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Chang AY, Aaby P, Avidan MS, Benn CS, Bertozzi SM, Blatt L, Chumakov K, Khader SA, Kottilil S, Nekkar M, Netea MG, Sparrow A, Jamison DT. One vaccine to counter many diseases? Modeling the economics of oral polio vaccine against child mortality and COVID-19. Front Public Health 2022; 10:967920. [PMID: 36276367 PMCID: PMC9580701 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.967920] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/13/2022] [Accepted: 08/31/2022] [Indexed: 01/25/2023] Open
Abstract
Introduction Recent reviews summarize evidence that some vaccines have heterologous or non-specific effects (NSE), potentially offering protection against multiple pathogens. Numerous economic evaluations examine vaccines' pathogen-specific effects, but less than a handful focus on NSE. This paper addresses that gap by reporting economic evaluations of the NSE of oral polio vaccine (OPV) against under-five mortality and COVID-19. Materials and methods We studied two settings: (1) reducing child mortality in a high-mortality setting (Guinea-Bissau) and (2) preventing COVID-19 in India. In the former, the intervention involves three annual campaigns in which children receive OPV incremental to routine immunization. In the latter, a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model was developed to estimate the population benefits of two scenarios, in which OPV would be co-administered alongside COVID-19 vaccines. Incremental cost-effectiveness and benefit-cost ratios were modeled for ranges of intervention effectiveness estimates to supplement the headline numbers and account for heterogeneity and uncertainty. Results For child mortality, headline cost-effectiveness was $650 per child death averted. For COVID-19, assuming OPV had 20% effectiveness, incremental cost per death averted was $23,000-65,000 if it were administered simultaneously with a COVID-19 vaccine <200 days into a wave of the epidemic. If the COVID-19 vaccine availability were delayed, the cost per averted death would decrease to $2600-6100. Estimated benefit-to-cost ratios vary but are consistently high. Discussion Economic evaluation suggests the potential of OPV to efficiently reduce child mortality in high mortality environments. Likewise, within a broad range of assumed effect sizes, OPV (or another vaccine with NSE) could play an economically attractive role against COVID-19 in countries facing COVID-19 vaccine delays. Funding The contribution by DTJ was supported through grants from Trond Mohn Foundation (BFS2019MT02) and Norad (RAF-18/0009) through the Bergen Center for Ethics and Priority Setting.
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Affiliation(s)
- Angela Y. Chang
- Danish Institute for Advanced Study, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark,Department of Clinical Research, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark,*Correspondence: Angela Y. Chang
| | - Peter Aaby
- Bandim Health Project, Department of Clinical Research, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark,Bandim Health Project, Bissau, Guinea-Bissau
| | - Michael S. Avidan
- Department of Anesthesiology, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO, United States
| | - Christine S. Benn
- Danish Institute for Advanced Study, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark,Bandim Health Project, Department of Clinical Research, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark,Bandim Health Project, Bissau, Guinea-Bissau
| | - Stefano M. Bertozzi
- School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States,School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States,Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Cuernavaca, Mexico
| | - Lawrence Blatt
- Aligos Therapeutics, South San Francisco, CA, United States,Global Virus Network, Baltimore, MD, United States
| | - Konstantin Chumakov
- Global Virus Network, Baltimore, MD, United States,Food and Drug Administration Office of Vaccine Research and Review, Silver Spring, MD, United States
| | - Shabaana A. Khader
- Department of Molecular Microbiology, Washington University in St. Louis School of Medicine, St. Louis, MO, United States
| | - Shyam Kottilil
- Global Virus Network, Baltimore, MD, United States,Institute of Human Virology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, United States
| | - Madhav Nekkar
- School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States
| | - Mihai G. Netea
- Global Virus Network, Baltimore, MD, United States,Department of Internal Medicine and Radboud Center for Infectious Diseases, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, Netherlands,Department of Immunology and Metabolism, Life and Medical Sciences Institute, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - Annie Sparrow
- Department of Population Health Science and Policy, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States
| | - Dean T. Jamison
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics and Institute for Global Health Sciences, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, United States
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