Unexposed populations and potential COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths in European countries as per data up to 21 November 2021

We estimate the potential remaining COVID-19 hospitalisation and death burdens in 19 European countries by estimating the proportion of each country's population that has acquired immunity to severe disease through infection or vaccination. Our results suggest many European countries could still face high burdens of hospitalisations and deaths, particularly those with lower vaccination coverage, less historical transmission and/or older populations. Continued non-pharmaceutical interventions and efforts to achieve high vaccination coverage are required in these countries to limit severe COVID-19 outcomes.

Asymptomatic Transmission and the Infection Fatality Risk for COVID-19: Implications for School Reopening

Asymptomatic infection occurs for numerous respiratory viral diseases, including influenza and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We seek to clarify confusion in 3 areas: age-specific risks of transmission and/or disease; various definitions for the COVID-19 "mortality rate," each useful for specific purposes; and implications for student return strategies from preschool through university settings.

A primer on Bayesian estimation of prevalence of COVID-19 patient outcomes

A common research task in COVID-19 studies often involves the prevalence estimation of certain medical outcomes. Although point estimates with confidence intervals are typically obtained, a better approach is to estimate the entire posterior probability distribution of the prevalence, which can be easily accomplished with a standard Bayesian approach using binomial likelihood and its conjugate beta prior distribution. Using two recently published COVID-19 data sets, we performed Bayesian analysis to estimate the prevalence of infection fatality in Iceland and asymptomatic children in the United States.