A review of recent advances and future prospects in calculation of reference evapotranspiration in Bangladesh using soft computing models

Evapotranspiration (ETo) is a complex and non-linear hydrological process with a significant impact on efficient water resource planning and long-term management. The Penman-Monteith (PM) equation method, developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), represents an advancement over earlier approaches for estimating ETo. Eto though reliable, faces limitations due to the requirement for climatological data not always available at specific locations. To address this, researchers have explored soft computing (SC) models as alternatives to conventional methods, known for their exceptional accuracy across disciplines. This critical review aims to enhance understanding of cutting-edge SC frameworks for ETo estimation, highlighting advancements in evolutionary models, hybrid and ensemble approaches, and optimization strategies. Recent applications of SC in various climatic zones in Bangladesh are evaluated, with the order of preference being ANFIS > Bi-LSTM > RT > DENFIS > SVR-PSOGWO > PSO-HFS due to their consistently high accuracy (RMSE and R2). This review introduces a benchmark for incorporating evolutionary computation algorithms (EC) into ETo modeling. Each subsection addresses the strengths and weaknesses of known SC models, offering valuable insights. The review serves as a valuable resource for experienced water resource engineers and hydrologists, both domestically and internationally, providing comprehensive SC modeling studies for ETo forecasting. Furthermore, it provides an improved water resources monitoring and management plans.

Flood hazard potential evaluation using decision tree state-of-the-art models

Floods occur frequently in Romania and throughout the world and are one of the most devastating natural disasters that impact people's lives. Therefore, in order to reduce the potential damages, an accurate identification of surfaces susceptible to flood phenomena is mandatory. In this regard, the quantitative calculation of flood susceptibility has become a very popular practice in the scientific research. With the development of modern computerized methods such as geographic information system and machine learning models, and as a result of the possibility of combining them, the determination of areas susceptible to floods has become increasingly accurate, and the algorithms used are increasingly varied. Some of the most used and highly accurate machine learning algorithms are the decision tree models. Therefore, in the present study focusing on flood susceptibility zonation mapping in the Trotus River basin, the following algorithms were applied: forest by penalizing attribute-weights of evidence (forest-PA-WOE), best first decision tree-WOE, alternating decision tree-WOE, and logistic regression-WOE. The best performant, characterized by a maximum accuracy of 0.981, proved to be forest-PA-WOE, whereas in terms of flood exposure, an area of over 16.22% of the Trotus basin is exposed to high and very high floods susceptibility. The performances applied models in the present work are higher than the models applied in the previous studies in the same study area. Moreover, it should be noted that the accuracy of the models is similar with the accuracies of the decision tree models achieved in the studies focused on other areas across the world. Therefore, we can state that the models applied in the present research can be successfully used in by the researchers in other case studies. The findings of this research may substantially map the flood risk areas and further aid watershed managers in limiting and remediating flood damage in the data-scarce regions. Moreover, the results of this study can be a very useful for the hazard management and planning authorities.

Land subsidence susceptibility mapping: a new approach to improve decision stump classification (DSC) performance and combine it with four machine learning algorithms

Land subsidence is a worldwide threat. In arid and semiarid lands, groundwater depletion is the main factor that induce the subsidence resulting in environmental damages and socio-economic issues. To foresee and prevent the impact of land subsidence, it is necessary to develop accurate maps of the magnitude and evolution of the subsidences. Land subsidence susceptibility maps (LSSMs) provide one of the effective tools to manage vulnerable areas and to reduce or prevent land subsidence. In this study, we used a new approach to improve decision stump classification (DSC) performance and combine it with machine learning algorithms (MLAs) of naïve Bayes tree (NBTree), J48 decision tree, alternating decision tree (ADTree), logistic model tree (LMT), and support vector machine (SVM) in land subsidence susceptibility mapping (LSSSM). We employ data from 94 subsidence locations, among which 70% were used to train learning hybrid models and the other 30% were used for validation. In addition, the models' performance was assessed by ROC-AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, odd ratio, root-mean-square error (RMSE), kappa, frequency ratio, and F-score techniques. A comparison of the results obtained from the different models reveals that the new DSC-ADTree hybrid algorithm has the highest accuracy (AUC = 0.983) in preparing LSSSMs as compared to other learning models such as DSC-J48 (AUC = 0.976), DSC-NBTree (AUC = 0.959), DSC-LMT (AUC = 0.948), DSC-SVM (AUC = 0.939), and DSC (AUC = 0.911). The LSSSMs generated through the novel scientific approach presented in our study provide reliable tools for managing and reducing the risk of land subsidence.

