Data-driven fine-grained region discovery in the mouse brain with transformers

Technologies such as spatial transcriptomics offer unique opportunities to define the spatial organization of the mouse brain. We developed an unsupervised training scheme and novel transformer-based deep learning architecture to detect spatial domains in mouse whole-brain spatial transcriptomics data. Our model learns local representations of molecular and cellular statistical patterns. These local representations can be clustered to identify spatial domains within the brain from coarse to fine-grained. Discovered domains are spatially regular, even with several hundreds of spatial clusters. They are also consistent with existing anatomical ontologies such as the Allen Mouse Brain Common Coordinate Framework version 3 (CCFv31) and can be visually interpreted at the cell type or transcript level. We demonstrate our method can be used to identify previously uncatalogued subregions, such as in the midbrain, where we uncover gradients of inhibitory neuron complexity and abundance. We apply our method to a separate multi-animal whole-brain spatial transcriptomic dataset and observe that inclusion of both sagittal and coronal tissue slices in region identification improves correspondence of spatial domains to CCF.

The impact of disability on performance in a high-stakes postgraduate surgical examination: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Despite rising numbers of doctors in the workforce with disabilities, little is known about the impact of disabilities on postgraduate performance. To ensure all groups are treated fairly in surgical training, it is essential to know whether any attainment differences exist in markers of surgical performance. To address this gap, we assessed the impact of disabilities on performance on the Intercollegiate Membership of the Royal College of Surgeons examination (MRCS).

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Secondary care.

PARTICIPANTS

All UK MRCS candidates attempting Part A (n = 9600) and Part B (n = 4560) between 2007 and 2017 with linked disability data in the UK Medical Education Database (https://www.ukmed.ac.uk) were included.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Chi-square tests and correlation coefficients established univariate associations with MRCS performance, while multiple logistic regressions identified independent predictors of success.

RESULTS

Though MRCS Part B pass rates were similar (p = 0.339), candidates with registered disabilities had significantly lower first-attempt Part A pass rates (46.3% vs. 59.8%, p < 0.001). Candidates with disabilities also performed less well in examinations taken throughout school and medical school, and after adjusting for prior academic performance and sociodemographic predictors of success, logistic regression found that candidates with disabilities were no less likely to pass MRCS than their peers (odds ratio 1.04, 95% confidence interval 0.66 to 1.62). No significant variation was found in MRCS performance between type of disability or degree of limitations caused by disability (p > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Although candidates with registered disabilities performed less well in formal, written examinations, our data indicate that they are as likely to pass MRCS at first attempt as their peers who achieved similar grades at high school and medical school. In order to enable equity in career progression, further work is needed to investigate the causes of attainment differences in early career assessments.

A cross-sectional study examining the association between MRCS performance and surgeons receiving sanctions against their medical registration

BACKGROUND

Fitness to practice (FtP) investigations by the General Medical Council (GMC) safeguard patients and maintain the integrity of the medical profession. The likelihood of FtP sanctions is influenced by specialty and socio-demographic factors and can be predicted by performance at postgraduate examinations. This is the first study to characterise the prevalence of FtP sanctions in early-career surgeons and to examine the association with performance at the Membership of the Royal College of Surgeons (MRCS) examination.

METHODS

All UK graduates who attempted MRCS between September 2007-January 2020 were matched to the GMC list of registered medical practitioners. Clinicians who had active FtP sanctions between 28th August 2018 and 28th August 2020 were identified. Data were anonymised by RCS England prior to analysis.

RESULTS

Of 11,660 candidates who attempted MRCS within the study period, only 31 (0.3%) had FtP sanctions between 2018 and 2020. Of these, 12 had active conditions on registration, seven had undertakings and 14 had warnings. There was no statistically significant difference in MRCS performance in either Parts A or B of the examination for those with and those free from FtP sanctions (P > 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

In this, the largest study of MRCS candidates to date, the prevalence of active FtP sanctions in early-career surgeons was 0.3%, significantly lower than the prevalence of sanctions across more experienced UK surgeons (0.9%). These data highlight early-career surgeons as a low-risk group for disciplinary action and should reassure patients and medical professionals of the rarity of FtP sanctions.

Predicting the chances of having a baby with or without treatment at different time points in couples with unexplained subfertility

STUDY QUESTION

Can we develop a prediction model that can estimate the chances of conception leading to live birth with and without treatment at different points in time in couples with unexplained subfertility?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Yes, a dynamic model was developed that predicted the probability of conceiving under expectant management and following active treatments (in vitro fertilisation (IVF), intrauterine insemination with ovarian stimulation (IUI + SO), clomiphene) at different points in time since diagnosis.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Couples with no identified cause for their subfertility continue to have a realistic chance of conceiving naturally, which makes it difficult for clinicians to decide when to intervene. Previous fertility prediction models have attempted to address this by separately estimating either the chances of natural conception or the chances of conception following certain treatments. These models only make predictions at a single point in time and are therefore inadequate for informing continued decision-making at subsequent consultations.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

A population-based study of 1316 couples with unexplained subfertility attending a regional clinic between 1998 and 2011.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

A dynamic prediction model was developed that estimates the chances of conception within 6 months from the point when a diagnosis of unexplained subfertility was made. These predictions were recomputed each month to provide a dynamic assessment of the individualised chances of conception while taking account of treatment status in each month. Conception must have led to live birth and treatments included clomiphene, IUI + SO, and IVF. Predictions for natural conception were externally validated using a prospective cohort from The Netherlands.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

A total of 554 (42%) couples started fertility treatment within 2 years of their first fertility consultation. The natural conception leading to live birth rate was 0.24 natural conceptions per couple per year. Active treatment had a higher chance of conception compared to those who remained under expectant management. This association ranged from weak with clomiphene to strong with IVF [clomiphene, hazard ratio (HR) = 1.42 (95% confidence interval, 1.05 to 1.91); IUI + SO, HR = 2.90 (2.06 to 4.08); IVF, HR = 5.09 (4.04 to 6.40)]. Female age and duration of subfertility were significant predictors, without clear interaction with the relative effect of treatment.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

We were unable to adjust for other potentially important predictors, e.g. measures of ovarian reserve, which were not available in the linked Grampian dataset that may have made predictions more specific. This study was conducted using single centre data meaning that it may not be generalizable to other centres. However, the model performed as well as previous models in reproductive medicine when externally validated using the Dutch cohort.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

For the first time, it is possible to estimate the chances of conception following expectant management and different fertility treatments over time in couples with unexplained subfertility. This information will help inform couples and their clinicians of their likely chances of success, which may help manage expectations, not only at diagnostic workup completion but also throughout their fertility journey.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

This work was supported by a Chief Scientist Office postdoctoral training fellowship in health services research and health of the public research (ref PDF/12/06). B.W.M. is supported by an NHMRC Practitioner Fellowship (GNT1082548). B.W.M. reports consultancy for ObsEva, Merck, and Guerbet. None of the other authors declare any conflicts of interest.

Prediction of success at UK Specialty Board Examinations using the mandatory postgraduate UK surgical examination

Background

While performance in other mandatory examinations taken at the beginning of a doctor's career are predictive of final training outcomes, the influence early postgraduate surgical examinations might have on success at Specialty Board Exams in the UK is currently unknown. The aim was to investigate whether performance at the mandatory Membership of the Royal College of Surgeons (MRCS) examination, and other variables, are predictive of success at the Fellowship of the Royal College of Surgeons (FRCS) examination, thus potentially identifying those who may benefit from early academic intervention.

Methods

Pearson correlation coefficients examined the linear relationship between both examinations and logistic regression analysis identified potential independent predictors of FRCS success. All UK medical graduates who attempted either section of FRCS (Sections 1 and 2) between 2012 and 2018 were included.

