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Schultze A, Martin I, Messina D, Bots S, Belitser S, José Carreras-Martínez J, Correcher-Martinez E, Urchueguía-Fornes A, Martín-Pérez M, García-Poza P, Villalobos F, Pallejà-Millán M, Alberto Bissacco C, Segundo E, Souverein P, Riefolo F, Durán CE, Gini R, Sturkenboom M, Klungel O, Douglas I. A comparison of four self-controlled study designs in an analysis of COVID-19 vaccines and myocarditis using five European databases. Vaccine 2024; 42:3039-3048. [PMID: 38580517 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2024.03.043] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2023] [Revised: 03/16/2024] [Accepted: 03/17/2024] [Indexed: 04/07/2024]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The aim of this study was to assess the possible extent of bias due to violation of a core assumption (event-dependent exposures) when using self-controlled designs to analyse the association between COVID-19 vaccines and myocarditis. METHODS We used data from five European databases (Spain: BIFAP, FISABIO VID, and SIDIAP; Italy: ARS-Tuscany; England: CPRD Aurum) converted to the ConcePTION Common Data Model. Individuals who experienced both myocarditis and were vaccinated against COVID-19 between 1 September 2020 and the end of data availability in each country were included. We compared a self-controlled risk interval study (SCRI) using a pre-vaccination control window, an SCRI using a post-vaccination control window, a standard SCCS and an extension of the SCCS designed to handle violations of the assumption of event-dependent exposures. RESULTS We included 1,757 cases of myocarditis. For analyses of the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine, to which all databases contributed information, we found results consistent with a null effect in both of the SCRI and extended SCCS, but some indication of a harmful effect in a standard SCCS. For the second dose, we found evidence of a harmful association for all study designs, with relatively similar effect sizes (SCRI pre = 1.99, 1.40 - 2.82; SCRI post 2.13, 95 %CI - 1.43, 3.18; standard SCCS 1.79, 95 %CI 1.31 - 2.44, extended SCCS 1.52, 95 %CI = 1.08 - 2.15). Adjustment for calendar time did not change these conclusions. Findings using all designs were also consistent with a harmful effect following a second dose of the Moderna vaccine. CONCLUSIONS In the context of the known association between COVID-19 vaccines and myocarditis, we have demonstrated that two forms of SCRI and two forms of SCCS led to largely comparable results, possibly because of limited violation of the assumption of event-dependent exposures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna Schultze
- Department of Non-communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
| | - Ivonne Martin
- Department of Data Science and Biostatistics, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Davide Messina
- Agenzia Regionale di Sanità (ARS), Florence, Toscana, Italy
| | - Sophie Bots
- Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Clinical Pharmacology, Utrecht Institute for Pharmaceutical Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Svetlana Belitser
- Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Clinical Pharmacology, Utrecht Institute for Pharmaceutical Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Juan José Carreras-Martínez
- Vaccine Research Department, Foundation for the Promotion of Health and Biomedical Research in the Valencian Region (FISABIO - Public Health), Valencia, Spain; CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
| | - Elisa Correcher-Martinez
- Vaccine Research Department, Foundation for the Promotion of Health and Biomedical Research in the Valencian Region (FISABIO - Public Health), Valencia, Spain; CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
| | - Arantxa Urchueguía-Fornes
- Vaccine Research Department, Foundation for the Promotion of Health and Biomedical Research in the Valencian Region (FISABIO - Public Health), Valencia, Spain; CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
| | - Mar Martín-Pérez
- Spanish Agency for Medicines and Medical Devices (AEMPS), Madrid, Spain
| | | | - Felipe Villalobos
- Fundació Institut Universitari per a la recerca a l'Atenció Primària de Salut Jordi Gol i Gurina (IDIAPJGol), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Meritxell Pallejà-Millán
- Fundació Institut Universitari per a la recerca a l'Atenció Primària de Salut Jordi Gol i Gurina (IDIAPJGol), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Carlo Alberto Bissacco
- Fundació Institut Universitari per a la recerca a l'Atenció Primària de Salut Jordi Gol i Gurina (IDIAPJGol), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Elena Segundo
- Fundació Institut Universitari per a la recerca a l'Atenció Primària de Salut Jordi Gol i Gurina (IDIAPJGol), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Patrick Souverein
- Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Clinical Pharmacology, Utrecht Institute for Pharmaceutical Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Fabio Riefolo
- Teamit Institute, Partnerships, Barcelona Health Hub, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Carlos E Durán
- Department of Data Science and Biostatistics, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Rosa Gini
- Agenzia Regionale di Sanità (ARS), Florence, Toscana, Italy
| | - Miriam Sturkenboom
- Department of Data Science and Biostatistics, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Olaf Klungel
- Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Clinical Pharmacology, Utrecht Institute for Pharmaceutical Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Ian Douglas
- Department of Non-communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
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