Global and regional estimates of tuberculosis burden attributed to high fasting plasma glucose from 1990 to 2019: emphasis on earlier glycemic control

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have shown subjects suffering from diabetes or persistent hyperglycemia were more likely to develop tuberculosis (TB). However, the global burden of TB attributed to high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) remains unclear. This study aimed to characterize the global, regional, and national TB burden attributed to HFPG from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

With Global Burden of Disease study 2019, the numbers and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rates (ASDR) of TB attributed to HFPG at global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2019 were extracted. The locally weighted regression model was applied to estimate the TB burden for different socio-demographic index (SDI) regions.

RESULTS

Globally, the ASMR and ASDR attributed to HFPG were 2.70 (95% UI, 1.64-3.94) and 79.70 (95% UI, 50.26-112.51) per 100,000 population in 1990, respectively. These rates decreased to 1.46 (95% UI, 0.91-2.08) and 45.53 (95% UI, 29.06-62.29) in 2019. The TB burden attributed to HFPG remained high in low SDI and Central Sub-Saharan Africa regions, while it declined with most significantly in high SDI and East Asia regions. Additionally, the ASMR and ASDR of TB attributed to HFPG were significantly higher in the male and the elderly population.

CONCLUSIONS

The global TB burden attributable to HFPG decreased from 1990 to 2019, but remained high in low SDI regions among high-risk populations. Thus, urgent efforts are required to enhance the awareness of early glycemic control and TB treatment to alleviate the severe situation.

Self-harm and interpersonal violence due to high temperature from the global burden of disease study 2019: A 30-year assessment

BACKGROUND

The impact of global warming on health due to climate change is increasingly studied, but the global burden of self-harm and interpersonal violence attributable to high temperature is still limited. This study aimed to systematically assess the burden of self-harm and interpersonal violence attributable to high temperature globally or by region and climate zone from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We obtained the global, regional, and national deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rates (ASDR) of self-harm and interpersonal violence due to high temperature from 1990 to 2019 through the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. The burden of self-harm and interpersonal violence due to high temperature was estimated by age, sex, climate zone, the socio-demographic index (SDI), and the healthcare access and quality index (HAQ). Average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) in ASMR and ASDR were calculated for 1990-2019 using the Joinpoint model.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the global deaths and DALYs related to self-harm and interpersonal violence due to high temperature increased from 20,002 (95% UI, 9243 to 41,928) and 1,107,216 (95% UI, 512,062 to 2,319,477) to 26,459 (95% UI, 13,574 to 47,265) and 1,382,487 (95% UI, 722,060 to 2,474,441), respectively. However, the ASMR and ASDR showed varying degrees of decreasing trends, with decreases of 13.36% and 12.66%, respectively. The ASMR was high and declining in low and low-middle SDI regions, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. In addition, SDI and HAQ index were negatively correlated with ASMR in 204 countries and regions.

CONCLUSIONS

The global burden of self-harm and interpersonal violence attributed to high temperature has decreased over the past 30 years, but the number of deaths and DALYs continues to rise. Climate change continues to make heat stress a significant risk factor for self-harm and interpersonal violence worldwide.

Global burden study of lower respiratory infections linked to low temperatures: an analysis from 1990 to 2019