Results

First attempt pass rates for Sections 1 and 2 FRCS were 87.4 per cent (n = 854) and 91.8 per cent (n = 797) respectively. In logistic regression analysis, sex (male: odds ratio (OR) 2.32, 95 per cent c.i 1.43 to 3.76), age (less than 29 years at graduation: OR 3.22, 1.88 to 5.51), Part B MRCS attempts (1 attempt: OR 1.77, 1.08 to 3.00), Part A score (OR 1.14, 1.09 to 1.89) and Part B score (OR 1.06, 1.03 to 1.09) were independent predictors of Section 1 FRCS success. Predictors of Section 2 FRCS success were age (less than 29 years at graduation: OR 3.55, 2.00 to 6.39), Part A score (OR 1.06, 1.02 to 1.11) and Section 1 FRCS score (OR 1.13, 1.07 to 1.18).

Conclusion

Part A and B MRCS performance were independent predictors of FRCS success, providing further evidence to support the predictive validity of this mandatory postgraduate exam. However, future research must explore the reasons between the attainment gaps observed for different groups of doctors.

The effects of human factor related issues on assessors during the recruitment process for general and vascular surgery in the UK

INTRODUCTION

Healthcare professionals increasingly recognise how human factors (HF) can contribute to medical error. An understanding of HF is also important during other high stakes activities such as summative assessments or examinations. National organisations hosting such events need to be aware of potential fatigue, boredom and stress that can occur in interviewers during these often repetitive activities.

METHODS

A previously validated questionnaire based around the well known HF analysis and classification system (HFACS) was used to evaluate four factors (care and support, asking questions about the role as an interviewer, working within the rules and boundaries, and stress and pressure) at the 2018 UK general and vascular surgery trainee national selection process.

RESULTS

A total of 92 questionnaires were completed and analysed (48% response rate). After recoding for negative phrased questions, no significant differences were found between years of experience in the selection process and mean scores obtained for all four factor items. Interviewers had a positive experience during national selection with mean factor scores ranging from 3.84 to 3.98 (out of a maximum satisfaction score of 5).

CONCLUSIONS

Organisations need to plan carefully and recognise the human element to ensure that their interviewers are cared for during any high stakes assessment such as national selection. Our work suggests that a positive assessor experience will further help contribute to a reliable and fair recruitment process.

Does the Intercollegiate Membership of the Royal College of Surgeons (MRCS) examination predict 'on-the-job' performance during UK higher specialty surgical training?

INTRODUCTION

The Intercollegiate Membership of the Royal College of Surgeons (MRCS) is a mandatory examination to enter higher surgical specialty training in the UK. It is designed to help to ensure that successful candidates are competent to practice as higher surgical trainees. The annual review of competence progression (ARCP) assesses trainees' competence to progress to the next level of training and can be interpreted as a measure of 'on-the-job' performance. We investigated the relationship between MRCS performance and ARCP outcomes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

All UK medical graduates who passed MRCS (Parts A and B) from 2007 to 2016 were included. MRCS scores, attempts and sociodemographics for each candidate were crosslinked with ARCP outcomes (satisfactory, unsatisfactory and insufficient evidence). Multinomial logistic regression was used to identify potential independent predictors of ARCP outcomes.

RESULTS

A total of 2570 trainees underwent 11,064 ARCPs; 1589 (61.8%) had only satisfactory outcomes recorded throughout training; 510 (19.9%) had at least one unsatisfactory outcome; and 471 (18.3%) supplied insufficient evidence. After adjusting for age, gender, first language and Part A performance, ethnicity (non-white vs white, OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.71), Part B passing score (OR 0.98, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.00) and number of attempts at Part B (two or more attempts vs one attempt, OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.94) were found to be independent predictors of an unsatisfactory ARCP outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study to identify predictors of ARCP outcomes during higher surgical specialty training in the UK and provides further evidence of the predictive validity of the MRCS examination.

Smoking, Haemostatic Factors and the Severity of Aorto-lliac and Femoro-Popliteal Disease

To determine relationships between haemostatic and rheological factors and severity of peripheral atherosclerosis and differences by site, an angiographic cross-sectional survey was carried out on 192 men and women with intermittent claudication or rest pain. 34 patients were classified as having aorto-iliac disease, 85 femoro-popliteal disease and 73 dual-site disease. Mean levels of haemostatic or rheological factors did not differ significantly between the three site groups. In all 192 patients, disease severity in the femoro-popliteal segments was correlated with plasma nephelometric fibrinogen (r = 0.20, p ≤0.01), von Willebrand factor (r = 0.14, p ≤0.05) and fibrin D-dimer (r = 0.22, p ≤0.001). On multiple regression analyses, fibrinogen was independently associated with disease severity in the femoro-popliteal segments (p ≤0.05), but not in the aorto-iliac segments. Adjustment for packyears or serum thiocyanate had little effect on the association of fibrinogen with severity of disease. An inverse relationship between plasminogen activator inhibitor and disease severity in the femoro-popliteal segments was found only in men (r = -0.24, p ≤0.01). We conclude that elevated fibrinogen and disturbed fibrinolytic activity may be related to the extent of disease within the femoro-popliteal arteries, more so than in the aorto-iliac arteries.

Proton pump inhibitor and histamine-2 receptor antagonist use and risk of liver cancer in two population-based studies

BACKGROUND

Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) and histamine-2 receptor antagonists (H2RAs) are commonly used. PPIs have been shown to promote liver cancer in rats; however, only one study has examined the association in humans.

AIMS

To investigate PPIs and H2RAs and risk of primary liver cancer in two large independent study populations.

METHODS

We conducted a nested case-control study within the Primary Care Clinical Informatics Unit (PCCIU) database in which up to five controls were matched to cases with primary liver cancer, recorded by General Practitioners. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for associations with prescribed PPIs and H2RAs were calculated using conditional logistic regression. We also conducted a prospective cohort study within the UK Biobank using self-reported medication use and cancer-registry recorded primary liver cancer. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were calculated using Cox regression.

RESULTS

In the PCCIU case-control analysis, 434 liver cancer cases were matched to 2103 controls. In the UK Biobank cohort, 182 of 475 768 participants developed liver cancer. In both, ever use of PPIs was associated with increased liver cancer risk (adjusted OR 1.80, 95% CI 1.34, 2.41 and adjusted HR 1.99, 95% CI 1.34, 2.94 respectively). There was little evidence of association with H2RA use (adjusted OR 1.21, 95% CI 0.84, 1.76 and adjusted HR 1.70, 95% CI 0.82, 3.53 respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

We found some evidence that PPI use was associated with liver cancer. Whether this association is causal or reflects residual confounding or reverse causation requires additional research.

Factors predicting success in the Intercollegiate Membership of the Royal College of Surgeons (MRCS) examination: a summary for OMFS

The Intercollegiate Membership of the Royal College of Surgeons (MRCS, parts A and B) is a mandatory examination for entry into higher surgical training in the UK. We investigated which factors predict success in both the written (Part A) and clinical (Part B) parts of the examination, and provide a summary for oral and maxillofacial surgeons (OMFS). All UK graduates who attempted both parts between 2007 and 2016 were included. There was a positive correlation between the scores in parts A and B (r=0.41, p<0.01). For Part A, men (odds ratio (OR) 2.78; 95% CI 1.83 to 4.19), white candidates (OR 1.70; 95% CI 1.52 to 1.89), and younger graduates (under 29years of age), were more likely to pass (OR 2.60; 95% CI 1.81 to 3.63). Foundation year one (FY1) doctors had higher pass rates than all other grades (e.g. core surgical trainee 2 compared with FY1 OR 0.50; 95% CI 0.32 to 0.77). The number of attempts at Part A and the final score, as well as ethnicity and stage of training, were independent predictors of success in Part B. Candidates who did well in Part A were more likely to do well in Part B. Several independent predictors of success were identified, but only the stage of training and ethnicity were common predictors in both parts. Higher scores obtained by younger candidates might be relevant to OMFS trainees who take Part A after studying medicine as a second degree.

