Unmet healthcare needs among the population aged 50+ and their association with health outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic led to unprecedented levels of subjective unmet healthcare needs (SUN). This study investigates the association between SUN in 2020 and three health outcomes in 2021-mortality, cancer, and self-assessed health (SAH), among adults aged 50 years and older, using data from the regular administration of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe and from the two special waves administered in 2020 and 2021 regarding COVID-19. Three types of SUN were surveyed: care foregone due to fear of contracting COVID-19, pre-scheduled care postponed, and inability to get medical appointments or treatments demanded. We resort on the relative risk and the logistic specification to investigate the association between SUN and health outcomes. To avoid simultaneity, 1-year lagged SUN variables are used. We found a negative association between SUN and mortality. This result differs from the (scarce) previous evidence, suggesting that health systems prioritised life-threatening conditions, in the pandemic context. In line with previous studies, we obtained a positive association between SUN and worse health, in the case of cancer, though it is statistically significant only for the global measure of SUN (any reason). The higher chances of reporting cancer among those exposed to SUN might mean delayed cancer diagnosis, confirming that healthcare foregone was truly needed for a timely diagnosis. The association between SUN and poor or fair SAH is positive but not statistically significant, for the period analysed.

Development of a warning score for early detection of colorectal anastomotic leakage: Hype or hope?

BACKGROUND

Colorectal anastomotic leakage (CAL), a severe postoperative complication, is associated with high morbidity, hospital readmission, and overall healthcare costs. Early detection of CAL remains a challenge in clinical practice. However, some decision models have been developed to increase the diagnostic accuracy of this event.

AIM

To develop a score based on easily accessible variables to detect CAL early.

METHODS

Based on the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method, a predictive classification system was developed [Early ColoRectAL Leakage (E-CRALL) score] from a prospective observational, single center cohort, carried out in a colorectal division from a non-academic hospital. The score performance and CAL threshold from postoperative day (POD) 3 to POD5 were estimated. Based on a precise analytical decision model, the standard clinical practice was compared with the E-CRALL adoption on POD3, POD4, or POD5. A cost-minimization analysis was conducted, on the assumption that all alternatives delivered similar health-related effects.

RESULTS

In this study, 396 patients who underwent colorectal resection surgery with anastomosis, and 6.3% (n = 25) developed CAL. Most of the patients who developed CAL (n = 23; 92%) were diagnosed during the first hospital admission, with a median time of diagnosis of 9.0 ± 6.8 d. From POD3 to POD5, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the E-CRALL score was 0.82, 0.84, and 0.95, respectively. On POD5, if a threshold of 8.29 was chosen, 87.4% of anastomotic failures were identified with E-CRALL adoption. Additionally, score usage could anticipate CAL diagnosis in an average of 5.2 d and 4.1 d, if used on POD3 and POD5, respectively. Regardless of score adoption, episode comprehensive costs were markedly greater (up to four times) in patients who developed CAL in comparison with patients who did not develop CAL. Nonetheless, the use of the E-CRALL warning score was associated with cost savings of €421442.20, with most (92.9%) of the savings from patients who did not develop CAL.

CONCLUSION

The E-CRALL score is an accessible tool to predict CAL at an early timepoint. Additionally, E-CRALL can reduce overall healthcare costs, mainly in the reduction of hospital costs, independent of whether a patient developed CAL.

Usefulness of serum C-reactive protein and calprotectin for the early detection of colorectal anastomotic leakage: A prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

Colorectal anastomotic leakage (CAL) is one of the most dreaded complications after colorectal surgery, with an incidence that can be as high as 27%. This event is associated with increased morbidity and mortality; therefore, its early diagnosis is crucial to reduce clinical consequences and costs. Some biomarkers have been suggested as laboratory tools for the diagnosis of CAL.

AIM

To assess the usefulness of plasma C-reactive protein (CRP) and calprotectin (CLP) as early predictors of CAL.

METHODS

A prospective monocentric observational study was conducted including patients who underwent colorectal resection with anastomosis, from March 2017 to August 2019. Patients were divided into three groups: G1 – no complications; G2 – complications not related to CAL; and G3 – CAL. Five biomarkers were measured and analyzed in the first 5 postoperative days (PODs), namely white blood cell (WBC) count, eosinophil cell count (ECC), CRP, CLP, and procalcitonin (PCT). Clinical criteria, such as abdominal pain and clinical condition, were also assessed. The correlation between biomarkers and CAL was evaluated. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to compare the accuracy of these biomarkers as predictors of CAL, and the area under the ROC curve (AUROC), specificity, sensitivity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value (NPV) during this period were estimated.

