Abstract P6-08-05: United States real-world drug utilization patterns and associated overall survival in Medicare patients with newly-diagnosed metastatic triple negative breast cancer using surveillance, epidemiology, and end results-Medicare data

Background: Limited information is available about treatment patterns for elderly patients (pts) with metastatic triple negative breast cancer (mTNBC). This analysis characterized real-world drug utilization patterns and associated overall survival (OS) for Medicare mTNBC pts.

Methods: Pts ≥66 years of age who were newly diagnosed with mTNBC between 2004 and 2011 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linked database. Triple negative status was obtained from the SEER registry, except for HER2 that was unavailable from 2004-2009 during which we assumed that pts who had a claim for a HER2 test followed by absence of hormonal therapy to be presumed HER2 negative. Pts were followed from diagnosis to death, Medicare disenrollment, HMO enrollment, or 12/31/2013 (whichever occurred first) to characterize the sequence of chemotherapy received – first regimen (1R), second regimen (2R), and third regimen (3R) and median (interquartile, IQR) duration of and between regimens. OS estimates were reported using the Kaplan-Meier method.

Results: Among 694 mTNBC pts, 69 died within 30 days of diagnosis and were excluded. In the remaining 625 pts observed from 2004 through 2013 (median age: 75 years; Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) ≥2: 21%; and median follow-up: 11.4 months), 317 (51%) received chemotherapy. Of the 317 pts, 161 got only 1R, 88 got only 2R, and 68 got 3R+. Compared to pts on 1R, pts on 2R were significantly younger (median age: 2R, 72; 1R, 75 years), married (2R, 40%; 1R, 30%), had fewer comorbidities (CCI≥2: 2R, 16%; 1R, 23%). The top 2 most commonly prescribed single agents in 1R, 2R, and 3R were: 1R, paclitaxel followed by capecitabine; 2R, capecitabine followed by paclitaxel; 3R, gemcitabine followed by capecitabine. The most common combination regimen given was taxane-based in 1R (57%) and 2R (70%).

Drug utilization patterns First Regimen (n=317)Second Regimen (n=156)Third Regimen (n=68)Single Agent205 (65%)74 (47%)40 (59%)Microtubule inhibitors80 (39%)23 (31%)NRPaclitaxel72 (35%)18 (24%)NRAnthracyclines29 (14%)13 (18%)NRDoxorubicin27 (13%)13 (18%)NRAntimetabolites/Others96 (47%)38 (51%)27 (73%)Capecitabine51 (25%)20 (27%)NRGemcitabineNRNR13 (35%)OthersNRNRNRCombination Regimens112 (35%)82 (53%)28 (41%)Taxane-based64 (57%)57 (70%)NRNR, not reported per DUA with NCI. %, col. % relative to single/comb. category

Median (IQR) durations of 1R, 2R, and 3R were 2.7 (1.4-4.4), 3.1 (1.6-5.0), and 2.3 (0.9-4.5) months, respectively. Median time from diagnosis to start of 1R was 1.6 (0.9-2.8) months. Median time to start of 2R and 3R after the end of the previous regimen was 4.6 (2.1-8.1), and 6.2 (3.3-11.0) months, respectively. The median (12-month) OS was 7 months (34%) for all pts and ranged from 3.5 (17%) in the untreated to 25.3 (88%) months in 3R+ pts.

Conclusions: About half of Medicare mTNBC pts do not receive chemotherapy in the real world. Paclitaxel and capecitabine were the most commonly used single agents and taxane-based combination therapy was the most commonly used combination.

Citation Format: Aly A, Shah R, Hill K, Waldeck AR, Botteman M. United States real-world drug utilization patterns and associated overall survival in Medicare patients with newly-diagnosed metastatic triple negative breast cancer using surveillance, epidemiology, and end results-Medicare data [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2017 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2017 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2018;78(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P6-08-05.

Risk factors for delayed gastric emptying following laparoscopic repair of very large hiatus hernias

Background

Delayed gastric emptying can complicate surgery for hiatus hernia. The aim of this study was to quantify its incidence following laparoscopic repair of very large hiatus hernias, identify key risk factors for its occurrence and determine its impact on clinical outcomes.

