Evaluation and Prediction of Ecological Sustainability in the Upper Reaches of the Yellow River Based on Improved Three-Dimensional Ecological Footprint Model

Ecological footprint is an important method for regional sustainable assessment. Scientific assessment of the ecological sustainability of the upper reaches of the Yellow River is of great significance to the realization of a win-win situation for the ecological environment protection and economic development of the entire Yellow River basin. Based on the improved three-dimensional ecological footprint model, this paper measures and spatially portrays the ecological footprint per capita depth (EF_depth), ecological footprint per capita size (EF_size), and ecological footprint per capita 3D (per capita EF_3D) of the upper Yellow River region from 2011 to 2020. Then, the ecological footprint diversity index (EFDI), integrated land stress index (I_{comprehensive}), ecological stress index (ETI), and ecological coordination coefficient (ECC) are used to evaluate its ecological safety and sustainability. The results of the study indicate that: (1) From 2011 to 2020, the three-dimensional ecological footprint of all provinces and regions in the upper reaches of the Yellow River was in a fluctuating upward trend as a whole, and NMG had the highest growth, from 2.6256 hm²/person to 3.3163 hm²/person, with an average annual growth rate of 2.36%. (2) In the past 10 years, the ETI index of the upper reaches of the Yellow River increased from 2.13 in 2011 to 3.28 in 2020, which is a serious insecurity. The EFDI index fluctuates slightly, but increases year by year. (3) The capital flow occupancy rate of the upper reaches of the Yellow River has been above 86.67%, and fluctuated during the study period, reaching a peak of 88.61% in 2020. (4) In the four periods, the number of land comprehensive pressure states and ecological security pressure states of the provinces and regions in the upper reaches of the Yellow River show a distribution pattern that the northeast region is better than the southwest region. This study is expected to provide scientific reference for land use in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, building the ecological security barrier of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau, and promoting sustainable socio-economic development.

Ecosystem health, ecosystem services, and the well-being of humans and the rest of nature

An ecosystem is healthy if it is active, maintains its organization and autonomy over time, and is resilient to stress. Healthy ecosystems provide human well-being via ecosystem services, which are produced in interaction with human, social, and built capital. These services are affected by different ecosystem stewardship schemes. Therefore, society should be aiming for ecosystem health stewardship at all levels to maintain and improve ecosystem services. We review the relationship between ecosystem health and ecosystem services, based on a logic chain framework starting with (1) a development or conservation policy, (2) a management decision or origin of the driver of change, (3) the driver of change itself, (4) the change in ecosystem health, (5) the change in the provision of ecosystem services, and (6) the change in their value to humans. We review two case studies to demonstrate the application of this framework. We analyzed 6,131 records from the Ecosystem Services Valuation Database (ESVD) and found that in approximately 58% of the records data on ecosystem health were lacking. Finally, we describe how the United Nations' System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) incorporates ecosystem health as part of efforts to account for natural capital appreciation or depreciation at the national level. We also provide recommendations for improving this system.

Exploring the Effects of Natural Capital Depletion and Natural Disasters on Happiness and Human Wellbeing: A Study in China

Since recent climate change has caused more natural disasters (NDs) than ever before, there is a worldwide concern that this could have both short-term and long-term economic and health consequences. This is perhaps the first attempt to explore the effects of natural capital (NC) and NDs on the human health and wellbeing of China over the period 1993-2020. The study has compiled data from World Bank, World Value Survey, UNDP, EM-DAT, and IMF for analysis. The empirical analysis is done by using the autoregressive distributed lag model. Empirical results prove that NC has a positive and significant effect on happiness, health, and human wellbeing in the long run. The results also show that NDs significantly reduce happiness and human wellbeing in the long run. The results recommend some important policy implications.

Spatial cost-benefit analysis of blue restoration and factors driving net benefits globally