RESULTS

In total, 25 of 396 patients developed CAL (6.3%), and the mean time for this diagnosis was 9.0 ± 6.8 d. Some operative characteristics, such as surgical approach, blood loss, intraoperative complications, and duration of the procedure, were notably related to the development of CAL. The length of hospital stay was markedly higher in the group that developed CAL compared with the group with complications other than CAL and the group with no complications (median of 21 d vs 13 d and 7 d respectively; P < 0.001). For abdominal pain, the best predictive performance was on POD4 and POD5, with the largest AUROC of 0.84 on POD4. Worsening of the clinical condition was associated with the diagnosis of CAL, presenting a higher predictive effect on POD5, with an AUROC of 0.9. WBC and ECC showed better predictive effects on POD5 (AUROC = 0.62 and 0.7, respectively). Those markers also presented a high NPV (94%-98%). PCT had the best predictive effect on POD5 (AUROC = 0.61), although it presented low accuracy. However, this biomarker revealed a high NPV on POD3, POD4, and POD5 (96%, 95%, and 96%, respectively). The mean CRP value on POD5 was significantly higher in the group that developed CAL compared with the group without complications (195.5 ± 139.9 mg/L vs 59.5 ± 43.4 mg/L; P < 0.00001). On POD5, CRP had a NPV of 98%. The mean CLP value on POD3 was significantly higher in G3 compared with G1 (5.26 ± 3.58 μg/mL vs 11.52 ± 6.81 μg/mL; P < 0.00005). On POD3, the combination of CLP and CRP values showed a high diagnostic accuracy (AUROC = 0.82), providing a 5.2 d reduction in the time to CAL diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

CRP and CLP are moderate predictors of CAL. However, the combination of these biomarkers presents an increased diagnostic accuracy, potentially decreasing the time to CAL diagnosis.

[The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Unmet Healthcare Needs in People Aged Over 50 in Portugal]

INTRODUCTION

The COVID-19 pandemic led to the cancellation of healthcare appointments and to lower demand, which generated unmet healthcare needs. The aim of this study was to evaluate their prevalence and distribution in Portugal.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Data came from the "Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe". Between June and August 2020, 1118 Portuguese individuals aged 50 or over were inquired about unmet healthcare needs due to: i) fear of getting infected; ii) cancellation by the doctor/healthcare services; iii) unsuccessful consultation request. The analysis of the prevalence of unmet needs was complemented by the calculation of the concentration indices as a function of the variables: income, education and health status.

RESULTS

About 60% of respondents reported at least one unmet need, which was almost twice the European average. Motive ii) cancellation by the doctor/healthcare services was the most frequent. The prevalence of unmet needs differed depending on income level and health status. The indices evidence the concentration of unmet needs in individuals with the worst health status, although for the reason fear of infection the concentration occurred in those with higher levels of income and education.

CONCLUSION

Our study showed a high prevalence of unmet needs and their concentration in individuals with worse health status. Given the association between unmet needs and the subsequent deterioration of health, these results should raise concerns about the near future.

[Access to healthcare in Portugal in the wake of the crisis. Not everything is money?]

Unmet healthcare needs have been used to assess access to healthcare. In scenarios of recession and financial constraints on public policies, it is important to identify which factors besides income can be used to mitigate barriers to access. This was the focus of our study on Portugal's case in the wake of the crisis. We used 17,698 observations from the 5th National Health Survey (2014). We analyzed self-reported unmet needs for medical appointments and treatments, dental healthcare, and prescribed medications. We used a bivariate selection model, considering the fact that unmet needs could only be observed in the subsample of individuals that felt the need for healthcare. The risk of unmet needs for healthcare decreased in individuals with higher income and schooling levels and in the elderly and men. Exclusive coverage by the National Health Service increased the risk of unmet dental healthcare needs. The absence of a circle of close friends to whom one can ask for help and lack of trust in others increased the likelihood of unmet healthcare needs. Better health decreased the risk of unmet needs. While income is an important predictor of unmet needs, we found the impact of other factors such as gender, age, and education. Participation in informal groups reduced the likelihood of unmet needs. Individuals with more healthcare needs end up suffering additional risk.