Predictors of success in the Intercollegiate Membership of the Royal College of Surgeons (MRCS) examination

Introduction The Intercollegiate Membership of the Royal College of Surgeons (MRCS, Parts A and B) is designed to safeguard patients and ensure high standards for trainees wishing to pursue a surgical career. We investigated which factors predict Part A and B success. Methods UK graduates who had attempted both parts of MRCS from September 2007 to February 2016 were included. Pearson correlation coefficients were used to examine the linear relationship between each part of MRCS and logistic regression analysis to identify potential independent predictors of MRCS pass/fail outcome. Results A positive correlation between Part A and B score was identified (r = 0.41, P < 0.01). In Part A, males had higher pass rates than females (odds ratio, OR, 2.78, 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.83-4.19), white candidates were more likely to pass than black minority and ethnic doctors (OR 1.70, 95% CI 1.52-1.89), foundation year 1 doctors had higher pass rates than all other grades (e.g. core surgical year 2 trainees vs. foundation year 1 doctors, OR 0.50, 95% CI 0.32-0.77) and younger graduates were more likely to pass than older graduates (OR 2.60, 95% CI 1.81-3.63). In addition to ethnicity and stage of training, Part A performance (number of attempts and score) was an independent predictor for Part B. Conclusions Part A performance is related to Part B score. Many independent predictors of MRCS success were identified, but only stage of training and ethnicity were found to be common predictors of both parts. This article summarises the findings of our most recent MRCS study which was published in The Surgeon (online) in October 2017. ¹.

Impact of performance in a mandatory postgraduate surgical examination on selection into specialty training

Background

The Intercollegiate Membership of the Royal College of Surgeons (MRCS) examination is undertaken by large numbers of trainees in the UK and internationally as a mandatory step within surgical training. Unlike some high-stakes medical examinations, the MRCS is yet to be validated. A quantitative study was undertaken to assess its predictive validity by investigating the relationship between MRCS (Parts A and B) and national selection interview scores for general and vascular surgery in the UK.

Methods

Pearson correlation coefficients were used to examine the linear relationship between each assessment, and linear regression analyses were employed to identify potential independent predictors of the national selection score. All UK medical graduates who attempted the interview in 2011-2015 were included.

Results

Some 84·4 per cent of the candidates (1231 of 1458) were matched with MRCS data. There was a significant positive correlation between the first attempt score at Part B of the MRCS examination and the national selection score (r = 0·38, P < 0·001). In multivariable analysis, 17 per cent of variance in the national selection first attempt score was explained by the Part B MRCS score and number of attempts (change in R ² value of 0·10 and 0·07 respectively; P < 0·001). Candidates who required more than two attempts at Part B were predicted to score 8·1 per cent less than equally matched candidates who passed at their first attempt.

Conclusion

This study supports validity of the MRCS examination, and indicates its predictive value regarding entry into specialist training.

Neuropsychological Functioning following Fetal Striatal Transplantation in Huntington's Chorea: Three Case Presentations

Neurotransplantation has been proposed as a potential treatment for the neurodegenerative disorder of Huntington's disease (HD), which currently has no effective therapy. While patients with Parkinson's disease have received neurotransplantation, until recently no HD patients have undergone transplantation for HD with standardized evaluations of their progress following surgery. The current report presents the cognitive changes in three patients with HD who underwent bilateral transplantation of human fetal striatal tissue. As part of the pre- and postsurgical evaluation, all three patients were administered a neuropsychological battery sensitive to the cognitive effects of HD within 2 mo prior to surgery and at 4-6 mo following transplantation. Four to 6 mo subsequent to surgery, all patients demonstrated increased scores on some measures of cognitive functioning. However, the pattern of changes was not uniform across subjects. These findings suggest that fetal striatal transplantation may improve some of the cognitive symptoms associated with HD in the three reported patients.

A comprehensive approach for evaluating telemedicine-delivered multidisciplinary breast cancer meetings in southern Scotland

Multidisciplinary team (MDT) meetings for decisions on cancer management are a cornerstone of UK cancer policy. We have proposed a comprehensive methodology to assess the clinical and economic effectiveness of telemedicine in this setting, which is being tested in a randomized breast cancer trial. Pre- and post-telemedicine assessment includes attitudes to and expectations of telemedicine, based on semistructured interviews. The communication content of videotapes of the MDT meeting is being scored using Borgatta's revised Interaction Process Analysis System. The technical performance of the telemedicine equipment is reported on a standardized pro forma. A short questionnaire captures key elements of professional satisfaction for each patient discussion (consensus on future management, confidence in and sharing of decision), added value of linkage, group atmosphere, overall conduct of the meeting and compliance with SIGN guidelines. A cost-minimization analysis will be used for economic assessment.

Multi-layer compression: comparison of four different four-layer bandage systems applied to the leg

Objective: To compare on standardized laboratory models the performance of four commercially available four-layer bandage systems.

Methods: Four experienced bandagers applied each of the four systems [Profore® Regular (Smith & Nephew, Hull, UK), Ultra Four (Robinsons, Chesterfield, UK), System 4 (SSL International, Knutsford, UK) and K-Four® (Parema, Loughborough, UK)] to two models: a 12.5 cm diameter padded cylinder and a 9.5-14.5 cm padded cone. Bandages were applied individually in single layers and as a completed system using standard application techniques. Pressures were measured by the Borgnis Medical Stocking Tester at positions corresponding to ankle, gaiter and mid-calf areas as determined by the pressure sensor.

Results: A total of 768 observations were made: 384 for each model, 192 for each bandaging system, 192 for each bandager and 128 for each measuring point. The increase in pressure produced by each additional layer was in the range of 50-60% of the pressure achieved by the same bandage when used as a single layer. Each bandage system and each bandager produced a gradient of final mean pressure irrespective of whether the bandage was applied to a cylinder or a cone. However, there were no significant differences in the gradients between the four bandage systems or between the four bandagers. There were significant differences in the final pressures achieved among the bandage systems when applied as completed systems (mean: Profore® = 42 mmHg; System 4 = 45 mmHg; K-Four® = 48 mmHg; and Ultra Four = 51 mmHg; P<0.001).

Conclusions: These results challenge a commonly-held assumption concerning the additive effect of pressures generated by successive bandage layers. When applied as part of a multi-layered system each bandage adds just over half the pressure achieved by the same bandage when applied alone. The four completed systems produced pressures within a range appropriate for ulcer therapy, although there were significant differences in mean pressures. This capability of the systems to produce different pressures could be clinically important in the hands of inexperienced bandagers or with patients at risk of pressure damage..

General practice performance in referral for suspected cancer: influence of number of cases and case-mix on publicly reported data

Background:

Publicly available data show variation in GPs' use of urgent suspected cancer (USC) referral pathways. We investigated whether this could be due to small numbers of cancer cases and random case-mix, rather than due to true variation in performance.

Methods:

We analysed individual GP practice USC referral detection rates (proportion of the practice's cancer cases that are detected via USC) and conversion rates (proportion of the practice's USC referrals that prove to be cancer) in routinely collected data from GP practices in all of England (over 4 years) and northeast Scotland (over 7 years). We explored the effect of pooling data. We then modelled the effects of adding random case-mix to practice variation.