Marine coastal ecosystems, commonly referred to as blue ecosystems, provide valuable services to society but are under increasing threat worldwide due to a variety of drivers, including eutrophication, development, land-use change, land reclamation, and climate change. Ecological restoration is sometimes necessary to facilitate recovery in coastal ecosystems. Blue restoration (i.e., in marine coastal systems) is a developing field, and projects to date have been small scale and expensive, leading to the perception that restoration may not be economically viable. We conducted a global cost-benefit analysis to determine the net benefits of restoring coral reef, mangrove, saltmarsh, and seagrass ecosystems, where the benefit is defined as the monetary value of ecosystem services. We estimated costs from published restoration case studies and used an adjusted-value-transfer method to assign benefit values to these case studies. Benefit values were estimated as the monetary value provided by ecosystem services of the restored habitats. Benefits outweighed costs (i.e., there were positive net benefits) for restoration of all blue ecosystems. Mean benefit:cost ratios for ecosystem restoration were eight to 10 times higher than prior studies of coral reef and seagrass restoration, most likely due to the more recent lower cost estimates we used. Among ecosystems, saltmarsh had the greatest net benefits followed by mangrove; coral reef and seagrass ecosystems had lower net benefits. In general, restoration in nations with middle incomes had higher (eight times higher in coral reefs and 40 times higher in mangroves) net benefits than those with high incomes. Within an ecosystem type, net benefit varied with restoration technique (coral reef and saltmarsh), ecosystem service produced (mangrove and saltmarsh), and project duration (seagrass). These results challenge the perceptions of the low economic viability of blue restoration and should encourage further targeted investment in this field.

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Ecosystem Health of China's Provinces Based on SDGs

In the context of increasing ecological scarcity, maintaining the balance between natural and artificial capital has become a popular research topic in the field of ecosystem health. From the perspective of coordinating natural and artificial capital and maintaining the balance between human systems and the Earth's ecosystem, the Ecosystem Health Index (EHI) was developed on the basis of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The EHI consists of the Social Progress Index (SPI), Economic Development Index (EDI), Natural Environment Index (NEI), and a pressure adjustment coefficient. Comprehensive indicator assessment models were used to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution of the EHIs in 30 of China's provinces from 2013 to 2019. A three-dimensional judgment matrix was used to classify the 30 provinces into four basic types. The results show the following: (1) From 2013 to 2019, the EHIs of all provinces improved to different degrees, with 19 provinces achieving a healthy state. (2) Spatially, the EHI showed some regional aggregation in 2013. Provinces with high EHIs were concentrated in the west, followed by those in the east, and those in the central provinces had the lowest EHIs. However, the differences between regions had narrowed by 2019. (3) The spatial distribution patterns of the NEI and the EDI varied widely, and most provinces did not reach a high level of coordination between natural and artificial capital. (4) The environmental pressure in all provinces, except Liaoning, decreased over time. In some cases, excessive pressure decreased the pressure-adjusted EHI, regardless of the EHI value. (5) According to the results of the ecosystem health classification in each province, the factors that hinder ecosystem health vary from place to place.

Tackling climate change through craft development: The case of rural women in uPhongolo Local Municipality

Climate change is a global phenomenon that is affecting all humanity. Bearing the harshest brunt of environmental, social and economic shocks are the world's poorest and those in vulnerable conditions such as women in rural areas. Rural areas have experienced a decline in the dependence on agriculture and livestock farming because of climate change, thus forcing people especially women to look for alternative sources of sustainable livelihoods (SLs). The objective of this study was to establish the extent to which craft development can be used as an alternative livelihood by women in uPhongolo Local Municipality in KwaZulu-Natal to mitigate the effects of climate change. This study adopted a SL theoretical framework to explain how women in the study area used craft development to improve their livelihoods. A survey method was adopted for this study using both qualitative and quantitative approaches. Non-probability sampling strategy using a purposive sampling technique was used to select 50 women crafters from uPhongolo Local Municipality. Face-to-face interviews using questionnaires, which had both closed and open-ended questions, were conducted. These allowed for the collection of numeric data and simultaneously allowed respondents to express themselves and elaborate on the structured questions. The Software Programme for Social Science (SPSS) was used to analyse quantitative data that had been generated using structured interviews and categorised qualitative data. The findings indicated that innovative entrepreneurship using natural capital readily available in the area for craft development and linking the products to the market play a significant role in improving SLs of women in the study area. The study recommends that capacity-building programmes be provided to equip rural women with skills that would enhance their ability to respond to natural hazards such as climate change.

Systematic review of soil ecosystem services in tropical regions

Soil ecosystem service (SES) approaches evidence the importance of soil for human well-being, contribute to improving dialogue between science and decision-making and encourage the translation of scientific results into public policies. Herein, through systematic review, we assess the state of the art of SES approaches in tropical regions. Through this review, 41 publications were identified; while most of these studies considered SES, a lack of a consistent framework to define SES was apparent. Most studies measured soil natural capital and processes, while only three studies undertook monetary valuation. Although the number of publications increased (from 1 to 41), between 2001 and 2019, the total number of publications for tropical regions is still small. Countries with the largest number of publications were Brazil (n = 8), Colombia (n = 6) and Mexico (n = 4). This observation emphasizes an important knowledge gap pertaining to SES approaches and their link to tropical regions. With global momentum behind SES approaches, there is an opportunity to integrate SES approaches into policy and practice in tropical regions. The use of SES evaluation tools in tropical regions could transform how land use decisions are informed, mitigating soil degradation and protecting the ecosystems that soil underpins.

