS

A total of 466 (54%) of 865 patients had carotid plaques. Using dichotomized QRISK3 and EULAR mSCORE, 73.2% (95% CI: 68.4.8, 77.6) of patients with QRISK ≥ 10% and EULAR mSCORE < 5% had plaque. In this group, the diagnostic odds ratio was 5.79 (95% CI: 4.14, 8.10). However, if both algorithms were above their thresholds of high cardiovascular risk (QRISK ≥ 10% and EULAR mSCORE ≥ 5%), the sensitivity increased up to 83.3% (95% CI: 72.1, 91.4) and the diagnostic odds ratio up to 10.6 (95% CI: 5.13, 22.0). When the risk charts scales were used as continuous variables, both QRISK3 and EULAR mSCORE were found positively associated with plaque. For each 1% QRISK3 or EULAR mSCORE increase, the probability of having plaques multiplied by 1.14 and 1.22, respectively. However, the effects of both algorithms did not multiply by each other.

CONCLUSIONS

. The combined use of QRISK3 and EULAR mSCORE allows for the identification of most RA patients at high risk of carotid plaques.

Risks of cardio-vascular diseases among highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) treated HIV seropositive volunteers at a treatment centre in Lagos, Nigeria

Introduction

highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has led to a decline in HIV-induced morbidity and mortality in recent years. However, it has been opined that this has led to elevated risks of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). This study assessed the risks of CVDs among HAART experienced individuals living with HIV.

Methods

a cross sectional study involving 196 adults consisting of 118 HAART experienced and 78 HAART naïve was conducted. Anthropometric and blood pressure measurements were recorded for all participants. Blood samples obtained from the volunteers were used to determine glucose, creatinine, HIV viral load, CD4 count and lipid profile using standard methods. Lipid ratios, atherogenic indices and QRISK3 risk score were calculated.

Results

the median CD4 lymphocyte, mean body mass index (BMI) and HDL-c in HAART experienced participants were higher (P<0.05) than HAART naive individuals. The QRISK3 risk score and creatinine were higher (p<0.05) among HAART experienced group. In HAART experienced group, the risk of hypertension, increased low-density lipoprotein (LDL-c), atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) and QRISK3 were 3.7, 2.0, 2.38 and 3.85 times (p<0.05) higher respectively than in HAART naive. Atherogenic coefficient (AC) increase was more prevalent among male (p<0.05) participants. Risk of chronic renal disease (eGFR), hypertension and CVD (as measured by QRISK3) was higher (p<0.05) among the female and older participants respectively.

Conclusion

the risk of CVDs and renal disease appeared to be higher among HAART experienced volunteers and older (>45 years) volunteers. The risk of renal disease appeared higher in females.

Cardiovascular and stroke disease risk among doctors: a cross-sectional study

The leading causes of death in the world are cardiovascular disease (CVD) and stroke according to the World Health Organization, as is also the case in India. There is also a high prevalence of major conventional risk factors in India, where 18.3%, 9.0% and 14.1% of adults are diagnosed with hypertension, diabetes and smoking, respectively. The aim of the present study was to look at the risk of CVD among doctors in our country using a validated tool developed by the National Health Service (NHS) in the UK, the QRISK3 calculator.

Carotid plaques as predictors of cardiovascular events in patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis. Results from a 5-year-prospective follow-up study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate if the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) and the QRISK3 algorithms as well as the carotid ultrasound are useful predictors of cardiovascular (CV) events and death in a prospectively defined population-based rheumatoid arthritis (RA) inception cohort.

METHODS

A set of 327 consecutive RA patients without history of diabetes, chronic kidney disease or CV events were studied by carotid ultrasound between 2012 and 2013. At that time, CV risk was calculated according to the modified EULAR systematic coronary risk evaluation (mSCORE) for RA. A five-year prospective follow-up study was conducted by survival analysis models. The EULAR mSCORE based on the 2015/2016 updated EULAR recommendations and the QRISK3 algorithms were retrospectively tested using baseline data.