Methods

Data collected from a randomized trial of patients who underwent laparoscopic mesh versus sutured repair of very large hiatus hernias (more than 50 per cent of stomach in chest) were analysed retrospectively. Delayed gastric emptying was defined as endoscopic evidence of solid food in the stomach after fasting for 6 h at 6 months after surgery.

Results

Delayed gastric emptying occurred in 19 of 102 patients (18·6 per cent). In univariable analysis, type 2 paraoesophageal hernia (relative risk (RR) 3·15, 95 per cent c.i. 1·41 to 7·06), concurrent anterior and posterior hiatal repair (RR 2·66, 1·14 to 6·18), hernia sac excision (RR 4·85, 1·65 to 14·24), 270°/360° fundoplication (RR 3·64, 1·72 to 7·68), division of short gastric vessels (RR 6·82, 2·12 to 21·90) and revisional surgery (RR 3·69, 1·73 to 7·87) correlated with delayed gastric emptying. In multivariable analysis, division of short gastric vessels (RR 6·27, 1·85 to 21·26) and revisional surgery (RR 6·19, 1·32 to 28·96) were independently associated with delayed gastric emptying. Delayed gastric emptying correlated with adverse gastrointestinal symptomatology, including higher rates of bloating, nausea, vomiting and anorexia, as well as reduced patient satisfaction with the operation and recovery.

Conclusion

Delayed gastric emptying following large hiatus hernia repair is common and associated with adverse symptoms and reduced patient satisfaction. Division of short gastric vessels and revisional surgery were independently associated with its occurrence.

Phosphorus availability from rock phosphate: Combined effect of green waste composting and sulfur addition

Rock phosphate constitutes a natural phosphorus (P) source for organic farming systems, but with a limiting direct agricultural use due to its poor inherent reactivity. Thus, this work studies the effect of the co-composting of rock phosphate with green wastes and elemental sulfur on phosphorus availability. Six composts were prepared combining different green wastes and rock phosphate in three different proportions (0%, 0.27% and 0.54% P fresh mass basis) and elemental sulfur in two proportions (0% and 0.5% S fresh mass basis). During composting, the temperature of the mixtures was monitored, as were physico-chemical and chemical parameters, especially those related to phosphorus. The co-composting of green wastes with rock phosphate improved phosphorus mobilization and also constituted a viable method to manage green wastes, obtaining P-enriched compost for organic farming systems. Sulfur addition favored the composting process and also phosphorus solubilization, especially in the mixture with the lowest proportion of rock phosphate.

Percutaneous humeral derotational osteotomy in obstetrical brachial plexus palsy: a new technique

Thirty three per cent of children with obstetrical brachial plexus palsy with incomplete neurological recovery develop shoulder internal contracture associated with osseous deformity. Some of the older children are treated by humeral derotational osteotomy. The classical technique of open approach to the humeral diaphysis and plate fixation imposes a longitudinal scar and carries significant risks (nonunion, nerve palsy); a secondary procedure for plate removal is necessary in a significant proportion of patients. The authors report a new technique of percutaneous humeral osteotomy with osteosynthesis by Hoffmann external fixator. In six cases bone healing was obtained at an average of 45 days, without adverse complication. The postoperative results showed improved shoulder function. This new technique is simple and safe; it represents a new option for the treatment of sequelae of obstetrical brachial plexus palsy.

Role of oxidative stress in hypoxia preconditioning of cells transplanted to the myocardium: a molecular imaging study

AIM

Cell-based therapies are a potential therapeutic alternative for the treatment of coronary artery disease (CAD). However, transplanted cells undergo significant death in the living subject. Hypoxic preconditioning (HPC) is a potential intervention to increase transplanted cell survival. However, the biological mechanisms of this benefit remain unclear. We hypothesize that the beneficial effect of HPC on stem cell survival is in part due to preservation of oxidant status, an effect that will be monitored using state-of-the-art molecular imaging.