The economics of conservation debt: a natural capital approach to revealed valuation of ecological dynamics

Some species are valued for their direct usefulness to society, through immediate financial returns from market activities such as harvesting or ecotourism. But many are valued for their passive usefulness, i.e., their mere existence contributes to supporting, regulating or cultural environmental services that support human well-being. Hence, there is inherent social value to conserving such species as natural assets. However, such species are seldom priced as natural assets, and thus not accounted for in sustainability wealth measures because deriving non-market prices is challenging. We overcome this limitation by presenting a new approach for natural asset pricing of species with passive value that can be incorporated into national sustainability wealth accounting. We explicitly consider the relationship between prevailing institutions, species interactions, and ecosystem dynamics. Our approach is illustrated with the case of threatened woodland caribou in the Alberta Oil Sands. We show that conservation can be considered an investment while destructive activities can lead to a loss or conservation debt; and forgoing destructive activities can be considered a capital gain, increasing future wealth. Our approach reveals that caribou conservation in Alberta is leading to a conservation debt on the order of CA$800 million.

Using gross ecosystem product (GEP) to value nature in decision making

To achieve sustainable development, there is a pressing need to move beyond conventional economic measures like gross domestic product (GDP). We develop gross ecosystem product (GEP), a measure that summarizes the value of the contributions of nature to economic activity. We illustrate the calculation of GEP in Qinghai Province, China, to show that the approach is tractable both across China and globally. Known as the water tower of Asia, Qinghai is the source of the Mekong, Yangtze, and Yellow Rivers and nearly two-thirds of GEP derives from water-related values. GEP was greater than GDP in Qinghai in 2000, and was three-fourths as large as GDP in 2015. China is using GEP to guide investments in ecosystem conservation and restoration.

Gross domestic product (GDP) summarizes a vast amount of economic information in a single monetary metric that is widely used by decision makers around the world. However, GDP fails to capture fully the contributions of nature to economic activity and human well-being. To address this critical omission, we develop a measure of gross ecosystem product (GEP) that summarizes the value of ecosystem services in a single monetary metric. We illustrate the measurement of GEP through an application to the Chinese province of Qinghai, showing that the approach is tractable using available data. Known as the “water tower of Asia,” Qinghai is the source of the Mekong, Yangtze, and Yellow Rivers, and indeed, we find that water-related ecosystem services make up nearly two-thirds of the value of GEP for Qinghai. Importantly most of these benefits accrue downstream. In Qinghai, GEP was greater than GDP in 2000 and three-fourths as large as GDP in 2015 as its market economy grew. Large-scale investment in restoration resulted in improvements in the flows of ecosystem services measured in GEP (127.5%) over this period. Going forward, China is using GEP in decision making in multiple ways, as part of a transformation to inclusive, green growth. This includes investing in conservation of ecosystem assets to secure provision of ecosystem services through transregional compensation payments.

Approaches to Identify the Value of Seminatural Habitats for Conservation Biological Control

Invertebrates perform many vital functions in agricultural production, but many taxa are in decline, including pest natural enemies. Action is needed to increase their abundance if more sustainable agricultural systems are to be achieved. Conservation biological control (CBC) is a key component of integrated pest management yet has failed to be widely adopted in mainstream agriculture. Approaches to improving conservation biological control have been largely ad hoc. Two approaches are described to improve this process, one based upon pest natural enemy ecology and resource provision while the other focusses on the ecosystem service delivery using the QuESSA (Quantification of Ecological Services for Sustainable Agriculture) project as an example. In this project, a predictive scoring system was developed to show the potential of five seminatural habitat categories to provide biological control, from which predictive maps were generated for Europe. Actual biological control was measured in a series of case studies using sentinel systems (insect or seed prey), trade-offs between ecosystem services were explored, and heatmaps of biological control were generated. The overall conclusion from the QuESSA project was that results were context specific, indicating that more targeted approaches to CBC are needed. This may include designing new habitats or modifying existing habitats to support the types of natural enemies required for specific crops or pests.