Unmet needs across Europe: Disclosing knowledge beyond the ordinary measure

Unmet healthcare needs (or foregone healthcare) is a widely used intermediate indicator to evaluate healthcare systems attainment since it relates to health outcomes, financial risk protection, improved efficiency and responsiveness to the individuals' legitimate expectations. This paper discusses the ordinary measure of this indicator used so far, prevalence of unmet needs in the whole population, based on the level of healthcare needs among the population. The prevalence of needs and the prevalence of unmet needs among those in need are key aspects that have not yet been fully explored when it comes to foregone healthcare. We break down the ordinary measure into prevalence of needs and prevalence of unmet needs among those in need based on data taken from the European Social Survey 2014. Afterwards, we analyse these different measures in a cross-country perspective. We also discuss the link between them and the implicit relative assessment of healthcare systems considering the whole population and the sub-group of the population aged 65 or more. Comparisons across countries show different attainment levels unveiling varying challenges across European countries, depending on the combination of levels of need and levels of unmet needs for those in need.

No unmet needs without needs! Assessing the role of social capital using data from European social survey 2014

This paper examines the determinants of unmet healthcare needs in Europe. Special emphasis is put on the impact of social capital. Data come from the European Social Survey, 2014. Our study includes 32,868 respondents in 20 countries. Because unmet needs are observed only in those individuals who are exposed to, and recognise, the need of medical care, sample selection can be an issue. To address it, we analyse the data using the bivariate sample selection model. When there is no need, there is no assessment of access to healthcare. Accordingly, in this situation, our model assumes that unmet need is unobserved. The magnitude and statistical significance of the error correlation support our modelling strategy. A high proportion (18.4%) of individuals in need in Europe reported unmet needs. Informal connections seem to mitigate barriers to access as well as trust in other people and institutions, particularly in health services. Financial strain still is a strong predictor of unmet needs. Other vulnerable groups include informal carers, minorities and individuals feeling discriminated. Unmet needs might also arise due to persistent needs of healthcare as it seems to be the case of individuals with lower health status and chronic conditions. A result that merits further research concerns the positive impact of civic engagement on unmet needs.

Do drinking problems in the past affect current consumption?

Harmful use of alcohol ranks among the top five risk factors for disease, disability and death worldwide. However, not all individuals who consume alcohol throughout life are addicted and our premise is that addiction implies a chain of consumption that produces harmful effects. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether self-assessed past drinking problems - our measure of harmful alcohol consumption - affect the current alcohol consumption patterns. We expected that drinking problems in the past could have a positive effect on current alcohol consumption. Using Portuguese data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we applied an ordered probit model, given the ordered nature of the dependent variable. Our dependent variable measures the current consumption using categories listed in ascending order of alcohol intake frequency (from less than once a month to daily consumption). Our results suggest that harmful alcohol consumption in the past is an important determinant of current alcohol consumption. Self-assessed past drinking problems had a positive effect on the first five lower categories of current alcohol consumption frequency - less than once a month to up to six days a week. Therefore, to reduce non-communicable avoidable diseases related to the use of alcohol, policies should consider the individuals' decisions regarding alcohol consumption during their lifetime, and specific policies should focus on individuals with past drinking problems.

Killing two birds with one stone? Association between tobacco and alcohol consumption

OBJECTIVES

Tobacco and excessive alcohol consumption are addictive behaviours, listed among the 10 leading risk factors that cause death and disability in the world, and health consequences are greater if their consumption is combined. There is sparse empirical evidence on the variables that influence the simultaneous consumption of tobacco and alcohol. This study aims to identify the variables that influence the joint decision to consume alcohol and tobacco, and that encourage drinkers to smoke.

STUDY DESIGN

The sample includes Portuguese adults, mainly aged 50 years and over, extracted from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, covering the year 2011.

METHODS

We propose a bivariate probit model, which allows us to model simultaneously the two goods, accounting for potential correlation between smoking and drinking decisions.

RESULTS

We identified the variables that influence joint consumption, and tobacco consumption among drinkers, which could be used as policy instruments to develop concerted policies. Prevention policies should focus on males, younger and more educated individuals, as well as on individuals with unhealthy eating habits, because these variables were statistically significant and increased joint consumption. In addition, these characteristics also should be regarded if we want to control tobacco consumption among alcohol consumers.

CONCLUSIONS

The analysis of the interdependence between alcohol and tobacco use presented in this article may allow reducing their consumption with a common intervention, enabling policymakers to 'kill two birds with one stone' and to achieve extended health and economic gains.