Spatio-temporal assessment of water quality of a tropical decaying river in India for drinking purposes and human health risk characterization

River water pollution and water-related health problems are common issues across the world. The present study aims to examine the Jalangi River's water quality to assess its suitability for drinking purposes and associated human health risks. The 34 water samples were collected from the source to the mouth of Jalangi River in 2022 to depict the spatial dynamics while another 119 water samples (2012-2022) were collected from a secondary source to portray the seasonal dynamics. Results indicate better water quality in the lower reach of the river in the monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. Principal component analysis reveals that K+, NO3-, and total alkalinity (TA) play a dominant role in controlling the water quality of the study region, while, CaCO3, Ca2+, and EC in the pre-monsoon, EC, TDS, Na+, and TA in the monsoon, and EC, TDS and TA in the post-monsoon controlled the water quality. The results of ANOVA reveal that BOD, Ca2+, and CaCO3 concentrations in water have significant spatial dynamics, whereas pH, BOD, DO, Cl-, SO42-, Na+, Mg2+, Ca2+, CaCO3, TDS, TA, and EC have seasonal dynamics (p < 0.05). The water quality index depicts that the Jalangi River's water quality ranged from 6.23 to 140.83, i.e., excellent to unsuitable for drinking purposes. Human health risk analysis shows that 32.35% of water samples have non-carcinogenic health risks for all three groups of people, i.e., adults, children, and infants while only 5.88% of water samples have carcinogenic health risks for adults and children. The gradual decay of the Jalangi River coupled with the disposal of urban and agricultural effluents induces river pollution that calls for substantial attention from the various stakeholders to restore the water quality.

Land subsidence susceptibility mapping: comparative assessment of the efficacy of the five models

Land subsidence (LS) as a major geological and hydrological hazard poses a major threat to safety and security. The various triggers of LS include intense extraction of aquifer bodies. In this study, we present an LS inventory map of the Daumeghan plain of Iran using 123 LS and 123 non-LS locations which were identified through field survey. Fourteen LS causative factors related to topography, geology, hydrology, and anthropogenic characteristics were selected based on multi-collinearity test. Based on the results, five susceptibility maps were generated employing models and input data. The LS susceptibility models were evaluated and validated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and statistical indices. The results indicate that the LS susceptibility maps produced have good accuracy in predicting the spatial distribution of LS in the study area. The result showed that the optimization models BA and GWO were better than the other machine learning algorithm (MLA). In addition, The BA model has 96.6% area under of ROC (AUROC) followed by GWO (95.8%), BART (94.5%), BRT (93.1%), and SVR (92.7%). The LS susceptibility maps formulated in our study can serve as a useful tool for formulating mitigation strategies and for better land-use planning.

Retraction Note: Weather indicators and improving air quality in association with COVID-19 pandemic in India

[This retracts the article DOI: 10.1007/s00500-021-06012-9.].

Optimizing machine learning algorithms for spatial prediction of gully erosion susceptibility with four training scenarios

Gully erosion causes high soil erosion rates and is an environmental concern posing major risk to the sustainability of cultivated areas of the world. Gullies modify the land, shape new landforms, and damage agricultural fields. Gully erosion mapping is essential to understand the mechanism, development, and evolution of gullies. In this work, a new modeling approach was employed for gully erosion susceptibility mapping (GESM) in the Golestan Dam basin of Iran. The measurements of 14 gully erosion (GE) factors at 1042 GE locations were compiled in a spatial database. Four training datasets comprised of 100%, 75%, 50%, and 25% of the entire database were used for modeling and validation (for each data set in the common 70:30 ratio). Four machine learning models-maximum entropy (MaxEnt), general linear model (GLM), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN)- were employed to check the usefulness of the four training scenarios. The results of random forest (RF) analysis indicated that the most important GE effective factors were distance from the stream, elevation, distance from the road, and vertical distance of the channel network (VDCN). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) was used to validate the results. Our study showed that the sample size influenced the performance of the four machine learning algorithms. However, the ANN had a lower sensitivity to the reduction of sample size. In addition, validation results revealed that ANN (AUROC = 0.85.7-0.90.4%) had the best performance based on all four sample data sets. The results of this research can be useful and valuable guidelines for choosing machine learning methods when a complete gully inventory is not available in a region.

