Modeling the Covid-19 epidemic using time series econometrics

The classic "logistic" model has provided a realistic model of the behaviour of Covid-19 in China and many East Asian countries. Once these countries passed the peak, the daily case count fell back, mirroring its initial climb in a symmetric way, just as the classic model predicts. However, in Italy and Spain and most other Western countries, the first wave of the epidemic was very different. The daily count fell back gradually from the peak but remained stubbornly high. The reason for the divergence from the classical model remain unclear. We take an empirical stance on this issue and develop a model framework based upon the statistical characteristics of the time series. With the possible exception of China, the workhorse logistic model is decisively rejected against more flexible alternatives.

Phylogenetic analysis and positive-selection site detecting of vascular endothelial growth factor family in vertebrates

Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), known to play an important role in vascular homeostasis, vascular integrity and angiogenesis, is little known about the evolutionary relationship of its five members especially the role of gene duplication and natural selection in the evolution of the VEGF family. In this study, seventy-five full-length cDNA sequences from 33 vertebrate species were extracted from the NCBI's GenBank, UniProt protein database and the Ensembl database. By phylogenetic analyses, we investigated the origin, conservation, and evolution of the VEGFs. Five VEGF family members in vertebrates might be formed by gene duplication. The inferred evolutionary transitions that separate members which belong to different gene clusters correlated with changes in functional properties. Selection analysis and protein structure analysis were combined to explain the relationship of the site-specific evolution in the vertebrate VEGF family. Eleven positive selection sites, one transmembrane region and the active sites were detected in this process.