Low temperature conditions have been linked to a heightened susceptibility to lower respiratory infections (LRIs). Yet, our comprehension of the LRIs' disease burden due to such conditions remains limited, especially when considering the diverse socio-demographic indexes (SDIs) and climate types across various nations and regions. We examined the variations over time and space in the impact of LRIs due to low temperatures across a diverse set of 204 nations and regions, each with unique SDIs and climate types, spanning the years 1990 to 2019. Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 was used for this retrospective analysis. The burden of LRIs attributable to low temperatures was estimated by stratifying by sex, age, country, climate type, and SDI, including age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate (ASDR). We employed Joinpoint models to compute the annual average percent changes (AAPCs) in order to evaluate the trends in LRIs burden due to low temperatures from 1990 to 2019. Furthermore, we utilized Poisson age-period-cohort models to forecast the global and income-specific trends in LRIs burden due to low temperatures for the period 2020-2044. Generalized additive mixed models were used to fit changes in the disease burden of different climate regions. The relationship between SDI and both ASMR and ASDR was determined using models grounded in Gaussian process regression. In general, since the year 1990, there has been a significant reduction in the worldwide impact of LRIs due to low temperatures. This decrease is particularly noticeable among infants and the elderly, as well as in regions with a boreal climate and those with an average SDI. In 2019, LRIs induced by low temperatures showed an ASMR of 2.2 (95% CI: 1.34, 3.07) and an ASDR of 53.73 (95% CI: 17.5, 93.22) for every 100,000 individuals. A global reduction was observed in the ASMR and ASDR for LRIs over the period from 1990 to 2019, showing a decrease of 60.27% and 77.5%, in that order. For ASMR and ASDR, the AAPC values were found to be - 3.3 (95% CI: - 3.4, - 3.1) and - 5 (95% CI: - 5.2, - 4.9), in that order. However, a contrasting pattern was observed in southern Latin America, where an increase was noted in the ASMR for LRIs induced by low temperatures [AAPC: 0.5; 95% CI: (0.3, 0.8)]. Low temperature has decreased as an environmental risk factor for LRIs globally over 30 years, especially in middle SDI regions and boreal climates, but remains important for infants and the elderly population.

Temporal trend and global burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to non-optimal temperature, 1990-2019: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Exposure to hot or cold temperatures was reported to be associated with increased mortality and morbidity of type 2 diabetes, but few studies have estimated the temporal trend and global burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to non-optimal temperature. Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we collected data on the numbers and rates of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of type 2 diabetes attributed to non-optimal temperature. The joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate the temporal trends of the age-standardized rate of mortality and DALYs from 1990 to 2019 by average annual percentage change (AAPC). From 1990 to 2019, globally, the numbers of deaths and DALYs of type 2 diabetes attributable to non-optimal temperature increased by 136.13% (95% (uncertainty interval) UI: 87.04% to 277.76%) and 122.26% (95% UI: 68.77% to 275.59%), with the number from 0.05 (95% UI: 0.02 to 0.07) million and 0.96 (95% UI: 0.37 to 1.51) million in 1990 to 0. 11 (95% UI: 0.07 to 0.15) million and 2.14 (95% UI: 1.35 to 3.13) million in 2019. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and DALYs rate (ASDR) of type 2 diabetes attributable to non-optimal temperature showed an increasing trend in the high temperature effect and lower (low, low-middle and middle) socio-demographic index (SDI) region, with AAPCs of 3.17%, 1.24%, 1.61%, and 0.79% (all P < 0.05), respectively. The greatest increased ASMR and ASDR were observed in Central Asia, followed by Western Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Meanwhile, the contribution of type 2 diabetes burden attributable to high temperature gradually increased globally and in five SDI regions. In addition, the global age-specific rate of mortality and DALYs of type 2 diabetes attributable to non-optimal temperature for both men and women almost increased with age in 2019. The global burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to non-optimal temperature increased from 1990 to 2019, particularly in high temperature, regions with lower SDI, and the older population. Appropriate temperature interventions are necessary to curb climate change and increasing diabetes.

PM2.5-related neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma: a global burden study from 1990 to 2019