Weather indicators and improving air quality in association with COVID-19 pandemic in India

The COVID-19 pandemic enforced nationwide lockdown, which has restricted human activities from March 24 to May 3, 2020, resulted in an improved air quality across India. The present research investigates the connection between COVID-19 pandemic-imposed lockdown and its relation to the present air quality in India; besides, relationship between climate variables and daily new affected cases of Coronavirus and mortality in India during the this period has also been examined. The selected seven air quality pollutant parameters (PM₁₀, PM_2.5, CO, NO₂, SO₂, NH₃, and O₃) at 223 monitoring stations and temperature recorded in New Delhi were used to investigate the spatial pattern of air quality throughout the lockdown. The results showed that the air quality has improved across the country and average temperature and maximum temperature were connected to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. This outcomes indicates that there is no such relation between climatic parameters and outbreak and its associated mortality. This study will assist the policy maker, researcher, urban planner, and health expert to make suitable strategies against the spreading of COVID-19 in India and abroad.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00500-021-06012-9.

Flood susceptibility evaluation through deep learning optimizer ensembles and GIS techniques

It is difficult to predict and model with an accurate model the floods, that are one of the most destructive risks across the earth's surface. The main objective of this research is to show the prediction power of three ensemble algorithms with respect to flood susceptibility estimation. These algorithms are: Iterative Classifier Optimizer - Alternating Decision Tree - Frequency Ratio (ICO-ADT-FR), Iterative Classifier Optimizer - Deep Learning Neural Network - Frequency Ratio (ICO-DLNN-FR) and Iterative Classifier Optimizer - Multilayer Perceptron - Frequency Ratio (ICO-MLP-FR). The first stage of the manuscript consisted of the collection and processing of the geodatabase needed in the present study. The geodatabase comprises a number of 14 flood predictors and 132 known flood locations. The Correlation-based Feature Selection (CFS) method was used in order to assess the prediction capacity of the 14 predictors in terms of flood susceptibility estimation. The training and validation of the three ensemble models constitute the next stage of the scientific workflow. Several statistical metrics and ROC curve method were involved in the evaluation of the model's performance and accuracy. According to ROC curves all the models achieved high performances since their AUC had values above 0.89. ICO-DLNN-FR proved to be the most accurate model (AUC = 0.959). The outcomes of the study can be used to guide future flood risk management and sustainable land-use planning in the designated area.

Flood vulnerability of a few areas in the foothills of the Western Ghats: a comparison of AHP and F-AHP models

Flooding is one of the most destructive natural catastrophes that can strike anywhere in the world. With the recent, but frequent catastrophic flood events that occurred in the narrow stretch of land in southern India, sandwiched between the Western Ghats and the Arabian Sea, this study was initiated. The goal of this research is to identify flood-vulnerable zones in this area by making the local self governing bodies as the mapping unit. This study also assessed the predictive accuracy of analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy-analytical hierarchy process (F-AHP) models. A total of 20 indicators (nine physical-environmental variables and 11 socio-economic variables) have been considered for the vulnerability modelling. Flood-vulnerability maps, created using remotely sensed satellite data and geographic information systems, was divided into five zones. AHP and F-AHP flood vulnerability models identified 12.29% and 11.81% of the area as very high-vulnerable zones, respectively. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is used to validate these flood vulnerability maps. The flood vulnerable maps, created using the AHP and F-AHP methods, were found to be outstanding based on the area under the ROC curve (AUC) values. This demonstrates the effectiveness of these two models. The results of AUC for the AHP and F-AHP models were 0.946 and 0.943, respectively, articulating that the AHP model is more efficient than its chosen counterpart in demarcating the flood vulnerable zones. Decision-makers and land-use planners will find the generated vulnerable zone maps useful, particularly in implementing flood mitigation plans.