Results:

Correlations between practice detection rate and conversion rate became less positive when data were aggregated over several years. Adding random case-mix to between-practice variation indicated that the median proportion of poorly performing practices correctly identified after 25 cancer cases were examined was 20% (IQR 17 to 24) and after 100 cases was 44% (IQR 40 to 47).

Conclusions:

Much apparent variation in GPs' use of suspected cancer referral pathways can be attributed to random case-mix. The methods currently used to assess the quality of GP-suspected cancer referral performance, and to compare individual practices, are misleading. These should no longer be used, and more appropriate and robust methods should be developed.

Time from first presentation in primary care to treatment of symptomatic colorectal cancer: effect on disease stage and survival

Background:

British 5-year survival from colorectal cancer (CRC) is below the European average, but the reasons are unclear. This study explored if longer provider delays (time from presentation to treatment) were associated with more advanced stage disease at diagnosis and poorer survival.

Methods:

Data on 958 people with CRC were linked with the Scottish Cancer Registry, the Scottish Death Registry and the acute hospital discharge (SMR01) dataset. Time from first presentation in primary care to first treatment, disease stage at diagnosis and survival time from date of first presentation in primary care were determined. Logistic regression and Cox survival analyses, both with a restricted cubic spline, were used to model stage and survival, respectively, following sequential adjustment of patient and tumour factors.

Results:

On univariate analysis, those with <4 weeks from first presentation in primary care to treatment had more advanced disease at diagnosis and the poorest prognosis. Treatment delays between 4 and 34 weeks were associated with earlier stage (with the lowest odds ratio occurring at 20 weeks) and better survival (with the lowest hazard ratio occurring at 16 weeks). Provider delays beyond 34 weeks were associated with more advanced disease at diagnosis, but not increased mortality. Following adjustment for patient, tumour factors, emergency admissions and symptoms and signs, no significant relationship between provider delay and stage at diagnosis or survival from CRC was found.

Conclusions:

Although allowing for a nonlinear relationship and important confounders, moderately long provider delays did not impact adversely on cancer outcomes. Delays are undesirable because they cause anxiety; this may be fuelled by government targets and health campaigns stressing the importance of very prompt cancer diagnosis. Our findings should reassure patients. They suggest that a health service's primary emphasis should be on quality and outcomes rather than on time to treatment.

Incidence and risk factors for venous reflux in the general population: Edinburgh Vein Study

OBJECTIVE/BACKGROUND

Chronic venous disease (CVD) is common, but the incidence of venous reflux, a precursor to this condition, is unknown. This study measured the incidence of venous reflux and associated risk factors, and examined the association between venous reflux and the incidence of CVD.

METHODS

In the Edinburgh Vein Study, a random sample of 1566 men and women aged 18-64 years were examined at baseline. Eight hundred and eighty of these patients were followed up 13 years and underwent an examination comprising clinical classification of CVD and duplex scanning of the deep and superficial systems to measure venous reflux ≥0.5 s.

RESULTS

The 13-year incidence of reflux was 12.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 9.2-17.2), equivalent to an annual incidence of 0.9% (95% CI 0.7-1.3). The 13-year incidence of isolated superficial, isolated deep, and combined deep and superficial reflux was 8.8% (95% CI 5.6-12.0), 2.6% (95% CI 1.2-5.0), and 1.3% (95% CI 0.4-3.2), respectively. The highest incidence was in the great saphenous vein in the lower thigh (8.1%, 95% CI 5.4-11.8). There were no age or sex differences (p > .050). The risk of developing reflux was associated with being overweight (odds ratio [OR] 2.1, 95% CI 1.0-4.4) and with history of deep vein thrombosis (OR 11.3, 95% CI 1.0-132.3). Venous reflux at baseline was associated with new varicose veins at follow up (p < .001): the age- and sex-adjusted OR was 4.4 (95% CI 1.8-10.8) in those with isolated superficial reflux and 7.3 (95% CI 2.6-22.5) in those with combined deep and superficial reflux.

CONCLUSION

For every year of follow-up, around 1% of this adult population developed venous reflux. In two thirds of cases, the superficial system was affected. Venous reflux increased the risk of developing varicose veins, especially when combined deep and superficial reflux was present.

BOADICEA breast cancer risk prediction model: updates to cancer incidences, tumour pathology and web interface

BACKGROUND

The Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm (BOADICEA) is a risk prediction model that is used to compute probabilities of carrying mutations in the high-risk breast and ovarian cancer susceptibility genes BRCA1 and BRCA2, and to estimate the future risks of developing breast or ovarian cancer. In this paper, we describe updates to the BOADICEA model that extend its capabilities, make it easier to use in a clinical setting and yield more accurate predictions.

METHODS

We describe: (1) updates to the statistical model to include cancer incidences from multiple populations; (2) updates to the distributions of tumour pathology characteristics using new data on BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers and women with breast cancer from the general population; (3) improvements to the computational efficiency of the algorithm so that risk calculations now run substantially faster; and (4) updates to the model's web interface to accommodate these new features and to make it easier to use in a clinical setting.

RESULTS

We present results derived using the updated model, and demonstrate that the changes have a significant impact on risk predictions.

CONCLUSION

All updates have been implemented in a new version of the BOADICEA web interface that is now available for general use: http://ccge.medschl.cam.ac.uk/boadicea/.

Patchiness of ion-exchanged mica revealed by DNA binding dynamics at short length scales

The binding of double-stranded (ds) DNA to mica can be controlled through ion-exchanging the mica with divalent cations. Measurements of the end-to-end distance of linear DNA molecules discriminate whether the binding mechanism occurs through 2D surface equilibration or kinetic trapping. A range of linear dsDNA fragments have been used to investigate length dependences of binding. Mica, ion-exchanged with Ni(II) usually gives rise to kinetically trapped DNA molecules, however, short linear fragments (<800 bp) are seen to deviate from the expected behaviour. This indicates that ion-exchanged mica is heterogeneous, and contains patches or domains, separating different ionic species. These results correlate with imaging of dsDNA under aqueous buffer on Ni(II)-mica and indicate that binding domains are of the order of 100 nm in diameter. Shorter DNA fragments behave intermediate to the two extreme cases of 2D equilibration and kinetic trapping. Increasing the incubation time of Ni(II) on mica, from minutes to hours, brings the conformations of the shorter DNA fragments closer to the theoretical value for kinetic trapping, indicating that long timescale kinetics play a role in ion-exchange. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) was used to confirm that the relative abundance of Ni(II) ions on the mica surface increases with time. These findings can be used to enhance spatial control of binding of DNA to inorganic surfaces with a view to patterning high densities arrays.

Development and validation of an ankle brachial index risk model for the prediction of cardiovascular events

BACKGROUND

The ankle brachial index (ABI) is related to risk of cardiovascular events independent of the Framingham risk score (FRS). The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate a risk model for cardiovascular events incorporating the ABI and FRS.

DESIGN

An analysis of participant data from 18 cohorts in which 24,375 men and 20,377 women free of coronary heart disease had ABI measured and were followed up for events.

METHODS

Subjects were divided into a development and internal validation dataset and an external validation dataset. Two models, comprising FRS and FRS + ABI, were fitted for the primary outcome of major coronary events.

RESULTS

In predicting events in the external validation dataset, C-index for the FRS was 0.672 (95% CI 0.599 to 0.737) in men and 0.578 (95% CI 0.492 to 0.661) in women. The FRS + ABI led to a small increase in C-index in men to 0.685 (95% CI 0.612 to 0.749) and large increase in women to 0.690 (95% CI 0.605 to 0.764) with net reclassification improvement (NRI) of 4.3% (95% CI 0.0 to 7.6%, p = 0.050) and 9.6% (95% CI 6.1 to 16.4%, p < 0.001), respectively. Restricting the FRS + ABI model to those with FRS intermediate 10-year risk of 10 to 19% resulted in higher NRI of 15.9% (95% CI 6.1 to 20.6%, p < 0.001) in men and 23.3% (95% CI 13.8 to 62.5%, p = 0.002) in women. However, incorporating ABI in an improved newly fitted risk factor model had a nonsignificant effect: NRI 2.0% (95% CI 2.3 to 4.2%, p = 0.567) in men and 1.1% (95% CI 1.9 to 4.0%, p = 0.483) in women.