METHODS

H9c2 rat cardiomyoblasts expressing the construct CMV-firefly luciferase (h9c2-fluc), with and without HPC, were exposed to hypoxia, and oxidative stress and cell survival were measured. Subsequently, H9c2-fluc cells, with and without HPC, were injected into the myocardium of rats and cell survival was monitored daily with Bioluminescence (BLI) using a CCD camera.

RESULTS

Compared to controls, cells exposed to hypoxia had increased amount of reactive oxygen species (ROS, control: 14.1±0.9 vs. hypoxia: 19.5 ± 2.0 RFU/µg protein, P=0.02) and decreased cell survival (control: 0.29 ± 0.005 vs. hypoxia: 0.24 ± 0.005 OD, P<0.001). HPC treatment decreased the amount of hypoxia-induced ROS (HPC: 11.5 ± 0.7RFU/µg protein, P=0.002 vs. hypoxia and P=0.11 vs. control), associated with improved survival (HPC: 0.27 ± 0.004OD/µg protein, P=0.002 vs. hypoxia and P=0.005 vs. control). Most importantly, compared to un-conditioned cells, HPC-cells had increased cell survival after transplantation to the myocardium (C: 34.7 ± 6.7% vs. HPC: 83.4 ± 17.5% at day 5 compared to day 1, P=0.01).

CONCLUSION

The beneficial effect of HPC is in part due to preservation of oxidant status. Molecular imaging can assess changes in cell survival in the living subject and has the potential to be applied clinically.

Perioperative Fluid Prescription, Complications and Outcomes in Major Elective Open Gastrointestinal Surgery

Perioperative fluid therapy and associated outcomes of patients undergoing major elective open gastrointestinal surgery are poorly understood. This study measured perioperative fluid therapy, complication rates and outcomes for major elective open gastrointestinal surgery in a tertiary care hospital. We obtained demographic data, operative details, fluid prescription, complications and outcomes in 100 patients. Patients were elderly and had multiple comorbidities. Median delivered intraoperative fluid volume was 4.2 litres, followed by 6.3 litres over the subsequent 24 hours. Perioperative fluid prescription was associated with a positive fluid balance. Complications occurred in 57% of patients with 32% experiencing at least one major complication. Serious complications were substantially more frequent in patients having non-colorectal operations. The most common adverse events were pulmonary oedema (21%), ileus (18%), serious sepsis (17%), pneumonia (17%), arrhythmias (14%), delirium (14%) and wound healing problems (infections 13%, anastomotic leaks 12%). Mortality at 30 days was 2%. This study provides planning data for future interventional studies.

Abnormalities of 53BP1 in Basal-Like Breast Cancer

Background: Abnormalities in the DNA repair mechanism have been proposed to play a central role in the development of breast cancers. However the specific mechanism underlying DNA repair defects in sporadic breast cancer are mostly unknown. As 53BP1 plays a critical role in DNA repair response and has been identified as a potential tumor suppressor, its expression in basal-like breast cancer cell lines and clinical samples was investigated.Experimental Design: mRNA expression of 53BP1 was investigated in publicly available gene expression data sets. Protein expression of 53BP1 was evaluated in a large set of clinically annotated breast cancer specimens by immunohistochemistry. Analysis of 53BP1 and related proteins was performed in a set of human and mouse breast cancer cell lines.Results: Gene expression analysis demonstrated that a subset of basal-like breast cancer had decreased expression of 53BP1. Analysis of over 400 breast cancers in a tissue microarray showed that loss of 53BP1 staining was almost exclusively found in tumors that lacked ER, PR and HER2 expression; this "triple-negative" phenotype is characteristic of BLC. Approximately 42% of "triple-negative" breast cancers have abnormally low levels of 53BP1, while &lt;2% of tumor that express either ER or HER2 lack 53BP1 expression. Tumors that have low 53BP1 expression are associated with worse distant metastasis free survival when compared to tumors with normal 53BP1 expression. A set of breast cancer cell lines with abnormal 53BP1 expression was also identified. 53BP1 abnormalities were present in some tumors and cell lines with known BRCA1 mutations.Discussion: These data suggest that a subset of basal-like breast cancers lack normal 53BP1 expression and imply that these tumors may have profound defects in DNA repair/check point function that could be exploited therapeutically. As 53BP1 abnormalities were found in some tumors with known BRCA1 mutations, this suggests that loss of 53BP1 may cooperate with abnormalities in the BRCA1-related DNA repair pathways in the pathogenesis of basal-like breast cancers. Data regarding the molecular mechanisms underlying 53BP1 abnormalities in breast cancer cell lines and samples will be presented.

