Climate Trends and Consumption of Foods and Beverages by Processing Level in Mexican Cities

Background: Little is known about the potential impact of climate change on food systems and diet. We aimed to estimate the association of changes in rainfall and temperatures with consumption of unprocessed and processed foods among residents of Mexican cities by climate region.

Methods: We analyzed 3,312 participants of the 2012 Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey with dietary intake and sociodemographic information linked to historical rainfall and temperature data collected by the Mexican National Weather Service. We classified foods as unprocessed, processed, or ultra-processed. We performed multilevel linear regression to estimate the association of annual change in rainfalls (for each 0.5 mm decrease) and temperatures (for each 0.1°C increase) at municipality level over the past 5 years with consumption of processed and unprocessed foods measured as the contribution to total energy intake. We investigated whether associations differed by climate region (tropical, temperate, and arid).

Results: Each 0.5 mm annual decrease in precipitation was associated with lower consumption of unprocessed foods and higher consumption of ultra-processed foods [mean differences in percent contribution to total energy intake −0.009% (95% CI: −0.019, < −0.001) and 0.011% (95% CI: 0.001, 0.021), respectively]. Each 0.1 degree Celsius annual increase in temperature was also associated with lower consumption of unprocessed and higher consumption of ultra-processed foods [mean differences in percent contribution to total energy intake was −0.03 (95% CI: −0.05, −0.01) and 0.03% (95% CI: <0.01, 0.05)]. When stratified by climate region these associations were only observed in tropical regions.

Conclusions: Decreases in rainfalls and increases in temperature were associated with lower consumption of unprocessed foods but higher consumption of ultra-processed foods, especially in tropical regions. Previous studies have established how food production affects the climate, our study suggests that climate change could, in turn, reinforce modern food production, closing a vicious circle with clear negative implications for planetary health.

IASI-Derived Sea Surface Temperature Data Set for Climate Studies

Sea surface temperature (SST) is an essential climate variable, that is directly used in climate monitoring. Although satellite measurements can offer continuous global coverage, obtaining a long-term homogeneous satellite-derived SST data set suitable for climate studies based on a single instrument is still a challenge. In this work, we assess a homogeneous SST data set derived from reprocessed Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) level-1 (L1C) radiance data. The SST is computed using Planck's Law and simple atmospheric corrections. We assess the data set using the ERA5 reanalysis and the EUMETSAT-released IASI level-2 SST product. Over the entire period, the reprocessed IASI SST shows a mean global difference with ERA5 close to zero, a mean absolute bias under 0.5°C, with a SD of difference around 0.3°C and a correlation coefficient over 0.99. In addition, the reprocessed data set shows a stable bias and SD, which is an advantage for climate studies. The interannual variability and trends were compared with other SST data sets: ERA5, Hadley Centre's SST (HadISST), and NOAA's Optimal Interpolation SST Analysis (OISSTv2). We found that the reprocessed SST data set is able to capture the patterns of interannual variability well, showing the same areas of high interannual variability (>1.5°C), including over the tropical Pacific in January corresponding to the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Although the period studied is relatively short, we demonstrate that the IASI data set reproduces the same trend patterns found in the other data sets (i.e., cooling trend in the North Atlantic, warming trend over the Mediterranean).

Towards New Horizons: Climate Trends in Europe Increase the Environmental Suitability for Permanent Populations of Hyalomma marginatum (Ixodidae)

Ticks and tick-borne pathogens are changing their current distribution, presumably due to the impact of the climate trends. On a large scale, these trends are changing the environmental suitability of Hyalomma marginatum, the main vector of several pathogens affecting human health. We generated annual models of environmental suitability for the tick in the period 1970-2018, using harmonic regression-derived data of the daily maximum and minimum temperature, soil moisture and water vapor deficit. The results demonstrate an expansion of the suitable area in Mediterranean countries, southeast central Europe and south of the Balkans. Also, the models allowed us to interpret the impact of the ecological variables on these changes. We deduced that (i) maximum temperature was significant for all of the biogeographical categories, (ii) soil humidity has an influence in the Mediterranean climate areas, and (iii) the minimum temperature and deficit water vapor did not influence the environmental suitability of the species. The conclusions clearly show that climate change could create new areas in Europe with suitable climates for H. marginatum, while keeping its "historical" distribution in the Mediterranean. Therefore, it is necessary to further explore possible risk areas for H. marginatum and its associated pathogens.

