Annual Report to the Nation on the Status of Cancer, part 2: Early assessment of the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on cancer diagnosis

BACKGROUND

With access to cancer care services limited because of coronavirus disease 2019 control measures, cancer diagnosis and treatment have been delayed. The authors explored changes in the counts of US incident cases by cancer type, age, sex, race, and disease stage in 2020.

METHODS

Data were extracted from selected US population-based cancer registries for diagnosis years 2015-2020 using first-submission data from the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries. After a quality assessment, the monthly numbers of newly diagnosed cancer cases were extracted for six cancer types: colorectal, female breast, lung, pancreas, prostate, and thyroid. The observed numbers of incident cancer cases in 2020 were compared with the estimated numbers by calculating observed-to-expected (O/E) ratios. The expected numbers of incident cases were extrapolated using Joinpoint trend models.

RESULTS

The authors report an O/E ratio <1.0 for major screening-eligible cancer sites, indicating fewer newly diagnosed cases than expected in 2020. The O/E ratios were lowest in April 2020. For every cancer site except pancreas, Asians/Pacific Islanders had the lowest O/E ratio of any race group. O/E ratios were lower for cases diagnosed at localized stages than for cases diagnosed at advanced stages.

CONCLUSIONS

The current analysis provides strong evidence for declines in cancer diagnoses, relative to the expected numbers, between March and May of 2020. The declines correlate with reductions in pathology reports and are greater for cases diagnosed at in situ and localized stage, triggering concerns about potential poor cancer outcomes in the coming years, especially in Asians/Pacific Islanders.

PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY

To help control the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), health care organizations suspended nonessential medical procedures, including preventive cancer screening, during early 2020. Many individuals canceled or postponed cancer screening, potentially delaying cancer diagnosis. This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the number of newly diagnosed cancer cases in 2020 using first-submission, population-based cancer registry database. The monthly numbers of newly diagnosed cancer cases in 2020 were compared with the expected numbers based on past trends for six cancer sites. April 2020 had the sharpest decrease in cases compared with previous years, most likely because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Benchmarking the use of a rapid response team by surgical services at a tertiary care hospital

BACKGROUND

Rapid response teams (RRT) are used to prevent adverse events in patients with acute clinical deterioration, and to save costs of unnecessary transfer in patients with lower-acuity problems. However, determining the optimal use of RRT services is challenging. One method of benchmarking performance is to determine whether a department's event rate is commensurate with its volume and acuity.

STUDY DESIGN

Using admissions between 2009 and 2011 to 18 distinct surgical services at a tertiary care center, we developed logistic regression models to predict RRT activation, accounting for days at-risk for RRT and patient acuity, using claims modifiers for risk of mortality (ROM) and severity of illness (SOI). The model was used to compute observed-to-expected (O/E) RRT use by service.

RESULTS

Of 45,651 admissions, 728 (1.6%, or 3.2 per 1,000 inpatient days) resulted in 1 or more RRT activations. Use varied widely across services (0.4% to 6.2% of admissions; 1.39 to 8.73 per 1,000 inpatient days, unadjusted). In the multivariable model, the greatest contributors to the likelihood of RRT were days at risk, SOI, and ROM. The O/E RRT use ranged from 0.32 to 2.82 across services, with 8 services having an observed value that was significantly higher or lower than predicted by the model.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a tool for identifying outlying use of an important institutional medical resource. The O/E computation provides a starting point for further investigation into the reasons for variability among services, and a benchmark for quality and process improvement efforts in patient safety.