CONCLUSIONS

An ABI risk model may improve prediction especially in individuals at intermediate risk and when performance of the base risk factor model is modest.

Pregnancy outcomes of women with and without a history of anorexia nervosa

BACKGROUND

When women have a history of anorexia nervosa (AN), the advice given about becoming pregnant, and about the management of pregnancies, has usually been cautious. This study compared the pregnancy outcomes of women with and without a history of AN.

METHOD

Women with a confirmed diagnosis of AN who had presented to psychiatric services in North East Scotland from 1965 to 2007 were identified. Those women with a pregnancy recorded in the Aberdeen Maternal and Neonatal Databank (AMND) were each matched by age, parity and year of delivery of their first baby with five women with no history of AN. Maternal and foetal outcomes were compared between these two groups of women. Comparisons were also made between the mothers with a history of AN and all other women in the AMND.

RESULTS

A total of 134 women with a history of AN delivered 230 babies and the 670 matched women delivered 1144 babies. Mothers with AN delivered lighter babies but this difference did not persist after adjusting for maternal body mass index (BMI) in early pregnancy. Standardized birthweight (SBW) scores suggested that the AN mothers were more likely to produce babies with intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) [relative risk (RR) 1.54, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.11-2.13]. AN mothers were more likely to experience antepartum haemorrhage (RR 1.70, 95% CI 1.09-2.65).

CONCLUSIONS

Mothers with a history of AN are at increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. The magnitude of these risks is relatively small and should be appraised holistically by psychiatric and obstetric services.

Telangiectasia and venous reflux in the Edinburgh Vein Study

Objective

The purpose of this study was to correlate the clinical findings in the Edinburgh Vein Study with the results of duplex scanning of the deep and superficial venous systems.

Methods

An age-stratified random sample of 1566 people (699 men and 867 women) aged 16–64 were selected from computerized age–sex registers of participating practices (twelve general practices with catchment areas geographically and socioeconomically distributed throughout Edinburgh). Screening included clinical examination, photography and duplex ultrasonography of the superficial veins and the deep veins down to popliteal level. Telangiectasia and varicose veins were graded 1–3 according to severity.

Results

Since there was good agreement between the duplex findings of the right versus left legs, the current analyses are based on 1092 subjects (486 men and 606 women) with complete duplex scan data in their left legs. There was no significant trend of increasing incompetence in either the deep veins only ( P = 0.214) or in the combined deep and superficial veins ( P = 0.111) with increasing severity of the telangiectasia. There was a statistically significant trend for increasing incompetence in (a) the superficial veins ( P = 0.006) and (b) either the superficial or deep veins ( P < 0.001) to be associated with advancing grade of telangiectasia. When stratified by gender, significant trends were maintained for male superficial vein incompetence and for either superficial or deep incompetence in both genders. Examination of incompetence in individual venous segments showed that increasing severity of telangiectasia was significantly associated with an increasing proportion of reflux in the upper and lower great saphenous and femoral vein segments. There was no significant association between small saphenous incompetence and increasing grade of telangiectasia.

Conclusion

There is a significant, but not wholly consistent, association between grade of telangiectasia and reflux in both the deep and superficial systems. This association does not apply to the small saphenous system.

Evaluating the effectiveness of a web-based intervention to promote mental wellbeing in women and partners following miscarriage, using a modified patient preference trial design: an external pilot

This article describes an external pilot study of a modified 'partially randomised patient preference' trial comparing a web-based intervention (designed to promote mental wellbeing) with standard care post-miscarriage. Assessment comprised an online administration of baseline measures with follow-up at 3 months following registration. Baseline data were obtained from 60 women (and seven partners) post-discharge from one of two Early Pregnancy Assessment Units. 'Intention to treat' versus a 'per protocol' sensitivity analysis showed the effects of introducing a 'preference' option post-randomisation, and highlights the benefits compared with a randomised controlled trial design to enable a robust evaluation of the website in promoting mental wellbeing after miscarriage.

Hysterectomy, endometrial ablation and Mirena® for heavy menstrual bleeding: a systematic review of clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness analysis

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this project was to determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of hysterectomy, first- and second-generation endometrial ablation (EA), and Mirena® (Bayer Healthcare Pharmaceuticals, Pittsburgh, PA, USA) for the treatment of heavy menstrual bleeding.

DESIGN

Individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis of existing randomised controlled trials to determine the short- to medium-term effects of hysterectomy, EA and Mirena. A population-based retrospective cohort study based on record linkage to investigate the long-term effects of ablative techniques and hysterectomy in terms of failure rates and complications. Cost-effectiveness analysis of hysterectomy versus first- and second-generation ablative techniques and Mirena.

SETTING

Data from women treated for heavy menstrual bleeding were obtained from national and international trials. Scottish national data were obtained from the Scottish Information Services Division.

PARTICIPANTS

Women who were undergoing treatment for heavy menstrual bleeding were included.

INTERVENTIONS

Hysterectomy, first- and second-generation EA, and Mirena.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Satisfaction, recurrence of symptoms, further surgery and costs.

RESULTS

Data from randomised trials indicated that at 12 months more women were dissatisfied with first-generation EA than hysterectomy [odds ratio (OR): 2.46, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.54 to 3.93; p = 0.0002), but hospital stay [WMD (weighted mean difference) 3.0 days, 95% CI 2.9 to 3.1 days; p < 0.00001] and time to resumption of normal activities (WMD 5.2 days, 95% CI 4.7 to 5.7 days; p < 0.00001) were longer for hysterectomy. Unsatisfactory outcomes associated with first- and second-generation techniques were comparable [12.2% (123/1006) vs 10.6% (110/1034); OR 1.20, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.62; p = 0.2). Rates of dissatisfaction with Mirena and second-generation EA were similar [18.1% (17/94) vs 22.5% (23/102); OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.38 to 1.53; p = 0.4]. Indirect estimates suggested that hysterectomy was also preferable to second-generation EA (OR 2.32, 95% CI 1.27 to 4.24; p = 0.006) in terms of patient dissatisfaction. The evidence to suggest that hysterectomy is preferable to Mirena was weaker (OR 2.22, 95% CI 0.94 to 5.29; p = 0.07). In women treated by EA or hysterectomy and followed up for a median [interquartile range (IQR)] duration of 6.2 (2.7-10.8) and 11.6 (7.9-14.8) years, respectively, 962/11,299 (8.5%) women originally treated by EA underwent further gynaecological surgery. While the risk of adnexal surgery was similar in both groups [adjusted hazards ratio 0.80 (95% CI 0.56 to 1.15)], women who had undergone ablation were less likely to need pelvic floor repair [adjusted hazards ratio 0.62 (95% CI 0.50 to 0.77)] and tension-free vaginal tape surgery for stress urinary incontinence [adjusted hazards ratio 0.55 (95% CI 0.41 to 0.74)]. Abdominal hysterectomy led to a lower chance of pelvic floor repair surgery [hazards ratio 0.54 (95% CI 0.45 to 0.64)] than vaginal hysterectomy. The incidence of endometrial cancer following EA was 0.02%. Hysterectomy was the most cost-effective treatment. It dominated first-generation EA and, although more expensive, produced more quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) than second-generation EA and Mirena. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for hysterectomy compared with Mirena and hysterectomy compared with second-generation ablation were £1440 per additional QALY and £970 per additional QALY, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite longer hospital stay and time to resumption of normal activities, more women were satisfied after hysterectomy than after EA. The few data available suggest that Mirena is potentially cheaper and more effective than first-generation ablation techniques, with rates of satisfaction that are similar to second-generation techniques. Owing to a paucity of trials, there is limited evidence to suggest that hysterectomy is preferable to Mirena. The risk of pelvic floor surgery is higher in women treated by hysterectomy than by ablation. Although the most cost-effective strategy, hysterectomy may not be considered an initial option owing to its invasive nature and higher risk of complications. Future research should focus on evaluation of the clinical effectivesness and cost-effectiveness of the best second-generation EA technique under local anaesthetic versus Mirena and types of hysterectomy such as laparoscopic supracervical hysterectomy versus conventional hysterectomy and second-generation EA.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Asthma control with extrafine-particle hydrofluoroalkane-beclometasone vs. large-particle chlorofluorocarbon-beclometasone: a real-world observational study