Citation Information: Cancer Res 2009;69(24 Suppl):Abstract nr 1122.

Effect of an H2-receptor blocking agent on diarrhoeas after extensive small bowel resection in Crohn's disease

The effect of an H2-receptor blocking agent, cimetidine, on faecal losses of fluid, electrolytes and fat was examined in 10 patients with Crohn's disease, who had diarrhoeas after extensive small bowel resection. A randomized, double-blind and cross-over design was applied, and patients were hospitalized and on a defined diet during the study. Cimetidine, 4 x 400 mg, significantly reduced diarrhoeal volumes by an average of 22% (p less than 0.05) and faecal sodium by 27% (p less than 0.05). Patients with severe diarrhoeas responded better to treatment. No side-effects were recorded. The reported data suggest that cimetidine may be useful in symptomatic treatment of patients with severe diarrhoeas after extensive ileal resection. Due to deficient drug absorption, higher doses may be needed for optimal effect.

Acid instillation increases gastric luminal prostaglandin E2 output in man

The capacity of the gastroduodenal mucosa to maintain integrity when exposed to acid and pepsin may require formation of endogenous prostaglandins (PG). The gastric mucosa is capable of PG biosynthesis, and PGE2 is present in the gastric contents of man. The purpose of this study was to examine if acidification of the human stomach affects the output of PGE2. Gastric perfusion was made with 150 mM HCl in seven healthy subjects pretreated with a histamine-2-receptor blocker (ranitidine). Gastric luminal PGE2 was measured by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Basal output of PGE2 was 1.42 +/- 0.24 pmol/min (mean + SEM), which increased to 5.37 +/- 0.91 pmol/min (p less than 0.02) during acid perfusion. Gastric acidification did not cause mucosal damage as judged by luminal DNA. We conclude that PGE2 is synthesized in the gastric mucosa even during nearly complete inhibition of parietal cell secretion. Luminal acid, a likely physiological stimulator of mucosal defense, induces a fivefold increase in PGE2 output from the intact mucosa.

18F-FDG-PET imaging of a benign neurofibroma masquerading as metastatic oesophageal carcinoma

We present the case of a 65-year-old male with squamous cell carcinoma of the thoracic oesophagus on a background of neurofibromatosis type 1. On computed tomography, he was noted to have a large left-sided superior mediastinal mass. Initially, this mass was thought to be metastatic lymphadenopathy; however, it did not display fluorodeoxyglucose uptake on positron emission tomography. Subsequent biopsy confirmed the mass to be a neurofibroma and the patient commenced definitive chemo-radiation. Positron emission tomography had a major impact on management since the presumed lymph node disease was not included in the radiation field. In addition, positron emission tomography altered prognostic stratification since lymph node involvement is a poor prognostic factor in oesophageal cancer. We could only identify one other case in the English literature in which positron emission tomography was used to distinguish metastatic carcinoma from a neurofibroma, although there are a number of reports that describe the utility of positron emission tomography in differentiating benign neurofibromas from malignant connective tissue tumours.