Have any effect of COVID-19 lockdown on environmental sustainability? A study from most polluted metropolitan area of India

The long-term lockdown due to COVID-19 has beneficial impact on the natural environment. India has enforced a lockdown on 24th March 2020 and was subsequently extended in various phases. The lockdown due to the sudden spurt of the COVID-19 pandemic has shown a significant decline in concentration of air pollutants across India. The present article dealt with scenarios of air quality concentration of air pollutants, and effect on climatic variability during the COVID-19 lockdown period in Kolkata Metropolitan Area, India. The result showed that the air pollutants are significantly reduced and the air quality index (AQI) was improved during the lockdown months. Aerosol concentrations decreased by - 54.94% from the period of pre-lockdown. The major air pollutants like particulate matters (PM_2.5, PM₁₀), sulphur dioxide (SO₂), carbon monoxide (CO) and Ozone (O₃) were observed the maximum reduction ( - 40 to  - 60%) in the COVID-19 lockdown period. The AQI has been improved by 54.94% in the lockdown period. On the other hand, Sen's slope rank and the Mann-Kendal trend test showed the daily decreased of air pollutants rate is  - 0.051 to  - 1.586 μg /m3. The increasing trend of daily minimum, average, and maximum temperature from the month of March to May in this year (2020s) are 0.091, 0.118, and 0.106 °C which is lowest than the 2016s to 2019s trend. Therefore, this research has an enormous opportunity to explain the effects of the lockdown on air quality and climate variability, and it can also be helpful for policymakers and decision-makers to enact appropriate measures to control air pollution.

Optimization modelling to establish false measures implemented with ex-situ plant species to control gully erosion in a monsoon-dominated region with novel in-situ measurements

Water dominated gullies formation and associated land degradation are the foremost challenges among the planners for sustainability and optimization of land resources. This type of hazardous phenomenon is utmost vulnerable due to huge loss of surface soil in the sub-tropical developing countries like India. The present study has been carried out in rugged badland topography of Garhbeta-I Community Development (C.D.) Block in eastern India for assessing the gully erosion susceptibility (GES) mapping and optimization of land use planning. The GES mapping is the first and foremost steps towards minimization this adverse affect and attaining sustainable development. In this study we also describe the importance of plantation and alternation of ex-situ tree species with in-situ species for minimizes the erosional activity. To meet our research goal here we used two prediction based machine learning algorithm (MLA) namely random forest (RF) and boosted regression tree (BRT) and one optimization model of Ecogeography based optimization (EBO). The research study also carried out by using a total of 199, in which 139 (70%) and 60 (30%) gully head-cut points were used for training and validation purposes respectively and treated as dependent factors, and twenty gully erosion conditioning factors as independent variables. These models are validated through receiver operating characteristics-area under the curve (ROC-AUC), accuracy (ACC), precision (PRE) and Kappa coefficient index analysis. The validation result showed that EBO model with the highest values of AUC-0.954, ACC-0.85, PRE-0.877 and Kappa-0.646 is the most accurate model for GES followed by BRT and RF. The outcome results should help for the sustainable development of this rugged badland topography.

Comparison of multi-criteria and artificial intelligence models for land-subsidence susceptibility zonation

Land subsidence (LS) in arid and semi-arid areas, such as Iran, is a significant threat to sustainable land management. The purpose of this study is to predict the LS distribution by generating land subsidence susceptibility models (LSSMs) for the Shahroud plain in Iran using three different multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) and five different artificial intelligence (AI) models. The MCDM models we used are the VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija IKompromisno Resenje (VIKOR), Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and Complex Proportional Assessment (COPRAS), and the AI models are the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), Cubist, Elasticnet, Bayesian multivariate adaptive regression spline (BMARS) and conditional random forest (Cforest) methods. We used the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, Area Under Curve (AUC) and different statistical indices,i.e. accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, F score, Kappa, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Criteria (NSC)to validate and evaluate the methods. Based on the different validation techniques, the Cforest method yielded the best results with minimum and maximum values of 0.04 and 0.99, respectively. According to the Cforest model, 30.55% of the study area is extremely vulnerable to land subsidence. The results of our research will be of great help to planners and policy makers in the identification of the most vulnerable regions and the implementation of appropriate development strategies in this area.

Prediction of landslide susceptibility in Rudraprayag, India using novel ensemble of conditional probability and boosted regression tree-based on cross-validation method