BACKGROUND

The extrafine-particle formulation of hydrofluoroalkane-beclometasone (EF HFA-BDP; Qvar®) demonstrates improved total and small airway deposition compared with large-particle chlorofluorocarbon (CFC)-BDP. In some short-term studies, EF HFA-BDP provides greater effects on lung function than CFC-BDP, and hence is recommended to be prescribed at a lower dose, but whether there are differences in asthma outcomes during long-term treatment is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the effectiveness of EF HFA-BDP vs. CFC-BDP over 1 year.

METHODS

This retrospective matched cohort study examined outcomes in a large primary care database for patients aged 5-60 years with asthma receiving their first inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) prescription (initiation population) or first ICS dose increase (step-up population) by a pressurized metered-dose inhaler (pMDI) as EF HFA-BDP or CFC-BDP. Patients were matched on baseline demographic and asthma severity measures in EF HFA-BDP:CFC-BDP ratios of 1:3 and 1:2 for initiation and step-up populations, respectively. Step-up patients were matched also on ICS dose during a baseline year. Co-primary endpoints were asthma control (composite measure comprising no recorded hospital attendance for asthma, oral corticosteroids, or antibiotics for lower respiratory infection) and exacerbation rate during the outcome year.

RESULTS

For the initiation population (EF HFA-BDP n=2882; CFC-BDP n=8646), adjusted odds of achieving asthma control with EF HFA-BDP vs. CFC-BDP was 1.15 (95% CI 1.02-1.28). For the step-up population (n=258 and 516), adjusted odds of asthma control with EF HFA-BDP was 1.72 (95% CI 1.14-2.56). EF HFA-BDP was prescribed at a median dose half that of CFC-BDP.

CONCLUSION AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE

During 1 year after initiating or stepping up ICS therapy by pMDI, patients who received EF HFA-BDP were more likely to achieve asthma control than those receiving CFC-BDP. These findings suggest that ICS formulation, particle size, and deposition characteristics play important roles in real-life effectiveness of asthma therapy. This study shows that an EF-particle formulation of beclometasone can be used at half the dose of the large-particle formulation with at least as good clinical outcomes.

Modifiable and fixed factors predicting quality of life in people with colorectal cancer

Background:

People with colorectal cancer have impaired quality of life (QoL). We investigated what factors were most highly associated with it.

Methods:

Four hundred and ninety-six people with colorectal cancer completed questionnaires about QoL, functioning, symptoms, co-morbidity, cognitions and personal and social factors. Disease, treatment and co-morbidity data were abstracted from case notes. Multiple linear regression identified modifiable and unmodifiable factors independently predictive of global quality of life (EORTC-QLQ-C30).

Results:

Of unmodifiable factors, female sex (P<0.001), more self-reported co-morbidities (P=0.006) and metastases at diagnosis (P=0.036) significantly predicted poorer QoL, but explained little of the variability in the model (R²=0.064). Adding modifiable factors, poorer role (P<0.001) and social functioning (P=0.003), fatigue (P=0.001), dyspnoea (P=0.001), anorexia (P<0.001), depression (P<0.001) and worse perceived consequences (P=0.013) improved the model fit considerably (R²=0.574). Omitting functioning subscales resulted in recent diagnosis (P=0.002), lower perceived personal control (P=0.020) and travel difficulties (P<0.001) becoming significant predictors.

Conclusion:

Most factors affecting QoL are modifiable, especially symptoms (fatigue, anorexia, dyspnoea) and depression. Beliefs about illness are also important. Unmodifiable factors, including metastatic (or unstaged) disease at diagnosis, have less impact. There appears to be potential for interventions to improve QoL in patients with colorectal cancer.

Patient satisfaction with GP-led melanoma follow-up: a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

There are no universally accepted guidelines for the follow-up of individuals with cutaneous melanoma. Furthermore, to date, there have been no randomised controlled trials of different models of melanoma follow-up care. This randomised controlled trial was conducted to evaluate the effects of GP-led melanoma follow-up on patient satisfaction, follow-up guideline compliance, anxiety and depression, as well as health status.

METHODS

A randomised controlled trial of GP-led follow-up of cutaneous melanoma was conducted over a period of 1 year with assessment by self-completed questionnaires and review of general practice-held medical records at baseline and 12 months later. It took place in 35 general practices in North-east Scotland. Subjects were 142 individuals (51.4% women 48.6% men; mean (s.d.) age 59.2 (15.2) years previously treated for cutaneous melanoma and free of recurrent disease. The intervention consisted of protocol-driven melanoma reviews in primary care, conducted by trained GPs and supported by centralised recall, rapid access pathway to secondary care and a patient information booklet. The main outcome measure was patient satisfaction measured by questionnaire. Secondary outcomes were adherence to guidelines, health status measured by Short Form-36 and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale.

RESULTS

There were significant improvements in 5 out of 15 aspects of patient satisfaction during the study year in those receiving GP-led melanoma follow-up (all P<or=0.01). The intervention group was significantly more satisfied with 7 out of 15 aspects of care at follow-up after adjustment for potential confounders. There was significantly greater adherence to guidelines in the intervention group during the study year. There was no significant difference in health status or anxiety and depression between intervention and control groups at either baseline or outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

GP-led follow-up is feasible, engenders greater satisfaction in those patients who receive it, permits closer adherence to guidelines and does not result in adverse effects on health status or anxiety and depression when compared with traditional hospital-based follow-up for melanoma.

Symptoms of depression but not anxiety are associated with central obesity and cardiovascular disease in people with type 2 diabetes: the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of the study was to identify risk factors for depression and anxiety in a well-characterised cohort of individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

METHODS

We used baseline data from participants (n = 1,066, 48.7% women, aged 67.9 +/- 4.2 years) from the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study. Symptoms of anxiety and depression were assessed using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). Obesity was characterised according to both overall (body mass index, fat mass) and abdominal (waist circumference) measurements. Cardiovascular disease was assessed by questionnaire, physical examination and review of medical records. Stepwise multiple linear regression was performed to identify explanatory variables related to either anxiety or depression HADS scores.

RESULTS

Abdominal obesity (waist circumference) and cardiovascular disease (ischaemic heart disease and ankle-brachial pressure index) were related to depression but not anxiety. Lifetime history of severe hypoglycaemia was associated with anxiety. Other cardiovascular risk factors or microvascular complications were not related to either anxiety or depressive symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Depression but not anxiety is associated with abdominal obesity and cardiovascular disease in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus. This knowledge may help to identify depressive symptoms among patients with type 2 diabetes who are at greatest risk.