National registry of patients with short bowel syndrome

In Sweden, with a population of 9 million, there are an estimated 400 people suffering from short bowel syndrome (SBS). These patients are dispersed throughout the country and are cared for mostly by ordinary health-care providers, who have limited experience with SBS. During the last decade the patients and their organizations have expressed increasing concerns about competent and equally distributed care. Against this background, the National Association of People with Stomach and Bowel Diseases, together with a faculty of experts in the field, created a web-based registry to facilitate follow-up and to improve quality of care of SBS patients. Their homepage, www.swegir.com/KTS, is based on the Swedish General Internet Registry administered by the Swedish Society of Surgery and Gastroenterology. Its homepage includes some information on SBS for the public, as well as links to a health manual on SBS and different associations. Behind a fire-wall, health professionals have access to an on-line registry for follow-up of patients with short bowel syndrome. In the future, on-line statistics regarding the number of complications, for example, will be available from the registry. Patients who would benefit from small bowel transplantation could also be identified.

Evolution of surgical treatment for pharyngeal pouch

BACKGROUND

The development of endoscopic techniques, particularly endoscopic stapling, has led to a re-evaluation of the treatment of pharyngeal pouch. The pathophysiology and treatment of the condition is reviewed.

METHODS

An electronic literature search was undertaken on the pathophysiology, history and surgery of pharyngeal pouch (Zenker's diverticulum). These last two terms were used to the search the Cochrane, Medline and Embase databases (from 1966 to date) and the bibliographies of extracted articles.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

With recognition of the central role of the cricopharyngeus muscle in the pathogenesis of pouch formation, the emphasis on treatment has shifted from diverticulectomy to cricopharyngeal myotomy. Minimally invasive techniques have become established since the advent of endoscopic stapling devices. Although randomized controlled data are lacking, the endoscopic approach appears to offer advantages in terms of a shorter duration of anaesthesia, more rapid resumption of oral intake, shorter hospital stay and quicker recovery. It is associated with excellent success rates and minimal morbidity.

Antireflux anastomosis following oesophagectomy

BACKGROUND

Reflux of duodeno-gastric fluid is a significant problem after oesophagectomy with gastric conduit reconstruction. It can impact considerably upon the patient's quality of life and can induce oesophagitis and Barrett's metaplasia in the remnant oesophagus.

AIM

The aim of the present study was to describe the use of a modified fundoplication in controlling reflux after oesophagectomy.

METHODS

Patients undergoing subtotal oesophagectomy at the Royal Adelaide Hospital were identified. Clinical and operative details were obtained from hospital records. All patients had an end oesophagus to side stomach anastomosis. Two cohorts were identified - one with a standard anastomosis only and the other in whom a modified fundoplication had been added. A structured phone interview was used to assess reflux in the two groups with a minimum of 6 months follow up. The interviewer was blinded to the operative details.

RESULTS

The operative technique is described. A total of 44 patients were assessed, 33 having the fundoplication type anastomosis and 11 the standard anastomosis. Operative morbidity was not different between the groups. Symptoms of reflux were better controlled in patients with the fundoplication anastomosis than in patients with a standard anastomosis. Of those with a fundoplication, 14 of 33 patients (42%) were asymptomatic with respect to reflux compared to only one of 11 patients (9%) in the standard anastomosis group. Only four of the 33 patients (12%) with a fundoplication anastomosis had symptoms of severe reflux while seven of the 11 patients (63%) with a standard anastomosis had severe reflux symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

This initial evaluation of a modified fundoplication as an antireflux manoeuvre after oesophagectomy suggests that the technique is effective in controlling post-oesophagectomy reflux in the majority of patients. It is simple to perform and may have benefits in improving quality of life and preventing oesophagitis and metaplastic changes in the remnant oesophagus. A more detailed prospective study of the technique is warranted.

Diaphragmatic hernia after minimally invasive esophagectomy

Diaphragmatic hernia is an uncommon complication that can follow transhiatal esophagectomy. It has not been reported after minimally invasive esophagectomy. We report such a case presenting with features of small bowel obstruction. The paucity of adhesions following the combined laparoscopic and thoracoscopic approach may confer an increased risk of this complication.