Benthic-based contributions to climate change mitigation and adaptation

Innovative solutions to improve the condition and resilience of ecosystems are needed to address societal challenges and pave the way towards a climate-resilient future. Nature-based solutions offer the potential to protect, sustainably manage and restore natural or modified ecosystems while providing multiple other benefits for health, the economy, society and the environment. However, the implementation of nature-based solutions stems from a discourse that is almost exclusively derived from a terrestrial and urban context and assumes that risk reduction is resolved locally. We argue that this position ignores the importance of complex ecological interactions across a range of temporal and spatial scales and misses the substantive contribution from marine ecosystems, which are notably absent from most climate mitigation and adaptation strategies that extend beyond coastal disaster management. Here, we consider the potential of sediment-dwelling fauna and flora to inform and support nature-based solutions, and how the ecology of benthic environments can enhance adaptation plans. We illustrate our thesis with examples of practice that are generating, or have the potential to deliver, transformative change and discuss where further innovation might be applied. Finally, we take a reflective look at the realized and potential capacity of benthic-based solutions to contribute to adaptation plans and offer our perspectives on the suitability and shortcomings of past achievements and the prospective rewards from sensible prioritization of future research. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.

Realizing the values of natural capital for inclusive, sustainable development: Informing China's new ecological development strategy

Achieving inclusive, green development is crucial to China and the world. Over the past century, great increases in agricultural production have been achieved at the expense of other ecosystem benefits, such as flood control, water purification, climate stabilization, and biodiversity conservation. We report on an application of China’s new “Ecological Development Strategy,” which aims to break these trade-offs and be scaled nationwide. Focusing on Hainan Island, where rubber production has driven loss of natural forest, we identified a two-pronged strategy that would eliminate these trade-offs, simultaneously diversifying and enhancing product provision, rural incomes, and many other ecosystem benefits. This win−win approach has broad applicability in the plantation regions in China, across South and Southeast Asia, and beyond.

A major challenge in transforming development to inclusive, sustainable pathways is the pervasive and persistent trade-off between provisioning services (e.g., agricultural production) on the one hand and regulating services (e.g., water purification, flood control) and biodiversity conservation on the other. We report on an application of China’s new Ecological Development Strategy, now being formally tested and refined for subsequent scaling nationwide, which aims to mitigate and even eliminate these trade-offs. Our focus is the Ecosystem Function Conservation Area of Hainan Island, a rural, tropical region where expansion of rubber plantations has driven extensive loss of natural forest and its vital benefits to people. We explored both the biophysical and the socioeconomic options for achieving simultaneous improvements in product provision, regulating services, biodiversity, and livelihoods. We quantified historic trade-offs between rubber production and vital regulating services, finding that, over the past 20 y (1998–2017), there was a 72.2% increase in rubber plantation area, leading to decreases in soil retention (17.8%), water purification [reduced retention of nitrogen (56.3%) and phosphorus (27.4%)], flood mitigation (21.9%), carbon sequestration (1.7%), and habitat for biodiversity (6.9%). Using scenario analyses, we identified a two-pronged strategy that would significantly reduce these trade-offs, enhancing regulating services and biodiversity, while simultaneously diversifying and increasing product provision and improving livelihoods. This general approach to analyzing product provision, regulating services, biodiversity, and livelihoods has applicability in rural landscapes across China, South and Southeast Asia, and beyond.

Assessing ecological infrastructure investments

Conventional markets can underprovide ecosystem services. Deliberate creation of a market for ecosystem services [e.g., a payments for ecosystem services (PES) scheme] can close the gap. The new ecosystem service market alters behaviors and quantities of ecosystem service provided and reveals prices for the ecosystems service: a market-clearing equilibrium. Assessing the potential for PES programs, which often act as ecological infrastructure investment mechanisms, requires forecasting the market-clearing equilibrium. Forecasting the equilibrium is complicated, especially at relevant social and ecological scales. It requires greater disciplinary integration than valuing ecosystem services or computing the marginal cost of making a land-use change to produce a service. We conduct an ex ante benefit-cost assessment and forecast market-clearing prices and quantities for ecological infrastructure investment contracts in the Panama Canal Watershed. The Panama Canal Authority could offer contracts to private farmers to change land use to increase dry-season water flow and reduce sedimentation. A feasible voluntary contracting system yields a small program of about 1,840 ha of land conversion in a 279,000-ha watershed and generates a 4.9 benefit-cost ratio. Physical and social constraints limit market supply and scalability. Service delays, caused by lags between the time payments must be made and the time services stemming from ecosystem change are realized, hinder program feasibility. Targeting opportunities raise the benefit-cost ratio but reduce the hectares likely to be converted. We compare and contrast our results with prior state-of-the-art assessments on this system.