A remedial intervention linked to a formative assessment is effective in terms of improving student performance in subsequent degree examinations

BACKGROUND

Intervention may help weaker medical students improve their performance. However, the effectiveness of remedial intervention is inconclusive due to small sample sizes in previous studies. We asked: is remedial intervention linked to a formative assessment effective in terms of improving student performance in subsequent degree examinations?

METHODS

This was a retrospective, observational study of anonymous databases of student assessment outcomes. Data were analysed for students due to graduate in the years 2005-2009 (n = 909). Exam performance was compared for students who received remediation versus those who did not. The main outcome measure was summative degree examination marks.

RESULTS

After adjusting for cohort, gender, overseas versus home funding, previous degree and previous performance in the corresponding baseline third year summative exam, students receiving a remedial intervention (after poor performance on a formative objective structured clinical examination and written exams mid-fourth year) were significantly more likely to obtain an improved mark on end-of-fourth year summative written (p = 0.005) and OSCE (p = 0.001) exams compared to those students who did not receive remediation.

CONCLUSION

A remedial intervention linked to poor assessment performance predicted improved performance in later examination. There is a need for prospective studies in order to identify the effective components of remedial interventions.

The epidemiology of infertility in the North East of Scotland

BACKGROUND

There is a perception that the prevalence of infertility is on the rise. This study aimed to determine the current prevalence of infertility in a defined geographical population, ascertain changes in self-reported infertility over time and identify risk factors associated with infertility.

METHODS

A postal questionnaire survey of a random population-based sample of women aged 31-50 years was performed in the Grampian region of Scotland. Questions addressed the following areas: pregnancy history, length of time taken to become pregnant each time, whether medical advice had been sought and self-reported exposure to factors associated with infertility.

RESULTS

Among 4466 women who responded, 400 (9.0%) [95% CI 8.1, 9.8] had chosen not to have children. Of the remaining 4066 women, 3283 (80.7%) [95% CI 79.5, 82.0] reported no difficulties in having children and the remaining 783 (19.3%) [95% CI 18.1, 20.5] had experienced infertility, defined as having difficulty in becoming pregnant for more than 12 months and/or seeking medical advice. In total 398 (9.8%) [95% CI 8.9, 10.7] women had primary infertility, 285 (7.0%) [95% CI 6.2, 7.8] had secondary infertility, 100 (2.5%) [95% CI 2.0, 2.9] had primary as well as secondary infertility. A total of 342 (68.7%) and 208 (73.0%) women with primary and secondary infertility, respectively, sought medical advice and 202 (59.1%) and 118 (56.7%) women in each group subsequently conceived. History of pelvic surgery, Chlamydial infection, endometriosis, chemotherapy, long-term health problems and obesity were associated with infertility. In comparison with a similar survey of women aged 46-50 from the same geographical area, the prevalence of both primary infertility (>24 months) [70/1081, (6.5%) versus 68/710 (9.6%) P = 0.02] and secondary infertility [29/1081 (2.7%) versus 40/710 (5.6%) P = 0.002] were significantly lower.

CONCLUSIONS

Nearly one in five women attempting conception sampled in this study experienced infertility, although over half of them eventually conceived. Fertility problems were associated with endometriosis, Chlamydia trachomatis infection and pelvic surgery, as well as obesity, chemotherapy and some long-term chronic medical conditions. There is no evidence of an increase in the prevalence of infertility in this population over the past 20 years.

Systematically missing confounders in individual participant data meta-analysis of observational cohort studies

One difficulty in performing meta-analyses of observational cohort studies is that the availability of confounders may vary between cohorts, so that some cohorts provide fully adjusted analyses while others only provide partially adjusted analyses. Commonly, analyses of the association between an exposure and disease either are restricted to cohorts with full confounder information, or use all cohorts but do not fully adjust for confounding. We propose using a bivariate random-effects meta-analysis model to use information from all available cohorts while still adjusting for all the potential confounders. Our method uses both the fully adjusted and the partially adjusted estimated effects in the cohorts with full confounder information, together with an estimate of their within-cohort correlation. The method is applied to estimate the association between fibrinogen level and coronary heart disease incidence using data from 154 012 participants in 31 cohorts.† Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

High efficiency, multi-Watt CW yellow emission from an intracavity-doubled self-Raman laser using Nd:GdVO4

Efficient multi-Watt continuous-wave (CW) yellow emission at 586.5 nm is demonstrated through intracavity frequency-doubling of a Nd:GdVO(4) self-Raman laser pumped at 880 nm. 2.51 W of CW yellow emission with an overall diode-to-yellow conversion efficiency of 12.2% is achieved through the use of a 20 mm long Nd:GdVO(4) self-Raman crystal and an intracavity mirror which facilitates collection of yellow emission generated within the resonator, and reduces thermal loading of the laser crystal.

Factors contributing to the time taken to consult with symptoms of lung cancer: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

To determine what factors are associated with the time people take to consult with symptoms of lung cancer, with a focus on those from rural and socially deprived areas.

METHODS

A cross-sectional quantitative interview survey was performed of 360 patients with newly diagnosed primary lung cancer in three Scottish hospitals (two in Glasgow, one in NE Scotland). Supplementary data were obtained from medical case notes. The main outcome measures were the number of days from (1) the date participant defined first symptom until date of presentation to a medical practitioner; and (2) the date of earliest symptom from a symptom checklist (derived from clinical guidelines) until date of presentation to a medical practitioner.

RESULTS

179 participants (50%) had symptoms for more than 14 weeks before presenting to a medical practitioner (median 99 days; interquartile range 31-381). 270 participants (75%) had unrecognised symptoms of lung cancer. There were no significant differences in time taken to consult with symptoms of lung cancer between rural and/or deprived participants compared with urban and/or affluent participants. Factors independently associated with increased time before consulting about symptoms were living alone, a history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and longer pack years of smoking. Haemoptysis, new onset of shortness of breath, cough and loss of appetite were significantly associated with earlier consulting, as were a history of chest infection and renal failure.

CONCLUSION

For many people with lung cancer, regardless of location and socioeconomic status, the time between symptom onset and consultation was long enough to plausibly affect prognosis. Long-term smokers, those with COPD and/or those living alone are at particular risk of taking longer to consult with symptoms of lung cancer and practitioners should be alert to this.

Ankle brachial index combined with Framingham Risk Score to predict cardiovascular events and mortality: a meta-analysis

CONTEXT

Prediction models to identify healthy individuals at high risk of cardiovascular disease have limited accuracy. A low ankle brachial index (ABI) is an indicator of atherosclerosis and has the potential to improve prediction.

OBJECTIVE

To determine if the ABI provides information on the risk of cardiovascular events and mortality independently of the Framingham risk score (FRS) and can improve risk prediction.

DATA SOURCES

Relevant studies were identified. A search of MEDLINE (1950 to February 2008) and EMBASE (1980 to February 2008) was conducted using common text words for the term ankle brachial index combined with text words and Medical Subject Headings to capture prospective cohort designs. Review of reference lists and conference proceedings, and correspondence with experts was conducted to identify additional published and unpublished studies.

STUDY SELECTION

Studies were included if participants were derived from a general population, ABI was measured at baseline, and individuals were followed up to detect total and cardiovascular mortality.

DATA EXTRACTION

Prespecified data on individuals in each selected study were extracted into a combined data set and an individual participant data meta-analysis was conducted on individuals who had no previous history of coronary heart disease.