The present research examines the landslide susceptibility in Rudraprayag district of Uttarakhand, India using the conditional probability (CP) statistical technique, the boost regression tree (BRT) machine learning algorithm, and the CP-BRT ensemble approach to improve the accuracy of the BRT model. Using the four fold of data, the models' outcomes were cross-checked. The locations of existing landslides were detected by general field surveys and relevant records. 220 previous landslide locations were obtained, presented as an inventory map, and divided into four folds to calibrate and authenticate the models. For modelling the landslide susceptibility, twelve LCFs (landslide conditioning factors) were used. Two statistical methods, i.e. the mean absolute error (MAE) and the root mean square error (RMSE), one statistical test, i.e. the Freidman rank test, as well as the receiver operating characteristic (ROC), efficiency and precision were used for authenticating the produced landslide models. The results of the accuracy measures revealed that all models have good potential to recognize the landslide susceptibility in the Garhwal Himalayan region. Among these models, the ensemble model achieved a higher accuracy (precision: 0.829, efficiency: 0.833, AUC: 89.460, RMSE: 0.069 and MAE: 0.141) than the individual models. According to the outcome of the ensemble simulations, the BRT model's predictive accuracy was enhanced by integrating it with the statistical model (CP). The study showed that the areas of fallow land, plantation fields, and roadsides with elevations of more than 1500 m. with steep slopes of 24° to 87° and eroding hills are highly susceptible to landslides. The findings of this work could help in minimizing the landslides' risk in the Western Himalaya and its adjoining areas with similar landscapes and geological characteristics.

Optimization of state-of-the-art fuzzy-metaheuristic ANFIS-based machine learning models for flood susceptibility prediction mapping in the Middle Ganga Plain, India

This study is an attempt to quantitatively test and compare novel advanced-machine learning algorithms in terms of their performance in achieving the goal of predicting flood susceptible areas in a low altitudinal range, sub-tropical floodplain environmental setting, like that prevailing in the Middle Ganga Plain (MGP), India. This part of the Ganga floodplain region, which under the influence of undergoing active tectonic regime related subsidence, is the hotbed of annual flood disaster. This makes the region one of the best natural laboratories to test the flood susceptibility models for establishing a universalization of such models in low relief highly flood prone areas. Based on highly sophisticated flood inventory archived for this region, and 12 flood conditioning factors viz. annual rainfall, soil type, stream density, distance from stream, distance from road, Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), altitude, slope aspect, slope, curvature, land use/land cover, and geomorphology, an advanced novel hybrid model Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), and three metaheuristic models-based ensembles with ANFIS namely ANFIS-GA (Genetic Algorithm), ANFIS-DE (Differential Evolution), and ANFIS-PSO (Particle Swarm Optimization), have been applied for zonation of the flood susceptible areas. The flood inventory dataset, prepared by collected flood samples, were apportioned into 70:30 classes to prepare training and validation datasets. One independent validation method, the Area-Under Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) Curve, and other 11 cut-off-dependent model evaluation metrices have helped to conclude that the ANIFS-GA has outperformed other three models with highest success rate AUC = 0.922 and prediction rate AUC = 0.924. The accuracy was also found to be highest for ANFIS-GA during training (0.886) & validation (0.883). Better performance of ANIFS-GA than the individual models as well as some ensemble models suggests and warrants further study in this topoclimatic environment using other classes of susceptibility models. This will further help establishing a benchmark model with capability of highest accuracy and sensitivity performance in the similar topographic and climatic setting taking assumption of the quality of input parameters as constant.

Predicting the deforestation probability using the binary logistic regression, random forest, ensemble rotational forest, REPTree: A case study at the Gumani River Basin, India

Rapid population growth and its corresponding effects like the expansion of human settlement, increasing agricultural land, and industry lead to the loss of forest area in most parts of the world especially in such highly populated nations like India. Forest canopy density (FCD) is a useful measure to assess the forest cover change in its own as numerous works of forest change have been done using only FCD with the help of remote sensing and GIS. The coupling of binary logistic regression (BLR), random forest (RF), ensemble of rotational forest and reduced error pruning trees (RTF-REPTree) with FCD makes it more convenient to find out the deforestation probability. Advanced vegetation index (AVI), bare soil index (BSI), shadow index (SI), and scaled vegetation density (VD) derived from Landsat imageries are the main input parameters to identify the FCD. After preparing the FCDs of 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2017 the deforestation map of the study area was prepared and considered as dependent parameter for deforestation probability modelling. On the other hand, twelve deforestation determining factors were used to delineate the deforestation probability with the help of BLR, RF and RTF-REPTree models. These deforestation probability models were validated through area under curve (AUC), receiver operating characteristics (ROC), efficiency, true skill statistics (TSS) and Kappa co-efficient. The validation result shows that all the models like BLR (AUC = 0.874), RF (AUC = 0.886) and RTF-REPTree (AUC = 0.919) have good capability of assessing the deforestation probability but among them, RTF-REPTree has the highest accuracy level. The result also shows that low canopy density area i.e. not under the dense forest cover has increased by 9.26% from 1990 to 2017. Besides, nearly 30% of the forested land is under high to very high deforestation probable zone, which needs to be protected with immediate measures.