Reflux after oesophagectomy

Background

Reflux of gastric and duodenal content after oesophagectomy with gastric conduit reconstruction is a common problem and largely considered an inevitable consequence of surgery. Cervical burning and regurgitation, often more pronounced when supine, can be troublesome and even disabling, interfering substantially with quality of life. The aim of this study was to identify the factors contributing to reflux after oesophagectomy and evaluate measures to prevent or control it.

Methods

A Medline search using the terms ‘gastro-oesophageal reflux’, ‘oesophagectomy’ and ‘antireflux surgery’ was conducted. Additional references and search pathways were sourced from the bibliographies of articles located.

Results and conclusion

Reflux after oesophagectomy is a significant problem, with both clinical and pathological consequences. Simple measures to facilitate gastric emptying, such as creating a gastric tube, performing a pyloric drainage procedure and using gastric motility agents, may produce a reduction in symptoms but do not alone control reflux itself. A variety of surgical reconstructions have been used, many of which are either difficult to fashion or not suitable when a radical resection has been performed. A modified fundoplication at the anastomosis seems to be the simplest technique and may be relatively effective in controlling symptoms. The impact of strategies to reduce reflux on quality of life and on pathological sequelae of reflux in the oesophageal remnant remains to be evaluated.

Short term infusion of glycine-extended gastrin(17) stimulates both proliferation and formation of aberrant crypt foci in rat colonic mucosa

Evidence is accumulating that gastrin precursors may act as growth factors for the colonic mucosa in vivo and for colorectal carcinoma cell lines in vitro. The effect of short term administration of synthetic gastrins on the colonic mucosa in vivo, however, has not been reported. The aim of our study was to determine whether continuous systemic infusion of glycine-extended gastrin(17) stimulated proliferation and accelerated carcinogenesis in the colorectal mucosa. A significant increase in colonic mucosal proliferation as assessed by metaphase index was seen in the caecum (23%, p < 0.02) and distal colon (27%, p < 0.001), but not the rectum, after treatment of intact rats with glycine-extended gastrin(17) for 1 week using implanted miniosmotic pumps. Defunctioning of the rectum reduced both the proliferative index and crypt height of the rectal mucosa of untreated rats. Treatment of rectally defunctioned animals with glycine-extended gastrin(17) for either 1 or 4 weeks resulted in a significant increase in both the proliferative index (40% and 93%, respectively) and crypt height (11% and 19%, respectively) of the rectal mucosa. The total number of aberrant crypt foci in intact rats treated with the procarcinogen azoxymethane plus glycine-extended gastrin(17) was increased by 48% compared to the value in controls treated with azoxymethane only (p = 0.01). We conclude that short term administration of glycine-extended gastrin(17) to mature rats not only has a proliferative effect upon colonic mucosa, but also increases the number of aberrant crypt foci formed in the colorectal mucosa after treatment with azoxymethane. Glycine-extended gastrin(17) could thus potentially act as a promoter of carcinogenesis.

Use of the ACCES model to predict the health economic impact of celecoxib in patients with osteoarthritis or rheumatoid arthritis in Norway

A Norwegian customization of the Arthritis Cost Consequence Evaluation System (ACCES) pharmacoeconomic model was used to predict the economic and health impact of the introduction of celecoxib in Norway. The model predicts that use of celecoxib can be expected to result in a reduction in gastrointestinal events with concomitant annual net savings of at least Norwegian krone (NOK) 580 per osteoarthritis (OA) patient and NOK 514 per rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patient. In a cost-effectiveness analysis, celecoxib demonstrated economic dominance (i.e. improved health at reduced cost) compared with the currently available alternatives. In sensitivity analyses, the results of this model have been shown to be relatively robust, with celecoxib demonstrating economic dominance or favourable cost-effectiveness ratios in all analyses. Based on these data, it can be concluded that the introduction of celecoxib into the Norwegian non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug market, and its use as a first-line agent, will provide societal benefits by improving health care at reduced cost in patients with OA and RA.