RESULTS

Sixteen population cohort studies fulfilling the inclusion criteria were included. During 480,325 person-years of follow-up of 24,955 men and 23,339 women, the risk of death by ABI had a reverse J-shaped distribution with a normal (low risk) ABI of 1.11 to 1.40. The 10-year cardiovascular mortality in men with a low ABI (< or = 0.90) was 18.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 13.3%-24.1%) and with normal ABI (1.11-1.40) was 4.4% (95% CI, 3.2%-5.7%) (hazard ratio [HR], 4.2; 95% CI, 3.3-5.4). Corresponding mortalities in women were 12.6% (95% CI, 6.2%-19.0%) and 4.1% (95% CI, 2.2%-6.1%) (HR, 3.5; 95% CI, 2.4-5.1). The HRs remained elevated after adjusting for FRS (2.9 [95% CI, 2.3-3.7] for men vs 3.0 [95% CI, 2.0-4.4] for women). A low ABI (< or = 0.90) was associated with approximately twice the 10-year total mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and major coronary event rate compared with the overall rate in each FRS category. Inclusion of the ABI in cardiovascular risk stratification using the FRS would result in reclassification of the risk category and modification of treatment recommendations in approximately 19% of men and 36% of women.

CONCLUSION

Measurement of the ABI may improve the accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction beyond the FRS.

Excising basal cell carcinomas: comparing the performance of general practitioners, hospital skin specialists and other hospital specialists

BACKGROUND

General practitioners (GPs) are not encouraged to excise basal cell carcinomas (BCCs). Despite this, as many of 10% of BCCs may be excised by GPs. GPs may be able to have a greater role in the diagnosis and management of BCC, but much needs to be learnt before this can be advocated.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the practice of GPs, skin specialists (dermatologists and plastic surgeons) and other hospital specialists in excising BCCs.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of all BCCs excised in the Grampian region between 1 January and 31 December 2005 was carried out In total, 1087 reports were rated for source, quality of clinical information provided and extent of excision.

RESULTS

GPs perform significantly less well than skin specialists when diagnosing and excising BCCs, but appear equal in diagnostic skill and better at excision than other hospital specialists. Non-specialized GPs appear to perform as well as GPs with special interest (GPwSI) in adequately excising BCCs. In 18.7% of all cases, the information supplied to the pathologist with the biopsy sample was inadequate to draw a conclusion.

CONCLUSIONS

GPs compare unfavourably with skin specialists in diagnosing and excising BCCs. The performance of nonspecialized GPs does not appear to differ markedly from that of GPwSI. There is considerable room to optimize current GP performance, particularly with lesions of the head and neck, and it may be that novel approaches to GP training are required to achieve this. Structured request forms may improve the quality of clinical information provided when skin biopsies are submitted for pathological examination.

Secondary prevention clinics for coronary heart disease: a 10-year follow-up of a randomised controlled trial in primary care

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the effects of nurse-led secondary prevention clinics for coronary heart disease (CHD) in primary care on total mortality and coronary event rates after 10 years.

DESIGN

Follow-up of a randomised controlled trial by review of national datasets.

SETTING

Stratified random sample of 19 general practices in northeast Scotland.

PARTICIPANTS

Original study cohort of 1343 patients, aged <80 years, with a working diagnosis of CHD, but without dementia or terminal illness and not housebound.

INTERVENTION

Nurse-led secondary prevention clinics promoted medical and lifestyle aspects of secondary prevention and offered regular follow-up for 1 year,

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Total mortality and coronary events (non-fatal myocardial infarctions (MIs) and coronary deaths).

RESULTS

Mean (SD) follow-up was at 10.2 (0.19) years. No significant differences in total mortality or coronary events were found at 10 years. 254 patients in the intervention group and 277 patients in the control group had died: cumulative death rates were 38% and 41%, respectively (p = 0.177). 196 coronary events occurred in the intervention group and 195 in the control group: cumulative event rates were 29.1% and 29.1%, respectively (p = 0.994). When Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, adjusted for age, sex and general practice, was used, proportional hazard ratios were 0.88 (0.74 to 1.04) for total mortality and 0.96 (0.79 to 1.18) for coronary death or non-fatal MI. No significant differences in the distribution of cause of death classifications was found at either 4 or 10 years.

CONCLUSIONS

After 10 years, differences between groups were no longer significant. Total mortality survival curves for the intervention and control groups had not converged, but the coronary event survival curves had. Possibly, therefore, the earlier that secondary prevention is optimised, the less likely a subsequent coronary event is to prove fatal.

Unemployment and deprivation are associated with a poorer outcome following percutaneous coronary angioplasty

This prospective observational study aimed to assess the impact of employment status and deprivation on quality of life 12 months after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Patients completed a questionnaire at baseline and at 1 year follow-up including a health utility score (EQ-5D), symptoms and employment status. Deprivation was assessed using the Carstairs' deprivation category based on area postcodes. The majority (79.6%) of patients of working age returned to work within 12 months. Unemployment was associated with a lower quality of life (QoL) at baseline (0.49 (0.32) vs 0.61 (0.27), p=0.002) and less improvement in QoL 1 year after PCI (0.15 (0.37) vs 0.26 (0.31), p<0.012). Furthermore, unemployed patients had significantly less improvement in chest pain score (p=0.002) and breathlessness (p<0.001). Unemployed patients from the most deprived areas had lowest QoL at follow-up and least improvement in QoL at 1 year. Unemployment and deprivation are associated with poorer outcomes following PCI.

Obstetric Outcomes in Cancer Survivors

OBJECTIVE

To assess obstetric and neonatal outcomes in women with a prior episode of cancer.

METHODS

Data were obtained from a linkage between the Scottish Cancer Registry and routinely collected data from Scottish maternity hospitals. Obstetric outcomes in a first pregnancy which ended between 1980 and 2005 were compared in 917 women with, and 5,496 women without, a previous history of cancer.

RESULTS

The mean age at delivery was 29 years (standard deviation 5.66) and 26 years (standard deviation 5.62) in the exposed and unexposed groups respectively (P<.001). Multiple logistic regression showed that cancer survivors had higher rates of postpartum hemorrhage (odds ratio [OR] 1.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09-2.23) and operative or assisted delivery (abdominal or vaginal) (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.14- 1.54). Preterm delivery (at less than 37 weeks of gesation) was also found to be higher in this group compared with non-cancer women (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.01-1.76).

CONCLUSION

While largely reassuring to women intending to become pregnant after surviving cancer, the results indicate areas of increased risk that require additional surveillance.

Influence of socioeconomic status on clinical outcomes and quality of life after percutaneous coronary intervention

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether socioeconomic status (SES) influences clinical outcomes and quality of life after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).

DESIGN

Prospective observational study.

SETTING

Two interventional cardiac centres.

PARTICIPANTS

1346 consecutive patients undergoing PCI over a 12-month period.

OUTCOMES

Self reported health-related quality of life (HRQoL; EuroQol-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D); EuroQol Visual Analogue Scale (EQ-VAS)), repeat angiography, revascularisation, hospital admission, myocardial infarction and death within 12 months, by SES derived using postal address code.

MAIN RESULTS

No significant differences were found between patients with high and low SES in the occurrence of repeat angiography (p = 0.55), repeat revascularisation (PCI, p = 0.81, CAEG, p = 0.27), total cardiac hospitalisation (p = 0.10), myocardial infarction (p = 0.97) or death 12 months after PCI (p = 0.88). Non-procedure-related readmissions were higher in patients with low SES (18.6% v 13.7%; p = 0.025). After adjustment for confounding factors, patients with low SES had lower HRQoL scores at baseline (95% CI for difference 0.01 to 0.14; p = 0.003) and at 12 months (95% CI 0.07 to 0.17; p<0.001) compared with those with high SES.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical outcomes were similar for patients in different SES groups. Patients with low SES had considerably more non-procedure-related readmissions and lower quality-of-life scores. Future studies on HRQoL after coronary revascularisation should take account of these important differences related to SES.