RESULTS

After 1,984.25 patient-years of follow-up, 23 had died and 27 had experienced CV events. Linearized mortality rate was 1.16/100 patient-years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.74--1.73). Adjusting for age, gender and disease duration, a model with carotid plaques (Hazard ratio [HR]: 6.10 [95% CI:0.74--50.0]; p = 0.09) and another model with carotid plaques and QRISK3 (HR for carotid plaques: 6.12 [95% CI: 0.74--50.5]; p = 0.09 and HR for each 1% in QRISK3: 1.03 [95% CI: 0.99--1.07], p = 0.11, respectively were the best predictors of death whereas a model with carotid plaques (HR: 5.25 [95% CI:1.41--19.50]; p = 0.01) and another model with carotid plaques and QRISK3 (HR for carotid plaques: 5.13 [95% CI: 1.36--19.3]; p = 0.02 and HR for each 1% in QRISK3: 1.03 [95% CI: 0.99--1.07], p = 0.12, respectively, were the best predictors of CV events. In contrast, the mSCORE was a weaker predictor of the risk of death or CV events.

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of carotid plaques predicts the development of CV events and death in patients with RA. The predictable capacity of carotid plaques and QRISK3 is higher than that of mSCORE in RA patients.

Quantitative measure of asymptomatic cardiovascular disease risk in Type 2 diabetes: Evidence from Indian outpatient setting

BACKGROUND

The cardiovascular (CV) risk of patients with Type 2 diabetes (T2D) of Indo-Asian descent has never been objectively assessed, although it is documented that they have a higher prevalence of CV disease (CVD).

AIMS

To identify groups of Indian patients with asymptomatic T2D who are at high risk of CVD as per the QRISK calculator.

METHOD

After an adequate power calculation, a nation-wide study of patients with asymptomatic T2D was conducted. The QRISK3 scores of these patients were used to derive a 10-year risk of CV events. High CVD risk was defined as ≥20% risk of CV event in 10 years.

RESULTS

For a total of 1538 patients across 154 outpatient departments, the QRISK3 scores were collated. Median 10-year CVD risk was 22.2%. Mean 10-year CVD risk was 28.4% (standard deviation 22.1%), representing a 5.7-fold increase vs. controls (i.e., matched healthy adults). Absolute CVD risk increased linearly with age. Over 50% of T2D males aged above 45 years had a high (>20%) CVD risk. Women aged more than 55 years had a high risk of CVD. More than 50% of patients with a T2D duration of more than 5 years had a high risk of CVD as per the QRISK3 calculator.

QRISK3 improves detection of cardiovascular disease risk in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus

Objective

10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk scores are calculated using algorithms, including Framingham (worldwide) and QRISK2 (UK). Recently, an updated QRISK3 model was introduced, which considers new variables including SLE and steroid prescription, not included in QRISK2 and Framingham algorithms. We sought to determine the extent to which QRISK3 improves identification of high-risk patients with SLE and whether the score relates to standard and novel markers of SLE-specific endothelial dysfunction.

Methods

Framingham and QRISK2/3 scores were calculated in patients with SLE (n=109) and healthy controls (n=29) using clinical measures. In a smaller cohort (n=58), markers of inflammation and endothelial dysfunction, including CD144⁺ endothelial microvesicles (EMVs), triglycerides, vascular cell adhesion molecule (VCAM) and high-sensitivity C reactive protein (hsCRP) were quantified by flow cytometry and ELISA, respectively.

Results

Patients with SLE demonstrated significantly higher QRISK3 scores than controls (5.0%vs0.3%, p<0.001). 21/109 patients with SLE (19%) and 24/109(22%) were newly identified as being at high risk of a CV event when using QRISK3 versus QRISK2 (29vs8patients) and QRISK3 versus Framingham (29vs5patients; p<0.001), respectively. These ‘new QRISK3’ patients with SLE were more likely to have lupus nephritis, be anticardiolipin antibody positive, currently prescribed corticosteroids, had a higher Body Mass Index and systolic blood pressure (BP) than low-risk patients with SLE. Rates of antiplatelet (8/21) and statin use (5/21) were low in the new QRISK3 group. EMVs, hsCRP and triglyceride levels were significantly higher in new QRISK3 patientscompared with low-risk patients with SLE (p<0.05). Furthermore, pulse wave velocity and VCAM were significantly elevated in all high versus low QRISK3 patients.

Conclusions

QRISK3 captures significantly more patients with SLE with an elevated 10-year risk of developing CVD, which is associated with measures of endothelial dysfunction; EMVs and systolic BP. The adoption of QRISK3 will enhance management of CVD risk in patients with SLE for improved outcome.