A 40-y record reveals gradual Antarctic sea ice increases followed by decreases at rates far exceeding the rates seen in the Arctic

A newly completed 40-y record of satellite observations is used to quantify changes in Antarctic sea ice coverage since the late 1970s. Sea ice spreads over vast areas and has major impacts on the rest of the climate system, reflecting solar radiation and restricting ocean/atmosphere exchanges. The satellite record reveals that a gradual, decades-long overall increase in Antarctic sea ice extents reversed in 2014, with subsequent rates of decrease in 2014–2017 far exceeding the more widely publicized decay rates experienced in the Arctic. The rapid decreases reduced the Antarctic sea ice extents to their lowest values in the 40-y record, both on a yearly average basis (record low in 2017) and on a monthly basis (record low in February 2017).

Following over 3 decades of gradual but uneven increases in sea ice coverage, the yearly average Antarctic sea ice extents reached a record high of 12.8 × 10⁶ km² in 2014, followed by a decline so precipitous that they reached their lowest value in the 40-y 1979–2018 satellite multichannel passive-microwave record, 10.7 × 10⁶ km², in 2017. In contrast, it took the Arctic sea ice cover a full 3 decades to register a loss that great in yearly average ice extents. Still, when considering the 40-y record as a whole, the Antarctic sea ice continues to have a positive overall trend in yearly average ice extents, although at 11,300 ± 5,300 km²⋅y⁻¹, this trend is only 50% of the trend for 1979–2014, before the precipitous decline. Four of the 5 sectors into which the Antarctic sea ice cover is divided all also have 40-y positive trends that are well reduced from their 2014–2017 values. The one anomalous sector in this regard, the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas, has a 40-y negative trend, with the yearly average ice extents decreasing overall in the first 3 decades, reaching a minimum in 2007, and exhibiting an overall upward trend since 2007 (i.e., reflecting a reversal in the opposite direction from the other 4 sectors and the Antarctic sea ice cover as a whole).

Assessment of Risk, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change by the Health Sector in Madagascar

Madagascar is cited as one of the most vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change, with significant impacts to the health of its population. In this study, the vulnerability of Madagascar’s health sector to climate change was assessed and appropriate adaptation measures were identified. In order to assess climate risks, vulnerability and identify adaptation options, the Madagascar Ministry of Public Health as well as the National Meteorological and Hydrological Service worked in close collaboration with a team of local experts to conduct a literature review, field surveys, and analyses of current and future climate and health trends. Four climate-sensitive diseases of primary concern are described in the study: acute respiratory infections (ARI), diarrhea, malnutrition, and malaria. Baseline conditions of these four diseases from 2000 to 2014 show acute respiratory infections and diarrheal diseases are increasing in incidence; while incidence of malnutrition and malaria decreased over this period. To assess future impacts in Madagascar, this baseline information was used with climate projections for the two scenarios—RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5—for the periods 2016–2035, 2036–2070 and 2071–2100. Future climate conditions are shown to exacerbate and increase the incidence of all four climate sensitive diseases. Further analysis of the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to the climate hazards suggests that the health sector in four regions of Madagascar is particularly vulnerable. The study recommends adaptation measures to improve the monitoring and early warning systems for climate sensitive diseases, as well as to reduce population vulnerability.

Deconstructing Ixodes ricinus: a partial matrix model allowing mapping of tick development, mortality and activity rates

A stage-structured Leslie matrix model of a partial, discrete population of Ixodes ricinus (Linnaeus) (Ixodida: Ixodidae) ticks was developed to elucidate the impact of climate trends on the distribution and phenology of this species in the western Palaearctic. The model calculates development and mortality rates for each instar and evaluates recruitment rates based on the development of the tick population. The model captures the changes in development and mortality rates, providing a coherent index of performance correlated with the tick's geographic range. Maximum development rates are recorded for latitudes south of 36 °N and are spatially correlated with sites of maximum temperature, highest saturation deficit and highest mortality. The maximum available developmental time (the total annual time during which temperature allows development) for I. ricinus in the western Palaearctic is < 45% of the total year. North of 60 °N, available developmental time decreases sharply to only 15% of the year. The latitudinal boundary at which survival rates sharply drop is 43-46 °N, clearly delimiting the classically recognized extent of the main tick populations. The pattern of activity for larval-nymphal synchrony shows a clear west-east pattern. The model demonstrates the impact of climate according to tick stage and geographic location, and provides a practical framework for testing how the tick's lifecycle is affected by climate change.