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Zhang WB, Ge Y, Liu M, Atkinson PM, Wang J, Zhang X, Tian Z. Risk assessment of the step-by-step return-to-work policy in Beijing following the COVID-19 epidemic peak. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 2020; 35:481-498. [PMID: 33223954 PMCID: PMC7664171 DOI: 10.1007/s00477-020-01929-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 10/30/2020] [Indexed: 05/29/2023]
Abstract
Novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is a new strain of coronavirus first identified in Wuhan, China. As the virus spread worldwide causing a global pandemic, China reduced transmission at considerable social and economic cost. Post-lockdown, resuming work safely, that is, while avoiding a second epidemic outbreak, is a major challenge. Exacerbating this challenge, Beijing hosts many residents and workers with origins elsewhere, making it a relatively high-risk region in which to resume work. Nevertheless, the step-by-step approach taken by Beijing appears to have been effective so far. To learn from the epidemic progression and return-to-work measures undertaken in Beijing, and to inform efforts to avoid a second outbreak of COVID-19, we simulated the epidemiological progression of COVID-19 in Beijing under the real scenario of multiple stages of resuming work. A new epidemic transmission model was developed from a modified SEIR model for SARS, tailored to the situation of Beijing and fitted using multi-source data. Because of strong spatial heterogeneity amongst the population, socio-economic factors and medical capacity of Beijing, the risk assessment was undertaken spatiotemporally with respect to each district of Beijing. The epidemic simulation confirmed that the policy of resuming work step-by step, as implemented in Beijing, was sufficient to avoid a recurrence of the epidemic. Moreover, because of the structure of the model, the simulation provided insights into the specific factors at play at different stages of resuming work, allowing district-specific recommendations to be made with respect to monitoring at different stages of resuming work . As such, this research provides important lessons for other cities and regions dealing with outbreaks of COVID-19 and implementing return-to-work policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wen-bin Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information Systems, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101 China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049 China
| | - Yong Ge
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information Systems, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101 China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049 China
| | - Mengxiao Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information Systems, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101 China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049 China
| | - Peter M. Atkinson
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information Systems, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101 China
- Lancaster Environment Center, Faculty of Science and Technology, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YR UK
| | - Jinfeng Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information Systems, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101 China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049 China
| | - Xining Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information Systems, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101 China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049 China
| | - Zhaoxing Tian
- Emergency Department of Peking, University International Hospital, Beijing, China
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