Long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) may increase the risk of neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. However, little is known about the trends of PM_2.5-related neonatal encephalopathy burden under different levels of social and economic development. We studied the burden of PM_2.5-related neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma measured by the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR), and its trends with the socio-demographic index (SDI) in 192 countries and regions from 1990 to 2019. This is a retrospective study using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD2019) database. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR) are used to measure the burden of PM_2.5-related neonatal encephalopathy in different countries and regions. The mortality rate (per 100 thousand) is used to evaluate the differences of PM_2.5-related neonatal encephalopathy burden in sex and age. The annual percentage changes (APCs) and the average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) are used to reflect the trends of PM_2.5-related neonatal encephalopathy burden over years (1990-2019) and are calculated using a Joinpoint model. The relationship of the socio-demographic index with the ASMR and ASDR is calculated using Gaussian process regression. In summary, the global burden of PM_2.5-related neonatal encephalopathy increased since 1990, especially in boys, early neonates, and regions with low-middle SDI. Globally, the ASMR and ASDR of PM_2.5-related neonatal encephalopathy burden in 2019 were 0.59 (95% CI: 0.40, 0.83) per 100,000 people and 52.59 (95% CI: 35.33, 73.67) per 100,000 people, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the ASMR and ASDR of PM_2.5-related neonatal encephalopathy increased by 44.39% and 44.19%, respectively. The global average annual percentage changes of ASMR and ASDR were 1.3 (95% CI: 1.0, 1.6). The relationship between the socio-demographic index and the burden of PM_2.5-related neonatal encephalopathy presented negative correlation when the socio-demographic index was more than 0.60. Middle, high-middle, and high SDI regions had decreasing trends of PM_2.5-related neonatal encephalopathy, of which the AAPCs for both ASMR and ASDR ranged from - 0.3 to - 3.1. Besides improving the progress in national policy and the coverage rate of maternal and neonatal health care and facility-based delivery, air pollution control may also be a better way for countries with large and increasing amounts of exposure to PM_2.5 pollution to reduce neonatal encephalopathy. And our results also suggest that low and low-middle SDI countries should appropriately pay more attention to early newborns and boys.

Impact of high temperature on road injury mortality in a changing climate, 1990-2019: A global analysis

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have shown that extreme heat likely increases the risk of road injuries. However, the global burden of road injuries due to high temperature and contributing factors remain unclear. This study aims to characterize the global, regional and national burden of road injuries due to high temperature from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

Based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019, we obtained the numbers and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rates (ASDR) of the road injury due to high temperature at global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2019. The world is divided into five climate zones according to the average annual temperature of each country: tropical, subtropical, warm temperate, cold temperate, and boreal. We used the generalized additive models (GAM) to model the trends of road injuries globally and by region.

RESULTS

Globally, between 1990 and 2019, the deaths of road injury attributable to high temperature increased significantly from 20,270 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7836 to 42,716) to 28,396 (95% UI, 13,311 to 51,178), and the DALYs increased from 1,169,309 (95% UI, 450,834 to 2,491,075) to 1,414,527 (95% UI, 658,347 to 2,543,613). But the ASMR and the ASDR slightly decreased by 8.49% and 13.16%, respectively. The burden of road injury death attributable to high temperature remained high in low SDI and tropical regions. In addition, road transport infrastructure investment per inhabitant is associated with the burden of road injuries attributable to high temperature.

CONCLUSIONS

Globally, the ASMR and ASDR for road injuries attributable to high temperature decreased from 1990 to 2019, but the absolute death and DALYs continued to increase. Thus, concerning global warming, implementation of prevention and interventions to reduce road injuries from heat exposure should be stressed globally.

Global spatiotemporal trends of cardiovascular diseases due to temperature in different climates and socio-demographic index regions from 1990 to 2019

With the rapidly changing climate, assessing the global trends of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) attributed to high and low temperatures in different climate zones and under varying socio-demographic levels is crucial for regulations, preparation, intervention, and clinical practice for CVD. Our study included 204 countries with global CVD data ranging from 1990 to 2019. We obtained the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR); disability-adjusted life rate of CVD attributed to high, low, and non-optimal temperatures; and socio-demographic index (SDI) data from the Global Health Data Exchange. We also downloaded the temperature data from the Climatic Research Unit. These 204 countries were divided into five climate zones and five SDI levels according to the annual average temperature data and SDI in 2019. The temporal trends of CVD burden attributed to high, low, and non-optimal temperatures were estimated by using the cubic regression spline and the generalized additive mixed model (GAMM). The total burden of temperature-related CVD has been declining in the last 30 years. However, the burden of CVD attributed to high temperature showed an increasing trend. Among different climate regions, the ASMRs of CVD attributed to high temperature were the highest in the tropical regions, followed by subtropical regions, and the lowest in the boreal regions. In the past 30 years, the burden of CVD attributed to high temperatures has shown a significant increasing trend, while declining trends are observed for non-optimal and low temperatures. The CVD burden attributed to high temperatures is particularly pronounced in warmer and low-SDI regions with an increasing trend of CVD burden due to high temperature.