A novel ensemble computational intelligence approach for the spatial prediction of land subsidence susceptibility

Land subsidence (LS) is a significant problem that can cause loss of life, damage property, and disrupt local economies. The Semnan Plain is an important part of Iran, where LS is a major problem for sustainable development and management. The plain represents the changes occurring in 40% of the country. We introduce a novel-ensemble intelligence approach (called ANN-bagging) that uses bagging as a meta- or ensemble-classifier of an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict LS spatially on the Semnan Plain in Semnan Province, Iran. The ensemble model's goodness-of-fit (to training data) and prediction accuracy (of the validation data) are compared to benchmarks set by ANN-bagging. A total of 96 locations of LS and 12 LS conditioning factors (LSCFs) were collected. Each feature in the LS inventory map (LSIM) was randomly assigned to one of four groups or folds, each comprising 25% of cases. The novel ensemble model was trained using 75% (3 folds) and validated with the remaining 25% (1 fold) in a four-fold cross-validation (CV) system, which is used to control for the effects of the random selection of the training and validation datasets. LSCFs for LS prediction were selected using the information-gain ratio and multi-collinearity test methods. Factor significance was evaluated using a random forest (RF) model. Groundwater drawdown, land use and land cover, elevation, and lithology were the most important LSCFs. Using the k-fold CV approaches, twelve LS susceptibility maps (LSSMs) were prepared as each fold employed all three models (ANN-bagging, ANN, and bagging). The LS susceptibility mapping showed that between 5.7% and 12.6% of the plain had very high LS susceptibility. All three models produced LS susceptibility maps with acceptable prediction accuracies and goodness-of-fits, but the best maps were produced by the ANN-bagging ensemble method. Overall, LS risk was highest in agricultural areas with high groundwater drawdown in the flat lowlands on quaternary sediments (Qcf). Groundwater extraction rates should be monitored and potentially limited in regions of severe or high LS susceptibility. This investigation details a novel methodology that can help environmental planners and policy makers to mitigate LS to help achieve sustainability.

Machine Learning-Based Gully Erosion Susceptibility Mapping: A Case Study of Eastern India

Gully erosion is a form of natural disaster and one of the land loss mechanisms causing severe problems worldwide. This study aims to delineate the areas with the most severe gully erosion susceptibility (GES) using the machine learning techniques Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosted Regression Tree (GBRT), Naïve Bayes Tree (NBT), and Tree Ensemble (TE). The gully inventory map (GIM) consists of 120 gullies. Of the 120 gullies, 84 gullies (70%) were used for training and 36 gullies (30%) were used to validate the models. Fourteen gully conditioning factors (GCFs) were used for GES modeling and the relationships between the GCFs and gully erosion was assessed using the weight-of-evidence (WofE) model. The GES maps were prepared using RF, GBRT, NBT, and TE and were validated using area under the receiver operating characteristic(AUROC) curve, the seed cell area index (SCAI) and five statistical measures including precision (PPV), false discovery rate (FDR), accuracy, mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean squared error (RMSE). Nearly 7% of the basin has high to very high susceptibility for gully erosion. Validation results proved the excellent ability of these models to predict the GES. Of the analyzed models, the RF (AUROC = 0.96, PPV = 1.00, FDR = 0.00, accuracy = 0.87, MAE = 0.11, RMSE = 0.19 for validation dataset) is accurate enough for modeling and better suited for GES modeling than the other models. Therefore, the RF model can be used to model the GES areas not only in this river basin but also in other areas with the same geo-environmental conditions.