Cost-Effectiveness of Intervention Thresholds for the Treatment of Osteoporosis Based on FRAX(®) in Portugal

Cost-effective intervention thresholds (ITs) based on FRAX(®) were determined for Portugal. Assuming a willingness to pay (WTP) of €32,000 per quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), treatment with generic alendronate is cost effective for men and women aged 50 years or more, with 10-year probabilities for major osteoporotic fractures and hip above 8.8 and 2.5 %, respectively. The aim of the present study was to identify the 10-year probabilities of a major and hip osteoporotic fracture using FRAX(®) validated for Portugal, above which pharmacologic interventions become cost effective in the Portuguese context. A previously developed and validated state transition Markov cohort model was populated with epidemiologic, economic and quality-of-life fracture data from Portugal. Cost-effectiveness of FRAX(®)-based ITs was calculated for generic alendronate and proprietary zoledronic acid, denosumab and teriparatide were compared to "no intervention", assuming a WTP of €32,000 (two times national Gross Domestic Product per capita) per QALYs. In the Portuguese epidemiological and economic context, treatment with generic alendronate was cost effective for men and women aged 50 years or more, with 10-year probabilities at or above 8.8 % for major osteoporotic fractures and 2.5 % for hip fractures. Cost-effective threshold 10-year probabilities for major osteoporotic and hip fractures were higher for zoledronic acid (20.4 and 10.1 %), denosumab (34.9 and 10.1 %) and teriparatide (77.8 and 62.6 %), respectively. A tool is provided to perform the calculation of cost-effective ITs for different medications, according to age group and diverse levels of WTP. Cost-effective ITs, for different medications, age groups and WTP, based on 10-year probabilities of major and hip fracture probabilities calculated with FRAX are provided.

The burden of osteoporotic hip fractures in Portugal: costs, health related quality of life and mortality

The study rationale was to provide a detailed overview of the costs, quality of life and mortality of hip fractures in Portugal. Mean individual fracture-related costs were estimated at €13,434 [12,290; 14,576] for the first year and €5985 [4982; 7045] for the second year following the fracture.

INTRODUCTION

Osteoporotic fractures represent a remarkable burden to health care systems and societies worldwide, which will tend to increase as life expectancy expands and lifestyle changes favour osteoporosis. The cost-effectiveness evaluation of intervention strategies demands accurate data on the epidemiological and economical reality to be addressed.

METHODS

Information was collected retrospectively on consumption of resources and changes in quality of life attributable to fracture as well as mortality, regarding 186 patients randomly selected to represent the distribution of hip fractures in the Portuguese population, in terms of gender, age and geographical provenience. Data were cross-tabulated with socio-demographic variables and individual resource consumption to estimate the burden of disease. A societal perspective was adopted, including direct and indirect costs. Multivariate analyses were carried out to assess the main determinants of health-related quality of life (HrQoL).

RESULTS

Mean individual fracture-related costs were estimated at €13,434 [12,290; 14,576] for the first year and €5985 [4982; 7045] for the second year following the fracture. In 2011 the economic burden attributable to osteoporotic hip fractures in Portugal could be estimated at €216 million. Mean reduction in HrQoL 12 months after fracture was estimated at 0.34. Regression analysis showed that age was associated with a higher loss of HrQoL, whereas education had the opposing effect. We observed 12 % excess mortality in the first year after hip fracture, when compared to the gender and age-matched general population.

CONCLUSIONS

Results of this study indicate that osteoporotic hip fractures are, also in Portugal, despite its low incidence of fractures and cost per event, associated with a high societal burden, in terms of costs, loss in HrQoL and mortality. These data provide valuable input to the design and selection of fracture prevention strategies.

A FRAX model for the estimation of osteoporotic fracture probability in Portugal

INTRODUCTION

The objective of this study was to develop a Portuguese version of the World Health Organization fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX®).

METHODS

All cases of hip fracture occurred at or after 40 years of age were extracted from the Portuguese National Hospital Discharge Register from 2006 to 2010. Age and sex-ranked population estimates and mortality rates were obtained from National Statistics. Age- and gender stratified incidences were computed and the average of the five years under consideration was taken. Rates for other major fractures were imputed from the epidemiology of Sweden, as undertaken for most national FRAX® models. All methodological aspects and results were submitted to critical appraisal by a wide panel of national experts and representatives of the different stakeholders, including patients.

RESULTS

Hip fracture incidence rates were higher in women than in men and increased with age. The lowest incidence was observed in 40-44 years group (14.1 and 4.0 per 100,000 inhabitants for men and women, respectively). The highest rate was observed among the 95-100 age-group (2,577.6 and 3,551.8/100,000 inhabitants, for men and women, respectively). The estimated ten-year probability for major osteoporotic fracture or hip fracture increased with decreasing T-score and with increasing age.

CONCLUSIONS

Portugal has one of the lowest fracture incidences among European countries. The FRAX® tool has been successfully calibrated to the Portuguese population, and can now be used to estimate the ten-year risk of osteoporotic fractures in this country. All major stakeholders officially endorsed the Portuguese FRAX® model and co-authored this paper.