1
|
Snijders BMG, Kempen TGH, Aubert CE, Koek HL, Dalleur O, Donzé J, Rodondi N, O'Mahony D, Gillespie U, Knol W. Drug-related readmissions in older hospitalized adults: External validation and updating of OPERAM DRA prediction tool. J Am Geriatr Soc 2023; 71:3848-3856. [PMID: 37615214 DOI: 10.1111/jgs.18575] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/17/2023] [Revised: 07/28/2023] [Accepted: 08/09/2023] [Indexed: 08/25/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Drug-related readmissions (DRAs) are defined as rehospitalizations with an adverse drug event as their main or significant contributory cause. DRAs represent a major adverse health burden for older patients. A prediction model which identified older hospitalized patients at high risk of a DRA <1 year was previously developed using the OPERAM trial cohort, a European cluster randomized controlled trial including older hospitalized patients with multimorbidity and polypharmacy. This study has performed external validation and updated the prediction model consequently. METHODS The MedBridge trial cohort (a multicenter cluster randomized crossover trial performed in Sweden) was used as a validation cohort. It consisted of 2516 hospitalized patients aged ≥65 years. Model performance was assessed by: (1) discriminative power, assessed by the C-statistic with a 95% confidence interval (CI); (2) calibration, assessed by visual examination of the calibration plot and use of the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test; and (3) overall accuracy, assessed by the scaled Brier score. Several updating methods were carried out to improve model performance. RESULTS In total, 2516 older patients were included in the validation cohort, of whom 582 (23.1%) experienced a DRA <1 year. In the validation cohort, the original model showed a good overall accuracy (scaled Brier score 0.03), but discrimination was moderate (C-statistic 0.62 [95% CI 0.59-0.64]), and calibration showed underestimation of risks. In the final updated model, the predictor "cirrhosis with portal hypertension" was removed and "polypharmacy" was added. This improved the model's discriminative capability to a C-statistic of 0.64 (95% CI 0.59-0.70) and enhanced calibration plots. Overall accuracy remained good. CONCLUSIONS The updated OPERAM DRA prediction model may be a useful tool in clinical practice to estimate the risk of DRAs in older hospitalized patients subsequent to discharge. Our efforts lay the groundwork for the future development of models with even better performance.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Birgitta M G Snijders
- Department of Geriatrics, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Thomas G H Kempen
- Department of Pharmacy, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
- Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Clinical Pharmacology, Utrecht Institute of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Carole E Aubert
- Department of General Internal Medicine, Bern University Hospital, Inselspital, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Institute of Primary Health Care (BIHAM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Huiberdina L Koek
- Department of Geriatrics, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Olivia Dalleur
- Clinical Pharmacy Research Group, Louvain Drug Research Institute, Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium
- Pharmacy Department, Cliniques Universitaires Saint-Luc, Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Jacques Donzé
- Department of General Internal Medicine, Bern University Hospital, Inselspital, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Department of Internal Medicine, Neuchatel Hospital Network, Neuchâtel, Switzerland
- Division of internal medicine, Lausanne University Hospital, CHUV, Lausanne, Switzerland
- Division of General Internal Medicine and Primary Care, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Nicolas Rodondi
- Department of General Internal Medicine, Bern University Hospital, Inselspital, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Institute of Primary Health Care (BIHAM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Denis O'Mahony
- Department of Medicine (Geriatrics), University College Cork, Cork, Ireland
- Department of Geriatric Medicine, Cork University Hospital, Cork, Ireland
| | - Ulrika Gillespie
- Department of Pharmacy, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
- Hospital Pharmacy Department, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Wilma Knol
- Department of Geriatrics, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| |
Collapse
|