Evaluation of Recent Advanced Soft Computing Techniques for Gully Erosion Susceptibility Mapping: A Comparative Study

Gully erosion is a problem; therefore, it must be predicted using highly accurate predictive models to avoid losses caused by gully development and to guarantee sustainable development. This research investigates the predictive performance of seven multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM), statistical, and machine learning (ML)-based models and their ensembles for gully erosion susceptibility mapping (GESM). A case study of the Dasjard River watershed, Iran uses a database of 306 gully head cuts and 15 conditioning factors. The database was divided 70:30 to train and verify the models. Their performance was assessed with the area under prediction rate curve (AUPRC), the area under success rate curve (AUSRC), accuracy, and kappa. Results show that slope is key to gully formation. The maximum entropy (ME) ML model has the best performance (AUSRC = 0.947, AUPRC = 0.948, accuracy = 0.849 and kappa = 0.699). The second best is the random forest (RF) model (AUSRC = 0.965, AUPRC = 0.932, accuracy = 0.812 and kappa = 0.624). By contrast, the TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) model was the least effective (AUSRC = 0.871, AUPRC = 0.867, accuracy = 0.758 and kappa = 0.516). RF increased the performance of statistical index (SI) and frequency ratio (FR) statistical models. Furthermore, the combination of a generalized linear model (GLM), and functional data analysis (FDA) improved their performances. The results demonstrate that a combination of geographic information systems (GIS) with remote sensing (RS)-based ML models can successfully map gully erosion susceptibility, particularly in low-income and developing regions. This method can aid the analyses and decisions of natural resources managers and local planners to reduce damages by focusing attention and resources on areas prone to the worst and most damaging gully erosion.

Novel ensembles of COPRAS multi-criteria decision-making with logistic regression, boosted regression tree, and random forest for spatial prediction of gully erosion susceptibility

Gully erosion is considered as a severe environmental problem in many areas of the world which causes huge damages to agricultural lands and infrastructures (i.e. roads, buildings, and bridges); however, gully erosion modeling and prediction with high accuracy are still difficult due to the complex interactions of various factors. The objective of this research was to develop and introduce three new ensemble models, which were based on Complex Proportional Assessment of Alternatives (COPRAS), Logistic Regression (LR), Boosted Regression Tree (BRT), Random Forest (RF), and Frequency Ratio (FR) for spatial prediction of gully erosion with a case study at the Najafabad watershed (Iran). For this purpose, a total of 290 head-cut of gullies and 17 conditioning factors were collected and used to establish a geospatial database. Subsequently, FR was used to determine the spatial relationship between the conditioning factors and the head-cut of gullies, whereas RF, BRT, and LR were used to quantify the relative importance of these factors. In the next step, three ensemble gully erosion models, named COPRAS-FR-RF, COPRAS-FR-BRT, and COPRAS-FR-LR were developed and verified. The Success Rate Curve (SRC), and the Prediction Rate Curve (PRC) and their areas under the curves (AUC) were used to check the performance of the three proposed models. The result showed that Soil group, geomorphology, and drainage density factors played the key role on the occurrence of the gully erosion. All the three models have very high degree-of-fit and the prediction performance, the COPRAS-FR-RF model (AUC-SRC = 0.974 and AUC-PRC = 0.929), the COPRAS-FR-BRT model (AUC-SRC = 0.973 and AUC-PRC = 0.928), and the COPRAS-FR-LR model (AUC-SRC = 0.972 and AUC-PRC = 0.926); therefore, it is concluded that they are efficient and new powerful tools which could be used for predicting gully erosion in prone-areas.

A comparison of statistical methods and multi-criteria decision making to map flood hazard susceptibility in Northern Iran

In north of Iran, flood is one of the most important natural hazards that annually inflict great economic damages on humankind infrastructures and natural ecosystems. The Kiasar watershed is known as one of the critical areas in north of Iran, due to numerous floods and waste of water and soil resources, as well as related economic and ecological losses. However, a comprehensive and systematic research to identify flood-prone areas, which may help to establish management and conservation measures, has not been carried out yet. Therefore, this study tested four methods: evidential belief function (EBF), frequency ratio (FR), Technique for Order Preference by Similarity To ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and Vlse Kriterijumsk Optimizacija Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) for flood hazard susceptibility mapping (FHSM) in this area. These were combined in two methodological frameworks involving statistical and multi-criteria decision making approaches. The efficiency of statistical and multi-criteria methods in FHSM were compared by using area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve, seed cell area index and frequency ratio. A database containing flood inventory maps and flood-related conditioning factors was established for this watershed. The flood inventory maps produced included 132 flood conditions, which were randomly classified into two groups, for training (70%) and validation (30%). Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) indicated that slope, distance to stream and land use/land cover are of key importance in flood occurrence in the study catchment. In validation results, the EBF model had a better prediction rate (0.987) and success rate (0.946) than FR, TOPSIS and VIKOR (prediction rate 0.917, 0.888, and 0.810; success rate 0.939, 0.904, and 0.735, respectively). Based on their frequency ratio and seed cell area index values, all models except VIKOR showed acceptable accuracy of classification.