[Dynamics of natural capital in Shenyang based on improved three-dimensional ecological footprint]

Natural capital trends of Shenyang from 1995 to 2014 were analyzed using improved three-dimensional ecological footprint model. The results showed that, from 1995 to 2014, the ecological carrying capacity per capita of Shenyang fluctuated within a narrow range generally; the per capital ecological footprint, ecological deficit, footprint size and the footprint depth per capita increased along a wave-like curve. The changing rates of footprint size and depth tended to stabilize gradually. The way of natural capital utilization of cultivated land changed from capital flow in 2004 to capital stock, the capital stock replaced capital flow and became a source to meet the need of na-tural resources in the regional cultivated land, the use ratios of stock-flows increased gradually. The capital flow had been used by woodland and the occupancy rates of capital flows remained unchanged. The capital stock had been used by grassland and water, and the use ratios of stock-flows increased gradually. The development of Shenyang was in an unsustainable state. Coordinating the relationship between natural capital stock consumption and the utilization of stock-flows was one of the key ways to realize the sustainable development of Shenyang. Developing new resource, rationally planning the land and improving land utilization should be to reduce the consumption of natural capi-tal, at the same time, the protection of ecological environment should be to achieve sustainable development.

Ecosystem-based management and the wealth of ecosystems

We merge inclusive wealth theory with ecosystem-based management (EBM) to address two challenges in the science of sustainable management of ecosystems. First, we generalize natural capital theory to approximate realized shadow prices for multiple interacting natural capital stocks (species) making up an ecosystem. These prices enable ecosystem components to be better included in wealth-based sustainability measures. We show that ecosystems are best envisioned as portfolios of assets, where the portfolio's performance depends on the performance of the underlying assets influenced by their interactions. Second, changes in ecosystem wealth provide an attractive headline index for EBM, regardless of whether ecosystem wealth is ultimately included in a broader wealth index. We apply our approach to the Baltic Sea ecosystem, focusing on the interacting community of three commercially important fish species: cod, herring, and sprat. Our results incorporate supporting services embodied in the shadow price of a species through its trophic interactions. Prey fish have greater shadow prices than expected based on market value, and predatory fish have lower shadow prices than expected based on market value. These results are because correctly measured shadow prices reflect interdependence and limits to substitution. We project that ecosystem wealth in the Baltic Sea fishery ecosystem generally increases conditional on the EBM-inspired multispecies maximum sustainable yield management beginning in 2017, whereas continuing the current single-species management generally results in declining wealth.

Pollinator population size and pollination ecosystem service responses to enhancing floral and nesting resources

Modeling pollination ecosystem services requires a spatially explicit, process-based approach because they depend on both the behavioral responses of pollinators to the amount and spatial arrangement of habitat and on the within- and between-season dynamics of pollinator populations in response to land use. We describe a novel pollinator model predicting flower visitation rates by wild central-place foragers (e.g., nesting bees) in spatially explicit landscapes. The model goes beyond existing approaches by: (1) integrating preferential use of more rewarding floral and nesting resources; (2) considering population growth over time; (3) allowing different dispersal distances for workers and reproductives; (4) providing visitation rates for use in crop pollination models. We use the model to estimate the effect of establishing grassy field margins offering nesting resources and a low quantity of flower resources, and/or late-flowering flower strips offering no nesting resources but abundant flowers, on bumble bee populations and visitation rates to flowers in landscapes that differ in amounts of linear seminatural habitats and early mass-flowering crops. Flower strips were three times more effective in increasing pollinator populations and visitation rates than field margins, and this effect increased over time. Late-blooming flower strips increased early-season visitation rates, but decreased visitation rates in other late-season flowers. Increases in population size over time in response to flower strips and amounts of linear seminatural habitats reduced this apparent competition for pollinators. Our spatially explicit, process-based model generates emergent patterns reflecting empirical observations, such that adding flower resources may have contrasting short- and long-term effects due to apparent competition for pollinators and pollinator population size increase. It allows exploring these effects and comparing effect sizes in ways not possible with other existing models. Future applications include species comparisons, analysis of the sensitivity of predictions to life-history traits, as well as large-scale management intervention and policy assessment.

Beyond Ecosystem Services: Valuing the Invaluable

The ecosystem services framework (ESF) is advantageous and widely used for itemising and quantifying ways in which humans benefit from natural places. However, it suffers from two important problems: (i) incoherence of definitions and (ii) a narrow approach to valuation, inadequate to represent the full range of human motives for conservation and the diverse interests of different stakeholders. These shortcomings can lead to a range of problems including double-counting, blind spots and unintended consequences. In this opinion article, we propose an ecosystem valuing framework as a broader and more rigorous way to deliver the benefits currently sought from the ESF, without the conceptual problems.

