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Sun Z, He G, Huang N, Chen H, Zhang S, Zhao Z, Zhao Y, Yang G, Yang S, Xiong H, Karuppiah T, Kumar SS, He J, Xiong C. Impact of the Inflow Population From Outbreak Areas on the COVID-19 Epidemic in Yunnan Province and the Recommended Control Measures: A Preliminary Study. Front Public Health 2020; 8:609974. [PMID: 33344408 PMCID: PMC7738349 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2020.609974] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/24/2020] [Accepted: 11/11/2020] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: COVID-19 developed into a global pandemic in 2020 and poses challenges regarding the prevention and control capabilities of countries. A large number of inbound travelers from other regions could lead to a renewed outbreak of COVID-19 in the local regions. Globally, as a result of the imbalance in the control of the epidemic, all countries are facing the risk of a renewed COVID-19 outbreak brought about by travelers from epidemic areas. Therefore, studies on a proper management of the inbound travelers are urgent. Methods: We collected a total of 4,733,414 inbound travelers and 174 COVID-19 diagnosed patients in Yunnan province from 21 January 2020 to 20 February 2020. Data on place of origin, travel history, age, and gender, as well as whether they had suspected clinical manifestations for inbound travelers in Yunnan were collected. The impact of inbound travelers on the local epidemic was analyzed with a collinear statistical analysis and the effect of the control measures on the epidemic was evaluated with a sophisticated modeling approach. Results: Of the 174 COVID-19 patients, 60.9% were not from Yunnan, and 76.4% had a history of travel in Hubei. The amount of new daily cases in Yunnan was significant correlated with the number of inbound travelers from Hubei and suspected cases among them. Using Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Recovered (SEIR) model analysis, we found that the prevention and control measures dropped the local R0 down to 1.07 in Yunnan province. Conclusions: Our preliminary analysis showed that the proper management of inbound travelers from outbreak areas has a significantly positive effect on the prevention and control of the virus. In the process of resettlement, some effective measures taken by Yunnan province may provide an important reference for preventing the renewed COVID-19 outbreak in other regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhong Sun
- Department of Biomedical Science, Faculty of Medicine & Health Sciences, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang, Malaysia
| | - Guozhong He
- School of Public Health, Kunming Medical University, Kunming, China
| | - Ninghao Huang
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.,Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Hongyu Chen
- School of Public Health, Kunming Medical University, Kunming, China
| | - Shuwei Zhang
- School of Public Health, Kunming Medical University, Kunming, China
| | - Zizhao Zhao
- School of Public Health, Kunming Medical University, Kunming, China
| | - Yao Zhao
- School of Public Health, Kunming Medical University, Kunming, China
| | - Guang Yang
- School of Public Health, Kunming Medical University, Kunming, China
| | - Songwang Yang
- School of Public Health, Kunming Medical University, Kunming, China
| | - Haiyan Xiong
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.,Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Thilakavathy Karuppiah
- Department of Biomedical Science, Faculty of Medicine & Health Sciences, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang, Malaysia.,Genetics and Regenerative Medicine Research Group, Faculty of Medicine & Health Sciences, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang, Malaysia
| | - S Suresh Kumar
- Genetics and Regenerative Medicine Research Group, Faculty of Medicine & Health Sciences, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang, Malaysia.,Department of Medical Microbiology and Parasitology, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang, Malaysia
| | - Jibo He
- Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Yunnan Province, Kunming, China
| | - Chenglong Xiong
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.,Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
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