GIS-based groundwater potential mapping in Shahroud plain, Iran. A comparison among statistical (bivariate and multivariate), data mining and MCDM approaches

In arid and semi-arid areas, groundwater resource is one of the most important water sources by the humankind. Knowledge of groundwater distribution over space, associated flow and basic exploitation measures can play a significant role in planning sustainable development, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. Groundwater potential mapping (GWPM) fits in this context as the tool used to predict the spatial distribution of groundwater. In this research we tested four GIS-based models for GWPM, consisting of: i) random forest (RF); ii) weight of evidence (WoE); iii) binary logistic regression (BLR); and iv) technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) multi-criteria. The Shahroud plain located in Iran, was selected to research the water scarcity and over-exploitation of groundwater resources over the past 20 years. In this research, using Iranian Department of Water Resources Management data, and extensive field surveys, 122 groundwater well data with high potential yield of ≥11 m³ h^-1 were selected for GWPM. Specifically, we generated four different models selecting 70% (n = 85) of the wells and validated the resulting GWP maps upon the complementary 30% (n = 37).A total of fifteen ground water conditioning factors to explain the groundwater well distribution over the Shahroud plain were selected. From the Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS), a DEM (30 m resolution) was extracted to calculate a set of morphometric properties which were combined with thematic ones such as land use/land cover (LU/LC) and Soil Type (ST). Results show that in RF (LU/LC), LR (ST), and AHP (Slope) are the most relevant contributors to groundwater occurrence. After that, using the natural break method, final maps were divided into five susceptibility classes of very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The accuracy of models was ultimately tested using prediction rate (validation data), success rate (training data) and the seed cell area index (SCAI) indicators. Results of validation show that BLR with prediction rate of 0.905 (90.5%) and success rate of 0.918 (91.8%) had higher accuracy than WoE, RF and TOPSIS models with respective prediction rates of 0.885, 0.873 and 0.870 (88.5%, 87.3%, and 87%) and success rate of 0.900, 0.889, and 0.881 (90%, 88.9%, and 88.1%). SCAI results show that all models have acceptable classification accuracy although BLR outperformed the other models in terms of accuracy. Results show that the combination of remote sensing (RS) data and geographic information system (GIS) with new approaches can be used as a powerful tool in GWPM in arid and semi-arid areas. The results of this investigation introduced a potential novel methodology that could be used by decision-makers for the sustainable management of ground water resources.

Gully erosion zonation mapping using integrated geographically weighted regression with certainty factor and random forest models in GIS

Every year, gully erosion causes substantial damage to agricultural land, residential areas and infrastructure, such as roads. Gully erosion assessment and mapping can facilitate decision making in environmental management and soil conservation. Thus, this research aims to propose a new model by combining the geographically weighted regression (GWR) technique with the certainty factor (CF) and random forest (RF) models to produce gully erosion zonation mapping. The proposed model was implemented in the Mahabia watershed of Iran, which is highly sensitive to gully erosion. Firstly, dependent and independent variables, including a gully erosion inventory map (GEIM) and gully-related causal factors (GRCFs), were prepared using several data sources. Secondly, the GEIM was randomly divided into two groups: training (70%) and validation (30%) datasets. Thirdly, tolerance and variance inflation factor indicators were used for multicollinearity analysis. The results of the analysis corroborated that no collinearity exists amongst GRCFs. A total of 12 topographic, hydrologic, geologic, climatologic, environmental and soil-related GRCFs and 150 gully locations were used for modelling. The watershed was divided into eight homogeneous units because the importance level of the parameters in different parts of the watershed is not the same. For this purpose, coefficients of elevation, distance to stream and distance to road parameters were used. These coefficients were obtained by extracting bi-square kernel and AIC via the GWR method. Subsequently, the RF-CF integrated model was applied in each unit. Finally, with the units combined, the final gully erosion susceptibility map was obtained. On the basis of the RF model, distance to stream, distance to road and land use/land cover exhibited a high influence on gully formation. Validation results using area under curve indicated that new GWRCFRF approach has a higher predictive accuracy 0.967 (96.7%) than the individual models of CF 0.763 (76.3%) and RF 0.776 (77.6%) and the CF-RF integrated model 0.897 (89.7%). Thus, the results of this research can be used by local managers and planners for environmental management.