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Clare FC, Halder JB, Daniel O, Bielby J, Semenov MA, Jombart T, Loyau A, Schmeller DS, Cunningham AA, Rowcliffe M, Garner TWJ, Bosch J, Fisher MC. Climate forcing of an emerging pathogenic fungus across a montane multi-host community. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2017; 371:rstb.2015.0454. [PMID: 28080980 PMCID: PMC5095533 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2015.0454] [Citation(s) in RCA: 47] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 08/22/2016] [Indexed: 01/23/2023] Open
Abstract
Changes in the timings of seasonality as a result of anthropogenic climate change are predicted to occur over the coming decades. While this is expected to have widespread impacts on the dynamics of infectious disease through environmental forcing, empirical data are lacking. Here, we investigated whether seasonality, specifically the timing of spring ice-thaw, affected susceptibility to infection by the emerging pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) across a montane community of amphibians that are suffering declines and extirpations as a consequence of this infection. We found a robust temporal association between the timing of the spring thaw and Bd infection in two host species, where we show that an early onset of spring forced high prevalences of infection. A third highly susceptible species (the midwife toad, Alytes obstetricans) maintained a high prevalence of infection independent of time of spring thaw. Our data show that perennially overwintering midwife toad larvae may act as a year-round reservoir of infection with variation in time of spring thaw determining the extent to which infection spills over into sympatric species. We used future temperature projections based on global climate models to demonstrate that the timing of spring thaw in this region will advance markedly by the 2050s, indicating that climate change will further force the severity of infection. Our findings on the effect of annual variability on multi-host infection dynamics show that the community-level impact of fungal infectious disease on biodiversity will need to be re-evaluated in the face of climate change.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Frances C Clare
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK .,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London W2 1PG, UK
| | - Julia B Halder
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London W2 1PG, UK
| | - Olivia Daniel
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, SL5 9PU, UK
| | - Jon Bielby
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK
| | - Mikhail A Semenov
- Computational and Systems Biology, Rothamsted Research, West Common, Harpenden, Hertfordshire AL5 2JQ, UK
| | - Thibaut Jombart
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London W2 1PG, UK
| | - Adeline Loyau
- Université de Toulouse; UPS, INPT; EcoLab (Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), 118 route de Narbonne, 31062 Toulouse, France.,Department of Conservation Biology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Permoserstrasse 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany.,Department of System Ecotoxicology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Permoserstrasse 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany
| | - Dirk S Schmeller
- Université de Toulouse; UPS, INPT; EcoLab (Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), 118 route de Narbonne, 31062 Toulouse, France.,Department of Conservation Biology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Permoserstrasse 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany
| | - Andrew A Cunningham
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK
| | - Marcus Rowcliffe
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK
| | - Trenton W J Garner
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK
| | - Jaime Bosch
- Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, CSIC, Jose Gutierrez Abascal, 2 28006, Madrid, Spain
| | - Matthew C Fisher
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London W2 1PG, UK
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