Nature as capital: Advancing and incorporating ecosystem services in United States federal policies and programs

The concept of nature as capital is gaining visibility in policies and practices in both the public and private sectors. This change is due to an improved ability to assess and value ecosystem services, as well as to a growing recognition of the potential of an ecosystem services approach to make tradeoffs in decision making more transparent, inform efficient use of resources, enhance resilience and sustainability, and avoid unintended negative consequences of policy actions. Globally, governments, financial institutions, and corporations have begun to incorporate natural capital accounting in their policies and practices. In the United States, universities, nongovernmental organizations, and federal agencies are actively collaborating to develop and apply ecosystem services concepts to further national environmental and economic objectives. Numerous federal agencies have begun incorporating these concepts into land use planning, water resources management, and preparations for, and responses to, climate change. Going forward, well-defined policy direction will be necessary to institutionalize ecosystem services approaches in federal agencies, as well as to guide intersector and interdisciplinary collaborative research and development efforts. In addition, a new generation of decision support tools are needed to further the practical application of ecosystem services principles in policymaking and commercial activities. Improved performance metrics are needed, as are mechanisms to monitor the status of ecosystem services and assess the environmental and economic impacts of policies and programs. A greater national and international financial commitment to advancing ecosystem services and natural capital accounting would likely have broad, long-term economic and environmental benefits.

Improving global environmental management with standard corporate reporting

Multinational corporations play a prominent role in shaping the environmental trajectory of the planet. The integration of environmental costs and benefits into corporate decision-making has enormous, but as yet unfulfilled, potential to promote sustainable development. To help steer business decisions toward better environmental outcomes, corporate reporting frameworks need to develop scientifically informed standards that consistently consider land use and land conversion, clean air (including greenhouse gas emissions), availability and quality of freshwater, degradation of coastal and marine habitats, and sustainable use of renewable resources such as soil, timber, and fisheries. Standardization by itself will not be enough--also required are advances in ecosystem modeling and in our understanding of critical ecological thresholds. With improving ecosystem science, the opportunity for realizing a major breakthrough in reporting corporate environmental impacts and dependencies has never been greater. Now is the time for ecologists to take advantage of an explosion of sustainability commitments from business leaders and expanding pressure for sustainable practices from shareholders, financial institutions, and consumers.

Setting the bar: Standards for ecosystem services

Progress in ecosystem service science has been rapid, and there is now a healthy appetite among key public and private sector decision makers for this science. However, changing policy and management is a long-term project, one that raises a number of specific practical challenges. One impediment to broad adoption of ecosystem service information is the lack of standards that define terminology, acceptable data and methods, and reporting requirements. Ecosystem service standards should be tailored to specific use contexts, such as national income and wealth accounts, corporate sustainability reporting, land-use planning, and environmental impact assessments. Many standard-setting organizations already exist, and the research community will make the most headway toward rapid uptake of ecosystem service science by working directly with these organizations. Progress has been made in aligning with existing organizations in areas such as product certification and sustainability reporting, but a major challenge remains in mainstreaming ecosystem service information into core public and private use contexts, such as agricultural and energy subsidy design, national income accounts, and corporate accounts.

REVIEW: Towards a risk register for natural capital

Natural capital is essential for goods and services on which people depend. Yet pressures on the environment mean that natural capital assets are continuing to decline and degrade, putting such benefits at risk. Systematic monitoring of natural assets is a major challenge that could be both unaffordable and unmanageable without a way to focus efforts. Here we introduce a simple approach, based on the commonly used management tool of a risk register, to highlight natural assets whose condition places benefits at risk.We undertake a preliminary assessment using a risk register for natural capital assets in the UK based solely on existing information. The status and trends of natural capital assets are assessed using asset-benefit relationships for ten kinds of benefits (food, fibre (timber), energy, aesthetics, freshwater (quality), recreation, clean air, wildlife, hazard protection and equable climate) across eight broad habitat types in the UK based on three dimensions of natural capital within each of the habitat types (quality, quantity and spatial configuration). We estimate the status and trends of benefits relative to societal targets using existing regulatory limits and policy commitments, and allocate scores of high, medium or low risk to asset-benefit relationships that are both subject to management and of concern.The risk register approach reveals substantial gaps in knowledge about asset-benefit relationships which limit the scope and rigour of the assessment (especially for marine and urban habitats). Nevertheless, we find strong indications that certain assets (in freshwater, mountain, moors and heathland habitats) are at high risk in relation to their ability to sustain certain benefits (especially freshwater, wildlife and climate regulation). Synthesis and applications. With directed data gathering, especially to monitor trends, improve metrics related to asset-benefit relationships, and improve understanding of nonlinearities and thresholds, the natural capital risk register could provide a useful tool. If updated regularly, it could direct monitoring efforts, focus research and protect and manage those natural assets where benefits are at highest risk.