Impact of high, low, and non-optimum temperatures on chronic kidney disease in a changing climate, 1990-2019: A global analysis

BACKGROUND

Although a few studies have reported the relationship between high and low temperatures and chronic kidney disease (CKD), the global burden of CKD attributable to extreme heat and cold in recent decades remains unknown.

METHODS

Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019, we obtained data on age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and age-standardized rates of disability-adjusted life years (ASDR) per 100 000 population of the CKD attributable to non-optimum temperatures from 1990 to 2019. The annual mean temperature of each country was used to divide each country into five climate zones (tropical, subtropical, warm-temperate, cool-temperate, and boreal). The locally weighted regression model was used to estimate the burden for different climate zones and Socio-demographic index (SDI) regions.

RESULTS

In 1990, the ASMR and ASDR due to high temperature estimated -0.01 (95% UI, -0.74 to 0.44) and -0.32 (-21.66 to 12.66) per 100 000 population, respectively. In 2019, the ASMR and ASDR reached 0.10 (-0.28 to 0.38) and 2.71 (-8.07 to 10.46), respectively. The high-temperature burden increased most rapidly in tropical and low SDI regions. There were 0.99 (0.59 to 1.39) ASMR attributable to low-temperature in 1990, which increased to 1.05 (0.61-1.49) in 2019. While the ASDR due to low temperature declined from 22.03 (12.66 to 30.64) in 1990 to 20.43 (11.30 to 29.26) in 2019. Overall, the burden of CKD attributable to non-optimal temperatures has increased from 1990 to 2019. CKD due to hypertension and diabetes mellitus were the primary causes of CKD death attributable to non-optimum temperatures in 2019 with males and older adults being more susceptible to these temperatures.

CONCLUSIONS

The CKD burden due to high, low, and non-optimum temperatures varies considerably by regions and countries. The burden of CKD attributable to high temperature has been increasing since 1990.

Type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2.5: A global burden study from 1990 to 2019

BACKGROUND

Long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) is associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, limited data on trends in the global burden of T2D attributed to PM_2.5, particularly in different regions by social-economic levels. We evaluated the spatio-temporal changes in the disease burden of T2D attributed to PM_2.5 from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and regions with different socio-demographic indexes (SDI).

METHODS

This is a retrospective analysis with data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD2019) database. The burden of T2D attributed to PM_2.5, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate (ASDR) were estimated according to sex, age, nationality and SDI. The annual percentage change (APCs) and the average annual percentage change (AAPCs) were calculated by using the Joinpoint model to evaluate the changing trend of ASMR and ASDR attributed to PM_2.5 from 1990 to 2019. The Gaussian process regression model was used to estimate the relationship of SDI with ASMR and ASDR.

RESULTS

Overall, the global burden of T2D attributable to PM_2.5 increased significantly since 1990, particularly in the elderly, men, Africa, Asia and low-middle SDI regions. The ASMR and ASDR of T2D attributable to PM_2.5 in 2019 were 2.47 (95% CI: 1.71, 3.24) per 100,000 population and 108.98 (95% CI: 74.06, 147.23) per 100,000 population, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the global ASMR and ASDR of T2D attributed to T2D increased by 57.32% and 86.75%, respectively. The global AAPCs of ASMR and ASDR were 1.57 (95% CI: 1.46, 1.68) and 2.17 (95% CI: 2.02, 2.32), respectively. Declining trends were observed in North America, South America, Europe, Australia, and other regions with high SDI.

CONCLUSIONS

Over this 30-years study, the global T2D burden attributable to PM_2.5 has increased particularly in regions with low-middle SDI. PM_2.5 remains a great concern on the global burden of diabetes.