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Trevisan G, Linhares LCM, Crim B, Dubey P, Schwartz KJ, Burrough ER, Wang C, Main RG, Sundberg P, Thurn M, Lages PTF, Corzo CA, Torrison J, Henningson J, Herrman E, Hanzlicek GA, Raghavan R, Marthaler D, Greseth J, Clement T, Christopher-Hennings J, Muscatello D, Linhares DCL. Prediction of seasonal patterns of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus RNA detection in the U.S. swine industry. J Vet Diagn Invest 2020; 32:394-400. [PMID: 32274974 DOI: 10.1177/1040638720912406] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
We developed a model to predict the cyclic pattern of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) RNA detection by reverse-transcription real-time PCR (RT-rtPCR) from 4 major swine-centric veterinary diagnostic laboratories (VDLs) in the United States and to use historical data to forecast the upcoming year's weekly percentage of positive submissions and issue outbreak signals when the pattern of detection was not as expected. Standardized submission data and test results were used. Historical data (2015-2017) composed of the weekly percentage of PCR-positive submissions were used to fit a cyclic robust regression model. The findings were used to forecast the expected weekly percentage of PCR-positive submissions, with a 95% confidence interval (CI), for 2018. During 2018, the proportion of PRRSV-positive submissions crossed 95% CI boundaries at week 2, 14-25, and 48. The relatively higher detection on week 2 and 48 were mostly from submissions containing samples from wean-to-market pigs, and for week 14-25 originated mostly from samples from adult/sow farms. There was a recurring yearly pattern of detection, wherein an increased proportion of PRRSV RNA detection in submissions originating from wean-to-finish farms was followed by increased detection in samples from adult/sow farms. Results from the model described herein confirm the seasonal cyclic pattern of PRRSV detection using test results consolidated from 4 VDLs. Wave crests occurred consistently during winter, and wave troughs occurred consistently during the summer months. Our model was able to correctly identify statistically significant outbreak signals in PRRSV RNA detection at 3 instances during 2018.
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Affiliation(s)
- Giovani Trevisan
- Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares).,Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg).,Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison).,College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler).,Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings).,School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello)
| | - Leticia C M Linhares
- Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares).,Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg).,Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison).,College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler).,Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings).,School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello)
| | - Bret Crim
- Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares).,Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg).,Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison).,College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler).,Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings).,School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello)
| | - Poonam Dubey
- Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares).,Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg).,Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison).,College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler).,Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings).,School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello)
| | - Kent J Schwartz
- Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares).,Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg).,Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison).,College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler).,Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings).,School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello)
| | - Eric R Burrough
- Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares).,Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg).,Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison).,College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler).,Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings).,School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello)
| | - Chong Wang
- Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares).,Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg).,Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison).,College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler).,Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings).,School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello)
| | - Rodger G Main
- Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares).,Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg).,Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison).,College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler).,Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings).,School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello)
| | - Paul Sundberg
- Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares).,Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg).,Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison).,College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler).,Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings).,School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello)
| | - Mary Thurn
- Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares).,Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg).,Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison).,College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler).,Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings).,School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello)
| | - Paulo T F Lages
- Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares).,Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg).,Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison).,College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler).,Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings).,School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello)
| | - Cesar A Corzo
- Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares).,Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg).,Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison).,College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler).,Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings).,School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello)
| | - Jerry Torrison
- Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares).,Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg).,Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison).,College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler).,Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings).,School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello)
| | - Jamie Henningson
- Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares).,Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg).,Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison).,College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler).,Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings).,School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello)
| | - Eric Herrman
- Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares).,Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg).,Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison).,College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler).,Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings).,School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello)
| | - Gregg A Hanzlicek
- Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares).,Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg).,Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison).,College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler).,Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings).,School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello)
| | - Ram Raghavan
- Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares).,Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg).,Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison).,College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler).,Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings).,School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello)
| | - Douglas Marthaler
- Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares).,Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg).,Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison).,College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler).,Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings).,School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello)
| | - Jon Greseth
- Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares).,Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg).,Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison).,College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler).,Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings).,School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello)
| | - Travis Clement
- Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares).,Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg).,Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison).,College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler).,Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings).,School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello)
| | - Jane Christopher-Hennings
- Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares).,Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg).,Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison).,College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler).,Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings).,School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello)
| | - David Muscatello
- Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares).,Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg).,Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison).,College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler).,Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings).,School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello)
| | - Daniel C L Linhares
- Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (Trevisan, LCM Linhares, Crim, Dubey, Schwartz, Burrough, Wang, Main, DCL Linhares).,Swine Health Information Center; Ames, IA (Sundberg).,Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (Thurn, Lages, Corzo, Torrison).,College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University; Manhattan, KS (Henningson, Herrman, Hanzlicek, Raghavan, Marthaler).,Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences Department, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (Greseth, Clement, Christopher-Hennings).,School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia (Muscatello)
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