Sustainable intensification in agricultural systems

BACKGROUND

Agricultural systems are amended ecosystems with a variety of properties. Modern agroecosystems have tended towards high through-flow systems, with energy supplied by fossil fuels directed out of the system (either deliberately for harvests or accidentally through side effects). In the coming decades, resource constraints over water, soil, biodiversity and land will affect agricultural systems. Sustainable agroecosystems are those tending to have a positive impact on natural, social and human capital, while unsustainable systems feed back to deplete these assets, leaving fewer for the future. Sustainable intensification (SI) is defined as a process or system where agricultural yields are increased without adverse environmental impact and without the conversion of additional non-agricultural land. The concept does not articulate or privilege any particular vision or method of agricultural production. Rather, it emphasizes ends rather than means, and does not pre-determine technologies, species mix or particular design components. The combination of the terms 'sustainable' and 'intensification' is an attempt to indicate that desirable outcomes around both more food and improved environmental goods and services could be achieved by a variety of means. Nonetheless, it remains controversial to some.

SCOPE AND CONCLUSIONS

This review analyses recent evidence of the impacts of SI in both developing and industrialized countries, and demonstrates that both yield and natural capital dividends can occur. The review begins with analysis of the emergence of combined agricultural-environmental systems, the environmental and social outcomes of recent agricultural revolutions, and analyses the challenges for food production this century as populations grow and consumption patterns change. Emergent criticisms are highlighted, and the positive impacts of SI on food outputs and renewable capital assets detailed. It concludes with observations on policies and incentives necessary for the wider adoption of SI, and indicates how SI could both promote transitions towards greener economies as well as benefit from progress in other sectors.

The biodiversity-dependent ecosystem service debt

Habitat destruction is driving biodiversity loss in remaining ecosystems, and ecosystem functioning and services often directly depend on biodiversity. Thus, biodiversity loss is likely creating an ecosystem service debt: a gradual loss of biodiversity-dependent benefits that people obtain from remaining fragments of natural ecosystems. Here, we develop an approach for quantifying ecosystem service debts, and illustrate its use to estimate how one anthropogenic driver, habitat destruction, could indirectly diminish one ecosystem service, carbon storage, by creating an extinction debt. We estimate that c. 2-21 Pg C could be gradually emitted globally in remaining ecosystem fragments because of plant species loss caused by nearby habitat destruction. The wide range for this estimate reflects substantial uncertainties in how many plant species will be lost, how much species loss will impact ecosystem functioning and whether plant species loss will decrease soil carbon. Our exploratory analysis suggests that biodiversity-dependent ecosystem service debts can be globally substantial, even when locally small, if they occur diffusely across vast areas of remaining ecosystems. There is substantial value in conserving not only the quantity (area), but also the quality (biodiversity) of natural ecosystems for the sustainable provision of ecosystem services.

Complementarity in the provision of ecosystem services reduces the cost of mitigating amplified natural disturbance events

Climate change has been implicated as a root cause of the recent surge in natural disturbance events such as storms, wildfires, and insect outbreaks. This climate-based surge has led to a greater focus on disturbance-mitigating benefits of ecosystem management. Quantifying these benefits requires knowledge of the relationship between natural and anthropogenic disturbances, which is lacking at the temporal and spatial scales needed to inform ecosystem-based management. This study investigates a specific relationship between timber harvesting and climate-amplified outbreaks of mountain pine beetle. If harvesting is located to mitigate long-distance insect dispersal, there is potential for a win-win outcome in which both timber production and forest conservation can be increased. This spatially targeted harvesting strategy lowers the cost of providing disturbance-mitigating ecosystem services, because valuable timber products are also produced. Mitigating long-distance dispersal also produces net gains in forest conservation across various stakeholder groups. These results speak to ongoing federal efforts to encourage forest vegetation removal on public forestlands to improve forest health. These efforts will lower the cost of responding to climate-amplified natural disturbance events but only if vegetation removal efforts are spatially located to reduce disturbance risk. Otherwise, efforts to improve forest health may be converting forest conservation services to timber services.