Endoscopic plastic surgery

This article discusses three of the most popular endoscopic procedures in plastic surgery. Brow lift, transaxillary breast augmentation, and abdominoplasty are all cosmetic procedures with a high demand on inconspicuous scars; however, many investigators are working on reconstructive endoscopically assisted procedures. The treatment of many facial fractures involving the upper third of the facial skeleton usually requires long bicoronal incisions similar to the incisions used in the traditional brow lift. Attempts are under way to use endoscopically assisted minimal-access techniques to reduce and fixate these fractures. Many flaps used in plastic surgery require long scars for harvest, as in the case of the latissimus dorsi muscle flap. A relatively long incision on the back is needed to gain access to the muscle so that it can be elevated from structures superficial and deep to it. Although it is unpopular, investigators have reported harvesting latissimus dorsi muscle flaps through fairly small incisions with the assistance of balloon dissectors and endoscopes. In the field of hand surgery, carpal tunnel release surgery has had more than one method proposed to transect the carpal ligament using endoscopes and special instrumentation. Although some reported series claim excellent results, many hand surgeons are reluctant to use endoscopes because of associated complications and a high recurrence rate of carpal tunnel syndrome. Plastic surgery has special demands that emphasize aesthetics in cosmetic and reconstructive procedures. Although the lack of natural optical cavities has slowed the incorporation of endoscopic surgery in the specialty, surgically created cavities are used to allow for minimal access incisions. The future of plastic surgery will include an ever-increasing number of endoscopically assisted procedures. Cosmetic and reconstructive procedures will benefit from this new technology.

Is it better to combine predictions?

We have compared the accuracy of the individual protein secondary structure prediction methods: PHD, DSC, NNSSP and Predator against the accuracy obtained by combing the predictions of the methods. A range of ways of combing predictions were tested: voting, biased voting, linear discrimination, neural networks and decision trees. The combined methods that involve 'learning' (the non-voting methods) were trained using a set of 496 non-homologous domains; this dataset was biased as some of the secondary structure prediction methods had used them for training. We used two independent test sets to compare predictions: the first consisted of 17 non-homologous domains from CASP3 (Third Community Wide Experiment on the Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction); the second set consisted of 405 domains that were selected in the same way as the training set, and were non-homologous to each other and the training set. On both test datasets the most accurate individual method was NNSSP, then PHD, DSC and the least accurate was Predator; however, it was not possible to conclusively show a significant difference between the individual methods. Comparing the accuracy of the single methods with that obtained by combing predictions it was found that it was better to use a combination of predictions. On both test datasets it was possible to obtain a approximately 3% improvement in accuracy by combing predictions. In most cases the combined methods were statistically significantly better (at P = 0.05 on the CASP3 test set, and P = 0.01 on the EBI test set). On the CASP3 test dataset there was no significant difference in accuracy between any of the combined method of prediction: on the EBI test dataset, linear discrimination and neural networks significantly outperformed voting techniques. We conclude that it is better to combine predictions.

[NSAID-induced ulcer and its complications]

The past two decades have seen a dramatic increase in the consumption of NSAIDs, despite their notorious association with serious gastrointestinal side effects. Of NSAID users, 20-50 per cent have an ulcer at some time; and 1-2 per cent of those on continuous NSAID treatment are hospitalised annually for ulcer complications, causing death in 10 per cent of cases, or total of 450 deaths annually in the Nordic countries. The risk factors are advanced age, a history of peptic ulcer or NSAID-induced gastrointestinal complications, high-dose NSAID treatment and concomitant cardiovascular disease. Ulcers can be healed with routine treatment, and Heliobacter pylori infection does not seem to be an aggravating factor. As ulcerous complications often appear without prodromal symptoms, prophylaxis should be considered for high-risk patients. Whereas histamine H2-antagonists prevent only duodenal ulcers, omeprazole seems to be effective against gastric and ulcers as well. The prostaglandin E1 analogue misoprostol protects against both gastric and duodenal ulcers, and reduces the risk of serious complications by 40 per cent. Newly developed NSAIDs, highly selective for cyclo-oxygenase 2 (COX-2), may exert potent anti-inflammatory effects without affecting COX-1 or the gastrointestinal mucosa.