Why Popper can't resolve the debate over global warming: Problems with the uses of philosophy of science in the media and public framing of the science of global warming

A notable feature in the public framing of debates involving the science of Anthropogenic Global Warming are appeals to uncritical 'positivist' images of the ideal scientific method. Versions of Sir Karl Popper's philosophy of falsification appear most frequently, featuring in many Web sites and broader media. This use of pop philosophy of science forms part of strategies used by critics, mainly from conservative political backgrounds, to manufacture doubt, by setting unrealistic standards for sound science, in the veracity of science of Anthropogenic Global Warming. It will be shown, nevertheless, that prominent supporters of Anthropogenic Global Warming science also often use similar references to Popper to support their claims. It will also be suggested that this pattern reflects longer traditions of the use of Popperian philosophy of science in controversial settings, particularly in the United States, where appeals to the authority of science to legitimize policy have been most common. It will be concluded that studies of the science of Anthropogenic Global Warming debate would benefit from taking greater interest in questions raised by un-reflexive and politically expedient public understanding(s) of the philosophy of science of both critics and supporters of the science of Anthropogenic Global Warming.

Competition and facilitation may lead to asymmetric range shift dynamics with climate change

Forecasts of widespread range shifts with climate change stem from assumptions that climate drives species' distributions. However, local adaptation and biotic interactions also influence range limits and thus may impact range shifts. Despite the potential importance of these factors, few studies have directly tested their effects on performance at range limits. We address how population-level variation and biotic interactions may affect range shifts by transplanting seeds and seedlings of western North American conifers of different origin populations into different competitive neighborhoods within and beyond their elevational ranges and monitoring their performance. We find evidence that competition with neighboring trees limits performance within current ranges, but that interactions between adults and juveniles switch from competitive to facilitative at upper range limits. Local adaptation had weaker effects on performance that did not predictably vary with range position or seed origin. Our findings suggest that competitive interactions may slow species turnover within forests at lower range limits, whereas facilitative interactions may accelerate the pace of tree expansions upward near timberline.

Plant response to a global greenhouse event 56 million years ago

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

The fossil record provides information about the long-term response of plants to CO2-induced climate change. The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), a 200000-yr-long period of rapid carbon release and warming that occurred ∼56 million years ago, is analogous to future anthropogenic global warming.

METHODS

We collected plant macrofossils in the Bighorn Basin, Wyoming, United States, from a period spanning the PETM and studied changes in floristic composition. We also compiled and summarized published records of floristic change during the PETM.

KEY RESULTS

There was radical floristic change in the Bighorn Basin during the PETM reflecting local or regional extirpation of mesophytic plants, notably conifers, and colonization of the area by thermophilic and dry-tolerant species, especially Fabaceae. This floristic change largely reversed itself as the PETM ended, though some immigrant species persisted and some Paleocene species never returned. Less detailed records from other parts of the world show regional variation in floristic response, but are mostly consistent with the Bighorn Basin trends.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite geologically rapid extirpation, colonization, and recolonization, we detected little extinction during the PETM, suggesting the rate of climate change did not exceed the dispersal capacity of terrestrial plants. Extrapolating the response of plants from the PETM to future anthropogenic climate change likely underestimates risk because rates of climate change during the PETM may have been an order of magnitude slower than current rates of change and because the abundant, widespread species common as fossils are likely resistant to extinction.