Nature appropriation and associations with population health in Canada's largest cities

Earth is a finite system with a limited supply of resources. As the human population grows, so does the appropriation of Earth's natural capital, thereby exacerbating environmental concerns such as biodiversity loss, increased pollution, deforestation and global warming. Such concerns will negatively impact human health although it is widely believed that improving socio-economic circumstances will help to ameliorate environmental impacts and improve health outcomes. However, this belief does not explicitly acknowledge the fact that improvements in socio-economic position are reliant on increased inputs from nature. Gains in population health, particularly through economic means, are disconnected from the appropriation of nature to create wealth so that health gains become unsustainable. The current study investigated the sustainability of human population health in Canada with regard to resource consumption or "ecological footprints" (i.e., the resources required to sustain a given population). Ecological footprints of the 20 largest Canadian cities, along with several important determinants of health such as income and education, were statistically compared with corresponding indicators of human population health outcomes. A significant positive relationship was found between ecological footprints and life expectancy, as well as a significant negative relationship between ecological footprints and the prevalence of high blood pressure. Results suggest that increased appropriation of nature is linked to improved health outcomes. To prevent environmental degradation from excessive appropriation of natural resources will require the development of health promotion strategies that are de-coupled from ever-increasing and unsustainable resource use. Efforts to promote population health should focus on health benefits achieved from a lifestyle based on significantly reduced consumption of natural resources.

Reconnecting to the biosphere

Humanity has emerged as a major force in the operation of the biosphere, with a significant imprint on the Earth System, challenging social-ecological resilience. This new situation calls for a fundamental shift in perspectives, world views, and institutions. Human development and progress must be reconnected to the capacity of the biosphere and essential ecosystem services to be sustained. Governance challenges include a highly interconnected and faster world, cascading social-ecological interactions and planetary boundaries that create vulnerabilities but also opportunities for social-ecological change and transformation. Tipping points and thresholds highlight the importance of understanding and managing resilience. New modes of flexible governance are emerging. A central challenge is to reconnect these efforts to the changing preconditions for societal development as active stewards of the Earth System. We suggest that the Millennium Development Goals need to be reframed in such a planetary stewardship context combined with a call for a new social contract on global sustainability. The ongoing mind shift in human relations with Earth and its boundaries provides exciting opportunities for societal development in collaboration with the biosphere--a global sustainability agenda for humanity.

Nature's role in sustaining economic development

In this paper, I formalize the idea of sustainable development in terms of intergenerational well-being. I then sketch an argument that has recently been put forward formally to demonstrate that intergenerational well-being increases over time if and only if a comprehensive measure of wealth per capita increases. The measure of wealth includes not only manufactured capital, knowledge and human capital (education and health), but also natural capital (e.g. ecosystems). I show that a country's comprehensive wealth per capita can decline even while gross domestic product (GDP) per capita increases and the UN Human Development Index records an improvement. I then use some rough and ready data from the world's poorest countries and regions to show that during the period 1970-2000 wealth per capita declined in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, even though the Human Development Index (HDI) showed an improvement everywhere and GDP per capita increased in all places (except in sub-Saharan Africa, where there was a slight decline). I conclude that, as none of the development indicators currently in use is able to reveal whether development has been, or is expected to be, sustainable, national statistical offices and international organizations should now routinely estimate the (comprehensive) wealth of nations.

Agricultural sustainability: concepts, principles and evidence

Concerns about sustainability in agricultural systems centre on the need to develop technologies and practices that do not have adverse effects on environmental goods and services, are accessible to and effective for farmers, and lead to improvements in food productivity. Despite great progress in agricultural productivity in the past half-century, with crop and livestock productivity strongly driven by increased use of fertilizers, irrigation water, agricultural machinery, pesticides and land, it would be over-optimistic to assume that these relationships will remain linear in the future. New approaches are needed that will integrate biological and ecological processes into food production, minimize the use of those non-renewable inputs that cause harm to the environment or to the health of farmers and consumers, make productive use of the knowledge and skills of farmers, so substituting human capital for costly external inputs, and make productive use of people's collective capacities to work together to solve common agricultural and natural resource problems, such as for pest, watershed, irrigation, forest and credit management. These principles help to build important capital assets for agricultural systems: natural; social; human; physical; and financial capital. Improving natural capital is a central aim, and dividends can come from making the best use of the genotypes of crops and animals and the ecological conditions under which they are grown or raised. Agricultural sustainability suggests a focus on both genotype improvements through the full range of modern biological approaches and improved understanding of the benefits of ecological and agronomic management, manipulation and redesign. The ecological management of agroecosystems that addresses energy flows, nutrient cycling, population-regulating mechanisms and system resilience can lead to the redesign of agriculture at a landscape scale. Sustainable agriculture outcomes can be positive for food productivity, reduced pesticide use and carbon balances. Significant challenges, however, remain to develop national and international policies to support the wider emergence of more sustainable forms of agricultural production across both industrialized and developing countries.